Unkind, Risk Averse and Untrusting

[beechnut79]

If this is today's society, can we change it?

Is it time for us to reassess how we've bee asserting ourselves in life? Do we know what it is we really want?

We have become more self-obsessed, more narrowly focused, as the public domain seems increasingly dangerous. This despite reports that incidents of personal violence have been decreasing. Seems like the opposite has happened as news programs are chock full of stories of mass shooting and murder-suicide incidents.

It is harder to help others than it used to be, and doing so in any structured way has become fraught with bureaucracy and barriers, so that where altruism still exists it is harder to express. Was this attitude originally fostered by the classic Smokey the Bear commercials? ONLY YOU can do it obviously applies to much more than just preventing forest fires. We have been thoroughly brainwashed to believe that we need to be constantly acting on our own behalf. We are also brainwashed to believe that we constantly need a purpose--something to strive toward. Leisurely pursuits seem to be more and more looked down upon, helping to make liars out of so many futurists who once predicted that the advanced technology most of us now kneel at the feet of would create increasing amounts of leisure time. Too much emphasis on work and productivity, however, can be aggressive and combative, and this in turn leaves us feeling weak and tired. Too little time and energy to explore what really turns you on and the higher purpose it can serve.

We increasingly devalue older people, while we live in an increasingly ageing society. Ageism still exists in employment despite laws that have been in place since the 1960s or 1970s. Employers have vast ways of getting around this so that any potential lawsuits can be very difficult. We have also devalued those who don't have high incomes despite the fact that racial or sexual slurs can cut off your livelihood as Roseanne Barr has found out along with many others.

A link to an Adobe articles which goes into greater depth can be found here:

https://www.google.com/search?q=time+to+...00&bih=749

Would love to hear some of your thoughts on all this.

[David Horn]

Without quoting the OP, I can respond in general.  

We crossed an invisible Rubicon roughly 45 years ago.  Maybe it was the disillusionment of the Nixon era, or maybe something else entirely, but everyone got rerouted into the hamster cage.  Add a generous helping of electronic propaganda, and you get something similar to brainwashing on a societal scale.  For some reason, it's been worse in the US than elsewhere in the advanced world.  That may be the product of the entertainment industry we've dominated for 100 years.  In any case, it's now fully internalized to the point that alternatives aren't even considered.

So let's examine the living generations, and see whether there is something insidious here:

• GIs: nearly gone from the scene, and no longer engaged in the public sphere.  If you find a GI that is still willing to share, you'll find someone baffled by the mess we've created, and probably more than a little judgmental about it
  
• Silent: departing the scene as well, but still trying to manage the process in a structured manner.  Think Nancy Pelosi as a prime example.  She's unwilling to step far from the party line, but equally unwilling to hand over power.  Most of the Silent Majority that devolved into the Evangelical RW originated in this generation
  
• Boomers: if any group deserves blame for being congenitally stupid, it's Boomers.  We've grabbed for every brass ring on the Merry-Go-Round, and missed then all … but we still believe they're there for the taking.  That said, I sincerely hope that the next President is a Boomer, because we're unlikely to have enough fire to solve problems under Xer leadership
  
• Xers: started cynical and are now either Trumpists, ready to battle Trump or morose.  Since they are the ones raising the children and launching the next wave of young adults, they have plenty on their plates … especially given the piss-poor support they've gotten.  It should be noted that they are the generation that bought the self-sufficiency nonsense most completely, so they are the most brainwashed generation too
  
• Millies: Need to get their act together and soon.  They may be engaged, for all I know,  They operate outside the domain I fully understand, using social media as connective tissue.  If 2018 becomes the start of the long march back, it will be the Millies doing it.  If not, they will also be responsible for that.
  

So consulting my Magic 8-Ball, the response is Cloudy, try again later.

[pbrower2a]

(06-26-2018, 01:38 PM)beechnut79 Wrote: If this is today's society, can we change it?

If we don't change it and we survive, then either it will change us in ways that we do not choose, or else our society will go on some disastrous course that brings about its ruin.

Quote:Is it time for us to reassess how we've been asserting ourselves in life? Do we know what it is we really want?

Advertising and propaganda exist to make people think that they want something... without contemplating rational causes to support what the advertiser or propagandist suggests for us.

Quote:We have become more self-obsessed, more narrowly focused, as the public domain seems increasingly dangerous. This despite reports that incidents of personal violence have been decreasing. Seems like the opposite has happened as news programs are chock full of stories of mass shooting and murder-suicide incidents.

Bad news travels fast. Thus the mass shootings which are obvious outliers of human (or inhuman) behavior become national news. Of course, in a country with thoroughly-controlled media that exclude all else, the predictable message might be "the potato crop is in".

This said, the decay of civility in American politics bodes ill. A similar decay preceded the American Civil War between people who thought slavery abominable and others who thought it was a wondrous institution necessary for settling the western frontier and bringing about economic progress. Abusers and exploiters, whether slave-masters in the Old South or the now-disbanded (and disgraced) pedophile group North American Man-Boy Love Association, often delude themselves into believing that their abuse and exploitation is benefice and that they can convert others to their side.

Quote:It is harder to help others than it used to be, and doing so in any structured way has become fraught with bureaucracy and barriers, so that where altruism still exists it is harder to express. Was this attitude originally fostered by the classic Smokey the Bear commercials? ONLY YOU can do it obviously applies to much more than just preventing forest fires. We have been thoroughly brainwashed to believe that we need to be constantly acting on our own behalf. We are also brainwashed to believe that we constantly need a purpose--something to strive toward. Leisurely pursuits seem to be more and more looked down upon, helping to make liars out of so many futurists who once predicted that the advanced technology most of us now kneel at the feet of would create increasing amounts of leisure time. Too much emphasis on work and productivity, however, can be aggressive and combative, and this in turn leaves us feeling weak and tired. Too little time and energy to explore what really turns you on and the higher purpose it can serve.

We need to find ways of avoiding bureaucracies that will never serve our moral objectives. If you dislike giant, bureaucratic corporations with their low, rigid, impenetrable glass ceilings, then start your own small business even if it is nothing more than a food truck. Local food pantries may be more reliable than the food stamp apparatus once the Hard Right does to it what it wants. Because the post-modern economy can no longer support the need for workweeks lasting 60 hours or more, we will have either leisure or idleness, and the difference between fulfilling leisure and unfulfilling idleness is that one has the resources (including money and learning) to find something worthy of doing. Remember: bureaucracy is good only at controlling people and creating paperwork, which suggests employment for the right sort of person -- but Ludwig van Beethoven didn't need any bureaucracy to tell him how to compose his symphonies, Thomas Alva Edison didn't rely on a bureaucracy for inspiration and methods for his inventions, Albert Einstein needed no bureaucracy (except for his income as a patent clerk in Switzerland) to overturn much of the common knowledge in physics, and Pablo Picasso needed no bureaucracy to help him paint. It is telling that the finest works of Dmitri Shostakovich (his string quartets) were the ones least under the influence of any bureaucratic entity.

Don't forget that there are plenty of local opportunities for volunteer work where there is too little money involved to tempt bureaucrats to join in.

So if you can start a small business, then you are quite possibly the true hero of capitalism -- a capitalist! If you can create, then create!

Quote:We increasingly devalue older people, while we live in an increasingly ageing society. Ageism still exists in employment despite laws that have been in place since the 1960s or 1970s. Employers have vast ways of getting around this so that any potential lawsuits can be very difficult. We have also devalued those who don't have high incomes despite the fact that racial or sexual slurs can cut off your livelihood as Roseanne Barr has found out along with many others.

I have a good memory of times going back to the 1960s, and I paid attention to people who were old when I was a child, so I have memories or at least recollections of others' memories going back to the 1890s. I knew some people who were the in the last (but failed) wave of western settlers. Had there been a little more water in western Nebraska, then I might be writing this material there and not in Michigan. I remember hearing a story that a sister of my great-great grandmother was a "Miss Kitty" in Deadwood, South Dakota. I saw her obituary, and the praise of her as a sophisticated Christian woman was ludicrous for being overdone. I know what she was doing operating a saloon in a vice-laden city.

If we have enough prosperity, age is not a bar to work that depends upon creativity and imagination. It might be to heavy physical labor or to any work that requires 70-80 hours of work in a weak, as for a medical intern. I'm 62, so I am old enough that advertisers consider me trash... but I also know how to get along without dependence upon the consumer society for my self-gratification. Culture enriches life, and mindless entertainment blunts it.

As for racial and sexual slurs... yes, we need to be careful about what we say about minorities -- ethnic, religious, and sexual. Rosanne Barr might have gotten away with calling some dumb black crook a dumb black crook, but calling Valerie Jarrett an 'ape' is stupid because Valerie Jarrett (connected to a brilliant and unusually-honorable politician whom Rosanne Barr derides) is anything but stupid*. We all know about prominent people whose careers have ended because they have been linked to sexual harassment or even borderline rape... a prominent person who depends upon personal fame or at least recognition for doing one's job, then one might as well live honorably as must a bank clerk and have neither the means for abusing power to the detriment of humanity nor mass-familiarity that can be turned against one, as with Harvey Swinestein.

Part of our current distress is that we have political leadership certifiably worse than what our society expects of us. We usually elect people that we perceive to be better than we are, people who fit our ideals even if we can't achieve those ideals themselves. Donald Trump wallows in the ethical gutter. I would never talk about grabbing women by their crotches, I would never mock people with disabilities, I would never praise despots or dictators at the expense of democratic leaders, and I would never smear great chunks of humanity. Doing so in the job that I have most recently held would get me fired. Another part is that our economic elites act as if they are the ones whose satisfaction is the measure of goodness that they insist that we all recognize.

Soft standards for out economic and political elites who act as if they have the right and duty to treat us badly alienate me -- and I am one of millions who cannot believe otherwise. The way things are going we may be headed for some apocalypse that destroys much of our wealth and destroys many of our institutions so that we must start over from scratch. Think of Japan in 1945.

*That is not to say that brilliance excuses everything. There are wayward intellectuals who deserve our disdain, shysters able to overpower our best interest, and terrorists like Ted Kaczynski. William Shirer particularly lamented the 'intellectual gangster' character of several Nazi figures in The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich. Brilliance is worthless unless it does good for humanity.

[Eric the Green]

One possibility is that we have to fight our way through this cold civil war fourth turning for the next 10 years, and then IF the best side wins (not the Republicans, whatever it is), then a time of greater consensus will follow, as promised by the authors of T4T. It won't be as "high" as the American High, because it will be more like the 1T that followed the hot civil war. But usually, 1Ts are more civil, and kind, or at least polite-- at least if you more-or-less go along with the program. Then comes the chance to fulfill the sixties awakening in the next one. You can bet that it will fulfill it too; take that to the bank! The neo-sixties, cosmically guaranteed! There were never more "trusting" people than the flower children. We never reach full paradise in our lifetimes or that of our grandchildren, and flaws and lessons will remain as they did before; but the cycles turn, and more-trusting times will come.

"For the first time in a long while, I look forward 10 years, and I see light" -- Cameron Kasky

[Eric the Green]

And for the first time in several years, I see a possible replacement for Justin in my signature line! Well, maybe an addition at least!

[beechnut79]

(06-27-2018, 01:04 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: And for the first time in several years, I see a possible replacement for Justin in my signature line! Well, maybe an addition at least!

There are lessons that remind us we are responsible for ourselves - for what we think, say and do. I am afraid that Smokey the Bear was on target there. This factor is doubled or even tripled in this age of relentless social media. There are times, however, when I feel that the reactions are too strong, such as the case of the waitress who got fired because she made a social media comment about a table that was noisy, took up the table for a long time yet only left a five dollar tip. Perhaps some reprimand would have sufficed there. I believe there was a movement started on social media to get her reinstated. Don't know whether it was successful though.

Incivility does seem to be at what we can hope is its peak illumination currently. What do greed and propaganda offer us? More misery for most to be sure. Mastery of the elites disguised as satisfaction and success. So far Trump has been a failure if his idea for making America great again meant a return to the days when pussy grabbing and making ethnic slurs is OK. That has definitely been proven false with all the celebrities that have met their downfall through said actions. There can never be a valid excuse, yet what is conveniently forgotten was that when, for example, Cosby was doing his antics it was a time when, for the male gender, a hard penis was as good as hard currency. I often wonder whether we will ever see another time like that. You predict here that the next "high" will not be as high as the one that followed WWII was. Have also heard folks predict that the next awakening may actually be austere and not free and easy such as the last one was.

Do you feel that this is a time for us to reflect upon all that we've accomplished; recognizing our efforts. And if you're not where you want to be, accept yourself with kindness and have the endurance to keep going. (This is a lesson I need to learn as I feel I am definitely not where I want(ed) to be in life. I once had ladies' man dreams which didn't materialize largely due to my Asperger Syndrome although I did have more success during those freer, more swinging times gone by. By the mid-1980s that all came crashing down and it was much harder for me to navigate the social scene beyond that time as the unkindness and lack of friendliness which is the hallmark of this thread began to set in big time). We are quick to translate certin types of energy as failure but if we remove the judgment we just might value the experience.

Concerning my parenthesized post above, do you feel that the term "Ladies' Man" has become derogatory in recent years? I tend to believe that it has.

[David Horn]

(06-27-2018, 12:55 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: One possibility is that we have to fight our way through this cold civil war fourth turning for the next 10 years, and then IF the best side wins (not the Republicans, whatever it is), then a time of greater consensus will follow, as promised by the authors of T4T. It won't be as "high" as the American High, because it will be more like the 1T that followed the hot civil war. But usually, 1Ts are more civil, and kind, or at least polite-- at least if you more-or-less go along with the program. Then comes the chance to fulfill the sixties awakening in the next one. You can bet that it will fulfill it too; take that to the bank! The neo-sixties, cosmically guaranteed! There were never more "trusting" people than the flower children. We never reach full paradise in our lifetimes or that of our grandchildren, and flaws and lessons will remain as they did before; but the cycles turn, and more-trusting times will come.

"For the first time in a long while, I look forward 10 years, and I see light" -- Cameron Kasky

Don't assume that the next 2T will have any resemblance to the last one.  We Boomers were the product of nearly hermetically sealed lives: comfortable if not lush and generally positive on things material.  The next Prophets won't have that experience.  With the middle class being hollowed out, the children of the 2020s and 30s will have more focus on equality than awareness out of basic need to prosper.  Socialism is a more likely outcome of the next 4T than any open-society social awareness meme.

[pbrower2a]

(06-27-2018, 02:02 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(06-27-2018, 12:55 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: One possibility is that we have to fight our way through this cold civil war fourth turning for the next 10 years, and then IF the best side wins (not the Republicans, whatever it is), then a time of greater consensus will follow, as promised by the authors of T4T. It won't be as "high" as the American High, because it will be more like the 1T that followed the hot civil war. But usually, 1Ts are more civil, and kind, or at least polite-- at least if you more-or-less go along with the program. Then comes the chance to fulfill the sixties awakening in the next one. You can bet that it will fulfill it too; take that to the bank! The neo-sixties, cosmically guaranteed! There were never more "trusting" people than the flower children. We never reach full paradise in our lifetimes or that of our grandchildren, and flaws and lessons will remain as they did before; but the cycles turn, and more-trusting times will come.

"For the first time in a long while, I look forward 10 years, and I see light" -- Cameron Kasky

Don't assume that the next 2T will have any resemblance to the last one.  We Boomers were the product of nearly hermetically sealed lives: comfortable if not lush and generally positive on things material.  The next Prophets won't have that experience.  With the middle class being hollowed out, the children of the 2020s and 30s will have more focus on equality than awareness out of basic need to prosper.  Socialism is a more likely outcome of the next 4T than any open-society social awareness meme.

Agreed. If the Trump agenda fully congeals, then the next 2T will be a rejection of the repressive, corrupt, hierarchical, mindless, and inequitable order that reflects you-know-who. The psychedelic expressions of the 1960s and 1970s will be completely irrelevant. That Awakening Era could be a rejection of the small minority of Millennial adults who wield power as successors of Trump seemingly right off the old block, the ones whose idea of social justice is that 2% get the sugar and 98% get the shaft. Religious authorities associated with the Establishment view for political reasons instead of moral convictions could be obvious targets for contempt. Cultural ferment could even be antiquarian, of all things.

As with other Awakening eras, I would expect alcohol use to soar much as it did in the Soviet Union as life was both materially and spiritually impoverished... of course alcohol is an excellent solvent for a conscience.

[Tim Randal Walker]

The double rhythm hints that the next 2T will be of the Apollo type, rather than the Dionysus type. And I expect that the New Prophets will grow up in a rather sullen 1T, perhaps a Gilded Age like 1T.  At best (and here I am being very optimistic) a blank period, similar to the 1T following the Glorious Revolution in England.

BTW, I came across a reference to our "cold civil war" in a book about American sea power, Seablindness by Seth Cropsey. Perhaps this is what this 4T will eventually be called-The Cold Civil War.

[Eric the Green]

(06-27-2018, 02:02 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(06-27-2018, 12:55 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: One possibility is that we have to fight our way through this cold civil war fourth turning for the next 10 years, and then IF the best side wins (not the Republicans, whatever it is), then a time of greater consensus will follow, as promised by the authors of T4T. It won't be as "high" as the American High, because it will be more like the 1T that followed the hot civil war. But usually, 1Ts are more civil, and kind, or at least polite-- at least if you more-or-less go along with the program. Then comes the chance to fulfill the sixties awakening in the next one. You can bet that it will fulfill it too; take that to the bank! The neo-sixties, cosmically guaranteed! There were never more "trusting" people than the flower children. We never reach full paradise in our lifetimes or that of our grandchildren, and flaws and lessons will remain as they did before; but the cycles turn, and more-trusting times will come.

"For the first time in a long while, I look forward 10 years, and I see light" -- Cameron Kasky

Don't assume that the next 2T will have any resemblance to the last one.  We Boomers were the product of nearly hermetically sealed lives: comfortable if not lush and generally positive on things material.  The next Prophets won't have that experience.  With the middle class being hollowed out, the children of the 2020s and 30s will have more focus on equality than awareness out of basic need to prosper.  Socialism is a more likely outcome of the next 4T than any open-society social awareness meme.

Being guided by rather-unambiguous signs from the cosmic cycles of our solar system and Earth, that's why I can make that statement. And my good predictive record is a reason not to dismiss it. Other factors may cause my prediction to fail; we won't know, probably, but perhaps some millennials here will be the older generation then, and will have to deal with the alpha-wave prophets. And they will have at-least an outsiders' view of how it turns out. You may have some good points there. However, I see a potential for economic boom in the late 4T and 1T, given the energy that I think will be revved up. Recall that boom times accompanied the civil war, and I think the next 1T will be the next Gilded Age after our Cold Civil War turning (if it's not too violent, that may turn out to be its name indeed). So while I don't see another American High providing the next prophets with a comfortable childhood, at least for the white ones, I think it will be comfortable enough for the next prophets to seek fulfillment rather than material progress alone. But the next prophets, being like the Missionaries, will have a more outward orientation than boomers, and a greater civic awareness. But, prophets are still prophets, as always, and they will be involved in many spiritual movements just as the missionaries were.

I would not count out social and economic progress returning before the next 2T, with the result that inequities will be smoothed out by then. It seems improbable now, considering how entrenched the oligarchs are today, and how many political guardrails they have erected to block the path of reformers. But as Ryan Deitsch and I both put it, the engines of society will have been revved up to an extreme degree in the 2020s, and in the new Gilded Age there will still be some activism. It will be more "sullen," but also more active with left-over resentments and movements, just like the late 1860s and 1870s. There is still much time for the usual trends of 4T and 1T to happen, and that trend is toward greater civic responsibility and increasing equality. Looking back at the last 4T, despite New Deal reforms, equality was only achieved by high taxes during World War II. Look for something in the late years of this 4T to accomplish this again, and further progress to happen in the following 1T. Equality will probably not go as far yet as last time, but on the other hand the increasingly diverse population will not be denied their role and their opportunities, as much as they were last time.

On the other hand, just as the next 1T will be more active and have more conflict than the last, the next 2T will be somewhat calmer in mood than the last. Things balance out, according to Neptune's transits-- the keeper of the double rhythm. Socialism is a tall order for the USA to ever institute, but I definitely see the sixties returning in many ways, and other radical changes in the late 2040s. That will mean the next Great Society, which will also be extended to other countries. Despite Trumpism and xenophobia now prevalent in response to the migrant crisis I so clearly predicted, globalization will not be stopped, and by the next 2T it will be looked upon as a good thing again.

Socialism is the revolution of the previous revolutionary cycle that began in circa 1848 and ended in the nineteen-sixties, replaced by the New Left and the Green movement at the leading edge of change. Given the continued crisis of climate change, I expect Green to be fulfilled, as the revolutionary cycle climaxes early in the next 2T, much as it began early in the previous one. The Uranus-Pluto opposition in 2047 will be the bright full moon in the cycle that began with the Uranus-Pluto conjunction of 1966, the dark new moon of the cycle. And Neptune goes into Taurus, the sign of Earth Day, opposite to its Scorpio position in the sixties. Much will still need to be done to re-green our world, including radical steps toward carbon capture from the air and sea, and radical changes to our corporate society. Green is the goal now of revolutionary movements, and THAT is what will emerge from the next 2T and continue to be instituted in the following years. Green means more small-scale institutions and community organizing, instead of a takeover of the collective, large-scale industrial machine by leaders of the proletariat. In the new post-sixties Green Revolution cycle, the machine itself must be changed instead. But the true Green movement is and will include the best from previous movements too. http://philosopherswheel.com/thethreerevolutions.html

[Eric the Green]

(06-27-2018, 05:17 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(06-27-2018, 02:02 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(06-27-2018, 12:55 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: One possibility is that we have to fight our way through this cold civil war fourth turning for the next 10 years, and then IF the best side wins (not the Republicans, whatever it is), then a time of greater consensus will follow, as promised by the authors of T4T. It won't be as "high" as the American High, because it will be more like the 1T that followed the hot civil war. But usually, 1Ts are more civil, and kind, or at least polite-- at least if you more-or-less go along with the program. Then comes the chance to fulfill the sixties awakening in the next one. You can bet that it will fulfill it too; take that to the bank! The neo-sixties, cosmically guaranteed! There were never more "trusting" people than the flower children. We never reach full paradise in our lifetimes or that of our grandchildren, and flaws and lessons will remain as they did before; but the cycles turn, and more-trusting times will come.

"For the first time in a long while, I look forward 10 years, and I see light" -- Cameron Kasky

Don't assume that the next 2T will have any resemblance to the last one.  We Boomers were the product of nearly hermetically sealed lives: comfortable if not lush and generally positive on things material.  The next Prophets won't have that experience.  With the middle class being hollowed out, the children of the 2020s and 30s will have more focus on equality than awareness out of basic need to prosper.  Socialism is a more likely outcome of the next 4T than any open-society social awareness meme.

Agreed. If the Trump agenda fully congeals, then the next 2T will be a rejection of the repressive, corrupt, hierarchical, mindless, and inequitable order that reflects you-know-who. The psychedelic expressions of the 1960s and 1970s will be completely irrelevant. That Awakening Era could be a rejection of the small minority of Millennial adults who wield power as successors of Trump seemingly right off the old block, the ones whose idea of social justice is that 2% get the sugar and 98% get the shaft. Religious authorities associated with the Establishment view for political reasons instead of moral convictions could be obvious targets for contempt. Cultural ferment could even be antiquarian, of all things.

As with other Awakening eras, I would expect alcohol use to soar much as it did in the Soviet Union as life was both materially and spiritually impoverished... of course alcohol is an excellent solvent for a conscience.

Quite incorrect. Psychedelia will return, and it will be quite relevant, because society today has turned away from spirit and soul. The imbalance will be remedied again, and as Strauss and Howe predicted, Pepperland will recur. No society can survive where there is no vision and no spirituality. I would say instead that nothing will be MORE relevant than more growth in cosnciousness. It's always relevant, but it will be especially so once the 2T comes in the mid 2040s. Repression by wikipedia will be over; the secret will come out again. Materialists need to realize that mass material prosperity has never been necessary for a spiritual and artistic rebirth to happen, ever in history. Previous societies have all been poorer materially and richer spiritually. Basic necessities met for a minority is all that's needed. Our age alone has been obsessed with mass material prosperity, and yet it often fails to achieve it. And it is not a foundation for spiritual awakening. Spirit comes when it will, to almost anyone in any condition.

On the other hand, if Trump does manage to institute his agenda, then you might be right. That means "the people will perish." There's grounds for pessimism indeed on that score. But I see Trump as himself the embodiment of the Crisis. If that's the case, and I think there's abundant grounds for seeing his reign as the clear sign of what's wrong with America, then a 4T would need to correct and solve that crisis which he embodies and personifies. Institutional solutions happen only in 4Ts. By the time of the 1T, it's mostly too late. 1Ts will confirm and consolidate the outward changes made in the 4T. The revving up of society that I see could be quite drastic. The signs are unambiguous in that regard. There is a great deal to overcome if electoral politics is to work for change; that's true. If it doesn't work, then violence will be the result, and America will fail. And without a successful change in THIS 4T, no awakening at all can be predicted to break out here 20 years later. America will be done! The USA will simply decline quickly and go the way of the dodobirds. It cannot survive a Trump agenda, and neither can the world.

On the other hand, if elections can be made to work, and according to your reports there's a good chance that it will, at least sometime during this 4T, then the violent resistance will come from the right. Since violence fails in America, that will be the unmistakable sign that the right has failed, and the reforms will stay in place. Just how far they go depends on the degree to which the younger generations can push forward change, with the help of some older folks who still realize the sixties ideals, and how they are still relevant and unfulfilled. On the other hand, once things are revved up, changes may happen that even the most visionary sixties boomers could not have foreseen. Now, Cameron Kasky has correctly seen exactly where things will go, and the correct dates. His generation will see that it does. "don't worry, we've got this." If you haven't seen the video of his speech, don't miss it!

[beechnut79]

(06-28-2018, 11:10 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(06-27-2018, 05:17 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(06-27-2018, 02:02 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(06-27-2018, 12:55 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: One possibility is that we have to fight our way through this cold civil war fourth turning for the next 10 years, and then IF the best side wins (not the Republicans, whatever it is), then a time of greater consensus will follow, as promised by the authors of T4T. It won't be as "high" as the American High, because it will be more like the 1T that followed the hot civil war. But usually, 1Ts are more civil, and kind, or at least polite-- at least if you more-or-less go along with the program. Then comes the chance to fulfill the sixties awakening in the next one. You can bet that it will fulfill it too; take that to the bank! The neo-sixties, cosmically guaranteed! There were never more "trusting" people than the flower children. We never reach full paradise in our lifetimes or that of our grandchildren, and flaws and lessons will remain as they did before; but the cycles turn, and more-trusting times will come.

"For the first time in a long while, I look forward 10 years, and I see light" -- Cameron Kasky

Don't assume that the next 2T will have any resemblance to the last one.  We Boomers were the product of nearly hermetically sealed lives: comfortable if not lush and generally positive on things material.  The next Prophets won't have that experience.  With the middle class being hollowed out, the children of the 2020s and 30s will have more focus on equality than awareness out of basic need to prosper.  Socialism is a more likely outcome of the next 4T than any open-society social awareness meme.

Agreed. If the Trump agenda fully congeals, then the next 2T will be a rejection of the repressive, corrupt, hierarchical, mindless, and inequitable order that reflects you-know-who. The psychedelic expressions of the 1960s and 1970s will be completely irrelevant. That Awakening Era could be a rejection of the small minority of Millennial adults who wield power as successors of Trump seemingly right off the old block, the ones whose idea of social justice is that 2% get the sugar and 98% get the shaft. Religious authorities associated with the Establishment view for political reasons instead of moral convictions could be obvious targets for contempt. Cultural ferment could even be antiquarian, of all things.

As with other Awakening eras, I would expect alcohol use to soar much as it did in the Soviet Union as life was both materially and spiritually impoverished... of course alcohol is an excellent solvent for a conscience.

Quite incorrect. Psychedelia will return, and it will be quite relevant, because society today has turned away from spirit and soul. The imbalance will be remedied again, and as Strauss and Howe predicted, Pepperland will recur. No society can survive where there is no vision and no spirituality. I would say instead that nothing will be MORE relevant than more growth in cosnciousness. It's always relevant, but it will be especially so once the 2T comes in the mid 2040s. Repression by wikipedia will be over; the secret will come out again. Materialists need to realize that mass material prosperity has never been necessary for a spiritual and artistic rebirth to happen, ever in history. Previous societies have all been poorer materially and richer spiritually. Basic necessities met for a minority is all that's needed. Our age alone has been obsessed with mass material prosperity, and yet it often fails to achieve it. And it is not a foundation for spiritual awakening. Spirit comes when it will, to almost anyone in any condition.

On the other hand, if Trump does manage to institute his agenda, then you might be right. That means "the people will perish." There's grounds for pessimism indeed on that score. But I see Trump as himself the embodiment of the Crisis. If that's the case, and I think there's abundant grounds for seeing his reign as the clear sign of what's wrong with America, then a 4T would need to correct and solve that crisis which he embodies and personifies. Institutional solutions happen only in 4Ts. By the time of the 1T, it's mostly too late. 1Ts will confirm and consolidate the outward changes made in the 4T. The revving up of society that I see could be quite drastic. The signs are unambiguous in that regard. There is a great deal to overcome if electoral politics is to work for change; that's true. If it doesn't work, then violence will be the result, and America will fail. And without a successful change in THIS 4T, no awakening at all can be predicted to break out here 20 years later. America will be done! The USA will simply decline quickly and go the way of the dodobirds. It cannot survive a Trump agenda, and neither can the world.

On the other hand, if elections can be made to work, and according to your reports there's a good chance that it will, at least sometime during this 4T, then the violent resistance will come from the right. Since violence fails in America, that will be the unmistakable sign that the right has failed, and the reforms will stay in place. Just how far they go depends on the degree to which the younger generations can push forward change, with the help of some older folks who still realize the sixties ideals, and how they are still relevant and unfulfilled. On the other hand, once things are revved up, changes may happen that even the most visionary sixties boomers could not have foreseen. Now, Cameron Kasky has correctly seen exactly where things will go, and the correct dates. His generation will see that it does. "don't worry, we've got this." If you haven't seen the video of his speech, don't miss it!

Have always enjoyed reading your astrological perspective on events. And with this in mind I'd like to put in my 2c worth regarding issues which are dear to me. Before going there, I am curious as to what your predictions are for the immediate future, say from now up to around 2030?

I am wondering whether you might see a time ahead when workers have more say in their destiny and also more protections against frivolous firings. A return to the days when most workers only lost their jobs for really serious offenses, whether they have union representation or not? How come today so many workers are shown the door for actions they might have only received counseling for in times past? A book I wrote titled JUDAS TIMES SEVEN exposes what can go down when office politics and political correctness trump reason. The worst example of what I am referring to involved Uber. I drove with them for three months and then abruptly cut off access to the platform for low ratings. When I went to the office to try and find out what the issues were, they remained very tight-lipped. In their minds anything below a five-star rating might as well be zero. I personally was always a tough rater and never gave the highest mark unless they did something way beyond the call of duty. It completely sucks that giving a driver a four-star rating could put his or her livelihood in danger. And then they have the nerve to tell us that you are your own boss. The only way that is true is that you can choose the hours you wish to be on duty. Regarding anything else it's Uber's way or the highway.

There is so much lip service about the environment and going green, and yet nearly a half-century after many of us waited in long lines for gasoline, we are still every bit as auto-centric a culture as we were then, maybe even more so with all the exurban development where only single family large homes are ever built. On the old forum I had a thread on whether we will ever reduce auto dependency. I created it at a time when gasoline prices went pretty high but even at $4+ plus per gallon it didn't seem to be enough to bring about a big drop in consumption. Other factors led to price declines afterwards. We can move toward electric cars but if we don't move away from the culture of one person, one car, the congestion will still be there, and we can't continue to build our way out of congestion forever. One response I got indicated that Millennials, as a potentially civic-minded generation, might consider more public transportation because it is a more civic way of doing things. And yet it was our last civic generation, the GIs, who really put the car culture into overdrive. So far the political will doesn't seem to be there. Getting back to Uber, many thought that the rideshare trend would reduce the number of cars on the road. Yet some are now saying that we may have instead achieved the opposite result as so many are brainwashed into thinking they could make big money getting into rideshare. The food delivery apps are doing the same albeit on a more modified level.

I began a thread here about the homeless issue and am wondering what you see as to when and if we might resolve this issue and how we many accomplish it. The advocated to end homelessness are finding their hands tied due to restrictive zoning ordinances which have the effect of keeping alternative housing, such as rooming houses, out of their communities. Perhaps one of the reasons for this was that some of them became havens for druggies and other lowlife. But you certainly can't paint all of them with the same brush. And this also ties into the auto dependency issue. For suburban areas to be able to have alternatives they would have to be open to more alternative types of denser housing which they have soundly rejected up until now. Do you foresee rooming houses becoming popular again sometime in the future? And some of the big so-called Mcmansions becoming the next generation of flop house? This one after most of us posters are dead and gone?

And you are forecasting somewhat of a return to Pepperland during the next 2T. Will we have to wait until then before a heart-centered, passionate, liberated mind becomes an asset rather than a liability as it now seems to be? A return to the "peace and love" rhetoric of the 1960s?

[David Horn]

(06-28-2018, 10:40 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: ... Socialism is the revolution of the previous revolutionary cycle that began in circa 1848 and ended in the nineteen-sixties, replaced by the New Left and the Green movement at the leading edge of change. Given the continued crisis of climate change, I expect Green to be fulfilled, as the revolutionary cycle climaxes early in the next 2T, much as it began early in the previous one... Green is the goal now of revolutionary movements, and THAT is what will emerge from the next 2T and continue to be instituted in the following years. Green means more small-scale institutions and community organizing, instead of a takeover of the collective, large-scale industrial machine by leaders of the proletariat. In the new post-sixties Green Revolution cycle, the machine itself must be changed instead. But the true Green movement is and will include the best from previous movements too.

The Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) is a rapidly emerging political movement tied to the elective process though candidates that are products of the movement but run as Democrats -- think Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.  It's a beginning that might grow and might not, but it is the next wave … today or 10 years from now.  These young people realize that they are powerless and outmatched when they act alone, so they are natural communitarians.  The real question: is the country ready for them?  I say yes in the Azure Blue urban areas, but this may not be enough to get anything done.

[Hintergrund]

You want trust? In that case, the Boomers should admit that they're spoiled, hypocritical and judgmental and don't deserve fat pensions. "Fourth Turning" predicts that they will retreat to jobs with low pay and high prestige, but I don't see it so far, and I expect now it won't ever happen. Even if "Fourth Turning" is a good book in general.