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The Lichtman Keys
#14
How did Lichtman decide in favor of Gore, in Bush v. Gore 2000?

Key

1
Party Mandate
After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. TRUE. Republicans lost 4 seats compared to their 1994 win.

2
Contest
There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. FALSE, Sen. Bill Bradley challenged Vice President Gore.

3
Incumbency
The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. FALSE

4
Third party
There is no significant third party or independent campaign. FALSE. Ralph Nader (Green) and Pat Buchanan (Reform).

5
Short-term economy
The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. TRUE

6
Long-term economy
Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. TRUE

7
Policy change
The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. TRUE, I think, since Clinton achieved a balanced budget and a surplus for the first time in decades. This helped bring prosperity to the nation. He did get some gun control passed in his first term, and free trade agreements.

8
Social unrest
There is no sustained social unrest during the term. TRUE

9
Scandal
The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. FALSE. Lewinsky Affair led to impeachment.

10
Foreign/military failure
The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. TRUE, although some might cite the Al Qaeda bombings of the Africa embassies in 1998 and Clinton's failure to knock out bin Laden and co.

11
Foreign/military success
The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. TRUE. Clinton reversed the Serbian invasions with no American casualties. Democracy was restored in Haiti. In first term, a middle east agreement, although it broke down in the second.

12
Incumbent charisma
The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE

13
Challenger charisma
The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. TRUE, although he was appealing to his half of the nation and had a high horoscope score. But many people agreed he was kind of tacky and not that smart.

Only 5 false Keys. Close call, with some doubtful true keys. Gore won the popular vote, but for the first time since 1988, the electoral college went the other way in favor of Bush-- thanks largely to vote purging and other cheating by the Florida election board under Katharine Harris, the butterfly ballot fiasco, hanging chads, and a partisan decision by the Supreme Court to stop the recount.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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Messages In This Thread
The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:02 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:16 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by pbrower2a - 09-30-2020, 03:56 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:30 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:39 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:48 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-20-2020, 12:20 AM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-05-2020, 06:22 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-05-2020, 05:12 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 03:57 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 04:15 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 05:05 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 05:21 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 05:32 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 05:57 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by pbrower2a - 09-29-2020, 10:29 AM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 09-29-2020, 07:36 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by pbrower2a - 09-30-2020, 11:54 AM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 09-30-2020, 03:03 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 10-01-2020, 12:21 AM

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