The Great Devaluation

[Kinser79]

(03-13-2017, 01:19 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: And getting back to Strauss & Howe's concept of a Great Devaluation...here's a bearish prediction from one of the stock market's hottest technicians.  (His time horizon largely squares with my own.)

Disclaimer: Nothing here should be construed as trading or investment advice.  Consult your financial advisor for guidance:

"Crash guru warns the Dow could plunge to 14,800 — and today’s a date to watch"
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crash-g...2017-03-13

Of course, anyone here who has lived--and invested--for several decades, today's "hot hand" is tomorrow's flameout.  I'm thinking of past market gurus, like Joe Granville with his "on-balance volume" barometer, and Robert Prechter (perma-bear!) with his once-popular Ellliott Wave theory, the latter approach of which still has its practitioners.

What the market technician predicts as a "worst-case" is about a 29% drop in the Dow, hardly a Great Devaluation.  My rhetorical question, should even that bear market come to pass, who will get the blame?  Obama? or Trump?  Which leads to my next question:  At what point will Trump have to shoulder the blame for any recession/bear market that might materialize in 2017-2018?  He has already taken credit for the post-election stock rally, as well as the solid employment report released last Friday.  Is it all "his baby" now?

This article smells of BS.  The stock market is likely due for a correction, but if we're looking at just the stock market then the "Great Recession" ended in the middle of 2009.  Main Street certainly doesn't feel that way.  In fact in many cases Main Street asks "Recovery?  What recovery?"

Indeed had Obama not been running against  an extremely weak GOP candidate he'd likely not been re-elected.  Further that GOP president would have left after 4 years to be replaced by someone else.  Is that fair?  I don't know.  It is what it is.

The simple fact of the matter is that the real economy (you know the one that isn't centered on a couple blocks in NYC) is steadily improving, and that any profit taking on the market would be made right back up.

That being said I've been shorting my stocks since the middle of last year.  Not because I expect a recession but because I expect a market correction.

But do not take what I'm doing as investment advice.