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The Lichtman Keys
#11
Let's see how 1992 shaped up, when Bill Clinton turned out George H.W.Bush

Key

1
Party Mandate
After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. FALSE The Republicans lost 10 seats in 1990 compared to 1986.

2
Contest
There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. FALSE. Pat Buchanan did well in the New Hampshire primary.

3
Incumbency
The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. TRUE

4
Third party
There is no significant third party or independent campaign. FALSE Ross Perot

5
Short-term economy
The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. FALSE. It was the economy, stupid.

6
Long-term economy
Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. FALSE

7
Policy change
The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. FALSE Bush was mainly a veto president. He broke his promise and raised taxes.

8
Social unrest
There is no sustained social unrest during the term. FALSE? Rodney King uprising

9
Scandal
The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. TRUE

10
Foreign/military failure
The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. TRUE

11
Foreign/military success
The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. TRUE. Fall of the Soviet Empire and the Berlin Wall. Panama invasion a costly though successful adventure. The Gulf War was a quick and easy victory.

12
Incumbent charisma
The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE

13
Challenger charisma
The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. FALSE. Bill Clinton was one of the most effective and charming political campaigners ever, who showed great empathy for people.

8 or 9 false Keys. Bush lost.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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Messages In This Thread
The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:02 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:16 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by pbrower2a - 09-30-2020, 03:56 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:30 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:39 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:48 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-20-2020, 12:20 AM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-05-2020, 06:22 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-05-2020, 05:12 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 03:57 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 04:15 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 05:05 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 05:21 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 05:32 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 05:57 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by pbrower2a - 09-29-2020, 10:29 AM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 09-29-2020, 07:36 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by pbrower2a - 09-30-2020, 11:54 AM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 09-30-2020, 03:03 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 10-01-2020, 12:21 AM

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