06-14-2020, 06:52 PM
(06-14-2020, 01:46 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:(06-14-2020, 10:18 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: It is better that people have diminished expectations during a Crisis Era.
This one depends on perspective. S&H predicted the crisis always had more effect than was believed possible going in. The Revolution saw us achieve total independence from Britain. The Civil Was saw us ending slavery. The Great Depression and World War II saw us with government regulation of the economy and a role as world policeman. These were only dreams before the trigger.
Diminished expectations imply that people know that they will not get what they want -- or even be able to seek what they sought (easy money from speculative activity) in the 3T. People are best off to expect reduced income, higher prices, higher taxes, and less consumer choice in return for creating a better, more just, and more sustainable world. Many people will have to decide that soft work in a government or corporate bureaucracy will not be available -- so learn a trade or start a business and do some real good for Humanity if you don;t want to be a prole.
Quote:I see the conflict between the old and new values as having been well defined by the unravelling debates. The old values have or are taking major hits. The Tea Party has made it difficult for establishment Republicans to get near the White House, and even that has lost its champion in Trump. The protesters are giving the racist faction a black eye. Those that believe they can ignore problems and live in a no science daydream of small government and low taxes are having to confront the virus. If you count September 11 and Bush 43’s neocolonialism for teaching lessons learned, you have the Neo Cons discredited and the reluctance to put boots on the ground confirming the traditional desire to avoid war.
Indeed. The Tea Party has pushed conspiracy theories over workable solutions. In a 4T one needs to think outside the box that people constructed in a 3T. That box is rotting or grinding into dust anyway.
Quote:So in terms of wiping out the old values, this crisis is not a dud. It has the potential to succeed completely when the high tradition of stomping on the old values comes around. The conservative ideas of supporting slaves, kings and avoiding foreign entanglements got wiped out. The current set of old values looks similarly disastrous.
I didn't say that it was a dud. Its consequences may disappoint people and prove extremely inconvenient. It will change the world in ways in which it must change. It will solve some problems, but much of the problem is that we have been getting away with some very bad behavior:
Fifteen years old now as a video, but it catches part of the spirit of the 3T quite well. "Big Box Mart" is becoming a dreary grind.
Quote:Now, I remain dubious of adding more ideas to the crisis. The economy does look to end up in a mess. Environmentalism may be left for the back burner until the new prophets find their voice. That I cannot see yet.
The New Deal called its model of environmentalism "conservation". The economy will be a mess. As I see it there will be far fewer well-paid white-collar jobs. There will be need for teachers, nurses, cops, accountants, engineers, and research scientists as in usual times. Retailing seems likely to shrink... and I do not mean 'inventory shrinkage' in the sense of clothes shrinking from XL to M or inventory being filched to a greater extent. The model of retailers depending upon impulse purchases to make a profit will disappear. People will make rational choices involving budgeting, and the impulse purchases will no longer subsidize low prices. Maybe salesmanship will return as a part of retailing; getting people to pay full retail for what they used to get at a discount will be trickier -- and necessary -- to keep retail in operation. (But people happier with what they get because they are more convinced of its usefulness and applicability to its purpose will allow people to live better with less stuff). People will keep stuff longer because it was a better idea to purchase it in the first place... which will mean that less stuff ends up going into the landfill unless it wears out or is unfit to repair. And, yes, after the shopping malls go, "Big Box Mart" is next.
Hey -- one cornerstone of environmentalism is that people consume less. Less material consumption might mean less resource depletion and fewer greenhouse gases.
We could again be a nation of savers instead of spenders on binges on credit cards. Real prosperity is not needing status symbols.
Even without a war we are going to have much damage from neglect to undo with "brownfield" construction.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.