We be Mega-3T; we are entering a Mega-4T.

[Bob Butler 54]

(07-28-2020, 11:48 AM)Einzige Wrote: I don't even think it's going to be a 'failed' 4T, tho. I think this is just what happens when you have a 4T in the midst of a Megacyclical.3T. Society splinters and frays further, setting the stage for the time of civilizational crisis just around the corner.

Any event that does not cause a transition to the new values big time is obviously at best a catalyst and definitely not the trigger. People keep confusing the two and thereby rendering the S&H theory meaningless.

(07-28-2020, 11:48 AM)Einzige Wrote: Every Crisis echoes its Megasaeculum. The Civil War was a phenomenon of regime consolidation, befitting a Mega-1T. The Second World War was a total war ideological struggle, as one would expect in a Mega-2T. This crisis is  multifaceted, relatively mellow but full of events which don't really seem to gel into any coherent narrative, with what people have identified as a "Phone Fourth" preceding it - a pretty good candidate for the crisis of a mega-3T. The problems of this saeculum cannot be resolved as neatly as in the 4T of another Megaturning; we have to have our Megacrisis after all.

Again, any pattern observed in the Industrial Age becomes questionable in the Information Age. For democracies, crisis wars are not going to happen. Transitions are likely to occur through protests and legislation. Look at the last awakening for an example. Autocracies? Even there the people are hoping the non violent protests will eventually be heard. It is not clear to me that they will.