03-02-2017, 05:02 PM
(03-02-2017, 04:47 PM)David Horn Wrote: We're in, if not an unprecedented period, a period of unusual dynamics. Inflation is extremely low, growth is good though not spectacular, and the job market is finally tightening. The economy has had the longest period without a recession or even a mild downturn in decades. Under conditions like these, the smart money tends to see the future as one of two things, a bubble waiting to burst or a recession in the offing. Yet the smart money is betting big. Of course, the smart money bet big under GWB too.
Color me dubious. If the bull market continues another year, I'll be shocked. If it continues another 60 days without a large correction, I might be a bit scared.
I, too, am dubious. Both the economic expansion and the bull market are getting "long in the tooth." Trump's herculean task is to "keep the ball rolling," which he may well succeed in doing--at least in the short run. Here's what he's up against in terms of timing:
"Current U.S. Economic Recovery May End Up as Longest Ever" [And note that this was written last July.]
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/current...2016-07-18
"Trump Rally Could Mark Biggest Postelection Stock Market Rise Since Hoover" [And, as of yesterday, the Dow is up a stunning 15% since the election..."animal spirits" have apparently been released in the equity markets after a two-year trading range.]
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-r...2016-12-12
The comparison to Hoover is a bit discomforting, to be sure.