The Most Significant U.S. Political Development In Over 30 Years

[Dan '82]

https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/52789-t...r-30-years

Quote:Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from an institutional research note written by Hedgeye Demography Sector head Neil Howe. This is the first of several pieces he is writing about the election. To access our institutional research email sales@hedgeye.com.
 

 
Let me say at the outset that I get a lot of questions from readers about how Clinton v Trump fits into the predictive schema laid out in a couple of books I co-authored in the 1990s (Generations in 1991 and The Fourth Turning in 1997). I will respond to these questions in my upcoming notes.
 
Let me just say here, as a preview, that I regard the rise of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders to be the most significant development in American politics going back to the early 1980s—not because of who Trump or Sanders are personally, but because of what their popularity says about a decisive mood shift in the electorate. (And not just here in America, but around much of the world.) In our earlier books, we foresaw this shift as driven by generational aging and occurring on a “seasonal” timetable that has demonstrated remarkable regularity through history.



https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/52789-t...r-30-years

[Eric the Green]

That's cool X, although I think the Democrats' appeal to American values and "the US is the greatest nation in the world" and "family values" and such is basically a tactical move against Trump, who offers a "change" to go backwards in many respects, and a threatening picture of our nation today in order to arouse fear of certain people and discredit the Obama/Clinton administration as he sees it. American values are leftward, when the alternative is to move toward the radical right in the form of prejudice and xenophobia as well as unwillingness to embrace the forward movement we have made towards human rights and respect for diversity.

When the "change agent" is in office, at least these days in the presidency, though not in the congress or the statehouses, then "more change" becomes the "status quo," and conservative reaction becomes "change."

[pbrower2a]

The big change was the near-disappearance of a political center. The two Parties became sharply ideological . America has become about as polarized into hostile camps as Spain in the 1930s.

[Kinser79]

What is interesting is that NH didn't stop to consider that with HRC being the candidate no matter how far to the left she may campaign even if she is elected (which I see as unlikely--the Bernie crowd are not going to go for her and are splitting to either Stein or to Trump [not so ironically as he is anti-establishment too]), will never implement anything remotely like what Sanders talked about. Indeed she's running as Obama's third term. She's said it over and over, maybe that one isn't a lie--but with her how can you tell? This means that if she is elected she will be a one termer (third term candidates of a more popular president have hard times generally), and that she most likely won't be elected because the entire campaign has been a war of the anti-establishment types against the establishment types.

It isn't for no reason that the Dems had to coronate HRC, and that Jeb and Rubio lost in the GOP. Cruz never really had a chance. Even if he were nominated someone would bring a law suit on the natural born citizen clause and he wasn't ever going to get a joint resolution like McCain did because the Senate hates him.

[Odin]

(08-03-2016, 10:08 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: the Bernie crowd are not going to go for her and are splitting to either Stein or to Trump

86% of Bernie supporters are voting for Clinton, You live in a fucking fantasy land.

[MillsT_98]

(08-04-2016, 11:14 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:

(08-04-2016, 07:24 AM)Odin Wrote:

(08-03-2016, 10:08 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: the Bernie crowd are not going to go for her and are splitting to either Stein or to Trump

86% of Bernie supporters are voting for Clinton, You live in a fucking fantasy land.

He's also got "Daddy" issues.

Look, I have many gay people in my own circle. Some of them are even Daddies or partners / paramours thereof. But obsession with someone like Trump is just freakin' weird. Sorry to sound judgmental, but sorry, it's weird.

Yeah, I never really understood why he called him "Daddy".

[Kinser79]

(08-04-2016, 07:24 AM)Odin Wrote:

(08-03-2016, 10:08 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: the Bernie crowd are not going to go for her and are splitting to either Stein or to Trump

86% of Bernie supporters are voting for Clinton, You live in a fucking fantasy land.

Citation needed. All polling down here indicate around 20% are breaking for Trump and that is assuming no October Surprise.

(08-04-2016, 11:14 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: He's also got "Daddy" issues.

Look, I have many gay people in my own circle. Some of them are even Daddies or partners / paramours thereof. But obsession with someone like Trump is just freakin' weird. Sorry to sound judgmental, but sorry, it's weird.

Two things:

1. I do not think you are qualified to speak as to my psychological state, or any complexes, disorders or syndromes thereof. Sorry you simply are not. Get yourself degree in psychology and a license as a therapist and then maybe you will. Otherwise you're spewing pop-psych nonsense.

2. I really don't care if you judge me or not. In fact since unlike the special snowflakes that populate college campuses these days I sort of expect you to. If you like what you see great, if you don't, whatever.

That said, if it interests you, were I substantially older than my BF I would be his daddy as I'm usually a top. Not that it is any of your business, but it may help you correct some of your misconceptions. As to my own sperm donor I have no issues with him. He insulted my child, he is out of my life. Enough said. Kind of hard to have issues with someone you don't interact with, and at 37 I am no longer qualified to bring up my shitty childhood. At a certain age people have to take responsibility for their own lives and their own choices lest they become PBR.

(08-04-2016, 01:15 PM)MillsT_98 Wrote: Yeah, I never really understood why he called him "Daddy".

For the same reasons that Milo Yiannopolous does.

It triggers the hell out of the Clinton crowd and the #NeverTrump clowns as you can see above. That alone is a reason to do it. To be provocative, to be trollish, to be mischievous. If it helps though, I can say that he is the only candidate I've ever heard say the word "I love you" to his supporters and actually felt he meant it, that it was something more than shaking babies and kissing hands.

[Mikebert]

Sanders voters for Clinton polls:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/abou...y-clinton/

[Eric the Green]

Good article, but I don't understand how they get that Sanders voters who don't back Clinton are only 1% of the electorate. There seems like about 4 million of them, so that would be about 3% if there are 120 million voters in Nov. as there were in 2012.

[Eric the Green]

(08-04-2016, 01:15 PM)MillsT_98 Wrote: Yeah, I never really understood why he called him "Daddy".

It shows kinser's authoritarian tendencies, which are probably very strong. From that point of view, going from Marx to Trump is a natural progression.

[Odin]

(08-15-2016, 02:18 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(08-04-2016, 01:15 PM)MillsT_98 Wrote: Yeah, I never really understood why he called him "Daddy".

It shows kinser's authoritarian tendencies, which are probably very strong. From that point of view, going from Marx to Trump is a natural progression.

Not much different from Mussolini, who went from Marxist to Fascist after reading a book by a French philosopher named Sorel.

[Eric the Green]

(08-15-2016, 06:57 AM)Odin Wrote:

(08-15-2016, 02:18 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(08-04-2016, 01:15 PM)MillsT_98 Wrote: Yeah, I never really understood why he called him "Daddy".

It shows kinser's authoritarian tendencies, which are probably very strong. From that point of view, going from Marx to Trump is a natural progression.

Not much different from Mussolini, who went from Marxist to Fascist after reading a book by a French philosopher named Sorel.

Yes, and as we know, Trump IS, in fact, Mussolini.