Has the regeneracy arrived?

[Mikebert]

Jordan Wrote:Mike, I literally just reread the book.  All of the dates are based on 1) naval tonnage, and 2) Corroboration from production figures for selected "leading" industries

You referred to the 2030 date as a K-wave “peak”.  This implies 1792 was a railroad K-wave peak.  What production figures were peaking in 1792?  
 

Quote:Once again, the fact you have some "revised" M & T model that claims that a new leadership model started in the 90s and that the IT revolution doesn't count as a k-wave because *cue a bunch of shit about interest rates and prices ported from some other model you've read* is not really relevant to M & T's predictions.

You made an assertion of a “K-wave peak” in 2020-5.  That assertion carries assumptions about prices and interest rates.  This is not my definition, is it a core element of the K-wave concept. Are you sure M&T used the term “peak” wrt to the K-wave?  My recollection was that they used the K-wave in a much looser sense, like some scholars refer to “Kondratieffs” without going into any more detail. I do not think those dates were intended by the authors to be confused with standard K-wave peaks.  Certainly not anything on which to build predictions.
 

Quote:I perceive differently.  I view China's agenda-setting (switch from a command economy to capitalism, rapprochement with the US vs the Soviet Union, subsequent retooling of their military after viewing the Gulf War and the Taiwan Strait Crisis) as beginning in the 1970s and ending in the mid-90s.  

Why would these things characteristic of an agenda-setting era? The Soviet Union was doing similar things in the 1930’s.