Russia -- generations aligned with the West?

[pbrower2a]

a post from 2012:

Originally Posted by The Wonkette
 -- do you believe that Russians are/were on the same saeculum as Americans and Western Europe. Justin '77 would take issue with the assumption that a 1921 Russian cohort would be a Civic.


me:


They might have been ahead of much of the rest of the world in the saecular cycle going into the Second World War because their mid-19th-century Crisis was the Crimean War instead of some the later Crises in some other countries (Britain and India -- Sepoy Rebellion in India, US -- American Civil War, Japan -- Meiji Restoration, China -- T'Aiping rebellion, Germany and Italy -- unification, France -- attempt to establish a client state in Mexico, the Franco-Prussian War, and the Paris Commune, Mexico -- Juarez' revolt against Maximilian, Canada -- its independence Crisis)... but the Great Patriotic War forced the Soviets/Russians back onto the cycle of the West.

In 1917 while other participants in WWI were still decidedly 3T, Russia was at a time analogous to the late 1850s in America, when political polarization peaked, political distress was extreme, and institutions failed due to corruption and cronyism. Russia was polarized between extreme plutocracy in defense of class interests and would stop at nothing to preserve a way of life.... and the most effective opposition was Bolsheviks who offered the most extreme leveling of social differences and the obliteration of institutions that seemed to enrich a few and do no good for anything else. Imagine the American Civil War in which the Union and Confederate sides had no trace of gentlemanly behavior in which every victory left a wake of mass executions and expropriations -- that is how I see Russia in 1917, a dangerous time in which any spark can initiate a premature Crisis of extreme severity, the 3T/4T cusp in which every adult generation is at its worst. Elderly Adaptives scared from being born into a Crisis world try to patch things together with compromises that satisfy nobody. Idealists are clearly divided into hostile, intolerant, exclusive camps that seek the annihilation of each other. Reactive young adults see war and revolution as opportunities for choosing the 'right' side and deriving profit. What might become a Civic generation endures a scarred childhood that enfeebles it. Such ensures a social implosion.

Russia/the new USSR got a short respite known as NEP -- but Stalin put an end to that with his Five Year Plan and imposed his severe collectivization and the ensuing Great Purge at roughly the same time as the Great Deprssion in the West. The Great Purge petered out and Russia seemed to be going toward a 1T... but the Nazi/fascist invasion of the Soviet Union imposed a Crisis Era from outside. If the Great Patriotic War isn't a Crisis, then what is?

A 1921 cohort in Russia might have been been an Adaptive cohort had it not been for the death struggle between the Third Reich and the Soviet Union.

[pbrower2a]

If the Great Patriotic War was not a huge social upheaval, then what was? Consider the changed position of the western border of the Soviet Union and the re-acquisition of the Kuril Islands and South Sakhalin from Japan and the forcible transformation of most of central and Balkan Europe into the Soviet bloc, and the effective partitioning of Korea. The Soviet Union endured huge population shifts and demographic change, including gigantic military and civilian casualties due to the war with Nazi Germany -- and Nazi massacres (especially the Holocaust) that had no connection to any military objective.

Britain and America had things easy in contrast to the Soviet Union, but both countries were no less in a Crisis mode.

Maybe we have a need for books related to the generational history that Howe and Strauss have written about America also applicable to other countries. Does Russia fit the theory or does is it violate it?

The fall of the Soviet Union seems much less a crisis (far less violence) than either the Bolshevik Revolution or the Great Patriotic War. I do not have the last word on this -- and don't deserve it. Crises lasting 28 years are rare, but hardly impossible -- especially if the last part of the Crisis is imposed from elsewhere. Other eras have had similar length.

[Kinser79]

Russia's generational cycle is off set by about 20 years and has been for a long time. They should be having a 2T sometime in the 2030s if not late 2020s.

[pbrower2a]

(05-16-2016, 01:14 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: Russia's generational cycle is off set by about 20 years and has been for a long time.  They should be having a 2T sometime in the 2030s if not late 2020s.

But the Great Patriotic War forced Russia back on the timeline of many other countries that participated heavily in World War II -- the USA, Britain, German, Japan, Italy, France, Poland, Greece, India, and to some extent China (the Communist takeover in 1949 ended a very long and nasty Crisis Era in China that may have begun with the overthrow of the Manchu dynasty in 1911).

Crisis Eras can be protracted just as they can be shortened (American Civil War).

[Kinser79]

No it didn't. If you examine Russian history (don't worry I know you haven't, and probably won't either, like most Boomers when reality conflicts with your ideology it is reality that is wrong, I totally get that) you'll see that the period from 1905-1922 hits all the 4T parameters perfectly. (Furthermore the Last Romanov Saeculum was a Mega-crisis for Russia anyway, but I digress.) As such without the war from about 1923-1943 would be a 1T. Furthermore it is pretty amazing that Russia had many technological and social breakthroughs immediately following the war. And no they didn't just copy the Germans. They did of course but about at the same rate as the US did as well.

Perhaps it is a hold over from the expectation that all Resolutions have to be "highs".

Furthermore, the Brezhnev stagnation (classic 3T if there ever was one) started in the late 1960s and ended around 1985 with Gorbachev being announced GenSec and the reversion to capitalism starting then.

As for China, they did have a rather long 4T starting in the late 1920s and lasting till 1949. Like Russia their last Qing Saeculum which ended about 1949 was a Mega-crisis.

Because WW2 happened to be a 4T for the US, UK, France, Germany and Japan does not mean it was for Russia or China. One could argue that it shortened Russia's 2T by about five years but that is it. As for China WW2 was icing on the cake which was the Chinese Civil War.

As for 4Ts being shortened, I don't think they can be. A turning is based on which generational archetype is in which phase of life. Unless you plan on claiming that Mao and Stalin had magical powers to prevent children from turning into adults (a power I don't ascribe to either--and I'm the unreformed stalinist here) a turning is going to happen on time wherever the material conditions to set up the S&H saeculum exists.

[pbrower2a]

Brezhnev's Russia/USSR coincides with the Boom Awakening in the US, Britain, France, Japan, and western Germany. It looks like an attempt to suppress the Awakening era, at which Brezhnev was largely successful. If anything, Brezhnev tried to extend a 1T. See also Franco in Spain -- until he died. See what a Joseph McCarthy would have imposed on America had he gotten his way.

Cultural stagnation does not mark a 3T. The mass culture can get raunchy and mindless, but it is still vibrant. Was Russian cultural life vibrant in the 1860s and 1970s? Definitely not. Such vibrancy was underground. Libertarian trends also mark a 3T... and the demise of Soviet Communism looks very 3T. Was there any libertarian trend in Russia under Brezhnev? I think not.

[Kinser79]

(05-16-2016, 11:24 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: Brezhnev's Russia/USSR coincides with the Boom Awakening in the US, Britain, France, Japan, and western Germany.

And yet in Russia there was no awakening there. No new tech, no new ideas, no new nothing. Just stagnation. Oh and some contraversies within the Party. Coinciding with the Boom Awakening does not make the USSR have an awakening by magic.

Quote:It looks like an attempt to suppress the Awakening era, at which Brezhnev was largely successful.

Odd. All the new tech, new ideas, and so on came out between 1946-1964. If anything the GPW shortened the Soviet Awakening. It should also be noted that if one places the Reaction and Revolution Saeculum 4T (the name I've given the saeculum containing the last of the tsars and the Russian Revolution) as occurring between 1905-1922 Brezhnev himself would be an Artist. He certainly governed like one trying to placate reformers and hardliners both. You really should try reading the politburo minutes sometime...pretty interesting.

Quote: If anything, Brezhnev tried to extend a 1T.

Couldn't even if he wanted to. Mostly because the Soviet 1T ended in 1941 due to invasion.

Quote: See also Franco in Spain -- until he died. See what a Joseph McCarthy would have imposed on America had he gotten his way.

Franco was not a magical dictator, Spain is more or less on the Western Europe saeculum pattern. They had loads of decedents in the 1960s that gave Franco a major headache. He wasn't a magical dictator any more than Uncle Joe or Mao was.

Quote:Cultural stagnation does not mark a 3T.

Actually it does, in part, I suggest you read the books again. In the case with the USSR in particular the Party had political stagnation. In part because Brezhnev purged nobody and tried to placate everybody. Typical Artist ruling pattern.

Quote:The mass culture can get raunchy and mindless, but it is still vibrant.

Tell me what exactly is vibrant about Kim Kardashian's ass? I mean maybe I don't get it being a fag and all. Or how about what Lady Gaga wears? Most mass culture panders to the lowest common denominator regardless the turning, it is only in 3Ts that they seem to get stuck into a rut and stay there unless the medium is completely new.

Quote: Was Russian cultural life vibrant in the 1860s

Very vibrant actually once one got away from the peasants. Peasant stock is not known for their artistic sensibilities as you keep telling us due to your experiences in Michigan.

Quote:and 1970s? Definitely not.

Soviet culture of the 1970s were at their most soulless, most commerical and essentially everything you'd expect from at 3T in a Mega-resolution.

Quote: Such vibrancy was underground.

I think you overestimate the artistic tastes of the average Russian. It isn't much higher than your average American, and often lower. Of course I'm speaking as someone whose actually left the US.

Quote:Libertarian trends also mark a 3T... and the demise of Soviet Communism looks very 3T. Was there any libertarian trend in Russia under Brezhnev? I think not.

Russia is not fertile ground for libertarianism of any form. The whole society is innately collectivist, which is why they went with Communism to start with. Again you'd know this had you studied Russian history not to mention culture. Libertarianism is an ideology uniquely suited to Western sensibilities and as such is completely alien to Russians. Russia is not part of the West as I've told you numerous times.

That being said, the demise of the USSR was not in any way shape or form a 3T. The whole thing was extremely traumatic for Russians of all ages who experienced it. The youngest Russians have adapted best as they are a civic generation building a new capitalist Russia--but even their capitalism has that innate collectivist drive.

[pbrower2a]

1860s was a typo.

[Odin]

An old poster, Justin '77, lived in Russia for a while and he was very emphatic that Russia has been in a 1T since the early 00s and that the young adult generation there are Artists. I trust the judgement of somebody who lived there.

Also, and I have mentioned this a lot on the old forum, Big wars do not automatically mean a 4T, especially when it is a war started by somebody else. The Napoleonic Wars were a huge conflagration and that was a 1T conflict. France's 4T ended with the Thermadorian Reaction and the fall of Robespierre.

[Kinser79]

Yes. I often wonder whatever happen to Justin. He was always interesting to talk to about Russia.

[Mikebert]

I think Justin is right.  Turchin and Nefedov have worked up secular cycles for Russia.  They have 1905-1922 a crisis phase.  I see the US crisis phase as running over 1907-1941. I see the ends of a secular cycle as happening in a 4T.  The US secular cycle crisis phase lasted 34 years because when it began the US was still in a 2T and so had to wait for the 4T to end it.  The very short crisis phase for Russia suggests that Russia had to be close to a 4T in 1905, if not already in one. Dave Kaiser opines that if 1917 is not a 4T then S&H's cycle has no meaning.

The idea that 1917 is in a 4T implies that 1991 is in a 4T, which implies a 1T since around 2000, as Justin argues.

Since I am not very familiar with Russian history I would tend to go with the secular cycles folks (most of whom are Russian) and Justin (who lived there and speaks the language).  Besides their ideas make a lot of sense.  The 1917 revolution was a state collapse and reformation like the US revolution and civil wars, both of which are 4Ts. The 1930's were a crisis for capitalistic America, they were anything but that for Soviet Russia.  WW II was part of a 4T for the US because it was part of the solution for the capitalist crisis.  For Russia, victory in the Great Patriotic War was probably the high point of the Soviet secular cycle, making the war part of a 1T.