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CBO expects federal debt to double over next 30 years
#1
CBO expects federal debt to double over next 30 years

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/cbo-exp...14684.html
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#2
Big deal. Take the "rule of 72", and divide the rate of growth or inflation into 72, and you get the number of years in which something doubles (at least roughly). This applies to inflation, savings under compound interest, or economic growth. Thus 2% inflation causes one to expect price levels to double in 36 years. Wage increases of 4% a year imply doubled income in about 18 years. Compound interest at 1.5% means that a nest-egg doubles in 48 years.

2.4% growth in federal debt at a compounding rate means that debt doubles in roughly 30 years. I would not sweat that.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#3
Only double?
That this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.
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#4
As a pattern, public debt tends to be paid off in a 1T. The government has wartime assets to sell, living standards improve enough so that people end up in higher tax brackets, and such new spending as there is tends to have revenue attached in the form of taxes.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#5
One of the reasons the US is collapsing now is that Americans think that decay will be stopped by becoming Fascists and Communists. Americans think the US will be improved by expanding wars, increasing the debt, and adding more tyranny when the reason the USA is crashing is because the US has wars, is in debt, and has a police state.

Americans say that they love freedom, but then they turn around and say they need the government to give them free Obamacare, build a wall, protect the US from Yemen, wiretap their phones, arrest people for feeding the homeless, stop farmers from plowing fields, force people to get rid of dogs, ban vaping, and torture suspects.

Every country has the government it deserves.

https://listverse.com/2016/06/29/10-inst...ly-worked/
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#6
(03-05-2021, 04:16 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: As a pattern, public debt tends to be paid off in a 1T. The government has wartime assets to sell, living standards improve enough so that people end up in higher tax brackets, and such new spending as there is tends to have revenue attached in the form of taxes.

Public debt is not increased in a 1T, but no debt actually gets paid.  Instead, growth and inflation reduce the impact of the existing debt.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#7
(03-05-2021, 10:01 PM)girlmonday Wrote: One of the reasons the US is collapsing now is that Americans think that decay will be stopped by becoming Fascists and Communists

Get this straight: most Americans recognize Communism and fascism (including Ku Kluxism) as pure depravity incapable of solving anything other than to shrink population size. If you think America's wars horrible, then just think of how horrible they would be if the overall leadership were as devoid of moral compass as Stalin, Hitler, Tojo, or Satan Hussein. Concentration camps, purges, massacres, and nuclear devastation? People are scared now.  They should be. Life is precious, or life is miserable and unsafe. 
 

Quote:. Americans think the US will be improved by expanding wars, increasing the debt, and adding more tyranny when the reason the USA is crashing is because the US has wars, is in debt, and has a police state
.
And what about the pacifist current among Americans? It is difficult to get Americans sympathetic to a military crusade... we have our limits. 

Personal debt is more devastating than public debt. Personal debt that does not have a cost-cutting or income-generating asset attached is poverty. We have largely learned that the hard way. Think of all those once-lovely shopping malls that are no more. Many employers that once insisted that their clerks look like executives now offer tee-shirts with a company logo on them as a sort of uniform. Above all, America voted out the most despotic President every... if not decisively enough for my liking, then decisively enough for a practical effect. 


Quote:Americans say that they love freedom, but then they turn around and say they need the government to give them free Obamacare, build a wall, protect the US from Yemen, wiretap their phones, arrest people for feeding the homeless, stop farmers from plowing fields, force people to get rid of dogs, ban vaping, and torture suspects.


Maybe if we had full employment with solid wages we would not need so much welfare. People might even be able to afford profits-first medical care for whatever virtue such has.

Quote:Every country has the government it deserves.

https://listverse.com/2016/06/29/10-inst...ly-worked/


Let me suggest countries that have government that the People certainly do not deserve. 

North Korea
Syria
Iran
Uzbekistan
Turkmenistan
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#8
Do you know what is most devastating to America and Americans?


SKOOLS WARE KIDZ DON'T DO NO LURNIN'!

BALTIMORE (WBFF) – A shocking discovery out of a Baltimore City high school, where Project Baltimore has found hundreds of students are failing. It’s a school where a student who passed three classes in four years, ranks near the top half of his class with a 0.13 grade point average.
Tiffany France thought her son would receive his diploma this coming June. But after four years of high school, France just learned, her 17-year-old must start over. He’s been moved back to ninth grade.


“He's stressed and I am too. I told him I'm probably going to start crying. I don't know what to do for him,” France told Project Baltimore. “Why would he do three more years in school? He didn't fail, the school failed him. The school failed at their job. They failed. They failed, that's the problem here. They failed. They failed. He didn't deserve that.”

NEW | Governor Hogan Calls for Investigation of City School Failing Hundreds

France’s son attends Augusta Fells Savage Institute of Visual Arts in west Baltimore. His transcripts show he’s passed just three classes in four years, earning 2.5 credits, placing him in ninth grade. But France says she didn’t know that until February. She has three children and works three jobs. She thought her oldest son was doing well because even though he failed most of his classes, he was being promoted. His transcripts show he failed Spanish I and Algebra I but was promoted to Spanish II and Algebra II. He also failed English II but was passed on to English III.
“I'm just assuming that if you are passing, that you have the proper things to go to the next grade and the right grades, you have the right credits,” said France.

As we dig deeper into her son’s records, we can see in his first three years at Augusta Fells, he failed 22 classes and was late or absent 272 days. But in those three years, only one teacher requested a parent conference, which France says never happened. No one from the school told France her son was failing and not going to class.
ALSO READ | Calls to Shut Down City School Where 0.13 GPA Ranks Near Top Half of Class

“I feel like they never gave my son an opportunity, like if there was an issue with him, not advancing or not progressing, that they should have contacted me first, three years ago,” said France.

(

In his four years at Augusta Fells, France’s son earned a GPA of 0.13. He only passed three classes, but his transcripts show his class rank is 62 out of 120. This means, nearly half his classmates, 58 of them, have a 0.13 grade point average or lower.

[Image: be453db4-a67e-4376-abaa-f20892354253-med...4781904580]The student's transcripts show his class rank at 62 out of 120. His GPA is 0.1373 (WBFF)

“He's a good kid. He didn't deserve that. Where's the mentors? Where is the help for him? I hate that this is happening to my child,” said an emotional France.

Project Baltimore talked with a City Schools administrator, who works inside North Avenue, but asked not to be identified for fear of retaliation. That administrator says the school system absolutely failed France’s son.

ALSO READ | Emails from Baltimore City Schools Show Culture of Grade Changing

The administrator told FOX45 News, City Schools failed because it has protocols and interventions set up to help students who are falling behind or have low attendance. In France’s son’s case, they didn’t happen.

“I get angry. There's nothing but frustration. We see on the news the crime that occurs, the murders, the shootings, we know that there are high levels of poverty in Baltimore. Things like this are adding to that. His transcript is not unusual to me. I've seen many transcripts, many report cards, like this particular student,” said the City Schools administrator.
Dr. Sonja Santelises was the City Schools CEO four years ago when France’s son was a freshman. But she will not interview with FOX45 News. Instead, we received a two-page statement, which explains what should happen when a student is chronically absent or failing.


The district says students received a letter about their academic status this past summer, and records can be accessed through the campus portal. When a student is absent, an automated call is placed to the number on file. The statement also said the school conducted recent home visits and the student’s parent visited the school. France says none of that happened.
NEW | City School Leaders Silent On Questions About Failing School
What the statement does not address, is why France’s son was promoted despite failing classes. It doesn’t discuss his class rank, or the 58 other students with a GPA of 0.13 or lower. But it does say North Avenue is “reviewing actions that impacted student outcomes” at the school prior to this year.
“It took a lot for me to just build the courage to do this,” France told Project Baltimore.



Project Baltimore asked the City Schools administrator what they would say to France. The administrator replied, “I didn't have a hand on this student, but I worked for City Schools. So, he is one of my kids. I would hug her, and I would apologize profusely.”
“He feels embarrassed, he feels like a failure,” France said of her son. “I'm like, you can't feel like that. And you have to be strong and you got to keep fighting. Life is about fighting. Things happen, but you got to keep fighting. And he's willing, he's trying, but who would he turn to when the people that's supposed to help him is not? Who do he turn to?”
ALSO READ | 6 Baltimore schools, no students proficient in state tests
France has pulled her son out of Augusta Fells. He’s now enrolled in an accelerated school program at Francis M. Wood in west Baltimore. If her son works hard, he could graduate by 2023.

[Image: b056fdc5-6b95-4aed-b73d-7f96fed29f3d-med...4781907313]A statement from Baltimore City Schools (WBFF)

The entire statement from Baltimore City Schools is below:
"Our goal is to provide resources and support to students and their families struggling with academic or attendance challenges. We hold schools and staff members accountable if that does not occur, including making appropriate staffing changes to improve outcomes. City Schools does not publicly discuss the individual academic or attendance records or data of its students. However, City Schools has taken multiple steps with the student's family to support the young man, including:
  • In summer 2020, students at Augusta Fells Savage Institute of Visual Arts received a letter explaining their academic status.

  • Per Board Policy, teachers will provide students and parents with information about student achievement by regularly updating grades using Campus Portal. All families have access to this tool. In many cases, the school or teacher will notify the student of a potential course failure and allow work to be made up to support the student. Schools also provide parents the option for a conference following each report card.

  • Anytime a student is absent from a class, the student's family receives an automated phone call at their listed number advising the missed time. If necessary, families may respond to the call by noting if the absence meets the criteria to be excused.

  • School staff also attempted to contact the student's family. The school later mailed a letter and conducted a home visit. Ultimately, the student's parent visited the school and met with its leadership.

  • The student's family has met with or talked recently with school and district level staff. regarding the student's progress.
ACADEMIC PERFORMANCE

Communication is important. If a student has poor attendance or the school cannot contact the family and develop an intervention, the student may fail the course, which may alter their ability to graduate.
School leadership is also key to ensuring the appropriate interventions take place. City Schools requires leadership that will effectively address student academic performance and support. City Schools is reviewing actions that impacted student outcomes at the Augusta Fells Savage Institute of Visual Arts before the 2020-2021 school year. Additionally (and separately from recent events at Augusta Fells Savage Institute of Visual Arts), City Schools will take prudent steps to intervene, including school leadership changes, to ensure our standards for student achievement are uniformly and consistently achieved throughout the district.
ATTENDANCE INTERVENTIONS
Children between the ages of 5 and 18 must attend school — it's the law. If an absence occurs, the student's family receives a daily automated phone call advising of the absence. If necessary, families may respond to the call by noting if the absence meets the criteria to be excused. Otherwise, the absence is recorded as unexcused.
Students who are absent for 10% or more of school days are considered chronically absent. If a student is chronically absent, the following interventions should occur:
  • The school calls the family to check in and understand what issues may be contributing to the absence so that appropriate supports may be provided. This outreach may also occur through emails, text messages, and sometimes social media when phone calls fail. Communication may break down if the family's contact information has changed or they cannot be contacted.

  • When making outreach efforts, a meeting will be scheduled with the family to develop a plan to provide support around attendance. Where appropriate, this may be a Student Support Team or IEP meeting.

  • If these outreach efforts fail, a home visit should be conducted to check on the student and arrange for a follow-up meeting with the school.

  • If the absences continue, then the school should send a letter to the family to notify the family of the number of school days missed and again attempt to set up a meeting with a school representative.

  • If the school is unsuccessful in their outreach efforts, the district's office may be contacted to assist in reaching out to the student or the family.
Truancy is a legal term used to identify students who have missed more than 20% of school days (about 3.5 days per month) without a lawful reason.
If a student has missed 15 days of school without a legal reason, the school may make a truancy referral to the district office. At that point, the district office issues a letter of concern to the family and conducts a case review to determine if due diligence has been done in trying to reach the family and support the student’s re-engagement in school. The district office also monitors the student’s data to determine if the letter of concern has an impact on the student’s attendance.
If the district determines that the school has made every effort to work with the family and offer support but that the student has continued accruing unexcused absences, charges will be filed against the parent or guardian in district court".

WBFF-TV, FoX-45, Baltimore.


My comment: Tiffany France, who may or may not be typical, should know that her son wasn't learning much. Where is the mother-child conversation asking about what a child learned today? Why is she so complacent? If I were an Imperial Wizard of the KKK or some wannabe Fuehrer, then this is exactly the sort of educational result I would want for poor black kids so that they would be helpless against my worst even if they have the delusion that they are 'tough' and 'hip'. It's the smart black people who stood up to the white racists -- not the dumb ones.

That school might as well be a jail, for it isn't improving its inmates. Yes, Baltimore is a social cesspool, but one would think that there are people who would rebel against that instead of assuming that all is well. All is not well! 

Think of another angle: the teachers. Maybe this school ends up with the dumbest and laziest teachers, people who probably should instead be doing something other than teaching... like retail sales-clerking, farm labor, or cleaning.  As a substitute in one school I knew that if I had a high level of absenteeism  the 12 out of 30 kids formally in the class were going to be trouble. It is far easier to manage 40 kids who meet expectations of attendance.  I was an excellent teacher, or so I thought one hour in junior or senior high, and completely incompetent the next.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#9
Failing students obviously do not become adequately-paid workers because they can never hold a job long enough to get a pay raise. They certainly don't pay taxes. The best of them might collect welfare with the women churning out little cash cows from their wombs. The worst might readily become criminals because it takes less effort to deal drugs than to work in a fast-food place which really is a stepping-stone to something better. They won't have the funds for paying adequate rent to support the tax base for suitable schools. I can only imagine what sorts of parents they will be!

Is this racist? Hardly. America does have a significant black middle class, and the words "Uncle Tom" hardly apply to it.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#10
Schools are modeled after factories. The notion that education should be designed to produce "adequately paid workers" is capitalistic garbage.
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#11
Most of the US economy now seems to be based on debt used to pump up the stock market, and pay for surveillance, the police state, wars, welfare, and media and Hollywood propaganda.
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#12
(03-06-2021, 04:44 PM)Einzige Wrote: Schools are modeled after factories. The notion that education should be designed to produce "adequately paid workers" is capitalistic garbage.

That has been a commonplace rap against public schools. At one time, most of the graduates of the public K-12 system graduated into factory work as the largest category of employment. The extraordinary top of public K-12 graduates typically went on to college. 

By the way -- if people are not to be "adequately paid workers", then what are they going to be? People exploited severely? I am satisfied that most work, including fast-food work and much retail work, requires army-like regimentation to meet expectations of customers.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#13
Americans say that you shouldn't fight tyranny because nothing matters, but what will you say when you get sent to the concentration camps?

The elites will not stop because why would they? All of the lines have been crossed and no one has said a word.

At no point will the globalists restore the Bill of Rights, end the wars, or reduce the debt.

Tyranny happens slowly and then you suddenly wake up one day to find the country locked down and the borders closed.

Americans are just animals now.

A 50 year old cop might be hesitant about torturing Americans, but a young cop would not. Churches are closed and there are no morals. Why would you stand up for freedom if you never knew what liberty means?

You might have been surprised the first time that you saw a checkpoint or a black helicopter, but now you're used to it.

The possibility of a police state has become a reality. Now the collapse of the USA has become a certainty.

The quiet warnings of tyranny have become large neon signs.

If you had eyes, you could see the police state.

If you had high-level friends in the government then you would know what is going to happen.

This is not a joke.

The ruling class wants you dead.

You don't have decades or years to prepare for the collapse.

Tomorrow will not be like today or yesterday.

Soon months will become weeks and then you will have days, and then you will only have hours and then just minutes.

History always repeats.

Soon the ATM machines and the Internet will be shut off.

Cash will be banned.

Do really think that the stock market won't collapse for 100 years?

Do you honestly believe that the USA will never have starvation, show trials, summary executions, and killing fields?

How long do you think that you have before you're given a mandatory vaccination and a microchip implant?

When will the Gestapo start the door-to-door gun confiscation?

Will you be surprised when property is nationalized, the US flag and national anthem are changed, and the USA is renamed?

Wake up.

Some of the first to die in the gulags will be the most hopeful.
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#14
(03-06-2021, 11:18 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(03-05-2021, 04:16 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: As a pattern, public debt tends to be paid off in a 1T. The government has wartime assets to sell, living standards improve enough so that people end up in higher tax brackets, and such new spending as there is tends to have revenue attached in the form of taxes.

Public debt is not increased in a 1T, but no debt actually gets paid.  Instead, growth and inflation reduce the impact of the existing debt.

After the Civil War, public debt really was paid down. Every budget surplus to some extent pays down debt.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#15
(03-07-2021, 07:59 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(03-06-2021, 11:18 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(03-05-2021, 04:16 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: As a pattern, public debt tends to be paid off in a 1T. The government has wartime assets to sell, living standards improve enough so that people end up in higher tax brackets, and such new spending as there is tends to have revenue attached in the form of taxes.

Public debt is not increased in a 1T, but no debt actually gets paid.  Instead, growth and inflation reduce the impact of the existing debt.

After the Civil War, public debt really was paid down. Every budget surplus to some extent pays down debt.

The last real attempt to pay-off the debt was under Andrew Jackson, and it triggered the worst depression experienced at that time (and pretty bad even by modern standards).  Paying debt means removing capital from the economy and that typically triggers a collapse.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#16
(03-07-2021, 11:07 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(03-07-2021, 07:59 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(03-06-2021, 11:18 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(03-05-2021, 04:16 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: As a pattern, public debt tends to be paid off in a 1T. The government has wartime assets to sell, living standards improve enough so that people end up in higher tax brackets, and such new spending as there is tends to have revenue attached in the form of taxes.

Public debt is not increased in a 1T, but no debt actually gets paid.  Instead, growth and inflation reduce the impact of the existing debt.

After the Civil War, public debt really was paid down. Every budget surplus to some extent pays down debt.

The last real attempt to pay-off the debt was under Andrew Jackson, and it triggered the worst depression experienced at that time (and pretty bad even by modern standards).  Paying debt means removing capital from the economy and that typically triggers a collapse.

Another fellow who went to desperate means to pay off public debt was Nicolae Ceausescu. Such created great hardships and sparked a revolution against him. After he was overthrown and executed, the new Romanian government went to the IMF for aid. Ordinarily the IMF orders countries with trouble to pay off public debt at great public pain (shock therapy), which implies privatization of about anything possible. The IMF ordered the Romanian government to take on debt to solve its problems. 

Of course what I mean by paying down debt and what you think I mean may be very different. Any partial pay-down, even if it is running a short-term budget surplus or the privatization of state assets, however modest, is paying down debt. If you are a giant public utility and you have a $100 billion debt at 4% interest and you are getting a 7% return on investment on the super-leveraged assets... you are doing very well.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#17
Maybe the debt will be paid off by illegal immigrants, technology, a zero percent tax rate, or magic fairy dust, but the reality is that the US debt is increasing constantly, no one cares, and spending more money to reduce the debt will only lead to disaster.

Debt didn’t work out too well for Rome, Germany, Japan, Greece, or Zimbabwe.

Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
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#18
(03-07-2021, 09:11 PM)Adar Wrote: Maybe the debt will be paid off by illegal immigrants, technology, a zero percent tax rate, or magic fairy dust, but the reality is that the US debt is increasing constantly, no one cares, and spending more money to reduce the debt will only lead to disaster.

Debt didn’t work out too well for Rome, Germany, Japan, Greece, or Zimbabwe.

Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

Simple solution: raise taxes --a lot!  Second solution: start auditing the wealthy instead of the poor, and be aggressive about it.  Just those two should raise well over $1Trillion a year.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#19
Americans scream that the only possible solution to debt is to raise taxes, but why not cut spending?
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#20
The problem has little to do with debt. The question is why k the debt that high? What is the fundamental reason that debt gets pushed up so high?
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