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Coming European Civil War and World War III
#1
While at a quiet time at work today reading through company policies and procedures I have been thinking about the situation in Western Europe. I am predicting a messy civil war like that in Syria or the former Yugoslavia in the 1990's for whole of Western Europe. It could very well envelop the whole continent.

If there is an economic meltdown which I am predicting, the tensions between the Far-Right and Islamist's in Europe are going to led to spiral of violence, which will end up in a civil war(s). Both sides believe they are in a deadly civilizational struggle.

The Spanish Civil War was the dress rehearsal for World War II. Then the Civil War in Syria will be the dress rehearsal for this conflict. Alt-right fighters will be coming in from Americas and Australasia. Islamist fighters coming from the Middle East, Asia and Africa.

If Britain faces a no-deal Brexit it will be the first place this will occur. If a no-deal Brexit does not occur, then France will be most likely place it will start. In the no-deal Brexit scenario the British police force will be totally overwhelmed by the violence and the military will be forced to intervene. I don't think many in the military are going to obey the commands to shoot at the far-right forces, In fact some of them are going to join them. The violence spiraling further would depend on how the military is going to react.

As the conflict escalates expect people to choose sides, Moderate Muslims will be likely forced to pick the side of the Islamists. Everybody else will be forced to pick the side of the far-right. There is going to be one massive backlash against the Socialists and Liberals who will be seen as helping to support the other side. The LGBTQ+ community along with the Feminist activists could be subject to a backlash as well.

Depending on what happens in North America and Australasia, the alt-right will be cracked down on very hard to prevent such a conflict starting in these countries. The Muslim community I am not sure at this stage, it depends how this conflict is seen by authorities and popular opinion.

In the end the far-right will win the conflict, however the cost is going to be pretty heavy. If a civil war on the scale that of Yugoslavia happened on the European continent, the death toll would be between 3-6 million to 80-170 million displaced. Military intervention by Russia and Turkey will definitely happen as well, which will make that toll even probably even higher.

Plus liberal democracy throughout much of Europe will be extinct throughout most of it, Replaced by authoritarian regimes dependent on the military for support. For how long I don't know. Perhaps a few years before another revolution led by the majority of Millennial's who never supported the far-right or maybe not until the next Awakening.

The more I think about this the more frightening it gets, given that the Middle East has just entered a Fourth Turning. Because Turkey (along with maybe the states of the Maghreb) will military intervene in such a civil war, although such a war(s) would be rather short because the various military along with police forces of the European nations will ally with the far-right against the Islamists. Then various neofascist European states could form themselves into a neo-fascist European superstate or an alliance and then decide to re-conqueror the Middle East for Christendom. While in Turkey Edrogan could declare himself as the Caliph or leader of the faithful in 2023 or 100 years after the abolition of the Ottoman Caliph. Such a war with its theater in the Middle East and North Africa could be truly apocalyptic with nuclear weapons being used.
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#2
Early this year, I've made this map for a debate on Personality Cafe:

[Image: world2.jpg]

Yellow - Liberal Democratic countries led by the US
Blue - Neo-nationalist countries led by China and Russia
Orange - nascent democracies (Ukraine, Iraq) or non-democracies (Saudis) which are on the side of the Yellow bloc geopolitically

I'm not sure about Turkey. I've marked it blue, but it's an oversimplification. In the 1990s Turkey was firmly on the side of the Chechens, who fought for independence against Russia. Even if the early 2010s they were against Assad, who is Russia's ally. Recently I see Turkey and Russia getting closer, but I don't think there is an alliance. Rather, Turkey is trying to be friendly with both blocs, and in case of a confrontation it'll choose the stronger one.

Teejay Wrote:In the no-deal Brexit scenario the British police force will be totally overwhelmed by the violence and the military will be forced to intervene. I don't think many in the military are going to obey the commands to shoot at the far-right forces, In fact some of them are going to join them. The violence spiraling further would depend on how the military is going to react.

If there is any warfare on the British Isles, it'll start in Northern Ireland. There is a serious risk of a new wave of violence in case of a hard border between The Continental far right (fifth column of the Sino-Russian bloc) likes Catholicism, so it will ally with the new IRA. Russia hates Britain already, so they will also support the IRA. The US will support Britain, as it always did.

Since both sides have thermonuclear weapons, this hypothetical war could result in exterminating the human civilization.
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#3
I'd color India yellow because it is clearly hostile to Islamic fundamentalism, and Pakistan blue.

I might have a different color for Trump-like regimes in Poland, Hungary, Brazil (which just elected one), the Philippines, and of course the US.

Costa Rica is definitely yellow, and Bolivia is blue. Egypt is orange, and Algeria is blue.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#4
(11-03-2018, 10:48 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: I'd color India yellow because it is clearly hostile to Islamic fundamentalism, and Pakistan blue.

Is Pakistan an ally of Russia and China?

Islamists hate both the US and Russia/China, so any al-Qaeda style Emirates need yet another colour, to be in sync with my pentagon I'd choose black.

Quote:I might have a different color for Trump-like regimes in Poland, Hungary, Brazil (which just elected one), and of course the US.

Which one? Poland would be orange, as it's firmly against Putin, but Hungary and even the US are showing some uncanny blue tendencies.
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