Neil Howe in an interview he did, argued that the whole Middle East is on the same saeculum. However, I would disagree with him, because I see a split between Turkey, Iran and possibly Kurdistan, with that of the Arab World.
Neil's observations that the Arab world (which includes North Africa and Israel) is about 12-14 years behind North America is pretty accurate. Essentially their last Crisis was in the 1940's and 1950s, last High during the 1960s and 1970s, the last Awakening during the 1980s and 1990s, the last Unravelling in the 2000s and 2010s. Right now they have just started their current Crisis in the two to four years. Therefore; the Arab Spring I argue was an Unravelling to Crisis transitional event, similar to what the 1848 revolutions were in Europe.
However, it is obvious to me and some others, that Turkey and Iran are on a completely different saeculum, one which is aligned with Russia and Central Asia. Their last Crisis started around 1976-1978, which led to a High lasting until around 2014-2016 and currently they are in an early stage of an Awakening. In Iran, it probably began with the outbreak of anti-government protests focusing on the overthrow of the regime between 2014-2016.
Going back into history, the Crisis before that for both Turkey and Iran happening between c.1900-c.1920. Which featured political upheaval that led to the overthrow of the Ottoman and Qajar dynasties, mirrored what was happening in Russia with the Russian Revolution followed by the Civil War. All these events utterly profoundly transformed the institutional structures of all these countries. However, in the Arab world, this process did not occur until the 1950s, with the Algerian War of Independence, along with Baathist revolutions in Syria, Egypt, and Iraq which overthrew their monarchies.
During the late 1970s both Iran and Turkey, went through major political and institutional upheaval. In Iran, there was the utterly trans-formative Iranian revolution. Also in Turkey, there was a wave of political violence more accurately a low scale civil war, which resulted from an economic collapse which started in 1976. If it wasn’t for the Turkish military launching a coup, which suppressed both extreme right-wing nationalists and far-left groups, Turkey could have descended into a Civil War.
Nothing like this happened in the Arab world during the 1980s, despite some of their young Prophet generation trying to replicate the Iranian Revolution in their countries. Such attempts at an Islamist revolution, which included the civil war in Algeria ultimately ended in failure. Also, the Arab Spring did not spread into either Turkey or Iran (apart from majority Arab Khuzestan province), which were still in a High at the time. Rather in Iran you had the Green Movement which aimed towards reforming the regime, rather than overthrowing it (which anti-government protests from 2014-2016 are aiming to achieve).
Currently the Arab world is dissatisfied with their 'outer world', especially the regimes which are in power all across the region. However in both Turkey and Iran, people are dissatisfied with their 'inner world' and not so much with the 'outer world'. Indeed, in Iran in recent years apart from anti-government protests, people have become increasingly dissatisfied with the Islamic religion itself and the whole country is becoming rapidly secularised. Also, you have the Iranian equivalent of the bra burning movement, the White Wednesdays movement where generally young defy laws requiring the wearing of the Hijab, by going out into public not wearing a Hijab. Not to mention that many Iranians are increasingly embracing their Zoroastrian heritage. This all indicates to me that Iran is undergoing more a cultural rather than political revolution (which will likely happen relatively peacefully once the old Nomad Khamenei dies)
Neil's observations that the Arab world (which includes North Africa and Israel) is about 12-14 years behind North America is pretty accurate. Essentially their last Crisis was in the 1940's and 1950s, last High during the 1960s and 1970s, the last Awakening during the 1980s and 1990s, the last Unravelling in the 2000s and 2010s. Right now they have just started their current Crisis in the two to four years. Therefore; the Arab Spring I argue was an Unravelling to Crisis transitional event, similar to what the 1848 revolutions were in Europe.
However, it is obvious to me and some others, that Turkey and Iran are on a completely different saeculum, one which is aligned with Russia and Central Asia. Their last Crisis started around 1976-1978, which led to a High lasting until around 2014-2016 and currently they are in an early stage of an Awakening. In Iran, it probably began with the outbreak of anti-government protests focusing on the overthrow of the regime between 2014-2016.
Going back into history, the Crisis before that for both Turkey and Iran happening between c.1900-c.1920. Which featured political upheaval that led to the overthrow of the Ottoman and Qajar dynasties, mirrored what was happening in Russia with the Russian Revolution followed by the Civil War. All these events utterly profoundly transformed the institutional structures of all these countries. However, in the Arab world, this process did not occur until the 1950s, with the Algerian War of Independence, along with Baathist revolutions in Syria, Egypt, and Iraq which overthrew their monarchies.
During the late 1970s both Iran and Turkey, went through major political and institutional upheaval. In Iran, there was the utterly trans-formative Iranian revolution. Also in Turkey, there was a wave of political violence more accurately a low scale civil war, which resulted from an economic collapse which started in 1976. If it wasn’t for the Turkish military launching a coup, which suppressed both extreme right-wing nationalists and far-left groups, Turkey could have descended into a Civil War.
Nothing like this happened in the Arab world during the 1980s, despite some of their young Prophet generation trying to replicate the Iranian Revolution in their countries. Such attempts at an Islamist revolution, which included the civil war in Algeria ultimately ended in failure. Also, the Arab Spring did not spread into either Turkey or Iran (apart from majority Arab Khuzestan province), which were still in a High at the time. Rather in Iran you had the Green Movement which aimed towards reforming the regime, rather than overthrowing it (which anti-government protests from 2014-2016 are aiming to achieve).
Currently the Arab world is dissatisfied with their 'outer world', especially the regimes which are in power all across the region. However in both Turkey and Iran, people are dissatisfied with their 'inner world' and not so much with the 'outer world'. Indeed, in Iran in recent years apart from anti-government protests, people have become increasingly dissatisfied with the Islamic religion itself and the whole country is becoming rapidly secularised. Also, you have the Iranian equivalent of the bra burning movement, the White Wednesdays movement where generally young defy laws requiring the wearing of the Hijab, by going out into public not wearing a Hijab. Not to mention that many Iranians are increasingly embracing their Zoroastrian heritage. This all indicates to me that Iran is undergoing more a cultural rather than political revolution (which will likely happen relatively peacefully once the old Nomad Khamenei dies)