01-09-2017, 09:19 PM
(01-09-2017, 07:32 PM)Mikebert Wrote:(01-09-2017, 09:21 AM)SomeGuy Wrote: Also, M & T had the peak of the 17th k-wave in 1914, and in their book postulated a 19th k-wave peak around 2030. This would put us no earlier than 1900, if we're going to do it like that. In the Berlusconi thread, I gave an argument for why the high-growth/deconcentration/coalition-building bit should be started no later than the mid-90s, and that the k-wave should peak around 2020-2025. This would place us more in the 1905-1910 range. If I am not mistaken, Turchin has the peak of civil unrest occurring in 2020. So, all in all, I am still more inclined to a Crisis climax starting around 2020.
You got me confused here now. I was getting my dates from the leadership cycle deconcentration dates of 1873-1914 for the last cycle and 2000-2025 (proj) for this cycle. We are roughly 3/4 of the way through so that works out to ca 1895.
2030 - 2016 = 14
1914 - 14 = 1900
If we do it your way, using 2000 to 2025, 16 / 25 = 64% complete.
1914 - 1873 = 41, and 41 * .64 = 26.24, and 1873 + 26.24 gives 1899.24.
Either way, I think we're taking the idea of historical parallels past the point of ridiculousness, but suit yourself.