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How The Senior Wave Will Reshape The Economy
#1
http://www.forbes.com/sites/neilhowe/201...bee3ee70ce


Quote:Over the past few years, the senior care franchise business is booming—growing 6.6% annually—and shows no sign of slowing. Small wonder: An impending wave of Boomers will swell the 65+ age bracket in the coming decades. What’s more, Boomers’ distinctive attitudes and preferences will set them apart from previous generations of seniors. Many industries, from health care to travel and hospitality, will be transformed along the way. Boomers have had a profound effect on every age bracket they have entered throughout their lives—and old age will be no exception.

The impending senior wave is powered by two distinct drivers. First, demography: Boomers will be entering older age brackets in record numbers over the next couple decades. Last year, 14.9% of the population was age 65 or over. By 2035, that share is projected to hit to 21.4%. In that same time, the share of the population over age 75 is projected to nearly double from 6.4% to 11.1%...



http://www.forbes.com/sites/neilhowe/201...bee3ee70ce
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#2
(10-02-2016, 11:05 AM)Dan Wrote: http://www.forbes.com/sites/neilhowe/201...bee3ee70ce


Quote:Over the past few years, the senior care franchise business is booming—growing 6.6% annually—and shows no sign of slowing. Small wonder: An impending wave of Boomers will swell the 65+ age bracket in the coming decades. What’s more, Boomers’ distinctive attitudes and preferences will set them apart from previous generations of seniors. Many industries, from health care to travel and hospitality, will be transformed along the way. Boomers have had a profound effect on every age bracket they have entered throughout their lives—and old age will be no exception.

The impending senior wave is powered by two distinct drivers. First, demography: Boomers will be entering older age brackets in record numbers over the next couple decades. Last year, 14.9% of the population was age 65 or over. By 2035, that share is projected to hit to 21.4%. In that same time, the share of the population over age 75 is projected to nearly double from 6.4% to 11.1%...



http://www.forbes.com/sites/neilhowe/201...bee3ee70ce

Does that assume boomers will live as long as silents did?  That's not necessarily a good assumption.
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#3
A good assumption is that Boomers will live longer than Silents did.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#4
(10-02-2016, 07:22 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: A good assumption is that Boomers will live longer than Silents did.

Highly doubtful.  Life expectancy has been falling for a decade among working class whites and is now falling for whites overall - enough so that it's stagnant for the overall population.

Quote:Life expectancy fell for the U.S. white population in 2014 and remained flat for all population groups combined, according to data released Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ...

http://www.wsj.com/articles/life-expecta...1461124861

That neatly coincides with the shift from Silents to Boomers of the peak death years.
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#5
(10-03-2016, 09:59 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:
(10-02-2016, 09:48 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(10-02-2016, 07:22 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: A good assumption is that Boomers will live longer than Silents did.

Highly doubtful.  Life expectancy has been falling for a decade among working class whites and is now falling for whites overall - enough so that it's stagnant for the overall population.

Quote:Life expectancy fell for the U.S. white population in 2014 and remained flat for all population groups combined, according to data released Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ...

http://www.wsj.com/articles/life-expecta...1461124861

That neatly coincides with the shift from Silents to Boomers of the peak death years.

Right ... but ... the non-working-class white, and, non-white, Boomers, will go on, and on .... and on.

It isn't limited to working class whites.  Ten years ago it was - probably because the peak death years shifted from Silents to Boomers earlier for the working class - but now it's all whites.

For minorities it's compensated by continued improvement in medical care toward what whites enjoy, but I don't think they make up enough of the Silents and Boomers to prevent the trend from encompassing the overall population average in another five or ten years.
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#6
Boomers are the lightest smokers since at least the Missionaries. That is the big factor.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#7
(10-03-2016, 10:08 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(10-03-2016, 09:59 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:
(10-02-2016, 09:48 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(10-02-2016, 07:22 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: A good assumption is that Boomers will live longer than Silents did.

Highly doubtful.  Life expectancy has been falling for a decade among working class whites and is now falling for whites overall - enough so that it's stagnant for the overall population.

Quote:Life expectancy fell for the U.S. white population in 2014 and remained flat for all population groups combined, according to data released Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ...

http://www.wsj.com/articles/life-expecta...1461124861

That neatly coincides with the shift from Silents to Boomers of the peak death years.

Right ... but ... the non-working-class white, and, non-white, Boomers, will go on, and on .... and on.

It isn't limited to working class whites.  Ten years ago it was - probably because the peak death years shifted from Silents to Boomers earlier for the working class - but now it's all whites.

For minorities it's compensated by continued improvement in medical care toward what whites enjoy, but I don't think they make up enough of the Silents and Boomers to prevent the trend from encompassing the overall population average in another five or ten years.

You sure come up with some strange figures. And death rates coincide with a change from Silents to Boomers? When Boomers are the generation that swore it would never get old, and many of whom are staying young longer?

U.S. expectancy in 2011 was 78.7 years
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/21...17367.html

Good news, America: We're living longer!

Life expectancy in the USA rose in 2012 to 78.8 years – a record high.

That was an increase of 0.1 year from 2011 when it was 78.7 years, according to a new report on mortality in the USA from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Health Statistics.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/natio.../16874039/

United States of America: 79, year 2016 (Est.)
http://www.geoba.se/population.php?pc=world&type=15
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#8
Drug Overdose Deaths Rising As U.S. Life Expectancy Stalls
A child born last year can expect to make it to age 78.
12/09/2015 10:46 am ET
Mike Stobbe
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/drug...eddf565098

NEW YORK (AP) — Life expectancy in the United States has stalled for three straight years, the government announced Wednesday.

A child born last year can expect to make it to 78 years and 9½ months - the same prediction made for the previous two years.

In most of the years since World War II, life expectancy in the U.S. has inched up - thanks largely to medical advances, public health campaigns and better nutrition and education. The last time it was stuck for three years was in the mid-1980s.

It’s not clear why life expectancy has been flat lately, but suicides and fatal drug overdoses probably are playing a role, experts believe.

Some researchers have wondered if U.S. life expectancy will peak, due to the nation’s obesity problem and other factors. But there no evidence that’s happening now, said Robert Anderson of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

S. Jay Olshansky, a public health professor at the University of Illinois-Chicago, agreed.

“It’s too early to tell. Three years does not a trend make,” he said.

The United States ranks below nearly 40 other countries in life expectancy, according to the World Bank. Japan and Iceland are at the top of that list, at more than 83 years.

U.S. health officials come up with the life expectancy figure each year by looking at how old people were when they died and the cause of death. They use statistical modeling to predict how long people born today will live if current trends continue.

The CDC report is based on all the 2014 death certificates. There were about 2.6 million deaths, or about 29,000 more than the previous year. The increase reflects the nation’s growing and aging population.

Other findings:

- Infant mortality dropped again slightly, to a record low of 5.8 per 1,000 births.

- The 10 top causes of death remained the same: heart disease, cancer, respiratory diseases like emphysema and bronchitis, accidents and unintentional injuries, stroke, Alzheimer’s disease, diabetes, flu and pneumonia, kidney disease and suicide.

- Death rates fell significantly for five causes, including the top two - heart disease and cancer.

- The largest increase was in Alzheimer’s disease - 8 percent.

- Suicides and unintentional injuries - a category that includes falls, traffic accidents and drug overdoses - each went up by about 3 percent.

Overdoses are driving up those death rates, said Ian Rockett, a West Virginia University researcher who studies overdoses and suicides.

Drug overdose deaths in the U.S. have been rising for more than 20 years - primarily from the abuse of powerful prescription painkillers like Vicodin and OxyContin. Heroin-related deaths - though far less common than painkiller deaths - have also recently spiked.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#9
Slight fluctuations in the overall life expectancy does not change the projectory of Dan's original point. There is a senior wave, and it will continue as long as boomers become seniors, simply because there are more boomers than there were silents.

Stresses of our current 4T are probably a main reason for a stalled rise in life expectancy. But the senior wave will continue even after the 4T ends.

Since seniors will be a bigger voting bloc, their priorities will be more important too.

In order to keep life expectancy rising, Republicans needs to be defeated during our 4T. That would mean better health care made available to more people. More holistic lifestyles and awareness will also contribute. Since Boomers are more aware of these Awakening trends than are other generations, they will benefit from them. Thus, fewer smokers, more people exercizing, more people ditching the idea that age determines your life, less reliance on traditional medicine alone (thus fewer prescription drug overdoses).
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
Reply
#10
(10-04-2016, 06:15 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
Quote: Slight fluctuations in the overall life expectancy does not change the projectory of Dan's original point. There is a senior wave, and it will continue as long as boomers become seniors, simply because there are more boomers than there were silents.

1.  Stresses of our current 4T are probably a main reason for a stalled rise in life expectancy. But the senior wave will continue even after the 4T ends.

2. Since seniors will be a bigger voting bloc, their priorities will be more important too.

[ ... Especially then the early 1960's cohorts get there man. ]   Cool

In order to keep life expectancy rising, Republicans needs to be defeated during our 4T. That would mean better health care made available to more people. More holistic lifestyles and awareness will also contribute. Since Boomers are more aware of these Awakening trends than are other generations, they will benefit from them.

Yes, like legalized marijuana man.  One Marijuana's of the marijuana plant's ingredient, THC has medical backup as to helping delay Alzheimer's progression

Quote: Thus, fewer smokers, more people exercizing, more people ditching the idea that age determines your life, less reliance on traditional medicine alone (thus fewer prescription drug overdoses).


Dark chocolate laced with marijuana is also a good idea for successful aging. Big Grin

Weed also reduces stress which should make it the go to plant for the 4T.   So since the DEA has no clue to actual science, it also needs to be deleted for being such a magnet for stupid people.

Caffeine and non smoked nicotine also reduce Azheimer's risk.  
---Value Added Cool
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#11
(10-02-2016, 09:48 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(10-02-2016, 07:22 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: A good assumption is that Boomers will live longer than Silents did.

Highly doubtful.  Life expectancy has been falling for a decade among working class whites and is now falling for whites overall - enough so that it's stagnant for the overall population.

Quote:Life expectancy fell for the U.S. white population in 2014 and remained flat for all population groups combined, according to data released Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ...

http://www.wsj.com/articles/life-expecta...1461124861

That neatly coincides with the shift from Silents to Boomers of the peak death years.

Suicides and drug overdoses are on the increase for working-class white people. Suicides may be more common among the elderly than among the young, but very few people around age 70 die of drug overdoses. Drug overdoses for white people are largely  from opiates, including oxycodone and heroin. Highest rates of death from drug overdoses (which especially include opiates but can also include suicidal overdoses including the infamous Valium-and-vodka cocktail) are among white people.  Black people, many of whom are aware of the dangers of heroin and other opiates, often have a culture that remembers the Bad Old Days in which heroin ravaged poor urban black communities.

Map here:

http://time.com/4260798/drug-epidemic-america/

The white dopers are now largely Millennials and late-wave X, many of whom come from communities comparatively safe from dope in the 1960s and 1970s. Black people in their 50s and 60s know all to well about King Heroin and warn kids today. White people in their 50s and 60s can't believe that it is happening.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#12
(10-06-2016, 10:30 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(10-02-2016, 09:48 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(10-02-2016, 07:22 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: A good assumption is that Boomers will live longer than Silents did.

Highly doubtful.  Life expectancy has been falling for a decade among working class whites and is now falling for whites overall - enough so that it's stagnant for the overall population.

Quote:Life expectancy fell for the U.S. white population in 2014 and remained flat for all population groups combined, according to data released Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ...

http://www.wsj.com/articles/life-expecta...1461124861

That neatly coincides with the shift from Silents to Boomers of the peak death years.

Suicides and drug overdoses are on the increase for working-class white people. Suicides may be more common among the elderly than among the young, but very few people around age 70 die of drug overdoses. Drug overdoses for white people are largely  from opiates, including oxycodone and heroin. Highest rates of death from drug overdoses (which especially include opiates but can also include suicidal overdoses including the infamous Valium-and-vodka cocktail) are among white people.  Black people, many of whom are aware of the dangers of heroin and other opiates, often have a culture that remembers the Bad Old Days in which heroin ravaged poor urban black communities.

Map here:

http://time.com/4260798/drug-epidemic-america/

The white dopers are now largely Millennials and late-wave X, many of whom come from communities comparatively safe from dope in the 1960s and 1970s. Black people in their 50s and 60s know all to well about King Heroin and warn kids today. White people in their 50s and 60s can't believe that it is happening.

The Washington Post did a very interesting series of articles about premature death among working-class whites. A common scenario is getting hurt in some kind of accident and then getting hooked on pain killers. Alcohol abuse and poor diets also played a factor.

The deaths being discussed in the article were people aged 45-60. Mostly first wave Xers and late Boomers.
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#13
The baby boomers are not retiring like the way previous 60 year olds did in the 1970s-2000s, which leaves less room for the younger generation to get jobs. Many of them have had to continue working to pay for mortgage or health insurance. I also think that Boomers will try to be "young" as long as they can and deny death at first. However Boomers will eventually likely start to embrace death and see it as a spiritual thing.

There will probably be more emphasis on health care reform and a demand to legalize medical marijuana by boomers born in the 1950s. The ones that were big on smoking pot in the 1970s will want to use it again.
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#14
(10-08-2016, 10:38 AM)The Wonkette Wrote: The Washington Post did a very interesting series of articles about premature death among working-class whites.  A common scenario is getting hurt in some kind of accident and then getting hooked on pain killers.  Alcohol abuse and poor diets also played a factor.

The deaths being discussed in the article were people aged 45-60.  Mostly first wave Xers and late Boomers.

Yup,  what was, will always be.  The social pathologies just age in place like S&H predicted.  I just wonder if we're still  setting records for middle age arsonists, robbers, marijuana use, etc.

As for opiates, the DEA is just being stupid or bought.

http://www.naturalnews.com/055552_DEA_kr..._drug.html

We also have the DEA being total dumbfucks when it comes to weed.
http://www.marinol.com

https://www.dea.gov/druginfo/ds.shtml

See how fucking stupid the shitheads running the DEA are.  If THC is provided by Big Pharma, it's a schedule III, whereas if it's from the plant, it's a schedule I.   Everyone working at the DEA needs to be charged for murder via putting politics and payola ahead of sound science.  It's true, the DEA is killing folks in Mexico for turning their country into a narco war zone and they're killing Americans by not allowing alternatives to stuff like oxycontin.
---Value Added Cool
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