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Is The Current American Border Dispute A Catalyst Event?
#1
The Fourth Turning text conceptual framework cites a catalyst as being an event which (sometimes combined with other events or things) can cause a TRIGGER within a Turning; redistributing public opinion in shocking and even revelatory ways.  Public opinion then determines mood and major public mood swing can indicate collective movement within the Turning. 

Is this a catalyst occurring right now?  Does it reveal any information or indicator concerning the what comes next?

[Image: DgNbVmGX4AAHl5I.jpg]
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#2
It is not a border dispute. It is a divide between people with humane decency and people without it. Donald Trump is using the issue of illegal immigration to get 'his' costly white elephant project. Yes, it will be effective in stopping the stream of illegal immigrants crossing the US-Mexican border. It will be so effective that it will cause illegal immigrants to sneak on shore by boat.

The problem was that people in ICE were separating children from parents, and allowing contractor to treat the children as if prisoners pr as inmates of mental wards. That is so blatant that conservative 'family values' types found it beyond excusable. White and black Americans have no particular animus toward Hispanic peoples.

Let us remember the root cause of the immigration from Central America (and not Mexico, which is not so problematic with immigration). The US now has as many people returning to Mexico as immigrating from Mexico. After all, Mexico is a much less expensive place in which to retire), It's the drug use of American addicts that makes some Central American countries way-stations for the transit of illegal drugs. The blood money from the trade in illegal drugs remains with the dope traffickers who use their filthy wealth to intimidate weak and ineffective governments. Many of the people immigrating illegally are fleeing violence related to a near-civil-war between narcotic lords and formal governments, a war that goes all the way to small towns. If you think cities like Detroit, St. Louis, and Memphis are 'murder cities', then wait till you see the murder stats for some cities that you have never heard of in Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua.

Families moving to America illegally are looking out for the safety of their children, This is as much a loving act as families fleeing China and Vietnam after Communist takeovers. This is also by people closer by culture to a large number of Americans already here.

What about Costa Rica? Nice place with a stable government and little drug activity. Inequality isn't as severe. If Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua were more like Costa Rica, then we would not have so many illegal immigrants.

A rotting fish stinks from the head, and any possible abusive treatment of toddler 'illegal immigrants' obviously gets excused from the top.

Is there a catalyst? It could be that President Trump is showing us how to do everything wrong. This man is a Marxist stereotype of a capitalist, a political type that most of us thought irrelevant as capitalists recognized that if capitalism was to survive and capitalists were not to be exterminated in some revolutionary bloodletting that they would have to give the proletariat (working class) a stake in the system. That stake is consumerism. Trump is a bad capitalist, and worse, he is not the free-market individualist that capitalists typically support. He is turning a pro-capitalist party into a fascistic Party. He is cruel and reckless.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#3
I'm skeptical of it being a catalyst. To this point it has triggered widespread condemnation, but I don't see signs of it spiraling into something bigger. Of course that could change ... it certainly warrants monitoring (aside from the obvious reasons that it bears monitoring).
"But there's a difference between error and dishonesty, and it's not a trivial difference." - Ben Greenman
"Relax, it'll be all right, and by that I mean it will first get worse."
"How was I supposed to know that there'd be consequences for my actions?" - Gina Linetti
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#4
(06-21-2018, 10:17 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: It is not a border dispute. It is a divide between people with humane decency and people without it. Donald Trump is using the issue of illegal immigration to get 'his' costly white elephant project. Yes, it will be effective in stopping the stream of illegal immigrants crossing the US-Mexican border. It will be so effective that it will cause illegal immigrants to sneak on shore by boat.

The problem was that people in ICE were separating children from parents, and allowing contractor to treat the children as if prisoners pr as inmates of mental wards. That is so blatant that conservative 'family values' types found it beyond excusable. White and black Americans have no particular animus toward Hispanic peoples.

Let us remember the root cause of the immigration from Central America (and not Mexico, which is not so problematic with immigration). The US now has as many people returning to Mexico as immigrating from Mexico. After all, Mexico is a much less expensive place in which to retire), It's the drug use of American addicts that makes some Central American countries way-stations for the transit of illegal drugs. The blood money from the trade in illegal drugs remains with the dope traffickers who use their filthy wealth to intimidate weak and ineffective governments.  Many of the people immigrating illegally are fleeing violence related to a near-civil-war between narcotic lords and formal governments, a war that goes all the way to small towns. If you think cities like Detroit, St. Louis, and Memphis are 'murder cities', then wait till you see the murder stats for some cities that you have never heard of in Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua.

Families moving to America illegally are looking out for the safety of their children, This is as much a loving act as families fleeing China and Vietnam after Communist takeovers. This is also by people closer by culture to a large number of Americans already here.  

What about Costa Rica? Nice place with a stable government and little drug activity. Inequality isn't as severe. If Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua were more like Costa Rica, then we would not have so many illegal immigrants.

A rotting fish stinks from the head, and any possible abusive treatment of toddler 'illegal immigrants' obviously gets excused from the top.

Is there a catalyst? It could be that President Trump is showing us how to do everything wrong. This man is a Marxist stereotype of a capitalist, a political type that most of us thought irrelevant as capitalists recognized that if capitalism was to survive and capitalists were not to be exterminated in some revolutionary bloodletting that they would have to give the proletariat (working class) a stake in the system. That stake is consumerism. Trump is a bad capitalist, and worse, he is not the free-market individualist that capitalists typically support. He is turning a pro-capitalist party into a fascistic Party. He is cruel and reckless.

With respect, please do not spend 90% of your reply with correcting the OP and discoursing based on your political philosophy.  It is off-topic and does not serve the intended purpose of the thread and dare I say approaching SPAM.  Please truncate your replies to my posts accordingly.  Thanks for your cooperation.  Now that I have addressed the 90% of your reply, the other 10% is basically the same as the other 90% except your prefaced it with the original question from the OP as if you were about to address the OP.  I don't want to block anyone but this is unproductive and I will if the behavior is not modified.  Thanks again.
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#5
(06-21-2018, 11:52 AM)tg63 Wrote: I'm skeptical of it being a catalyst. To this point it has triggered widespread condemnation, but I don't see signs of it spiraling into something bigger. Of course that could change ... it certainly warrants monitoring (aside from the obvious reasons that it bears monitoring).

My post was based on the idea I get the feeling this issue is being bloated to the point of it no longer being about the actual subject matter but a belated explosion toward a regime and ALL its stances - that have been an accursed thing since the last election by many.  If I am correct, things similar to that happened to/around Lincoln and also FDR.  Both caused high fear and anxiety by a large portion of the populace until things came to a head soon after.  And, as you probably know, both of those presidents presided over the last 2 Crisis events in prior saeculums.

We may only know in hindsight, I am simply monitoring the situation... the "spark" is rarely the fire itself.  But let's keep an eye on this one Smile .  And of course, it is never so clean cut.  The "catalyst" events are rarely themselves the thing of sea change but ramp up to it.  Thus, general mood shifts and movement within the Turning itself.  That's how we can gauge the "clock" so-to-speak.
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#6
(06-21-2018, 12:01 PM)TheNomad Wrote: With respect, please do not spend 90% of your reply with correcting the OP and discoursing based on your political philosophy.  It is off-topic and does not serve the intended purpose of the thread and dare I say approaching SPAM.  Please truncate your replies to my posts accordingly.  Thanks for your cooperation.  Now that I have addressed the 90% of your reply, the other 10% is basically the same as the other 90% except your prefaced it with the original question from the OP as if you were about to address the OP.  I don't want to block anyone but this is unproductive and I will if the behavior is not modified.  Thanks again.

The physical analogue that I use  is that bad behavior in the 3T is to storing oily rags -- things that eventually catch fire in spontaneous combustion.  There need be no spark.  Bad 3T behavior includes bad business, mindless mass culture, inequity in public services, neglect of vulnerable people, racist and classist ideologies... People who do such things and get calamitous results often are told after the fact "What were you thinking?"

The problem was that they weren't thinking. I often see a financial panic leading into the Crisis, a panic that follows an investment bubble that devours capital that might have been used differently. I guess that many people think that even if they are investing in $@!+ they believe that they can sell before people start to realize that the investment is $#!+. Most people find excuses (they will pay taxes that reduce their gain) for not getting out when the exit is open. Those excuses keep them in the investment too long. Then comes the Panic of 1857, the Great Stock Market Crash of 1929, or the  real-estate meltdown of 2008. These come about a lifetime apart, which fits the theory if not proving it. The most infamous bubbles lead to the biggest crashes, destroy people's complacent confidence in the economy, and destabilize the political reality.

A threadmaster does remove spammers from the forum, and he seems not to find me troublesome.  The general understanding is that SPAM is either irrelevant stuff (let us say links to sport scores, sport being not particularly relevant to this forum) or attempts to link to commercial entities (as in "Find a good lawyer in Kansas City" or "Get high-quality roller-bearings in India". I am one of the fastest to seek that spammers be excised from this forum.

If there is a blatant error, then we all have the right to correct it. Yes, some of us have read the theory and have our own interpretations. Howe and Strauss have missed things -- or not recognized them at the time.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#7
(06-21-2018, 06:03 AM)TheNomad Wrote: The Fourth Turning text conceptual framework cites a catalyst as being an event which (sometimes combined with other events or things) can cause a TRIGGER within a Turning; redistributing public opinion in shocking and even revelatory ways.  Public opinion then determines mood and major public mood swing can indicate collective movement within the Turning. 

Is this a catalyst occurring right now?  Does it reveal any information or indicator concerning the what comes next?

This is precisely the problem. We have two competing versions of mood, mode and movement. They are almost diametrically opposed. Neither is dominant enough to overcome the other, though the Trumpist version is giving it a real go. Part of the problem, perhaps the biggest part, is a divided focus. The SJW faction is pulling the progressive version away from economic parity, which is the strongest and most uniting issue on the left, toward minority issues that divide their own movement. The Trumpists are fanning resentment from their side, while focusing on economic issues that enrich their patrons.

As long as this remains visceral, the right will continue to win ... or not lose, at least. Add to this the decline in the acceptance of truth as unitary, and this looks very ugly. Will that be enough to create a call to action? I don't know. So far, not so good.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#8
(06-21-2018, 11:52 AM)tg63 Wrote: I'm skeptical of it being a catalyst. To this point it has triggered widespread condemnation, but I don't see signs of it spiraling into something bigger. Of course that could change ... it certainly warrants monitoring (aside from the obvious reasons that it bears monitoring).

I agree on both counts. The only precedent for times like these are Nazi Germany and Stalin's Soviet Union. Godwin's Law aside, are we disarmed by our inability to describe tyranny in terms strong enough to trigger a responses, but mild enough to keep the response within the political realm?
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#9
(06-21-2018, 12:09 PM)TheNomad Wrote:
(06-21-2018, 11:52 AM)tg63 Wrote: I'm skeptical of it being a catalyst. To this point it has triggered widespread condemnation, but I don't see signs of it spiraling into something bigger. Of course that could change ... it certainly warrants monitoring (aside from the obvious reasons that it bears monitoring).

My post was based on the idea I get the feeling this issue is being bloated to the point of it no longer being about the actual subject matter but a belated explosion toward a regime and ALL its stances - that have been an accursed thing since the last election by many.  If I am correct, things similar to that happened to/around Lincoln and also FDR.  Both caused high fear and anxiety by a large portion of the populace until things came to a head soon after.  And, as you probably know, both of those presidents presided over the last 2 Crisis events in prior saeculums.

We may only know in hindsight, I am simply monitoring the situation... the "spark" is rarely the fire itself.  But let's keep an eye on this one Smile .  And of course, it is never so clean cut.  The "catalyst" events are rarely themselves the thing of sea change but ramp up to it.  Thus, general mood shifts and movement within the Turning itself.  That's how we can gauge the "clock" so-to-speak.

Let's say you are right, and this is a response to Trumpism in general. So what?  Perhaps you are trying to define a symptom as the problem, and are making the opposite mistake yourself?  From my POV, that's exactly the case.  

Unrelated but indicative: the football coach at Washington State University posted a highly doctored video of Barrack Obama proposing a world government. He was called on it, and admitted it was what it clearly was: untrue.  His response: so what?  The university backed him.  How is this even vaguely normal?
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#10
(06-22-2018, 09:04 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(06-21-2018, 12:09 PM)TheNomad Wrote:
(06-21-2018, 11:52 AM)tg63 Wrote: I'm skeptical of it being a catalyst. To this point it has triggered widespread condemnation, but I don't see signs of it spiraling into something bigger. Of course that could change ... it certainly warrants monitoring (aside from the obvious reasons that it bears monitoring).

My post was based on the idea I get the fe
eling this issue is being bloated to the point of it no longer being about the actual subject matter but a belated explosion toward a regime and ALL its stances - that have been an accursed thing since the last election by many.  If I am correct, things similar to that happened to/around Lincoln and also FDR.  Both caused high fear and anxiety by a large portion of the populace until things came to a head soon after.  And, as you probably know, both of those presidents presided over the last 2 Crisis events in prior saeculums.

We may only know in hindsight, I am simply monitoring the situation... the "spark" is rarely the fire itself.  But let's keep an eye on this one Smile .  And of course, it is never so clean cut.  The "catalyst" events are rarely themselves the thing of sea change but ramp up to it.  Thus, general mood shifts and movement within the Turning itself.  That's how we can gauge the "clock" so-to-speak.

Let's say you are right, and this is a response to Trumpism in general. So what?  Perhaps you are trying to define a symptom as the problem, and are making the opposite mistake yourself?  From my POV, that's exactly the case.  

Maybe I did not communicate properly?  What you say above about "symptom as problem".  I never meant to say the OP issue is - itself - the very thing exactly that is changing national mood.  Actually I did say just exactly the opposite I think.

I said flare events like this can be the little ice cube at the top of the water and then the big iceberg starts to emerge.  It may have nothing to do with this current event.  The events of catalyst simply occur and becomes a springboard for some of explosion or implosion with greater implications.

In this thread, I was asking others to predict or foresee what could come from this or after this (because of this or not) but it being just a symptom when the larger "fever" emerges afterward.

I think this could be something.  I can see this becoming a mega issue later on and being heaped in front of the door of anyone that supported it, was involved with the implementation, did not stand against it, etc.  It could be a "enough is enough" moment that devolves into frustration toward Federalism in general. 

* I am trying my absolute best in this forum to stay away from any political sides or citing color issues or aisle sides.  It is difficult but I believe is not impossible.
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#11
(06-22-2018, 01:45 PM)TheNomad Wrote:
(06-22-2018, 09:04 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(06-21-2018, 12:09 PM)TheNomad Wrote:
(06-21-2018, 11:52 AM)tg63 Wrote: I'm skeptical of it being a catalyst. To this point it has triggered widespread condemnation, but I don't see signs of it spiraling into something bigger. Of course that could change ... it certainly warrants monitoring (aside from the obvious reasons that it bears monitoring).

My post was based on the idea I get the feeling this issue is being bloated to the point of it no longer being about the actual subject matter but a belated explosion toward a regime and ALL its stances - that have been an accursed thing since the last election by many.  If I am correct, things similar to that happened to/around Lincoln and also FDR.  Both caused high fear and anxiety by a large portion of the populace until things came to a head soon after.  And, as you probably know, both of those presidents presided over the last 2 Crisis events in prior saeculums.

We may only know in hindsight, I am simply monitoring the situation... the "spark" is rarely the fire itself.  But let's keep an eye on this one Smile .  And of course, it is never so clean cut.  The "catalyst" events are rarely themselves the thing of sea change but ramp up to it.  Thus, general mood shifts and movement within the Turning itself.  That's how we can gauge the "clock" so-to-speak.

Let's say you are right, and this is a response to Trumpism in general. So what?  Perhaps you are trying to define a symptom as the problem, and are making the opposite mistake yourself?  From my POV, that's exactly the case.  

Maybe I did not communicate properly?  What you say above about "symptom as problem".  I never meant to say the OP issue is - itself - the very thing exactly that is changing national mood.  Actually I did say just exactly the opposite I think.

I said flare events like this can be the little ice cube at the top of the water and then the big iceberg starts to emerge.  It may have nothing to do with this current event.  The events of catalyst simply occur and becomes a springboard for some of explosion or implosion with greater implications.

Unless the ice cube is an outlier of the much larger iceberg -- icebergs do not grow from ice cubes. Icebergs head toward the equator and slowly shrink as they enter increasingly-warm waters at lower latitudes. The iceberg that sank the Titanic was already shrinking rapidly as the Titanic was making its catastrophic approach. Icebergs typically calve off ice-sheets; they were originally snow or other frozen precipitation such as sleet, freezing rain, or (much less likely) hail.  


Quote:In this thread, I was asking others to predict or foresee what could come from this or after this (because of this or not) but it being just a symptom when the larger "fever" emerges afterward.

It's not until the Crisis approaches its end that we perceive some sort of inevitability that somehow escaped us for so long. I can see many possible results from a Trump Presidency, and they range from nuclear war to a mass rejection by Americans of a President that the come to dislike in a free election or two. I can also imagine Donald Trump having a role like Lenin in the founding of a "Union of Christian and Corporate States", with even nastier people as successors. I can even imagine something that has never happened in American history but has happened in many countries in which democratic processes are severely compromised: a military coup.

Americans might end up repudiating Donald Trump for his despotic and dictatorial tendencies, his cruelty, and his corruption. Americans might also be obliged to accept these as the only possible ways of maintaining life, property, and the sort of freedom that simply means avoiding imprisonment or execution.

I do not see Donald Trump changing his ways unless he is put under some sort of force that renders him  helpless while in nominal control of the Presidency. That would suggest a military coup in which generals or admirals tell him what he will do as President so that he can avoid being killed or forced to resign. He is too old to make major changes in his personality by choice -- and of course this does not rule out senile dementia.


Quote:I think this could be something.  I can see this becoming a mega issue later on and being heaped in front of the door of anyone that supported it, was involved with the implementation, did not stand against it, etc.  It could be a "enough is enough" moment that devolves into frustration toward Federalism in general. 

...or one that forces us to redefine federalism. A Crisis could result in a peaceful change of the American political system into a parliamentary system as Canada has (Canada became independent of the UK after the British parliament had become a democratic institution, and had no problems with a Westminster-style parliament as our Founding Fathers had with a Parliament replete with puppets of the hated King George III) or a semi-parliamentary system. Perhaps after losing our complacency about the seams in our system, we will sew those tightly shut with Constitutional restraints upon those political actors as invariably appear. This said, government by lobbyist absolutely must go if we are to have a democracy. Transparency, or the WYSIWYG (What You See Is What You Get) principle is essential to a working democracy.

Quote:*
Quote: I am trying my absolute best in this forum to stay away from any political sides or citing color issues or aisle sides.  It is difficult but I believe is not impossible.


At this point I would accept a conservative President who operates with the integrity, decency, erudition, respect for legal and diplomatic tradition, and freedom from demagoguery of Barack Obama even if that means the elimination of the welfare state, the privatization of the public sector (to the highest bidder) simply to pay off the public debt, the subordination of workers to owners and managers -- basically a society in which the highest purpose of anyone is to create wealth for the enrichment and pampering of the economic elites of ownership and management. If such is what it takes to stop catastrophic wars, to prevent the appearance of torture chambers and brutalization camps, a legal and penal system that enforces mass suffering in the name of the leader, and create economic progress, then so be it. Democracy does not mean that one gets one's way. Elections have consequences. If Americans want to believe that they are Christians even if the Gospel that they believe was really written by Ayn Rand, then so be it. 

Democracy is no guarantee of the wisdom of the masses.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#12
(06-22-2018, 01:45 PM)TheNomad Wrote: Maybe I did not communicate properly?  What you say above about "symptom as problem".  I never meant to say the OP issue is - itself - the very thing exactly that is changing national mood.  Actually I did say just exactly the opposite I think.

I said flare events like this can be the little ice cube at the top of the water and then the big iceberg starts to emerge.  It may have nothing to do with this current event.  The events of catalyst simply occur and becomes a springboard for some of explosion or implosion with greater implications.

In this thread, I was asking others to predict or foresee what could come from this or after this (because of this or not) but it being just a symptom when the larger "fever" emerges afterward.

I think this could be something.  I can see this becoming a mega issue later on and being heaped in front of the door of anyone that supported it, was involved with the implementation, did not stand against it, etc.  It could be a "enough is enough" moment that devolves into frustration toward Federalism in general. 

* I am trying my absolute best in this forum to stay away from any political sides or citing color issues or aisle sides.  It is difficult but I believe is not impossible.

Crises happen because something gets too far out of whack. What it is is always questionable ... Until it isn't. Obviously, I have a theory that may prove true, because it's based on stupid decisions that are now be recognized as such. I certainly can be wrong, but I'll stand by my analysis until it's shown to be.

We've had decades of unjustified wealth transfer, running parallel with an economy changing faster than average people are able to adjust to it. At the moment, those average people are aligning with the oligarchs, because they have been convinced that their grief is caused by"others" they dislike for other reasons. It's neat, clean and wrong. Somehow this gets resolved. It may not be to my liking.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#13
(06-23-2018, 10:02 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(06-22-2018, 01:45 PM)TheNomad Wrote: Maybe I did not communicate properly?  What you say above about "symptom as problem".  I never meant to say the OP issue is - itself - the very thing exactly that is changing national mood.  Actually I did say just exactly the opposite I think.

I said flare events like this can be the little ice cube at the top of the water and then the big iceberg starts to emerge.  It may have nothing to do with this current event.  The events of catalyst simply occur and becomes a springboard for some of explosion or implosion with greater implications.

In this thread, I was asking others to predict or foresee what could come from this or after this (because of this or not) but it being just a symptom when the larger "fever" emerges afterward.

I think this could be something.  I can see this becoming a mega issue later on and being heaped in front of the door of anyone that supported it, was involved with the implementation, did not stand against it, etc.  It could be a "enough is enough" moment that devolves into frustration toward Federalism in general. 

* I am trying my absolute best in this forum to stay away from any political sides or citing color issues or aisle sides.  It is difficult but I believe is not impossible.

Crises happen because something gets too far out of whack.  What it is is always questionable ... Until it isn't. Obviously, I have a theory that may prove true, because it's based on stupid decisions that are now be recognized as such. I certainly can be wrong, but I'll stand by my analysis until it's shown to be.  

We've had decades of unjustified wealth transfer, running parallel with an economy changing faster than average people are able to adjust to.  At the moment, those average people are aligning with the oligarchs, because they have been convinced that their grief is caused by"others" they dislike for other reasons.  It's neat, clean and wrong.  Somehow this gets resolved.  It may not be to my liking.

The oligarchic order will make things even harder for almost everyone. It will set economic priorities, all tending to intensify wealth transfer and to give the oligarchs more power over people's lives. The oligarchs will of course have command of the three instruments most effective in controlling the masses -- media, the police, and the legal system. Anything that gets in its way will be vulnerable to 'removal with extreme prejudice'. Think of some South American countries during their 'dirty wars'. What our political leaders in the 1970s and 1980s promoted elsewhere on behalf of "American interests (read, corporate investments) abroad" -- a prime example of a thought-destroying meme" will be operating here. The consequence is that about everyone will feel as if he is in a bad colonial order without knowing where the center of power is. 

Things get worse, but we are expected to put on broad theatrical smiles and endorse the nastiness as the best thing that ever happened to us. When we start seeing the elites building castles and palaces with near-forced labor and get nothing out of it we will be told that the problem is that the elites aren't building enough castles and palaces, so we need to work harder and endure pay cuts and unpaid overtime to make such possible.

That happens when the oligarchic elites operate without conscience. We will have the sort of economic and political order that usually precedes a proletarian revolution.

Such is my fear if much goes wrong. Such elites will consolidate power just as the Crisis Era is due for an end. We would have a plutocratic mirror image of Communist regimes, complete with repression and barely-hidden mass despair. Because incentives will be gone, economic efficiency will erode. Fear becomes the sole motivator, and that simply degrades whatever compet4ence people have. Nobody will believe anything, especially in the economic basis of the system or the media outlets that regularly disgorge Orwellian propaganda. Words themselves become lies and cripple the ability of anyone to think.

This is one possibility. The other is part of the masses that think themselves told that they are privileged because of ethnicity or culture decide that they are simply getting the shaft a bit less than others -- but that they are being cheated out of their lives.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#14
(06-21-2018, 06:03 AM)TheNomad Wrote: The Fourth Turning text conceptual framework cites a catalyst as being an event which (sometimes combined with other events or things) can cause a TRIGGER within a Turning; redistributing public opinion in shocking and even revelatory ways.  Public opinion then determines mood and major public mood swing can indicate collective movement within the Turning. 

Is this a catalyst occurring right now?  Does it reveal any information or indicator concerning the what comes next?

[Image: DgNbVmGX4AAHl5I.jpg]

It could be a catalyst, probably not the only one. I say it COULD be because Trump is going to CONTINUE to push this issue. He is a racist who wants to make America white again. He won't stop trying to keep the "rapists, drug dealers and criminals" from entering the USA, whom he assumes the Mexicans and Central Americans are. "They're not sending their best" Drump said in his campaign announcement 3 years ago. "They have lots of problems and are bringing their problems with (them)" he said. This is his core mission. He wants people to come here from "Norway." Of course, he forgets that people from Norway are liberals too, so the goal of keeping America Republican would suffer no matter where immigrants come from. So I imagine he's going to crack down on all of them eventually, except maybe the ones that his client and donor companies want to hire. 

That's what he calls the merit system: allow people in who actually DO take jobs away from Americans, and keep out the ones who take jobs Americans DON'T want. And meanwhile just deport them, in the cruelist way possible as a deterrent; don't go after the businesses who need them, and for goodness sakes (Trump might be saying) don't make sure that the businesses treat the immigrants well or pay them a living wage!
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#15
Idea for an anti-Trump placard: "Donald Trump is unhealthy for children and other living things".
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#16
(06-23-2018, 12:55 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(06-21-2018, 06:03 AM)TheNomad Wrote: The Fourth Turning text conceptual framework cites a catalyst as being an event which (sometimes combined with other events or things) can cause a TRIGGER within a Turning; redistributing public opinion in shocking and even revelatory ways.  Public opinion then determines mood and major public mood swing can indicate collective movement within the Turning. 

Is this a catalyst occurring right now?  Does it reveal any information or indicator concerning the what comes next?

[Image: DgNbVmGX4AAHl5I.jpg]

It could be a catalyst, probably not the only one. I say it COULD be because Trump is going to CONTINUE to push this issue. He is a racist who wants to make America white again. He won't stop trying to keep the "rapists, drug dealers and criminals" from entering the USA, whom he assumes the Mexicans and Central Americans are. "They're not sending their best" Drump said in his campaign announcement 3 years ago. "They have lots of problems and are bringing their problems with (them)" he said. This is his core mission. He wants people to come here from "Norway." Of course, he forgets that people from Norway are liberals too, so the goal of keeping America Republican would suffer no matter where immigrants come from. So I imagine he's going to crack down on all of them eventually, except maybe the ones that his client and donor companies want to hire. 

That's what he calls the merit system: allow people in who actually DO take jobs away from Americans, and keep out the ones who take jobs Americans DON'T want. And meanwhile just deport them, in the cruelist way possible as a deterrent; don't go after the businesses who need them, and for goodness sakes (Trump might be saying) don't make sure that the businesses treat the immigrants well or pay them a living wage!

You said "it could be a catalyst...." and that was it.

The rest of your reply was talking at me expounding your political beliefs and core ideology.  I am sad this is what we are now.  I'm doing an experiment about this, how in on-line interaction, we can no longer remain focused and only read what others say with the intent on what we are going to reply to it.  As if the same as church pastors walking around with their bible ready at any moment to engage others with the sole unconscious intent of converting or spreading their own personal gospel.

My OP and the question it raised, the two persons who responded did so only to espouse their beliefs.  Not to address the OP.  It is not only here, but it seems everywhere now. 

Is there anyone reading who wants to discuss this current event and if it could be a catalyst toward great Public Mood shift or manifestation of shift?  Where Public Mood can offer a glimpse into location within the Turning?  Hope to hear from you.
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#17
The real situation I described is not beliefs or ideology, but it does suggest that it might be a catalyst and mood shift, because Trump is going to continue to push the issue. That he will, is not a statement of my ideology, silly; it is my estimate of what he will do, based on what I know of him and his behavior. That continued push will make it part of the current crisis mood, because it won't be just a passing issue. Those who follow Trump on this are really opposed to immigration, and they DO want to keep America white. That is also their political purpose too, since more immigrants mean more demographic shifts toward Democrats, which the right desperately wants to stop, and which feeds into the political split which is itself the heart of the current crisis. The cold civil war IS our 4T, and whether it becomes hot or not is one question about "what comes next." As you know, that question will be answered in 2025, and the following 4 years will be the climax and end of the fourth turning.

What is happening under Trump is several issues coming to the fore, which includes the new gun control movement in the wake of the Parkland shooting. David Hogg has now weighed in on both of these issues. The new trade war is another potential catalyst, because of the way it's being carried out by the Drump. This in addition to the women's issues and economic fairness issues, plus the climate issue which will be pressed again with a huge march on Sept.8. What it amounts to, is that The Donald now personifies the crisis, and he polarizes America on all these issues. Gun control alone already had the potential to cause civil strife, along with Trump and the GOP's stubborn refusals to act on it; and certainly tempers are flaring and will continue to flare if Trump is also going to continue to violate all human norms in carrying out his make america white again policy-- which all indications are that he will indeed. That he WILL, making it a catalyst, was my point; not merely MY view about the issue itself, Mr. Nomad Sir.

Good slogan Mr. Brower.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#18
Another aspect of the current 4T, however, is the extent to which many on the left, on the right, and many who may be a blend of extreme left and right, fall prey to conspiracy theories. This is a descent into irrationality, which is already a deep trend in America. Brower referred to the denial of evolution, and then there's the denial of climate change. Genuine respect for facts and truth seems to be in the process of being replaced by fake news and conspiracy theory. A crisis mood certainly benefits from people acting only on passionate delusions. That's what happened in Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy, and it is happening in Trumpist America, fed largely by Trump and his alternative facts universe. This is serious delusional stuff, and it certainly drives the alt-right and their prejudices.

The biggest delusions on the left concern its obsession with the Clintons, especially Hillary even though she is already irrelevant. That does not stop their passionate denials of reality, with their unwillingness to see any facts regarding the Trumped-up email scandal which was never anything but a Republican propaganda program, and which is based on no facts whatsoever; along with bogus charges against her regarding the Clinton Foundation and Uranium One. Some zealots even feed into the oligarchy's purposes and the purposes of their Republican representatives by calling Hillary the most corrupt politician in history. This is made worse by conspiracy theories about how the DNC rigged the 2016 primary election and stole it from Bernie. I favored Bernie and his policies myself over Hillary, but this does not excuse continued dissension and destructive squabbling over false charges, alternative facts and conspiracy theories about what happened in New York City and Nevada, and DNC funding agreements with the Hillary campaign, all of which are bogus charges and add up to no basis whatever to believe that Hillary stole the election from Bernie. And the left even imitates Steve Bannon's slogans about the "deep state," which is only government employees doing their job and keeping the state and the country operating while the idiots are in charge, and which Bannon and his ilk want to destroy so they can't protect America from the oligarchs. And yet the zealots continue to help the oligarchs by dishing out this crap, and it amounts to self-destruction on the left which only helps the oligarchs to cement their power over us even more.

Conspiracy theories about JFK and 9-11 are the grandaddy of this irrational delusional mood, which have paved the way for the current quicksand. If we cannot conduct our politics based on facts, what sort of republic will we have? The answer is a state where reactive passions rule over us, and nothing can be accomplished because we are incapable of dealing with reality and are unwilling to work with one another across aisles and walls between us.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
Reply
#19
(06-24-2018, 04:30 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The real situation I described is not beliefs or ideology, but it does suggest that it might be a catalyst and mood shift, because Trump is going to continue to push the issue. That he will, is not a statement of my ideology, silly; it is my estimate of what he will do, based on what I know of him and his behavior. That continued push will make it part of the current crisis mood, because it won't be just a passing issue. Those who follow Trump on this are really opposed to immigration, and they DO want to keep America white. That is also their political purpose too, since more immigrants mean more demographic shifts toward Democrats, which the right desperately wants to stop, and which feeds into the political split which is itself the heart of the current crisis. The cold civil war IS our 4T, and whether it becomes hot or not is one question about "what comes next." As you know, that question will be answered in 2025, and the following 4 years will be the climax and end of the fourth turning.

What is happening under Trump is several issues coming to the fore, which includes the new gun control movement in the wake of the Parkland shooting. David Hogg has now weighed in on both of these issues. The new trade war is another potential catalyst, because of the way it's being carried out by the Drump. This in addition to the women's issues and economic fairness issues, plus the climate issue which will be pressed again with a huge march on Sept.8. What it amounts to, is that The Donald now personifies the crisis, and he polarizes America on all these issues. Gun control alone already had the potential to cause civil strife, along with Trump and the GOP's stubborn refusals to act on it; and certainly tempers are flaring and will continue to flare if Trump is also going to continue to violate all human norms in carrying out his make america white again policy-- which all indications are that he will indeed. That he WILL, making it a catalyst, was my point; not merely MY view about the issue itself, Mr. Nomad Sir.

Good slogan Mr. Brower.

That he will, is not a statement of my ideology, silly; it is my estimate of what he will do, based on what I know of him and his behavior.

Really?  According to you, someone will do something not according to your political dogma laser beam aimed at them but because it's your estimation of their behavior.

Did you review that before pressing REPLY?  I think some do not even realize how embedded their doctrines ARE when looking at the outside world.  I did not ask if was a catalyst based on someone being a wanker or a politician, the transcendent event itself - blamed on no one and certainly not with the intent on judging them for it - can illuminate.  I don't want YOUR COLORED LENSES on the end result (nor mine). 

How can you not see it pollutes the scope?  We are far enough away to not have some knee-jerk reaction to FDR and his policies so we look there and can see some catalyst events that caused mood sway.  If we could only manage to separate ourselves now.  We might see the future, however limited.  Until then, all we have is colloquial barbarism over human idiosyncrasies.
Reply
#20
(06-24-2018, 04:47 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Another aspect of the current 4T, however, is the extent to which many on the left, on the right, and many who may be a blend of extreme left and right, fall prey to conspiracy theories. This is a descent into irrationality, which is already a deep trend in America. Brower referred to the denial of evolution, and then there's the denial of climate change. Genuine respect for facts and truth seems to be in the process of being replaced by fake news and conspiracy theory. A crisis mood certainly benefits from people acting only on passionate delusions. That's what happened in Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy, and it is happening in Trumpist America, fed largely by Trump and his alternative facts universe. This is serious delusional stuff, and it certainly drives the alt-right and their prejudices.

The biggest delusions on the left concern its obsession with the Clintons, especially Hillary even though she is already irrelevant. That does not stop their passionate denials of reality, with their unwillingness to see any facts regarding the Trumped-up email scandal which was never anything but a Republican propaganda program, and which is based on no facts whatsoever; along with bogus charges against her regarding the Clinton Foundation and Uranium One. Some zealots even feed into the oligarchy's purposes and the purposes of their Republican representatives by calling Hillary the most corrupt politician in history. This is made worse by conspiracy theories about how the DNC rigged the 2016 primary election and stole it from Bernie. I favored Bernie and his policies myself over Hillary, but this does not excuse continued dissension and destructive squabbling over false charges, alternative facts and conspiracy theories about what happened in New York City and Nevada, and DNC funding agreements with the Hillary campaign, all of which are bogus charges and add up to no basis whatever to believe that Hillary stole the election from Bernie. And the left even imitates Steve Bannon's slogans about the "deep state," which is only government employees doing their job and keeping the state and the country operating while the idiots are in charge, and which Bannon and his ilk want to destroy so they can't protect America from the oligarchs. And yet the zealots continue to help the oligarchs by dishing out this crap, and it amounts to self-destruction on the left which only helps the oligarchs to cement their power over us even more.

Conspiracy theories about JFK and 9-11 are the grandaddy of this irrational delusional mood, which have paved the way for the current quicksand. If we cannot conduct our politics based on facts, what sort of republic will we have? The answer is a state where reactive passions rule over us, and nothing can be accomplished because we are incapable of dealing with reality and are unwilling to work with one another across aisles and walls between us.

If we cannot conduct our politics based on facts, what sort of republic will we have?

I only want to know who determines fact?  It is based on your subjective consciousness, and that is not fact at all.  Pointing to "fact" only when it mimics your own subjective beliefs.  Not even Factcheckers can be that succinct; sooner or later they will contradict you and no longer be "factual".  If a Factchecker is not factual, what is her data then? 

Also, when one chooses to exclude data for Factual Consideration, that means you have edited.  Edited Fact is only subjective hyperbole.  It is not factual.  You are not allowed to comment on certain things when you have edited the data pool for your own subjective interpretation.  You don't get that respect.  All facts must be discovered in a non-subjective (by definition, objective and unprejudiced) manner.  That is why judges recuse themselves from cases where personal opinion (subjectivity) might become inherent in the ruling.  That is why all courts are processed to be as impartial as possible to avoid SUBJECTIVITY.

Who checks your facts?  From where do your Facts originate?  When "Fact" is different from your personal subjective belief system, does it cease being Fact?  Can you name an example? 

DO YOUR FACTUAL SYSTEMS UPDATE WITH PREVIOUSLY UNKNOWN FACTS OR ARE THEY UNWAVERING TRUTHS OF ALL TIME?
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