01-09-2017, 09:34 PM
Quote:If this is interest rates should have been rising since around 2000. They haven't. Also we should be seeing inflation, actually lots of it given all the money creation. Also strong growth. These are all hallmarks of the rising portion of the K-wave. None of this has happened.
Excuse me, but M & T explicitly based their measures on production rates of selected industries, NOT on price. The fact that they use the same term as a measure based on consumer price/interest rate cycles (which you acknowledge has broken down) is regrettable but not relevant to THEIR predictions. You have this irritating habit of conflating your pet composite theories with the ones put forth by people like M & T and S & H, then when YOUR predictions prove false claim that this invalidates the people you are borrowing from. Their predictions may prove true or not, but they can only be invalidated on their own terms.
Quote:This is correct, and it occupies the same point in the cycle as the peak in 1920. There was little unrest in 1940's, which would correspond to the last 4T climax. So this doesn't match either.
*Shrugs*
Don't follow him closely. And his cycles don't seem to line up with any of the others. Although, you know, there was a fair amount of unrest during the PREVIOUS 4T, so there is that.
Quote:What exactly is your view of a ca. 2020 climax based on? It seems to be based on your opinion. Is that it?
My expectations for the FUTURE? Yeah, pretty much speculation, at least until my crystal ball gets out of the shop. The sum total of my reading leads me to expect something dramatic in the 2020s, and has for some time. And my observations of politics/international affairs haven't disabused me of it yet.