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I wasn't sure before, but I am now. The way the country is responding to the current situation makes that very clear. The Ukrainian 4T was from sometime around the collapse of the Soviet Union to 2014, somewhere between 22 and 26 years.
This raises interesting questions about the possibility of war between Ukraine and Russia. If it happens, it's entirely possible that the state of things after the war will be almost identical to before the war except for a whole lot of death and destruction having happened, and yet both countries will be happy about it. Which is ridiculous, but I guess that's just how 1Ts work.
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Still 1T. This is their version of the War of 1812.
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If that's the case, then the war will end in a draw.
Obviously, Russia is not going to lose any of its pre-2014 territory.
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(03-27-2022, 12:46 PM)Anthony Wrote: If that's the case, then the war will end in a draw.
Obviously, Russia is not going to lose any of its pre-2014 territory.
Yes. A draw with both sides declaring victory.
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No, Ukraine definitly fights a 4T-war of national survival. And Putin started this war clearly with the 4T-goal of getting total controll of Ukraine. His problem is, that he tried this with a 3T-army.
Its not sure, if Putin really will accept a compromice, but even if he does, it would be more comparable to the Winter War. Like Stalin gave up to turn Finland in a soviet republic, to keep an eye on Germany and Japan, Putin maydecide,that the reestablishment of a totalitarien regime in Russia and/or preparation for a final confrontation withthe West are in the moment more imporrtant then Ukraine.
For Ukraine, the Crisis started with the Orange Revolution of 2004.
The fall of the USSR was no Crisis-event, it is just part of a very harsh 3T for Russia and Ukraine.
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The move from 4T to 1T is in part a cultural transition. A sanitized, omnibus culture and a political order with little tolerance for corruption indicates that it is going 1T, and anything that gets in the way is in deep trouble -- like fascists who thought that the United States was a heavily-divided, corrupt, decadent society. America was showing plenty of signs of a 1T with a clear demonstration that an omnibus culture was forming and that criminality was no longer tolerated.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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04-05-2022, 05:51 PM
(This post was last modified: 04-05-2022, 05:52 PM by JasonBlack.)
"Ukraine is definitely in a 1T"
(puts on best Hannibal voice) not anymore....
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(04-05-2022, 05:51 PM)JasonBlack Wrote: "Ukraine is definitely in a 1T"
(puts on best Hannibal voice) not anymore....
Ukraine is certainly deep in crisis, but just because a crisis is happening does not indicate 4T.
For Russia, the Second World War (or Great Patriotic War, as it is called there) was a war of national survival - about as critical as a national crisis can get. But, it was a 1T war. The 1T began in the late 1920s or early 1930s and ended in the early 1950s, around the time of the death of Stalin.
I continue to point to the War of 1812 as the best historical analogy for this war. A war fought between two culturally similar and closely historically connected countries on very similar cycles, both 1T at the time. The war lacked a clear winner, yet both sides declared victory, and both countries had more national pride and unity after the war than before it, despite the end result of the war being nearly identical to the pre-war status quo, with a whole lot of pointless death and destruction having happened in the intervening time.
Non-4T wars, or non-4T crises more generally, all do the same thing: if they do not mark the start or end of a turning, then they intensify their turning. There are two really strong examples of this in the USA in the 20th century: a rather 2T-ish 3T turned into "hyper-3T" after the First World War, and the Vietnam War provided a catalyst to the intensity of the early part of the 1963-1984 2T.
If Ukraine enters "hyper-1T" after this (probably aided by a big involvement of the international community in the rebuilding), that should be taken as an indication of a 1T war.
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I have a different explanation of Russia's Monster Crisis that began during World War II and ended only with the death of Stalin. World War II shook the shaky social and economic structure of Imperial Russia, causing the collapse of the Romanov dynasty only to establish a feeble democracy that could not get its act together (it had no chance) while losing a war. Lenin's Bolsheviks took over, signed the treaty of Brest-Litovsk that consigned much of the western part of what had been Imperial Russia to the Central Powers. Lenin believed that proletarian revolutions would make Russian defeat irrelevant as pro-Soviet regimes would pop up in Finland, the Baltic states, Poland, Ukraine, and the Caucasus region. He was right about Ukraine and the Caucasus region. He was wrong about the rest.
Lenin's cranky economics failed, so he had to make concessions to NEP (New Economic Policy) that allowed some measure of capitalism in Russia. Cutthroat Stalin prevailed as Lenin died, and he established the most complete tyranny since at least that of the Pharaohs. There would be no individual initiative -- only terror in a perverse manner of socialism that looked more like serfdom than any Marxist ideal. NEP would be rescinded, agriculture would be collectivized at great loss of life among what had been freehold peasants, and then came the Great Purge. The Great purge stalled only because it ran out of potential victims.
Then of course came the reset of the Crisis with Operation Barbarossa/World War II/the Great Patriotic War. I see two abortive trends toward a 1T. So one gets a trend smashed by a return of Crisis. I see three waves of Crisis in Russia and the Soviet Union. Thirty-year Crises are possible when the leadership is perverse, reckless, and cruel.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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04-07-2022, 06:11 PM
(This post was last modified: 04-07-2022, 06:16 PM by Eric the Green.)
(04-07-2022, 02:14 PM)galaxy Wrote: (04-05-2022, 05:51 PM)JasonBlack Wrote: "Ukraine is definitely in a 1T"
(puts on best Hannibal voice) not anymore....
Ukraine is certainly deep in crisis, but just because a crisis is happening does not indicate 4T.
For Russia, the Second World War (or Great Patriotic War, as it is called there) was a war of national survival - about as critical as a national crisis can get. But, it was a 1T war. The 1T began in the late 1920s or early 1930s and ended in the early 1950s, around the time of the death of Stalin.
I continue to point to the War of 1812 as the best historical analogy for this war. A war fought between two culturally similar and closely historically connected countries on very similar cycles, both 1T at the time. The war lacked a clear winner, yet both sides declared victory, and both countries had more national pride and unity after the war than before it, despite the end result of the war being nearly identical to the pre-war status quo, with a whole lot of pointless death and destruction having happened in the intervening time.
Non-4T wars, or non-4T crises more generally, all do the same thing: if they do not mark the start or end of a turning, then they intensify their turning. There are two really strong examples of this in the USA in the 20th century: a rather 2T-ish 3T turned into "hyper-3T" after the First World War, and the Vietnam War provided a catalyst to the intensity of the early part of the 1963-1984 2T.
If Ukraine enters "hyper-1T" after this (probably aided by a big involvement of the international community in the rebuilding), that should be taken as an indication of a 1T war.
There are wars during 1Ts, usually outgrowths of previous wars during the 4T. The War of 1812 was certainly one, and so was the Korean War, and the wars in the Balkans in 1875-1877.
There are wars in 2Ts too, and they usually don't work out very well, if the USA-Vietnam War and the US-Philippine War and Boer War are any indication. All 3 of these wars were controversial, and were protested, although the Philippine War followed upon the brief and popular Spanish-American War. There were other imperialist wars during the turn of the 20th century 2T, such as the Italian war in Ethiopia. It did not go well either.
I don't see any reason to assign a 1T turning to current Ukraine, though. It has been at this current war for 8 years now. Nor certainly not to the Great Patriotic War between Russia and Germany. Russia, as I mentioned, probably can't be assigned turnings at all, because it has never had progress except in fits and starts. Dark-Age and Medieval societies, like Russia has always been, do not have a saeculum. Countries that never change do not have saecula. Turnings depend first of all on generation gaps. When generations do not change from one to the next, there are no generation cycles. Such societies live in the Reign of Chronos, otherwise known as Saturn. The status quo of authority over the people reigns without challenge.
Ancient Rome and probably ancient Greece had enough change and progress to have slow, mild saecula; like Europe later had in the Renaissance and Baroque era. The classical ancient world is where saecula started, and from where the term comes. The word originally meant a one hundred year cycle. Since Uranus (and electricity, speaking of the subject of the current PBS documentary on Ben Franklin) was discovered, turnings speeded up to Uranus' orbital length, as progress sped up.
If we fail now to handle our current 4T crisis, I predict saecula will end again as we plunge into an indefinite dark age. We have only a few years to act, and it doesn't look good, because the USA leads the world, and the USA cannot act if Republicans control congress and/or the white house. Republicans seek to return the USA and the world to the reign of Chronos. But this time, it will only bring death.
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(02-24-2022, 03:55 PM)galaxy Wrote: Still 1T. This is their version of the War of 1812.
The war of 1812 was the reverse of the current war, and on a much wider geographical scale as well. France under Napoleon invaded Russia to the east. At the same time, Napoleon's enemy the UK attacked his ally the USA. The war in the USA ended up as it began, after both sides attempted conquests. Napoloen was defeated in Russia and then was chased all the way back to France, and Napoleon was deposed and the Bourbons were restored. Currently, Russia is attacking to the west, will not ever get very far, and this could result in the defeat and fall of Putin. But Ukraine and The West are not attempting to conquer Russia. The borders could end up where they began.
Both the current war in Ukraine and the war of 1812 were continuations of previous wars. The war of 1812 really started in 1792 during the 4T when the (soon to be attained) French Republic fought back against Austrian and Prussian royal invaders. France thereupon offered its assistance to any nation seeking to recover its liberty. This was attained (but with inadequate results as far as liberty was concerned) by Napoleon's armies during the ensuing 1T. But the current Ukraine war is only 8 years old.
Russia is a pariah nation now for the forseeable future, but what do we do about a pariah nation that has nukes? Many more than fellow pariah North Korea? This problem will only be resolved once Putin is succeeded by a new democracy.
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(04-07-2022, 06:11 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: If we fail now to handle our current 4T crisis, I predict saecula will end again as we plunge into an indefinite dark age. We have only a few years to act, and it doesn't look good, because the USA leads the world, and the USA cannot act if Republicans control congress and/or the white house. Republicans seek to return the USA and the world to the reign of Chronos. But this time, it will only bring death.
the US isn't at risk of a reign of Chronos. It's at risk of the rule of Tiamat or Kali.
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04-07-2022, 08:59 PM
(This post was last modified: 04-07-2022, 09:00 PM by Eric the Green.)
(04-07-2022, 07:12 PM)JasonBlack Wrote: (04-07-2022, 06:11 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: If we fail now to handle our current 4T crisis, I predict saecula will end again as we plunge into an indefinite dark age. We have only a few years to act, and it doesn't look good, because the USA leads the world, and the USA cannot act if Republicans control congress and/or the white house. Republicans seek to return the USA and the world to the reign of Chronos. But this time, it will only bring death.
the US isn't at risk of a reign of Chronos. It's at risk of the rule of Tiamat or Kali.
Could be. I don't have direct access to Mount Olympus or Mount Meru to verify.
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Ukraine would be in a 1T, in according to its official conduct, but it is in a 4T whirlwind not of its making.
The Ukrainian Army seems to use unusually-sophisticated technology in war... and it is not particularly vindictive. Its leadership knows that Russia will still remain as a giant neighbor.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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04-09-2022, 06:42 PM
(This post was last modified: 04-09-2022, 06:43 PM by galaxy.)
To add to my earlier posts here, notice how clearly Artist/Adaptive the young generation in both countries is.
The young Russians who disagree with the war aren't responding by resisting it, they're responding by leaving the country. They are "silent" - they avoid speaking out loudly against "the system," even though many disagree with it. There were and continue to be protests, but the resistance to war in Russia currently is nothing compared to, for example, resistance to the Vietnam War in the United States.
The young Ukrainians are totally unified. Desertion is nonexistent. Any opposition to Ukraine's current actions, no matter how small, is seen as openly and proudly treasonous. According to what little polling information we have, approval of the government in Ukraine currently exceeds 90%.
Meanwhile, Putin and Zelensky are Nomad/Reactive and Hero/Civic respectively, and their actions are exactly what one would expect from their generations in such a situation in a 1T.
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When Putin invaded Ukraine he really felt confident and ready to tackle the project. Passion was emphasized, however he certainly wasn't prepared to face the wrath of the bulk of the rest of the world. He most likely felt the call of the wild and forced the people of Ukraine to get out of their comfort zone.
How it will play out is still anybody's guess but many of the psychic readers on YouTube are certain that he will eventually be taken out by his own people ala Saddam Hussein.
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(04-09-2022, 06:42 PM)galaxy Wrote: To add to my earlier posts here, notice how clearly Artist/Adaptive the young generation in both countries is.
The young Russians who disagree with the war aren't responding by resisting it, they're responding by leaving the country. They are "silent" - they avoid speaking out loudly against "the system," even though many disagree with it. There were and continue to be protests, but the resistance to war in Russia currently is nothing compared to, for example, resistance to the Vietnam War in the United States.
The young Ukrainians are totally unified. Desertion is nonexistent. Any opposition to Ukraine's current actions, no matter how small, is seen as openly and proudly treasonous. According to what little polling information we have, approval of the government in Ukraine currently exceeds 90%.
Meanwhile, Putin and Zelensky are Nomad/Reactive and Hero/Civic respectively, and their actions are exactly what one would expect from their generations in such a situation in a 1T.
Putin being typical negative boomer, he has always been committed to his mission of reconquest and returning his society to cobservative religion. Zelensky being very much the nomad pragmatist and realistic, adventurous, risky-taking leader is an effective war manager. Just what we would expect in a 4T, as with the young and midlife Ukrainians. Russians who could, protested, but Russia being a totalitarian country at war ruled by a gangster, leaving the country is the only viable option, regardless of generation.
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Could it be that a 4T is not only a potential cataclysm, but also a transition within a larger community from one in which 3T characteristics fade out or get wrung out and 1T characteristics form or get adopted? If the 3T ends in unmitigated failure, as was so in the last completed 4T, then little gets in the way of needed reforms and the needful change of national character? A 3T ends as a time of corruption and depravity, with unsustainable assumptions about economics and politics?
Polarization remains a reality in American politics, and America remains in hostile and exclusive camps, Compromise is unlikely if not impossible. On one side one will break and the other will prevail. It is unlikely that we will have liberal values on sexuality but greater equity on economics or vice-versa; we will either get a pure plutocracy with an ethnic hierarchy enshrined along with harsh rules favoring macho, heterosexual dominance. I can imagine the demand that evolution be scrapped in favor of young-earth creationism because some feelings are more precious than scientific truth,
The ideal response to a 4T is reasoned, just,equitable, and regimented. Good habits erplace bad ones, and the results are the best possible,
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How this 4T will play out, I am less sure of than I was when I published my horoscope book in 2019, or my previous book in 1997. I thought that the new millennial generation and the cosmic progressive indicators would reverse the trend of not supporting a Democratic president in the midterms once elected. I expected 2022 would be a Democratic year. The Millennials/Gen Z today are the most disapproving of President Biden, according to polls now. They are going in just the opposite direction from what is needed and what I expected. Whether they are dissatisfied with him on the left or from the right is not clear. But it's clear they have forgotten what Obama told them in Sept 2018 in that great University of Illnois speech, and what the Parkland kids like David Hogg told them too.
This is the crucial decision that will decide our 4T. We are in a polarized cold civil war turning, and one side must win. If the young people have deserted the ship, it will sink. The progressive side must win in this 4T for the saeculum to continue and our republic and our world to survive. A 4T is existential, always. We take action and change our country, or we die. The generational combination of a 4T must come through, as it always has before. We can't wait for others to do something, now or later. We need to act ourselves. We need to step up and do our part. Just as Obama said.
https://youtu.be/7hZgg_KjvDQ?t=3246
Can we get to the other side by just sort of muddling through, without the big changes that usually characterize 4Ts? Can coach-potato generations accomplish enough just to get by? Will the market forces be enough to carry us into a 1T and put us on track of steady progress? Maybe, I don't know. But that seems to be what the people want.
THAT is what they want if they are not willing to support the Democrats and give Biden a congress, just because they aren't sufficiently progressive or young and attractive enough or whatever the millennials and other liberals have decided that Biden or other Democrats are not. Or will our current generations be able to reverse themselves in 2024 by re-electing Biden and giving him a congress, and will that be in time to make one last progressive push in the last 4 years of the 4T? The recent pattern where the Republicans gerrymander and take over congress for two or three terms must be broken somewhere.
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(04-22-2022, 12:50 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: How this 4T will play out, I am less sure of than I was when I published my horoscope book in 2019, or my previous book in 1997. I thought that the new millennial generation and the cosmic progressive indicators would reverse the trend of not supporting a Democratic president in the midterms once elected. I expected 2022 would be a Democratic year. The Millennials/Gen Z today are the most disapproving of President Biden, according to polls now. They are going in just the opposite direction from what is needed and what I expected. Whether they are dissatisfied with him on the left or from the right is not clear. But it's clear they have forgotten what Obama told them in Sept 2018 in that great University of Illinois speech, and what the Parkland kids like David Hogg told them too.
This is the crucial decision that will decide our 4T. We are in a polarized cold civil war turning, and one side must win. If the young people have deserted the ship, it will sink. The progressive side must win in this 4T for the saeculum to continue and our republic and our world to survive. A 4T is existential, always. We take action and change our country, or we die. The generational combination of a 4T must come through, as it always has before. We can't wait for others to do something, now or later. We need to act ourselves. We need to step up and do our part. Just as Obama said.
The Millennials and GenZ are totally disheartened. They trust no one because no one has proven trustworthy. There is also the problem of expectations and, let's face it, the WOW factor. Biden is boring and not decisive. Trump would just bull his way forward and got rewarded for it. Biden negotiates, dithers and the younger crowd rolls its collective eyes.
Eric Wrote:Can we get to the other side by just sort of muddling through, without the big changes that usually characterize 4Ts? Can coach-potato generations accomplish enough just to get by? Will the market forces be enough to carry us into a 1T and put us on track of steady progress? Maybe, I don't know. But that seems to be what the people want.
THAT is what they want if they are not willing to support the Democrats and give Biden a congress, just because they aren't sufficiently progressive or young and attractive enough or whatever the millennials and other liberals have decided that Biden or other Democrats are not. Or will our current generations be able to reverse themselves in 2024 by re-electing Biden and giving him a congress, and will that be in time to make one last progressive push in the last 4 years of the 4T? The recent pattern where the Republicans gerrymander and take over congress for two or three terms must be broken somewhere.
Sorry to say it, but we got a calm quiet Silent when we needed a firebreather. That's not fixable. If Biden runs in 2024, we'll be seeing the GOP running the show or going through this same routine of do-little again. Neither option is good.
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