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The Lichtman Keys
#13
How about 1948, when Truman upset Dewey

Key

1
Party Mandate
After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. FALSE. The Democrats lost the House.

2
Contest
There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. TRUE

3
Incumbency
The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. TRUE

4
Third party
There is no significant third party or independent campaign. FALSE. Strom Thurmond and Henry Wallace

5
Short-term economy
The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. TRUE

6
Long-term economy
Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. TRUE

7
Policy change
The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. FALSE. Conservatives blocked his proposals.

8
Social unrest
There is no sustained social unrest during the term. TRUE

9
Scandal
The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. TRUE

10
Foreign/military failure
The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. FALSE. Beginning of the Cold War.

11
Foreign/military success
The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. TRUE. Victory in World War II.

12
Incumbent charisma
The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. TRUE. Give 'em hell, Harry.

13
Challenger charisma
The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. TRUE, Dewey was boring.

4 False Keys, not enough to turn out the Democrats.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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Messages In This Thread
The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:02 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:16 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by pbrower2a - 09-30-2020, 03:56 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:30 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:39 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:48 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-20-2020, 12:20 AM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-05-2020, 06:22 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-05-2020, 05:12 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 03:57 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 04:15 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 05:05 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 05:21 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 05:32 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 05:57 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by pbrower2a - 09-29-2020, 10:29 AM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 09-29-2020, 07:36 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by pbrower2a - 09-30-2020, 11:54 AM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 09-30-2020, 03:03 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 10-01-2020, 12:21 AM

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