Anyone willing to bet on a devaluation of the dollar when all the debt bubbles burst?

[Mikebert]

[Galen]Under current circumstances, the Fed doing massively stupid things, figuring out what to buy is hard.  The exit strategy is even harder and this is where the Austrian Business Cycle theory has been most helpful.
[Mike]I don't understand.  If the Fed is doing massively stupid things then why would you buy any financial asset?  You wouldn't.  So where's the problem?

[Ragnarök_62]

(06-04-2016, 07:32 AM)Mikebert Wrote: [Mike]I don't understand.  If the Fed is doing massively stupid things then why would you buy any financial asset?  You wouldn't.  So where's the problem?

Maybe he buys the same sort of financial assets I do.  The precious metals complex is a wonderful way to bet against FED stupidity. Btw, the latest and greatest stupid move of the FED is they may do the same stupid thing the ECB is doing.  Negative interest rates. The effect of negative interest rates is close to a floor inflation rate. So... it's party like the 1970's and drive demand forward.  If I see that again, I'd buy lots of toilet paper [Venezuela anyone?] . The goal becomes to get rid of excess currency or accounts denominated in said currency.  I'd start saving in food and water. Pinto beans, rye, millet last a while. I'd certainly do my part to increase demand, but I don't think hoarding is what they have in mind.

[Galen]

(06-04-2016, 07:32 AM)Mikebert Wrote: [Galen]Under current circumstances, the Fed doing massively stupid things, figuring out what to buy is hard.  The exit strategy is even harder and this is where the Austrian Business Cycle theory has been most helpful.
[Mike]I don't understand.  If the Fed is doing massively stupid things then why would you buy any financial asset?  You wouldn't.  So where's the problem?

There are other things to invest in.  Private equity ventures can be profitable but you have to figure out which one.  Depending on the particular Fed and government stupidity will determine what is profitable and for how long.

[Eric the Green]

(06-04-2016, 12:09 AM)Galen Wrote:

(06-03-2016, 05:19 PM)Eric the Obtuse Wrote:

(06-01-2016, 12:59 PM)Galen Wrote: Stupid is really your department.  Yes, it would be so horrific to have a government that left people alone for a change.  Then again you would rather have crooks like Clinton running things.

Let the wealthy and powerful alone so they can run roughshod over the people and the environment for their own gain. That's what you and your libertarian economics does.

I don't see the left doing much about the crony capitalism.  Indeed they seem to be in as in bed with the banks as the Republicans.  Curious that Clinton won't release the speeches that she was paid hundreds of thousands for by Goldman-Sachs.  Bernie is just another economic illiterate.  So not much help there.

(06-03-2016, 05:19 PM)Eric the Obtuse Wrote: I would rather have the people running things.

I would rather people ran their own lives and benefited of suffered the consequences of their own decisions.

Unfortunately people are not isolated individuals, and no (wo)man is an island. We suffer the consequences of others' decisions too, especially their voting decisions, as well as their market decisions.

What the Left is doing is seeking to take money out of politics.

[Galen]

(06-05-2016, 01:34 AM)Eric the Obtuse Wrote:

(06-04-2016, 12:09 AM)Galen Wrote:

(06-03-2016, 05:19 PM)Eric the Obtuse Wrote:

(06-01-2016, 12:59 PM)Galen Wrote: Stupid is really your department.  Yes, it would be so horrific to have a government that left people alone for a change.  Then again you would rather have crooks like Clinton running things.

Let the wealthy and powerful alone so they can run roughshod over the people and the environment for their own gain. That's what you and your libertarian economics does.

I don't see the left doing much about the crony capitalism.  Indeed they seem to be in as in bed with the banks as the Republicans.  Curious that Clinton won't release the speeches that she was paid hundreds of thousands for by Goldman-Sachs.  Bernie is just another economic illiterate.  So not much help there.

(06-03-2016, 05:19 PM)Eric the Obtuse Wrote: I would rather have the people running things.

I would rather people ran their own lives and benefited of suffered the consequences of their own decisions.

Unfortunately people are not isolated individuals, and no (wo)man is an island. We suffer the consequences of others' decisions too, especially their voting decisions, as well as their market decisions.

Which is why people decide who they will associate on their own. The only reason that voting decisions are so problematic is because we have a government with too much power.

(06-05-2016, 01:34 AM)Eric the Obtuse Wrote: What the Left is doing is seeking to take money out of politics.

This is a futile exercise since the government steals money from everyone else so the money is in politics. That kind of power attracts sociopaths who are attracted to the money and power. Given human creativity I am sure they will figure something out no matter what law gets passed. Try to remember that no one can be trusted with the ring.

[Eric the Green]

(06-05-2016, 02:49 AM)Galen Wrote: Which is why people decide who they will associate on their own. The only reason that voting decisions are so problematic is because we have a government with too much power.

Or, not enough.

No, people do not decide whose decisions will affect them. It doesn't matter at all who they decide to associate with on their own.

Quote:This is a futile exercise since the government steals money from everyone else so the money is in politics. That kind of power attracts sociopaths who are attracted to the money and power. Given human creativity I am sure they will figure something out no matter what law gets passed. Try to remember that no one can be trusted with the ring.

No one with power can be trusted. But that only means the people must be the watchdogs of their government, and their market too.

It's an exercize that must be done, but can't be done as long as Republicans choose supreme court justices. There is no answer to "crony capitalists" you criticize, except that exercize.

[Galen]

(06-05-2016, 02:55 AM)Eric the Obtuse Wrote: No one with power can be trusted.

You have the most amazing ability to not think things through and completely miss the point.  No wonder Boomers screw everything up they touch.

[pbrower2a]

(06-05-2016, 03:00 AM)Galen Wrote:

(06-05-2016, 02:55 AM)Eric the Obtuse Wrote: No one with power can be trusted.

You have the most amazing ability to not think things through and completely miss the point.  No wonder Boomers screw everything up they touch.

The wrong Boomers have been in charge. The extreme narcissists and some borderline sociopaths have prevailed in government and business.

...Corporate power can do as much evil as government. The profit motive does not reliably educe the noblest behavior from people.

[Galen]

(06-05-2016, 07:00 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(06-05-2016, 03:00 AM)Galen Wrote:

(06-05-2016, 02:55 AM)Eric the Obtuse Wrote: No one with power can be trusted.

You have the most amazing ability to not think things through and completely miss the point.  No wonder Boomers screw everything up they touch.

The wrong Boomers have been in charge. The extreme narcissists and some borderline sociopaths have prevailed in government and business.

...Corporate power can do as much evil as government. The profit motive does not reliably educe the noblest behavior from people.

Private entities do not use force the way governments do.  You don't have to deal with any particular corporation unless it has some monopoly bestowed by government.  There are no right Boomers or anyone else to be in charge that is the lesson that Boomers in general seem be unable to handle.

[Eric the Green]

(06-05-2016, 03:00 AM)Galen Wrote:

(06-05-2016, 02:55 AM)Eric the Obtuse Wrote: No one with power can be trusted.

You have the most amazing ability to not think things through and completely miss the point.  No wonder Boomers screw everything up they touch.

I don't agree with Libertarian theory and slogans at all, so therefore you think I miss the point and am obtuse.

Taxation is not "stealing." But you guys say that it is. It's your dogma; I don't believe in it.

There is nothing complicated about Libertarian ideas, and no points that are difficult to miss.

You can equate me with all Boomers if you wish, but that is an obvious example of your over-simplified thinking.

[pbrower2a]

(06-05-2016, 09:08 PM)Galen Wrote:

(06-05-2016, 07:00 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(06-05-2016, 03:00 AM)Galen Wrote:

(06-05-2016, 02:55 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: No one with power can be trusted.

You have the most amazing ability to not think things through and completely miss the point.  No wonder Boomers screw everything up they touch.

The wrong Boomers have been in charge. The extreme narcissists and some borderline sociopaths have prevailed in government and business.

...Corporate power can do as much evil as government. The profit motive does not reliably educe the noblest behavior from people.

Private entities do not use force the way governments do.  You don't have to deal with any particular corporation unless it has some monopoly bestowed by government.  There are no right Boomers or anyone else to be in charge that is the lesson that Boomers in general seem be unable to handle.

Private entities have a nasty habit of buying the politicians who then become the modern equivalent of liveried flunkies. In such an order we get the economics of a fascist regime if not yet the torture chambers, labor camps, and execution pits.

Extreme narcissists almost never do good for any but themselves except as retainers of even richer and more-powerful people. Narcissism is very much a part of the Boomer elite, but that same elite does everything possible to degrade everyone else.  Boomer non-elites are expected to be good little serfs who recognize how wonderful their Lord and Master is. I expect our economic elites to hand the exalted role to their spoiled-brat kids... kids who have never done any real work in their lives... Exploitative orders always hand down power through some form of inheritance, and they have always imposed upon those that they exploit, the dreadful combination of responsibility without reward.

...It is telling that immigrants are much more likely than the American-born to start businesses. Maybe they can see something -- work for a giant corporation and expect to run into a low-lying glass ceiling! At one point the MBA schools taught their students how to treat subordinates badly and get away with it. But what happens if there is a labor shortage?

Class power is real.

[Mikebert]

(06-04-2016, 10:50 PM)Galen Wrote: There are other things to invest in.  Private equity ventures can be profitable but you have to figure out which one.  Depending on the particular Fed and government stupidity will determine what is profitable and for how long.

That's like investing in individual stocks.  A good stock picker will always make money.  I am not a good stock picker.  There are real estate and dividend strategy that can generation reliable returns, but they require a good deal of work, like a job.  Working at a job is a better bet for most people unless you really like that sort of thing.  But if that's so, then I would expect one to have a  job in that field and make a good deal of money.

I'm lazy and run a very passive strategy after losing money 15 years ago trying to get clever.  Basically I buy the stock index.  Over the long run (a century) stocks go up at a pretty consistent clip.  So there is a bias towards a positive return.  If you look at it a bit more closely you will see that the market does most of this rise over half the time.  In real terms the market made a significant advance from 1982 to 2000, after which it hasn't done as well.  This is normal.  When you are in one of these rising trends, you just buy and hold, so half of the time its really easy. 

When you are in one of the other periods, like since 2000, it's harder.  But right now the market is very high and I have no interest in doing any buying, having sold out.  So that's easy, I am just sitting on my money waiting.  We are bound to have a recession soon, and then the index will go down, it always does.  So I will buy it then, just like last time.  After that it will be years before I have to do anything else.

[playwrite]

(06-05-2016, 09:08 PM)Galen Wrote: Private entities do not use force the way governments do....

They do where there is no government - see various Libertarian paradises where warlords rule.

This is one of the many fundamental mistakes Libertarians make.

Have you guys figured out this other fundamental mistake yet -




At some point, even the most dedicated sailor needs to abandoned a sinking boat - and the USS Libertarian has been underwater for years.  What so sad is, that over all these decades, it never left the dock - even the Titanic was operational for a few days.

[Galen]

(06-07-2016, 08:41 AM)playwrite Wrote:


At some point, even the most dedicated sailor needs to abandoned a sinking boat - and the USS Libertarian has been underwater for years.  What so sad is, that over all these decades, it never left the dock - even the Titanic was operational for a few days.

You mean the fundamental mistake of ZIRP and QE.  Truth is, given the high levels of both public and private debt I would expect this graph.  Everyone is all borrowed up so I would not expect loans to keep in step with the money printing.  Don't expect any kind of recovery until the bust cycle that started in 2008 is allowed to complete.

[playwrite]

(06-14-2016, 12:11 AM)Galen Wrote:

(06-07-2016, 08:41 AM)playwrite Wrote:


At some point, even the most dedicated sailor needs to abandoned a sinking boat - and the USS Libertarian has been underwater for years.  What so sad is, that over all these decades, it never left the dock - even the Titanic was operational for a few days.

You mean the fundamental mistake of ZIRP and QE.  Truth is, given the high levels of both public and private debt I would expect this graph.  Everyone is all borrowed up so I would not expect loans to keep in step with the money printing.  Don't expect any kind of recovery until the bust cycle that started in 2008 is allowed to complete.

Ah, so your "money printing" has nothing to do with banks, bank lending, fractional reserve lending?  I guess we don't have to worry much about false interest rate signals form an overly manipulative FED, ey?

that would not only seems to be a bit at odds with Mises and Rothbard, but pretty scary, no?

[pbrower2a]

(06-05-2016, 09:08 PM)Galen Wrote:

(06-05-2016, 07:00 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(06-05-2016, 03:00 AM)Galen Wrote:

(06-05-2016, 02:55 AM)Eric the Obtuse Wrote: No one with power can be trusted.

You have the most amazing ability to not think things through and completely miss the point.  No wonder Boomers screw everything up they touch.

The wrong Boomers have been in charge. The extreme narcissists and some borderline sociopaths have prevailed in government and business.

...Corporate power can do as much evil as government. The profit motive does not reliably educe the noblest behavior from people.

Private entities do not use force the way governments do.  You don't have to deal with any particular corporation unless it has some monopoly bestowed by government.  There are no right Boomers or anyone else to be in charge that is the lesson that Boomers in general seem be unable to handle.

Sure, they don't, unless the State runs like a mafia.

When there is no state, private power operates much like a mafia, even taking property at will, because no entity can stop the large-scale thieves who are or who have co-opted the most ruthless enforcers.

One needs a State, at the least, to establish and enforce property rights -- especially the property rights of people who have little property and no political power.

[Eric the Green]

(06-05-2016, 09:08 PM)Galen Wrote: Private entities do not use force the way governments do.  You don't have to deal with any particular corporation unless it has some monopoly bestowed by government.  There are no right Boomers or anyone else to be in charge that is the lesson that Boomers in general seem be unable to handle.

Corporation monopolies are not bestowed by government. Libertarians love to claim this, but no, corporations corner the market without any help from the state, thank you very much. What they need from the state in order to monopolize the market, is laissez faire state policies. It works every time.

Anarchy is not a lesson for boomers or anyone else to handle. It's just a false doctrine.

Indeed, not only am I always right and you are always wrong, Mr. Clueless, but refuting you is like taking candy from a baby.

[Galen]

(06-17-2016, 02:31 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(06-05-2016, 09:08 PM)Galen Wrote: Private entities do not use force the way governments do.  You don't have to deal with any particular corporation unless it has some monopoly bestowed by government.  There are no right Boomers or anyone else to be in charge that is the lesson that Boomers in general seem be unable to handle.

Corporation monopolies are not bestowed by government. Libertarians love to claim this, but no, corporations corner the market without any help from the state, thank you very much. What they need from the state in order to monopolize the market, is laissez faire state policies. It works every time.

It might interest you to know that one Gabriel Kolko researched the problem and came to the same answer the Rothbard did.  It didn't make him happy since he was no friend of the free market.

[pbrower2a]

The government will assume and monetize private debt, and pay off creditors.

[Ragnarök_62]

The X-mas shopping season just gets earlier and earlier.  Time to rack up those credit cards.  I just know everyone wants one of these.  



https://www.amazon.com/chendongdong-Chri...tmas+sales

Be sure to get one of these and go retro.