Has the regeneracy arrived?

[SomeGuy]

Mike,

The 2001 recession was shallow enough (despite the "jobless recovery", something which started happening in the early '90s) and the real estate bubble followed sufficiently soon thereafter, that people didn't really notice the deviation (which, as I remember from the chart you posted, was quite small at that time) until 2008.

I also think that trying to force a direct one-to-one comparison with the 1930s via your political cycle is a bit misguided.  History rhymes, it doesn't repeat.

Also, M & T had the peak of the 17th k-wave in 1914, and in their book postulated a 19th k-wave peak around 2030.  This would put us no earlier than 1900, if we're going to do it like that.  In the Berlusconi thread, I gave an argument for why the high-growth/deconcentration/coalition-building bit should be started no later than the mid-90s, and that the k-wave should peak around 2020-2025.  This would place us more in the 1905-1910 range.  If I am not mistaken, Turchin has the peak of civil unrest occurring in 2020.  So, all in all, I am still more inclined to a Crisis climax starting around 2020.