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09-23-2016, 04:58 PM
(This post was last modified: 09-23-2016, 04:59 PM by naf140230.)
I Found this article that should be interesting. Here is the URL: http://www.politicususa.com/2016/09/23/c...polls.html
Here is the article:
Quote:NBC’s Chuck Todd broke down the tightening state polls and offered a very simple explanation for why Democrats don’t need to be worried about what looks like an election that is getting closer.
Todd said, “You look at the state polls are showing one thing, which is a closing race. Trump getting closer. The national polls have all shown something else. Looks like Clinton is opening up. Take a look at that dates these were conducted. All of the national polls have been conducted basically since last Friday. The birther announcement by him. Many of the state polls, including Quinnipiac, a lot of it conducted before, of course, that week was a very bad week for her, some in the post weekend, but I would say I would like to see what the numbers look like in a week to see an indicator, but I think the state polls are the lagging indicator right now.”
Chuck Todd takes a ton of criticism, sometimes justified, but the man can break apart polling data like few others on cable news.
Todd’s exactly right. Democrats are freaking out over these state polls, in part because the media reports the horserace headline without providing the context. The state polls are running about a week behind the national polls. What the state polls are measuring is the tightening that occurred during Clinton’s health scare bad week.
Immediately after Clinton returned to the campaign trail, she bounced back into the lead nationally, and that is where she has stayed.
A poll measures a snapshot in time, and it is important to be aware of what is going on at the time the poll is taken.
It is possible that if Hillary Clinton has a good debate performance on Monday, the state polls will show her numbers improving. Much of this improvement will be credited to the debate by some in the press, but that improvement will actually be a snapshot of Trump’s fall over the birther mess and Clinton’s return to the campaign trail.
The interesting state polls will come a week after the debate. Those polls should show how much of an impact the debate had on voters. A good debate for Clinton could result in two weeks of good poll numbers.
Democrats should relax about the polls, and Democrats really need to cool it with the gloom and doom fundraising emails, because not all polls are measuring the same thing at the same time.
As Chuck Todd pointed out the state polls are lagging behind the national numbers, which are looking very good for Hillary Clinton.
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(09-23-2016, 04:58 PM)naf140230 Wrote: I Found this article that should be interesting. Here is the URL: http://www.politicususa.com/2016/09/23/c...polls.html
Here is the article:
Quote:NBC’s Chuck Todd broke down the tightening state polls and offered a very simple explanation for why Democrats don’t need to be worried about what looks like an election that is getting closer.
Todd said, “You look at the state polls are showing one thing, which is a closing race. Trump getting closer. The national polls have all shown something else. Looks like Clinton is opening up. Take a look at that dates these were conducted. All of the national polls have been conducted basically since last Friday. The birther announcement by him. Many of the state polls, including Quinnipiac, a lot of it conducted before, of course, that week was a very bad week for her, some in the post weekend, but I would say I would like to see what the numbers look like in a week to see an indicator, but I think the state polls are the lagging indicator right now.”
Chuck Todd takes a ton of criticism, sometimes justified, but the man can break apart polling data like few others on cable news.
Todd’s exactly right. Democrats are freaking out over these state polls, in part because the media reports the horserace headline without providing the context. The state polls are running about a week behind the national polls. What the state polls are measuring is the tightening that occurred during Clinton’s health scare bad week.
Immediately after Clinton returned to the campaign trail, she bounced back into the lead nationally, and that is where she has stayed.
A poll measures a snapshot in time, and it is important to be aware of what is going on at the time the poll is taken.
It is possible that if Hillary Clinton has a good debate performance on Monday, the state polls will show her numbers improving. Much of this improvement will be credited to the debate by some in the press, but that improvement will actually be a snapshot of Trump’s fall over the birther mess and Clinton’s return to the campaign trail.
The interesting state polls will come a week after the debate. Those polls should show how much of an impact the debate had on voters. A good debate for Clinton could result in two weeks of good poll numbers.
Democrats should relax about the polls, and Democrats really need to cool it with the gloom and doom fundraising emails, because not all polls are measuring the same thing at the same time.
As Chuck Todd pointed out the state polls are lagging behind the national numbers, which are looking very good for Hillary Clinton.
What was true last week is not so true now. Most of the current change is Millennials deciding to back third parties or just stay home. That could change ... or not. The youth vote is never that reliable.
I'll wait to see just how bad the debates are first.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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Nice to know.
I am tempted to believe that many people have put Donald Trump on their equivalent of the "ignore list" on news coverage so that they need not hear his outrages. With last night's debate, they had to open their ears to him again, and they apparently disliked what they heard from them.
I almost expected Hillary Clinton to cite Ronald Reagan's "There you go again!"...
Donald Trump has picked his crowds carefully, and he has allowed his staffers to use thuggish means to clear those crowds of protesters and hecklers. This time he faces a neutral crowd, a large national audience, and... he did badly. He could not go far beyond his base.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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09-27-2016, 06:12 PM
(This post was last modified: 09-27-2016, 06:13 PM by Eric the Green.)
Although Hillary won the debate, there were a few times where I thought she could have landed some strong punches, but held back. Maybe she's saving some of her firepower for the next 2 debates. For example, when Trump assailed the Iran nuc deal, she could have pointed out that ripping it up, as Trump has promised to do, would immediately set Iran free to develop nuclear weapons. When Trump lobbed a softball, admitting his desire to see our allies pay more if we are going to defend them, she could have hit it out of the park by pointing out that Trump has threatened to not honor our treaty commitments to allies that don't pay. She did point out the 9-11 was the only time when "at attack on one is an attack on all" was invoked, and that our allies backed us up and still are in the fight against Al Qaeda and their Taliban sponsors who attacked the USA. So she went pretty far in her reply, but could have been clearer in her rebuke of the Trumpie.
And earlier, Trump landed a punch by saying we got the worst of both worlds by having a huge debt but no infrastructure to show for it. But Hillary could have fired back by pointing out it was the presidents of HIS party who ran up the debt with wars and tax cuts and helped cause the great recession that took a stimulus spending bill to fix, that Trump wants many of these same policies, and that Clinton balanced the budget and Obama has reduced the deficit substantially. And that it's Republicans who have blocked any government spending for the things we need in recent times.
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(09-27-2016, 06:12 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Although Hillary won the debate, there were a few times where I thought she could have landed some strong punches, but held back. Maybe she's saving some of her firepower for the next 2 debates. For example, when Trump assailed the Iran nuc deal, she could have pointed out that ripping it up, as Trump has promised to do, would immediately set Iran free to develop nuclear weapons. When Trump lobbed a softball, admitting his desire to see our allies pay more if we are going to defend them, she could have hit it out of the park by pointing out that Trump has threatened to not honor our treaty commitments to allies that don't pay. She did point out the 9-11 was the only time when "at attack on one is an attack on all" was invoked, and that our allies backed us up and still are in the fight against Al Qaeda and their Taliban sponsors who attacked the USA. So she went pretty far in her reply, but could have been clearer in her rebuke of the Trumpie.
And earlier, Trump landed a punch by saying we got the worst of both worlds by having a huge debt but no infrastructure to show for it. But Hillary could have fired back by pointing out it was the presidents of HIS party who ran up the debt with wars and tax cuts and helped cause the great recession that took a stimulus spending bill to fix, that Trump wants many of these same policies, and that Clinton balanced the budget and Obama has reduced the deficit substantially. And that it's Republicans who have blocked any government spending for the things we need in recent times.
You may be right.
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