We Need Militant Nationalism

[Bob Butler 54]

(07-17-2017, 02:36 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(07-17-2017, 01:36 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I'm not even sure the cycles are on track just now.  We may be stuck in the unraveling pendulum......
I don't feel the pushing of cultures on other cultures wise.  I've certainly seen lots of evidence / examples of folk who don't want to be pushed and others who want to push.  I see 1T highs occurring when one culture has proven its new memes in a crisis, when the culture and government are firmly in the hands of victors.  The way the pendulum is swinging, it is not clear we will have the clear victor.

It is never clear during a 4T if we will have a clear victor. That's why it's a crisis. Only after the "regeneracy" and the climax does a resolution occur; usually at the very end of the 4T. It is likely this time that a clear victor will emerge only after the mid-2020s.
Remember too that our times are most like the 1850s, than like any S&H-recognized crisis years. The 1850s featured indecisive presidents and failed attempts at compromise, with increasing tension and violence without any resolution. I consider the 1850s to be the early 4T years of the Civil War Crisis, and that we are in a similar position as then in a double-rhythm saeculum cycle. 
I also note that the 1850s were going pretty well economically, powered by the virtual dawn of the industrial age in several advanced countries including the USA, with Britain and Belgium having been the pioneers starting in the 1780s. This industrial boom continued during and right after the Civil War. The next 8 years or so may see a similar economic boom powered by green energy as well as by the advancing information age, although the latter was pioneered in the USA in the 1960s and expanded in the 80s and 90s. In other words, the Civil War did not break out due to an economic crisis, despite a short panic in 1857; and we can expect the same regarding whatever breaks out in the mid-2020s.

At least during the Industrial Era, once the regeneracy comes, once the government commits to a policy, the climax has followed in their favor.  The United States and Britain are rich and powerful nations.  It might take them years to accomplish their goals, but they tend to get there.  Yes, there were certainly bleak times in the Revolution, Civil War and World War II, but in those times we have pushed through.

That might have something to do with why the four stroke S&H cycles holds firmly for Industrial Age Western Anglo-American cultures, less so for everyone else.

I'm less convinced that the Civil War pattern will repeat.  In many ways that crisis manifested the triumph of the Industrial Age pattern.  I see lots of reasons to anticipate a shift to a post scarcity or information age pattern.  The implications may not all be clear yet.