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Decoding the 4T - The Winners
#1
Even though we are well into the 4T, defining it can be a hard thing.  This isn't a new phenomenon, after all, in 1862 the Confederates thought they were the future.  When thinking about how to interpret the current 4T I find it best to start at the ending.  That seems counterintuitive, except that the ending may be the one thing we know.  We can't even agree on when the 4T started (I tend to think Hurricane Katrina, give or take a couple years).  But the one thing we know is this - the big winner of the 4T will be the Millenials.  

We know this because a key component of the Generational Theory is that the future is shaped by the Hero generation coming of age.  That's the Millenials.  The patterns of behavior following the Greatest Generation (GI) are already being established.  The Greatest Generation started becoming a force in electoral politics early in the Great Depression.  All signs are pointing towards increased activism from a Millenial Generation of which, only 29% think the country is headed in the right direction (link below).  

So where are the Millenials taking us?  For starters, Millenials are only 55% white, so expect the future to accept much more diversity.  According to studies, Millenials believe in education and place lower value on traditional roles of marriage and family.  About 1/3 of Millenials say faith plays no part in their lives.   Politically, 57% of Millenials view themselves as "Consistently or Mostly" Liberal while only 12% call themselves "Consistently or Mostly" Conservative.  27% approve of Trump's job performance.

Given where we currently are and the viewpoints of the Millenials, Trump and his supporters seem to have a very short window to change the opinions of the Millenials en masse.  If they aren't able to accomplish that, it will likely be lights out for any effectiveness from the Trump Administration after the November 2018 elections.  At which point, it is hard to imagine the Trump ideal winning the future.       

https://impact.vice.com/en_us/article/gy...-than-ever
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#2
(04-20-2018, 01:03 PM)Another Xer Wrote: Even though we are well into the 4T, defining it can be a hard thing.  This isn't a new phenomenon, after all, in 1862 the Confederates thought they were the future.  When thinking about how to interpret the current 4T I find it best to start at the ending.  That seems counterintuitive, except that the ending may be the one thing we know.  We can't even agree on when the 4T started (I tend to think Hurricane Katrina, give or take a couple years).  But the one thing we know is this - the big winner of the 4T will be the Millenials.  

We know this because a key component of the Generational Theory is that the future is shaped by the Hero generation coming of age.  That's the Millenials.  The patterns of behavior following the Greatest Generation (GI) are already being established.  The Greatest Generation started becoming a force in electoral politics early in the Great Depression.  All signs are pointing towards increased activism from a Millenial Generation of which, only 29% think the country is headed in the right direction (link below).  

So where are the Millenials taking us?  For starters, Millenials are only 55% white, so expect the future to accept much more diversity.  According to studies, Millenials believe in education and place lower value on traditional roles of marriage and family.  About 1/3 of Millenials say faith plays no part in their lives.   Politically, 57% of Millenials view themselves as "Consistently or Mostly" Liberal while only 12% call themselves "Consistently or Mostly" Conservative.  27% approve of Trump's job performance.

Given where we currently are and the viewpoints of the Millenials, Trump and his supporters seem to have a very short window to change the opinions of the Millenials en masse.  If they aren't able to accomplish that, it will likely be lights out for any effectiveness from the Trump Administration after the November 2018 elections.  At which point, it is hard to imagine the Trump ideal winning the future.       

https://impact.vice.com/en_us/article/gy...-than-ever

I disagree that whites becoming a smaller majority will necessarily cause society to accept more diversity.  It may also result in whites feeling more ethnically threatened and thus consolidating along racial lines, reimposing institutionalized race discrimination against nonwhites.  This tendency is already quite pronounced among younger Millenials.

In addition, most Millenials seem strongly in the antiimmigration camp for economic reasons.  They also tend not to value individual rights very highly, and lean toward isolationism.

This is all bad news for libertarian leaning Republicans, but I'm not so sure it's bad news for Trump.
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#3
As for Millenials being winners, it depends on how this 4T turns out. A 4T can turn out very badly.

I'm not sure if the isolationist part would be threatening to libertarian leaning Republicans. Wouldn't they be happy to be libertarian at home, while avoiding international entanglements?
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#4
(04-20-2018, 02:34 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(04-20-2018, 01:03 PM)Another Xer Wrote: Even though we are well into the 4T, defining it can be a hard thing.  This isn't a new phenomenon, after all, in 1862 the Confederates thought they were the future.  When thinking about how to interpret the current 4T I find it best to start at the ending.  That seems counterintuitive, except that the ending may be the one thing we know.  We can't even agree on when the 4T started (I tend to think Hurricane Katrina, give or take a couple years).  But the one thing we know is this - the big winner of the 4T will be the Millenials.  

We know this because a key component of the Generational Theory is that the future is shaped by the Hero generation coming of age.  That's the Millenials.  The patterns of behavior following the Greatest Generation (GI) are already being established.  The Greatest Generation started becoming a force in electoral politics early in the Great Depression.  All signs are pointing towards increased activism from a Millenial Generation of which, only 29% think the country is headed in the right direction (link below).  

So where are the Millenials taking us?  For starters, Millenials are only 55% white, so expect the future to accept much more diversity.  According to studies, Millenials believe in education and place lower value on traditional roles of marriage and family.  About 1/3 of Millenials say faith plays no part in their lives.   Politically, 57% of Millenials view themselves as "Consistently or Mostly" Liberal while only 12% call themselves "Consistently or Mostly" Conservative.  27% approve of Trump's job performance.

Given where we currently are and the viewpoints of the Millenials, Trump and his supporters seem to have a very short window to change the opinions of the Millenials en masse.  If they aren't able to accomplish that, it will likely be lights out for any effectiveness from the Trump Administration after the November 2018 elections.  At which point, it is hard to imagine the Trump ideal winning the future.       

https://impact.vice.com/en_us/article/gy...-than-ever

I disagree that whites becoming a smaller majority will necessarily cause society to accept more diversity.  It may also result in whites feeling more ethnically threatened and thus consolidating along racial lines, reimposing institutionalized race discrimination against nonwhites.  This tendency is already quite pronounced among younger Millenials.

In addition, most Millenials seem strongly in the antiimmigration camp for economic reasons.  They also tend not to value individual rights very highly, and lean toward isolationism.

This is all bad news for libertarian leaning Republicans, but I'm not so sure it's bad news for Trump.

I haven't read that about Millenials. Can you provide some links so I can understand your viewpoint better?
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#5
(04-20-2018, 01:03 PM)Another Xer Wrote: Even though we are well into the 4T, defining it can be a hard thing.  This isn't a new phenomenon, after all, in 1862 the Confederates thought they were the future.  When thinking about how to interpret the current 4T I find it best to start at the ending.  That seems counterintuitive, except that the ending may be the one thing we know.  We can't even agree on when the 4T started (I tend to think Hurricane Katrina, give or take a couple years).  But the one thing we know is this - the big winner of the 4T will be the Milleninals.

We all have our ideas of how the Crisis will play, and until events turn something in flux into something inevitable and irrevocable, how we see it likely to happen will fit our chosen narratives. Hitler could never have predicted that he would blow his brains out as the Soviet Army closed in on his dank bunker. Tojo would have never predicted that he would die dangling with a rope around his neck. We now look at history and see Hitler having doomed himself by attacking the Soviet Union and Tojo having doomed himself by ordering the Pearl Harbor attack. We also may recognize that the bleak prediction of Churchill of what a bleak world would follow a Nazi victory that seemed so nigh would itself fail. No -- Hitler thought that by defeating the Soviet Union he could effectively defeat the tough nut to crack in Britain, and Tojo thought that he could prevail in eastern Asia only if he knocked out the United States.

We don't know what the 'right side of History' is until History shows what that 'right side' is. One of the darkest of Christmas carols, "I Heard the Bells on Christmas Day", reflects the despair of the poet Henry Wadsworth Longfellow at a series of horrible events (including the death of his wife in a fire). But ultimately 

"The wrong shall fail,
the Right prevail!"

With an obvious change, it could apply as easily to the Second World War as to the American Civil War.


Quote:We know this because a key component of the Generational Theory is that the future is shaped by the Hero generation coming of age.  That's the Millennials.  The patterns of behavior following the Greatest Generation (GI) are already being established.  The Greatest Generation started becoming a force in electoral politics early in the Great Depression.  All signs are pointing towards increased activism from a Millennial Generation of which, only 29% think the country is headed in the right direction (link below).  

It's not that simple. A Civic generation is unlikely to establish a firm purpose for a Great Struggle. That is usually for an Idealist generation, like those whence came Benjamin Franklin and Samuel Adams in the American Revolution, Abraham Lincoln in the American Civil War, and Churchill and FDR in the Second World War. Such comes from the struggles over ideas, principles, and cultures in an Awakening Era as only Idealist generations can make sense. Likewise, wet-behind-the-ear young adults are not yet the administrators and entrepreneurs needed for ensuring that the logistics of the Great Struggle be solved. The Millennial generation, like the GI Generation needs guidance
 -- and a material basis for executing the orders of older adults.

Quote:So where are the Millenials taking us?  For starters, Millenials are only 55% white, so expect the future to accept much more diversity.  According to studies, Millenials believe in education and place lower value on traditional roles of marriage and family.  About 1/3 of Millenials say faith plays no part in their lives.   Politically, 57% of Millenials view themselves as "Consistently or Mostly" Liberal while only 12% call themselves "Consistently or Mostly" Conservative.  27% approve of Trump's job performance.

One thing is certain -- Donald Trump cannot be the anointed leader who sets an agenda that the Millennial Generation will fight for at the risk of their lives. I see Donald Trump as the worst vices of an Idealist generation -- arrogance, ruthlessness, and selfishness -- but without culture, education, or principle. Movement conservatism is little more than the endorsement of superstition, the rejection of any intellectual process that challenges that superstition, and a whole-hearted endorsement of class privilege at the expense of everything else. He reminds me of the worst Idealist leaders in American history -- the pre-Civil-War advocates of slavery who presented slavery as the best thing that ever happened to black people. Such people in essence see their harsh exploitation and regimentation of others as charity.

I am tempted to believe that the Millennial  Generation will endorse marriage and family' once the world is no longer in supreme danger, and when society as a whole creates a pro-child environment that puts child-bearing and child-raising as virtues higher than hedonism, gain, and indulgence. So it was with the GI Generation. When life is a struggle for economic struggle, people get materialistic in the extreme.

Quote:Given where we currently are and the viewpoints of the Millenials, Trump and his supporters seem to have a very short window to change the opinions of the Millenials en masse.  If they aren't able to accomplish that, it will likely be lights out for any effectiveness from the Trump Administration after the November 2018 elections.  At which point, it is hard to imagine the Trump ideal winning the future.       

https://impact.vice.com/en_us/article/gy...-than-ever

Civic generations like things rational -- easy to explain, easy around which to develop a consensus even among marginalized people, and easy to enforce. With Donald Trump, all is about his ego, his class privilege, and his self-esteem. That is emptiness.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#6
The whole question of Idealist leadership to me is quite overblown by the generational theory. Can you think of anyone younger than a Boomer, who thinks in generational terms, who thinks of the Boomer's as providing leadership. No, any Xer or Millenial pretty much has the same view that leadership is completely lacking from the Boomers. Their ethos is one of grotesque selfishness that needs to be repulsed, not followed.

That's not to say the Millenial's won't find a vessel who is the leader. But the power and guidance will flow from the youth up. Take Bernie Sanders - he's been there forever. I passed through Vermont in the 1990s and voted for him once. He was irrelevant. Inconsequential. And certainly nobody that anybody called charismatic. He was nothing until the Millenials picked him up and made him something. It's the same with FDR. The Greatest Generation made him, and not the other way around. They voted for him en masse in 1932. They shocked the nation by sealing the deal for the New Deal with strong voter turnout in the midterm election of 1934. The power flowed from the youth. Lincoln doesn't count because it was a broken cycle, but it holds true for the Republican Generation. The youth shaped the way and found a leader that fit their view. The leader did not mold the youth.

You can talk to me about Stalin and Hitler all you want but it doesn't matter because they aren't the products of free societies. In America a motivated, self-directed youth (a Civic) can cast off the failures of the old generations. It's why America rebounds while totalitarians shatter.
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#7
(04-21-2018, 03:44 AM)Another Xer Wrote: The whole question of Idealist leadership to me is quite overblown by the generational theory.  Can you think of anyone younger than a Boomer, who thinks in generational terms, who thinks of the Boomers as providing leadership.  No, any Xer or Millenial pretty much has the same view that leadership is completely lacking from the Boomers.  Their ethos is one of grotesque selfishness that needs to be repulsed, not followed.

So far, Boomer leadership has been largely awful. But so was Transcendental and so was Missionary leadership in politics before the Civil War and the Great Depression. I could also make the case that Awakening leadership before the American Revolution is largely forgotten for good reason. Maybe the Crisis Era has the power to force people to seek the best while the preceding Degeneracy rewards letting people gravitate to their most debased and improvident tendencies.

Of course, things can go badly enough that the most cynical and depraved figures get top leadership at the start of a Fourth Turning. Thus the fascists and Nazis who shut out more principled leadership that might have led their countries in different directions. Imagine Germany with Konrad Adenauer instead of Adolf Hitler. Also imagine Europe with a much larger Jewish population, and with the collapse of Bolshevism. The difference between a nation winning a Great Struggle and losing it may be the moral leadership of its top leaders. The British and Americans won in the end because with their humane view of how to settle things that those who endured defeat at their hands had nothing for which to fight. German soldiers had to watch their backs on the way to and from the Russian front as soon as they set foot in the pre-war Poland. I can think of someone far less principled than  FDR in America and a cause nearly as vile as the German Nazi Party. We are simply fortunate that the 1915 Klan imploded.

Quote:
Quote:That's not to say the Millenial's won't find a vessel who is the leader.  But the power and guidance will flow from the youth up.  Take Bernie Sanders - he's been there forever.  I passed through Vermont in the 1990s and voted for him once.  He was irrelevant.  Inconsequential.  And certainly nobody that anybody called charismatic.  He was nothing until the Millenials picked him up and made him something.  It's the same with FDR.  The Greatest Generation made him, and not the other way around.  They voted for him en masse in 1932.  They shocked the nation by sealing the deal for the New Deal with strong voter turnout in the midterm election of 1934.  The power flowed from the youth.  Lincoln doesn't count because it was a broken cycle, but it holds true for the Republican Generation.  The youth shaped the way and found a leader that fit their view.  The leader did not mold the youth.


You can talk to me about Stalin and Hitler all you want but it doesn't matter because they aren't the products of free societies.  In America a motivated, self-directed youth (a Civic) can cast off the failures of the old generations.  It's why America rebounds while totalitarians shatter.


Stalin exploited a power struggle within a political system that had already destroyed all civil liberties and democratic practice. He was simply the most ruthless of his enemies and of erstwhile allies that he decided to dispose of when those allies asked for their rewards. Hitler overthrew a weakened democratic order in which the political life had split between extremist factions by getting power from a leadership that had lost faith in democracy. Hitler took emergency powers and used them as an excuse for consolidating exclusive power.

I am not so sure that American politics are as democratic as they used to be. Lobbyists have the real power in the legislative branch of the federal government and in most state legislatures. Enough Americans fell for a crass demagogue in 2016 that we have the most dictatorial President in our history. Government now effectively represents economic power and bureaucratic power instead of the People. Should Donald Trump fail after having betrayed the masses whose resentments he exploited in the name of solving their economic distress, then the people with hurt feelings might be amenable to a left-wing demagogue who exploits economic distress.

Leadership that believes in nothing but itself (Eric Hoffer's True Believer may be a fanatic, but the fanaticism is but window dressing for a depraved, soulless person) brings about great horrors. Maybe the Idealist with a grand vision isn't so necessary as is leadership that out of its own pragmatism concocts principles no more profound than kindness, caution, and conscience.  That's the best that a Reactive like Barack Obama can do. After Donald Trump, we may have to settle for that -- but we will do fine.

But government by lobbyist must go. The Trump ideology that holds that government best represents economic ownership and bureaucratic power within giant corporations must also go. Political corruption has no defense. I can easily see the Trump ideology transforming America into a Corporate State reminiscent of the scheme of Benito Mussolini in which the bank teller supposedly had more in common with a bank executive than with a construction worker. Well, a bank teller is more likely to be married to a construction worker than to a bank executive, and a bank executive is more likely to have dealings with real estate developers hiring masses of construction workers than with the bank's janitors...

The class struggle is real, and in recent years the owners and executives have been winning... and humiliating workers. We need better than that lest we are to consolidate a nightmare.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#8
(04-21-2018, 08:54 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [quote='Another Xer' pid='36041' dateline='1524300272']
To be repulsed, not followed.



Of co

Quote:[quote]

. Maybe the Idealist with a grand vision isn't so necessary as is leadership that out of its own pragmatism concocts principles no more profound than kindness, caution, and conscience.  That's the best that a Reactive like Barack Obama can do. After Donald Trump, we may have to settle for that -- but we will do fine.
So you think that the USA may muddle through this 4T with Xer leadership?
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#9
(04-21-2018, 03:44 AM)Another Xer Wrote: The whole question of Idealist leadership to me is quite overblown by the generational theory.  Can you think of anyone younger than a Boomer, who thinks in generational terms, who thinks of the Boomer's as providing leadership.  No, any Xer or Millenial pretty much has the same view that leadership is completely lacking from the Boomers.  Their ethos is one of grotesque selfishness that needs to be repulsed, not followed.  

That's not to say the Millenial's won't find a vessel who is the leader.  But the power and guidance will flow from the youth up.  Take Bernie Sanders - he's been there forever.  I passed through Vermont in the 1990s and voted for him once.  He was irrelevant.  Inconsequential.  And certainly nobody that anybody called charismatic.  He was nothing until the Millenials picked him up and made him something.  It's the same with FDR.  The Greatest Generation made him, and not the other way around.  They voted for him en masse in 1932.  They shocked the nation by sealing the deal for the New Deal with strong voter turnout in the midterm election of 1934.  The power flowed from the youth.  Lincoln doesn't count because it was a broken cycle, but it holds true for the Republican Generation.  The youth shaped the way and found a leader that fit their view.  The leader did not mold the youth.

You can talk to me about Stalin and Hitler all you want but it doesn't matter because they aren't the products of free societies.  In America a motivated, self-directed youth (a Civic) can cast off the failures of the old generations.  It's why America rebounds while totalitarians shatter.

There's plenty of good potential boomer leaders. The right ones need to be elected, and haven't been; that's the problem. Most potential candidates today are still boomers or boomer/Xer cuspers. These days, in these last 5 or 6 decades, all younger generations put down their elders. That doesn't matter. People vote for someone of any age if it's the right person to vote for. Generational prejudice is irrelevant.

It doesn't matter what generation a candidate is in. Vote for the best one. Millennials will vote for a Boomer if (s)he's good. Millennials will power the next few presidential elections more than any generation. But no one generation, young or old, is going to choose the leaders of the USA. Hopes that a younger generation alone can change the world might not work out. Boomers been there and tried that.

Some pundits only look at who is famous and getting buzz now or who has money or money raising skills. Others only look at whom they deem as progressive enough, or moderate enough. At this point, none of that matters. The only candidate who can win is a candidate with good candidate skills.

You don't have to look very far to see how totally ruthless, well-financed and utterly ignorant and bubble-bound the right wing who control this country are. And the electoral college gives these often-rural voters an advantage. Dividing ourselves into generational or other demographical factions will not lead to success for the more moderate and liberal folks in America. The other side will win if we do this.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#10
(04-20-2018, 01:03 PM)Another Xer Wrote: But the one thing we know is this - the big winner of the 4T will be the Millennials.  

I don't think a victory in a 4T is defined by a winning generation. It's usually a winning country, or a geographic portion of a country, or the ideological factions of a country.

What we can say is that the Millennials will have a large (but not the only) say in which factions and portions of the USA are winners in the 4T, and whether or not the country as a whole wins.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#11
(04-21-2018, 06:19 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote:
(04-21-2018, 08:54 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(04-21-2018, 03:44 AM)Another Xer Wrote: To be repulsed, not followed.



Of co

Quote:
Quote:. Maybe the Idealist with a grand vision isn't so necessary as is leadership that out of its own pragmatism concocts principles no more profound than kindness, caution, and conscience.  That's the best that a Reactive like Barack Obama can do. After Donald Trump, we may have to settle for that -- but we will do fine.
So you think that the USA may muddle through this 4T with Xer leadership?

Much is possible, and nothing is certain. Who knows? Maybe we end up with another Barack Obama who has no pretension to great moral leadership but generally chooses the way of rectitude. The real danger with reactive leadership comes with angry, callous figures whose idea of leadership is to settle scores. Almost all Reactive figures have some stinging experience. The best ones decide not to let such get in the way of winning the Great Struggle.

Obama is about as good as a country can get out of a Reactive leader in a Crisis, and I am tempted to believe that he will not be the last Reactive leader with practically the same virtues. I can think of far worse -- the extreme being none other than Adolf Hitler. I think we can all see what was wrong with him as a leader. He was not stupid, crazy, or lazy. He was simply evil.
I remember seeing some historian recognize that Hitler well knew the realities of logistics. He knew economics well enough to know what inputs needed to go where. He knew the German transportation system well. He could give a stirring speech -- the problem was that that speech was often full of rage, and if not rage, maudlin sentiment. If he needed to learn something, he learned it. He chose well between military options until those options became little more than choosing how to lose. He was a borderline genius. The problem was that he was such a Nazi. Had it not been for his atrocities, his enslavement of subjected peoples, and above all the mistreatment of the Jews, he would have fared better. The problem with Hitler was that his cruelty, bigotry, and anger were his character. Just because Hitler occupied one's country one had even more cause to resist him -- to recover God-given rights, including "life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness".

Another bad type is the stooge for a foreign tyrant. I think of Bierut in Poland, Ulbricht in East Germany, Gottwald in Czechoslovakia, Rakosi or Gero in Hungary, and Gheorgiu-Dej in Romania -- or Quisling in Norway, Tiso in Slovakia, Mussert in Holland, Pavelic in Croatia, Laval in France, and in the end, Mussolini in Italy. They do the local dirty work as puppets (killing opponents, aiding in the looting of a country, and destroying civil liberties). Those are the 'little Hitler' or 'little Stalin' types. America is too big for anyone like that.
Maybe we muddle through. Maybe this Crisis will prove more a cultural and political transformation with major reforms of our political system.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#12
(04-20-2018, 03:09 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: I'm not sure if the isolationist part would be threatening to libertarian leaning Republicans.  Wouldn't they be happy to be libertarian at home, while avoiding international entanglements?

Libertarian leaning Republicans generally favor free trade.
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#13
(04-21-2018, 03:44 AM)Another Xer Wrote: The whole question of Idealist leadership to me is quite overblown by the generational theory.  Can you think of anyone younger than a Boomer, who thinks in generational terms, who thinks of the Boomer's as providing leadership.

Check out Cynic Hero's posts.  He certainly thinks the Boomers are providing leadership - the wrong kind of leadership.  He also seems to think Trump is an exception, providing the right kind of leadership.

Civics naturally follow Idealists; they can't help it, even if they savage the generation and demonize all the other Idealists except the one they follow.

Granted, this Millenial gal has since become a bit disillusioned with Trump because he's not extremist enough:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhEPSrson8U
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#14
(04-21-2018, 11:49 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(04-21-2018, 03:44 AM)Another Xer Wrote: The whole question of Idealist leadership to me is quite overblown by the generational theory.  Can you think of anyone younger than a Boomer, who thinks in generational terms, who thinks of the Boomer's as providing leadership.

Check out Cynic Hero's posts.  He certainly thinks the Boomers are providing leadership - the wrong kind of leadership.  He also seems to think Trump is an exception, providing the right kind of leadership.

But when reading the posts of Cynic Hero make sure to have a barf bag ready.


Quote:Civics naturally follow Idealists; they can't help it, even if they savage the generation and demonize all the other Idealists except the one they follow.

A Civic Generation arises to a large extent from an Idealist generation which has been teaching them. It may be the generation of teachers that one has that does more to shape a child than any other generation. Born in 1955 (late-middle Boom) I had one Lost kindergarten teacher, GI teachers in grade school, a mix of GI and Silent (tending more Silent as I approached graduation in high school) in middle and high school, and a few GI and Boom college professors but mostly Silent, with most of the graduate assistants as Boomers).

It's the elementary teachers who have the most influence in establishing a culture. Note that the GI Generation was heavily female, and it may have been trying to subvert the hubristic masculinity of GI husbands. Against some teachers the result may be reaction. I've seen some of those bad teachers -- the seductive ones, the 'groovy ones...  


Quote:Granted, this Millenial gal has since become a bit disillusioned with Trump because he's not extremist enough:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhEPSrson8U
[/quote]

This brainwashed bottle blond makes me sick to hear her. Someone like her could have been as easily extolling the wonders of the German Democratic Republic (the infamous East Germany)  at one time.

Donald Trump is just about everything that an Idealist leader at the best... isn't. Extreme egoism, a juvenile level of  communication, unselective pugnaciousness, contempt of learning and culture...
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#15
(04-22-2018, 09:34 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: This brainwashed bottle blond makes me sick to hear her. Someone like her could have been as easily extolling the wonders of the German Democratic Republic (the infamous East Germany)  at one time.

Certainly there's plenty of polling showing that Millenials as a whole care little for democracy and like socialism, both of which would make them good fits for the former East Germany.  I don't think that particular Millenial has gone that far on those issues, but plenty of her generation has.
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#16
(04-22-2018, 11:24 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(04-22-2018, 09:34 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: This brainwashed bottle blond makes me sick to hear her. Someone like her could have been as easily extolling the wonders of the German Democratic Republic (the infamous East Germany)  at one time.

Certainly there's plenty of polling showing that Millenials as a whole care little for democracy and like socialism, both of which would make them good fits for the former East Germany.  I don't think that particular Millenial has gone that far on those issues, but plenty of her generation has.

Well, they largely despise Donald Trump, so that is a positive sign.

For much of the Right, the ideal person is someone who recognizes duties toward the elites of ownership and management, who believes that no human suffering can ever be in excess so long as it enriches those elites, indulges the elites, or enforces their power. Responsibility of all toward a Master Class of gross exploiters irrespective of the human suffering that results, is the objective of feudal and fascist economic orders that nobody recognizes as democratic.

The hazard that I see in the Millennial Generation is one that older adults can shove upon them -- that they can become much like Jacobins, with similar results. Oppressors and charlatans to the guillotine -- or simply to the chamber for nitrogen asphyxiation?

I can easily see them thinking that a new and more just (and rational)  America can do without exploitative capitalists, the executive nomenklatura, corrupt politicians, and sell-out intellectuals.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#17
This 4T can still go many ways. It can culminate in the establishment of an authoritarian right-wing order analogous to Spain under Franco. The economic elites would largely love that -- a land of low wages and high prices, brutal discipline of the workforce, and suppression of everything other than cultural tendencies that promote rigid obedience to economic and bureaucratic elites. America would have a brain drain much as did Franco's Spain, with its best and brightest finding their ways elsewhere, much as Spanish Republicans found their ways to such places as France, Mexico, and the USA. Only when the natural tendencies of an Awakening Era and the aging of the political elite have their inevitable conjunction would things loosen up.

We could have something like the French Revolution, whose Jacobin fanatics exterminated the 'obsolete' aristocracy and hangers-on in the name of a hyper-rational new order. The Millennial Generation could yet turn out that way because it has yet to find any self-interest in the economic order that we now have. Heavily in debt and often poor despite a solid work ethic? It is likely to see radical solutions that unleash them from the tethers of poverty.

It can end after America has become (for a short time) an Evil Empire that most of the rest of the world deems necessary to defeat and liquidate (as was Nazi Germany or Thug Japan)... and does. The victors will establish over the parts of America that they occupy institutions like theirs and perhaps cultural norms from their countries. In such a scenario I can imagine a city like Atlanta under Brazilian occupation developing an impressive Carnival... or children having to learn Japanese (even if in a Roman script) in Japanese-occupied northern California. Let us hope that the winners choose to bring a 'New Birth of Freedom' to a defeated America whose economic realities are back in the nineteenth century in the wake of all the destruction. Evil-doers will face harsh retribution, and many might hang themselves if they are not hanged by the victors. America might be partitioned into smaller, demilitarized units.

It can end in the obliteration of Humanity, or at least all traces of modern civilization necessary for life beyond the Stone Age. Nuclear winter, anyone? No thanks! The weapons are strong enough and plentiful enough.

Here's my most favorable prediction: we Americans revert to what we used to do well, picking and choosing what was great as determined later to be great. We will develop a political consensus that ethnic inequity, homophobia, sexism, and gross inequality of economic result will be unconscionable. We may shrink or expand the role of government as some consensus demands. But this will be done through democratic process. We will of course cast off the grossly-undemocratic government by lobbyists that we now endure.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#18
(04-22-2018, 11:24 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(04-22-2018, 09:34 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: This brainwashed bottle blond makes me sick to hear her. Someone like her could have been as easily extolling the wonders of the German Democratic Republic (the infamous East Germany)  at one time.

Certainly there's plenty of polling showing that Millenials as a whole care little for democracy and like socialism, both of which would make them good fits for the former East Germany.  I don't think that particular Millenial has gone that far on those issues, but plenty of her generation has.

Why should they care about democracy, when it has failed them at every turn.  Capitalism, likewise.  That doesn't make them authoritarians or communists.  Trump is more authoritarian than any leader we've ever had, and the Millies hate him.  I do think they prefer socialism, though they seem ill prepared to understand it very well.

They will usher in a post-capitalism era, or they will become the worst type of wage slaves.  At some level, they understand THAT very well.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#19
(04-24-2018, 01:53 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(04-22-2018, 11:24 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(04-22-2018, 09:34 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: This brainwashed bottle blond makes me sick to hear her. Someone like her could have been as easily extolling the wonders of the German Democratic Republic (the infamous East Germany)  at one time.

Certainly there's plenty of polling showing that Millenials as a whole care little for democracy and like socialism, both of which would make them good fits for the former East Germany.  I don't think that particular Millenial has gone that far on those issues, but plenty of her generation has.

Why should they care about democracy, when it has failed them at every turn.  Capitalism, likewise.  That doesn't make them authoritarians or communists.  Trump is more authoritarian than any leader we've ever had, and the Millies hate him.  I do think they prefer socialism, though they seem ill prepared to understand it very well.

They will usher in a post-capitalism era, or they will become the worst type of wage slaves.  At some level, they understand THAT very well.

Government by lobbyists responsible solely to their paymasters is not democracy. It is arguable that the USA has become an authoritarian society instead of the democracy that it once was. The capitalist system that Millennial Generation knows is a no-second-chances order in which the most rapacious, demanding elites call the shots and decides what is good and what is bad, and in which rewards are low and responsibilities are high.

As we enter a post-industrial society, labor can become practically worthless. The idea that people can be happier just by buying more stuff is becoming absurd. The ideas that we are richer because we pay higher rents and higher tolls,  just to live near places of employment and get to them and pay higher tuition to qualify to be wage slaves are also awful. We are becoming an entitlement society -- but it is the economic elites of ownership and management who get the entitlement. The rest of us get the responsibility to please those elites.

Donald Trump and the GOP majorities in Congress and most state legislatures act as if they want the Corporate State that Mussolini wanted, a political order in which economic and administrative elites are the entities that get representation. Anyone who believes that a dairy worker has more in common with the dairy-owner than with a cab driver is out of touch with the concept of the class struggle that comes to the fore when a capitalist system and the political order behind them go bad.

Donald Trump does more to make the Class Struggle relevant in America than has any Commie. He was a bad capitalist and is now an even more execrable politician.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#20
(04-24-2018, 01:53 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(04-22-2018, 11:24 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(04-22-2018, 09:34 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: This brainwashed bottle blond makes me sick to hear her. Someone like her could have been as easily extolling the wonders of the German Democratic Republic (the infamous East Germany)  at one time.

Certainly there's plenty of polling showing that Millenials as a whole care little for democracy and like socialism, both of which would make them good fits for the former East Germany.  I don't think that particular Millenial has gone that far on those issues, but plenty of her generation has.

Why should they care about democracy, when it has failed them at every turn.  Capitalism, likewise.  That doesn't make them authoritarians or communists.  Trump is more authoritarian than any leader we've ever had, and the Millies hate him.  I do think they prefer socialism, though they seem ill prepared to understand it very well.

They will usher in a post-capitalism era, or they will become the worst type of wage slaves.  At some level, they understand THAT very well.

Nobody understands socialism.  For various people socialism means anything from Stalinism to social security.  We need better words.
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