Has the regeneracy arrived?

[Mikebert]

(10-22-2016, 02:21 AM)Einzige Wrote: On the subject of a Regeneracy, it's probably important to bear in mind that, if there's something to the Megacycle theory and we're in the closing years of a Megaunraveling (with 1789-1865/76 as a Megahigh and 1865/76-1945 as a Megaawakening), there may not be a big Regeneracy this time. The Unraveling exists in opposite and inverted proportion to the High, at a time of "falling demand for social order". My bet is that the Crises of Megaunravelings see the weakest Regeneracies and the Crises of Megaawakenings the strongest Regeneracies.

Doesn't mean there won't be one, but that it may be so subtle that we'll be arguing about whether it actually happened for a long time. Hell, it may have already happened.

That probably means whoever's unlucky enough to live eighty years from now will find themselves with a jackboot on the back of their neck.

(Conversely, the Crises of Megaunravelings may be the mildest Crises of any of the cycle - it's pretty obvious that nothing we've faced in the last decade has come close to those faced by people in the late eighteenth century or the middle nineteenth century or the thirties and forties of the last century - and the Highs of Megaunravelings the most stable and orderly Highs, with a peak but falling demand for order. That is, the "American High" of the fifties and early sixties might be the most obvious High for centuries to come.)

In other words, in order of their intensity:

First Turnings:
Megaunraveling (Most stable - high supply of social order, falling demand)
Megahigh
Megaawakening
Megacrisis (Least stable - Rising demand for social order, lowest supply)

Second Turning:
Megacrisis (Most intense - Rising demand and supply of social order)
Megaunraveling
Megahigh
Megaawakening (Least intense - Falling demand and supply of social order)

Third Turning:
Megaawakening (Most stable - Falling demand and supply of social order)
Megacrisis
Megaunraveling
Megahigh (Least stable - Falling supply of social order, highest demand)

Fourth Turning:
Megahigh (Most intense - Lowest supply of social order, highest demand)
Megaawakening
Megacrisis
Megaunraveling (Least intense - highest supply and demand of social order)

The most stable Highs are in a Megaunraveling (1945-64), the least stable Highs are in a Megacrisis (starting in the late 2020s or early 2030s),  the most intense Awakenings are in a Megacrisis (the 2040s?), the least intense Awakenings are in a Megaawakening (~1896-~1912), the most stable Unravelings are in a Megaawakening (1912 or thereabouts to 1929), the least stable Unravelings are in a Megahigh (the late 1840s and 1850s), the most intense Crises are in a Megahigh (the Civil War), and the least intense Crises are, ironically, in a Megacrisis (by which time social cohesion will be through the roof owing to the turmoils of prior decades - think of the genteel warfare of the Revolutionary and Napoleonic eras) and Megaunraveling (does the current era seem really existentially urgent in an immediate sense?).

There is nothing to Megacycle theory.  Of more interest would be your political thoughts on the current saeculum.