Three Shoot Downs

[Bob Butler 54]

There have in recent decades been three ‘accidental’ shoot downs of civilian airliners.  One was a while back, by a US cruiser, over the Gulf, while they were exchanging fire with Iranian gunboats.  Another was apparently by a Russian proxy acting in Ukraine of a Malaysian aircraft.  Recently, it seems likely Iran hit a Ukrainian civilian jet.

The US took open responsibility for their shutdown.  It turns out that the USS Vincennes had earned the nick name “Robo Cruiser”, a name that implied a gung ho aggressive attitude which resulted in their being energetic and a little free with their weapons.  I remember the captain and attitude getting a lot of flack after the shoot down.  It is understandable, though.  For them, it was a shooting war… so they shot.

It makes me have just a bit more sympathy for the other two shoot downs.  Not enough sympathy.  The civilians on those aircraft were quite innocent.  But if a US Navy ship in a shooting peace can get undisciplined and run weapons free, can you expect Russian proxy forces and Iranian air defense to be free of a similar attitude?  I suspect that the higher officials even in the autocratic states of Russia and Iran did not deliberately order the shoot downs, but they did seek out a violent aggressive attitude by those who wielded the rockets, an attitude which did not serve the big shots well.  It seems the shoot down of civilians is an unfortunate but inevitable result of engaging in proxy wars.

Naturally, the autocratic states denied responsibility in public.  So long as they send the guys that fired the rockets to Siberia or the desert somewhere.  Autocratic regimes may not admit responsibility, but I do not doubt their ability to apply punishments.

[Skabungus]

The minute I heard a civilian jet dropped out of the air in Iran in the midst of the missile attack on American bases I assumed it was a jumpy Iranian SAM battery suspecting what they should naturally expect in such a scenario: American jets coming to bomb Iranian targets.  I didn't entertain other possibilities like American jets actually penetrating Iranian airspace to take out Iranian planes, or ISIS or other non-state actors trying to capitalize on the situation.  

It seems pretty simple.  I've never been in the military, or had any experience in a shooting war, but I've done a lot of crisis scenario simulations and emergency response simulations, and played a good amount of paintball.  In all cases jumpy actors are common, even with extensive training to prevent such mistakes.  Friendly fire and targeting mistakes remain common problems.

[pbrower2a]

(01-10-2020, 09:27 AM)Skabungus Wrote: The minute I heard a civilian jet dropped out of the air in Iran in the midst of the missile attack on American bases I assumed it was a jumpy Iranian SAM battery suspecting what they should naturally expect in such a scenario: American jets coming to bomb Iranian targets.  I didn't entertain other possibilities like American jets actually penetrating Iranian airspace to take out Iranian planes, or ISIS or other non-state actors trying to capitalize on the situation.  

It seems pretty simple.  I've never been in the military, or had any experience in a shooting war, but I've done a lot of crisis scenario simulations and emergency response simulations, and played a good amount of paintball.  In all cases jumpy actors are common, even with extensive training to prevent such mistakes.  Friendly fire and targeting mistakes remain common problems.

1. You do not fire missiles in the range of a major airport if the airspace near that airport is safe. Commercial jetliners are not fair game. 

2. I expect Iran to make an example of anyone culpable -- enough lashes to bring someone almost to the point of insensibility followed by a particularly brutal form of hanging (the wretch is raised by a crane and allowed to dangle and slowly strangle). 

3. Airspace around large-scale commercial airports such as JFK, Orly, and Narita is very closely watched. 

4. The regular Iranian armed services seem ill-trained. Far too much emphasis is put on the Revolutionary Guards necessary for stifling dissent in Iran.

[Eric the Green]

(01-10-2020, 09:27 AM)Skabungus Wrote: The minute I heard a civilian jet dropped out of the air in Iran in the midst of the missile attack on American bases I assumed it was a jumpy Iranian SAM battery suspecting what they should naturally expect in such a scenario: American jets coming to bomb Iranian targets.  I didn't entertain other possibilities like American jets actually penetrating Iranian airspace to take out Iranian planes, or ISIS or other non-state actors trying to capitalize on the situation.  

It seems pretty simple.  I've never been in the military, or had any experience in a shooting war, but I've done a lot of crisis scenario simulations and emergency response simulations, and played a good amount of paintball.  In all cases jumpy actors are common, even with extensive training to prevent such mistakes.  Friendly fire and targeting mistakes remain common problems.

This would not have happened if Trump has not assassinated General Soleilmani. Iran is to blame too for not restricting air travel in such a dangerous time. It's a very sad thing.

[Classic-Xer]

(01-10-2020, 03:56 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(01-10-2020, 09:27 AM)Skabungus Wrote: The minute I heard a civilian jet dropped out of the air in Iran in the midst of the missile attack on American bases I assumed it was a jumpy Iranian SAM battery suspecting what they should naturally expect in such a scenario: American jets coming to bomb Iranian targets.  I didn't entertain other possibilities like American jets actually penetrating Iranian airspace to take out Iranian planes, or ISIS or other non-state actors trying to capitalize on the situation.  

It seems pretty simple.  I've never been in the military, or had any experience in a shooting war, but I've done a lot of crisis scenario simulations and emergency response simulations, and played a good amount of paintball.  In all cases jumpy actors are common, even with extensive training to prevent such mistakes.  Friendly fire and targeting mistakes remain common problems.

This would not have happened if Trump has not assassinated General Soleilmani. Iran is to blame too for not restricting air travel in such a dangerous time. It's a very sad thing.

The dude wouldn't be dead if he had not spent a decade waging a covert war against American troops/ American interests in Iraq. You don't think 600 American soldiers dead and many more wounded ( The most recent attack killed one American contractor/civilian and wounded three American soldiers) are enough to justify his removal. Well, if death by a thousand cuts is the game they want to play then lets keep playing it like we've been playing it for less than a couple years now. Yes, its unfortunate that Russia sold them the automatic (unmanned) missile guidance system and the mobile launchers and the missiles that most likely shot down the plane. Yes, it's not wise to authorize take off while those missile systems are turned on/active. So, why are liberals so prone to using Iranian propaganda and parroting Iranian terms like assassination and releasing false Iranian information stating that 30 Americans were killed by the counter attack to the American public. Dude, I can be your political competition, your social adversary or your mortal enemy if you and your liberal ilk want to be dumb enough to go there. The choice is yours and I don't really care which one you choose either.

[Bob Butler 54]

At least the same organization does not tend to make the same mistake of this magnitude.  They will instead, of course, invent new mistakes.

But with ISIS at least temporarily defeated, the USA retreating from the conflict and disinvited, and Iran dealing with the scandal, perhaps we will have a pause in the proxy wars.

[Classic-Xer]

(01-10-2020, 03:47 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(01-10-2020, 09:27 AM)Skabungus Wrote: The minute I heard a civilian jet dropped out of the air in Iran in the midst of the missile attack on American bases I assumed it was a jumpy Iranian SAM battery suspecting what they should naturally expect in such a scenario: American jets coming to bomb Iranian targets.  I didn't entertain other possibilities like American jets actually penetrating Iranian airspace to take out Iranian planes, or ISIS or other non-state actors trying to capitalize on the situation.  

It seems pretty simple.  I've never been in the military, or had any experience in a shooting war, but I've done a lot of crisis scenario simulations and emergency response simulations, and played a good amount of paintball.  In all cases jumpy actors are common, even with extensive training to prevent such mistakes.  Friendly fire and targeting mistakes remain common problems.

1. You do not fire missiles in the range of a major airport if the airspace near that airport is safe. Commercial jetliners are not fair game. 

2. I expect Iran to make an example of anyone culpable -- enough lashes to bring someone almost to the point of insensibility followed by a particularly brutal form of hanging (the wretch is raised by a crane and allowed to dangle and slowly strangle). 

3. Airspace around large-scale commercial airports such as JFK, Orly, and Narita is very closely watched. 

4. The regular Iranian armed services seem ill-trained. Far too much emphasis is put on the Revolutionary Guards necessary for stifling dissent in Iran.

So, who is dumb enough to land and takeoff from there now? How many commercial travelers and global site seer's would vote to do that now vs vote to completely avoid doing any of that now? My mother was in Syria when the holy war started again back in the late 90's. I was on the 19th hole when CNN announced that the cease fire between the Palestinians and the Israelis had ended and watched as stuff was being blown up by Hamas and Hezbollah and Israeli forces. I remember the words I said to my friend, " Great, my mom is over there right now". My friend didn't know my mom was over there. I would have said fuck but fuck wasn't appropriate for the place we were in at the time,

[Classic-Xer]

(01-10-2020, 05:47 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: At least the same organization does not tend to make the same mistake of this magnitude.  They will instead, of course, invent new mistakes.

But with ISIS at least temporarily defeated, the USA retreating from the conflict and disinvited, and Iran dealing with the scandal, perhaps we will have a pause in the proxy wars.

Dude, we are not retreating from the conflict because the last time we retreated we all experienced what happened and seen the icky results that occurred afterwards. Why would a liberal academic with a college degree like Obama be stupid enough to enter into a flimsy agreement with a state sponsor of terrorism who was killing and wounding his troops/ forcing his hand and giving him a reason to comply with the government it controls which is ordering him to withdraw all Americans? Why would he be dumb enough to hand over almost two billion in cash to a regime with a long history of doing evil things? The answer is simple, your guy wasn't like our guy now. You see, our guy isn't a product of liberal academia that teaches and practices the value of moving ahead/ advancement by appeasement and giving enemy's what they want to either leave you alone or eventually get what they themselves want out of the deal.

Now, Obama may have had brains and may have been one of the more eloquent speakers as we say but he didn't have the fortitude or knowledge of the hood ( street smarts) or the knowledge of the world that's learned while while doing business throughout the world so to speak which are necessary to be a great American leader like Teddy Roosevelt or someone else equivalent these days. Hmmm,,,You got to admit, he doesn't think very highly of your pesky liberal elites these days and the way they do things and got to where they're at these days I mean isn't the liberal system based on who you know vs what you know these days. BTW, that's a perfect system for mediocre/less knowledgeable, less experienced people to do nothing and flourish these days.

[Ragnarök_62]

(01-10-2020, 03:47 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(01-10-2020, 09:27 AM)Skabungus Wrote: The minute I heard a civilian jet dropped out of the air in Iran in the midst of the missile attack on American bases I assumed it was a jumpy Iranian SAM battery suspecting what they should naturally expect in such a scenario: American jets coming to bomb Iranian targets.  I didn't entertain other possibilities like American jets actually penetrating Iranian airspace to take out Iranian planes, or ISIS or other non-state actors trying to capitalize on the situation.  

It seems pretty simple.  I've never been in the military, or had any experience in a shooting war, but I've done a lot of crisis scenario simulations and emergency response simulations, and played a good amount of paintball.  In all cases jumpy actors are common, even with extensive training to prevent such mistakes.  Friendly fire and targeting mistakes remain common problems.

1. You do not fire missiles in the range of a major airport if the airspace near that airport is safe. Commercial jetliners are not fair game. 

2. I expect Iran to make an example of anyone culpable -- enough lashes to bring someone almost to the point of insensibility followed by a particularly brutal form of hanging (the wretch is raised by a crane and allowed to dangle and slowly strangle). 

3. Airspace around large-scale commercial airports such as JFK, Orly, and Narita is very closely watched. 

4. The regular Iranian armed services seem ill-trained. Far too much emphasis is put on the Revolutionary Guards necessary for stifling dissent in Iran.

(01-10-2020, 03:56 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(01-10-2020, 09:27 AM)Skabungus Wrote: The minute I heard a civilian jet dropped out of the air in Iran in the midst of the missile attack on American bases I assumed it was a jumpy Iranian SAM battery suspecting what they should naturally expect in such a scenario: American jets coming to bomb Iranian targets.  I didn't entertain other possibilities like American jets actually penetrating Iranian airspace to take out Iranian planes, or ISIS or other non-state actors trying to capitalize on the situation.  

It seems pretty simple.  I've never been in the military, or had any experience in a shooting war, but I've done a lot of crisis scenario simulations and emergency response simulations, and played a good amount of paintball.  In all cases jumpy actors are common, even with extensive training to prevent such mistakes.  Friendly fire and targeting mistakes remain common problems.

This would not have happened if Trump has not assassinated General Soleilmani. Iran is to blame too for not restricting air travel in such a dangerous time. It's a very sad thing.

Iran shouldn't trust western institutions like the OPCW now either.
https://medium.com/@caityjohnstone/the-h...32903f22a2

So Drump bombed Syria for no reason at all, the chemical weapons finding was all fake.  So if Iran gets blamed for anything on this crash, they can copy Drump and yell fake news, becase, afterall, nowadays there is lots of fake news going on.  

And a new and updated "Pentagon Papers" for us who are old enough to remember the originals.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/d...nnable-war

And so this another way empires collapse.  They get shot through with lobbying [bribery] and fraud [bribe accepters] which is just part of the corruption at high levels.]

[Bob Butler 54]

(01-10-2020, 07:21 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: Dude, we are not retreating from the conflict because the last time we retreated we all experienced what happened and seen the icky results that occurred afterwards.

I suspect we are out of the region as we have alienated everyone in the region except Israel, and we don't dare base troops there or Israel invite us to do so.  Trump has just alienated everyone, and we are apt to be out for his time in office, however long that may be, however much some like to meddle.

It seems Iran has admitted they did the shoot down.  They of course have blamed the US, but there is quite enough blame to go around.

[Warren Dew]

(01-09-2020, 11:06 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Naturally, the autocratic states denied responsibility in public.

Quote:It seems Iran has admitted they did the shoot down.

Glad you noticed that.  Seems like President Trump's Soleimani killing is not only making Iran too afraid of us to be willing to strike back effectively, it's even making them a bit civilized!

[Classic-Xer]

(01-11-2020, 12:11 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(01-10-2020, 07:21 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: Dude, we are not retreating from the conflict because the last time we retreated we all experienced what happened and seen the icky results that occurred afterwards.

I suspect we are out of the region as we have alienated everyone in the region except Israel, and we don't dare base troops there or Israel invite us to do so.  Trump has just alienated everyone, and we are apt to be out for his time in office, however long that may be, however much some like to meddle.

It seems Iran has admitted they did the shoot down.  They of course have blamed the US, but there is quite enough blame to go around.

I suspect that Trump will make a deal with the Iraqi government to remain in the region. I think we would all agree that we don't want American troops doing the bulk of the fighting and policing in Iraq. I mean which group sounds worse to a typical Iraqi, ISIS or the Iranian backed Shia version of ISIS? Some day, you are going to have to decide whether you are a Democrat/ liberal first or an American first, I've noticed that Democrats are pretty quick to turn against and politicize while Republican presidents are in office. That's a bad habit that Democrats better address internally before slitting their own throats and losing a significant portion of country that it can no longer turn to and rely upon and call upon for help/support during serious times of need. It's really up to Democrats to decide whether they want to become aristocratic or remain Democratic like we are at this point. It's funny, as the liberals speak, I tend to see what the liberals are speaking about and afraid of occurring in America or America eventually becoming like a banana republic or fascist state,

[Bob Butler 54]

(01-11-2020, 05:34 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: Some day, you are going to have to decide whether you are a Democrat/ liberal first or an American first, I've noticed that Democrats are pretty quick to turn against and politicize while Republican presidents  are in office. That's a bad habit that Democrats better address internally before slitting their own throats and losing a significant portion of  country that it can no longer turn to and rely upon and call upon for help/support during  serious times of need. It's really up to Democrats to decide whether they want to become aristocratic or remain Democratic like we are  at this point. It's funny, as the liberals speak, I tend to see what the liberals are speaking about and afraid of occurring in America or America eventually becoming like a banana republic or fascist state,

I have been wondering about the difference.  Let us first say there is a distinction between the Republican Establishment and the rank and file base.  I am talking about the establishment here.

A big difference is that there are Republicans that get locked up.  The Republicans chant about it.  They daydream about locking up liberals.  Yet, it is they that wind up committing crimes and being locked up.  Nixon's third rate burglary.  Bush 43 and company lying about causes of war.  Trump and company abusing power and trying to cover it up...

The base common denominator is that Democrats tend to believe in big government, while Republicans often don't.  If you don't believe in government, what sort of people are you inviting into government?  They do no fit JFK's line.  "Ask not what your country can do for you.  Ask what you can do for your country."  They make no attempt to return value to the people.  The Establishment Republicans get people who want to get close to power so they can abuse it for the sake of themselves and their friends.  

Now this does not imply that the base and some politicians linked to them might honestly believe in small government and small taxes.  Still, you have to balance it against solving real problems.  Some things require the government to step up.  You cannot go absurdly and for too long in either direction.  That is why the progressive time ended with the Great Society, and could very well be why another such progressive time will come again.  

Eventually.

Now the tension between small and big governments is a natural one.  There are abuses in either approach.  It just seems the Republicans do not believe and a few end up behind bars as a result.  The establishment at least has alienated their Tea Party base, and wound up bound tightly to Trump as a result.  They seem ready to ride his lies to their doom.

This does not mean that the Republican base isn't ahead of the Democrats in rejecting those too tightly milking the government, in hanging with the elites.

America was great... during the tax and spend liberal years.  The desire for small government was in part an attempt to shut down the tie between minorities and government.  LBJ tried to buy the black vote, and got instead the Southern Strategy and a decades long check on the progressives.  It is ironic that the War on Poverty was ended, and the generations that followed got aquatinted with poverty.  Related, perhaps?

It should be possible to return to the tax and spend pattern of yesteryear while honoring the limits on the size of government and taxes.  Unfortunately, the pushes in various directions have become toxic.  The conflict between the progressive movement to solve problems and the conservative desire to limit size of government have reached the point where no one seems to be listening to their opposites.  It is more fun to demonize, to indulge in bad characterization and lies.  Trump's lies and a reaction value of truth telling, of valuing fact, may indeed ironically make America great again.  To the degree that extremists hang onto a habit of demonizing their opposites, it will not happen.

[Anthony '58]

Classic-Xer Wrote:
Some day, you are going to have to decide whether you are a Democrat/ liberal first or an American first, I've noticed that Democrats are pretty quick to turn against and politicize while Republican presidents are in office. That's a bad habit that Democrats better address internally before slitting their own throats and losing a significant portion of country that it can no longer turn to and rely upon and call upon for help/support during serious times of need. It's really up to Democrats to decide whether they want to become aristocratic or remain Democratic like we are at this point. It's funny, as the liberals speak, I tend to see what the liberals are speaking about and afraid of occurring in America or America eventually becoming like a banana republic or fascist state


I've been pushing the "Second Cold War liberal" mantra for 27 years - since "2/26," the original attack on the World Trade Center, on February 26, 1993 - and I have attracted at most a corporal's guard of supporters. Many if not most of them can be found on my award-winning (LOL!) blog on facebook, Category 6.

[David Horn]

(01-10-2020, 09:27 AM)Skabungus Wrote: The minute I heard a civilian jet dropped out of the air in Iran in the midst of the missile attack on American bases I assumed it was a jumpy Iranian SAM battery suspecting what they should naturally expect in such a scenario: American jets coming to bomb Iranian targets.  I didn't entertain other possibilities like American jets actually penetrating Iranian airspace to take out Iranian planes, or ISIS or other non-state actors trying to capitalize on the situation.  

It seems pretty simple.  I've never been in the military, or had any experience in a shooting war, but I've done a lot of crisis scenario simulations and emergency response simulations, and played a good amount of paintball.  In all cases jumpy actors are common, even with extensive training to prevent such mistakes.  Friendly fire and targeting mistakes remain common problems.

What you describe is traditionally called the fog of war.  The higher the state of tension, and the shorter the response time available, the more likely incidents like this will occur.

[David Horn]

(01-11-2020, 01:31 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(01-09-2020, 11:06 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Naturally, the autocratic states denied responsibility in public.

…

It seems Iran has admitted they did the shoot down.

Glad you noticed that.  Seems like President Trump's Soleimani killing is not only making Iran too afraid of us to be willing to strike back effectively, it's even making them a bit civilized!

I wouldn't assume that if I was you.  The Iranians have long tentacles, and will certainly flex them at some point.  Right now is probably not the right time, but they won't wait long.