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Gray Champion Predictions
#81
(06-30-2019, 06:21 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(06-30-2019, 03:50 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: The question may be whether one key political figure defines the Gray Champion. In the examples that I suggested, the political figures dominated the political process in defining the Crisis in their countries. There was no single charismatic figure leading in the American Revolution; political power was more dispersed.

Donald Trump is not the Gray Champion; he is too divisive

Lincoln, FDR, and Churchill were just as divisive.  It's just that after the crisis, the divisiveness is written out of the history books.

Trump is a demon. Demons are not gray champions. Trump is a contributing cause of the crisis; a personification of it. Personifications and causes of the Crisis are not gray champions.

Lincoln, FDR and Churchill divisive during the crisis? Yes, they were. And I don't think that was written out; we know. A crisis is a fight. The good guys have always won. This time, if Trump the bad guy wins, that will break a 540-year streak.

Is our generational constellation inferior to all those who came before? Only in that case will Trump and his minions win the crisis fight. But, maybe we are just too spoiled; too flabby; too ruined by success.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#82
(06-30-2019, 06:21 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(06-30-2019, 03:50 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: The question may be whether one key political figure defines the Gray Champion. In the examples that I suggested, the political figures dominated the political process in defining the Crisis in their countries. There was no single charismatic figure leading in the American Revolution; political power was more dispersed.

Donald Trump is not the Gray Champion; he is too divisive

Lincoln, FDR, and Churchill were just as divisive.  It's just that after the crisis, the divisiveness is written out of the history books.

Warren as usual here PBR is projecting the reality he wishes for not the reality that is.  Conversely Later on we have Bob engaging in Whig History.  It does make me question why this new person grave dug this thread when it seems he had very little to add.  The Democrats in the know, already know, they have a snowball's chance in hell of winning the election--why not let a demented member of the neoliberal faction take the fall then perhaps they can run an AOC or a Younger Bernie or even a Yang when they aren't facing a Trump juggernaut.
It really is all mathematics.

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#83
(05-20-2020, 09:53 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: Warren as usual here PBR is projecting the reality he wishes for not the reality that is.  Conversely Later on we have Bob engaging in Whig History.  It does make me question why this new person grave dug this thread when it seems he had very little to add.  The Democrats in the know, already know, they have a snowball's chance in hell of winning the election--why not let a demented member of the neoliberal faction take the fall then perhaps they can run an AOC or a Younger Bernie or even a Yang when they aren't facing a Trump juggernaut.

It's as much turning theory.  [understatement]  In the heart of a crisis, the conservatives don't do so well.  [/understatement]  This time around, with most favoring life over dollars thus calling for a science based response to COVUS 19, the Trump campaign doesn't look much like a juggernaut.

Besides, I figure there are more Trumps that will be running in 2024.  The way the establishment Republicans were rejected, a few like Palin and Trump have taken over what is left of the Republican Party. The Trump brand will likely take a lump, so another of that ilk may rise.  I don't know.  We will see.

I also don't think we have only one partisan wishful thinking rather than predicting. It is common for someone with a political mindset to see what he wants to see.
About every four score and seven years, a new birth of freedom...
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#84
(05-21-2020, 04:15 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Besides, I figure there are more Trumps that will be running in 2024.  The way the establishment Republicans were rejected, a few like Palin and Trump have taken over what is left of the Republican Party. The Trump brand will likely take a lump, so another of that ilk may rise.  I don't know.  We will see.

One possibility that makes sense to me is Bolton.  This book he wrote could be his "running-for-president" book that most candidates write.  His "conservative" credentials are pretty darn solid, if indeed any real conservatives of the Dick Cheney type and/or Newt Gingrich types still obtain.

Clearly, he has intelligence and he can read. He is a student of history.  His belief system strikes fear into me, but he could be just the sort of "Republican" who could do a lot.  He knows the intricacies of the Bureaucracy forwards and backwards.

His one BIG difference is that he is NOT an isolationist.  And I don't think he would rattle swords; I think he would deploy and use them.

If we use the Model as guidance, and assume that all cards are on the table during this Crisis, and that it could go either way, and if it happened to swing to the right, Bolton could be The Man.
[fon‌t=Arial Black]... a man of notoriously vicious and intemperate disposition.[/font]
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#85
(07-09-2020, 01:57 PM)TnT Wrote:
(05-21-2020, 04:15 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Besides, I figure there are more Trumps that will be running in 2024.  The way the establishment Republicans were rejected, a few like Palin and Trump have taken over what is left of the Republican Party. The Trump brand will likely take a lump, so another of that ilk may rise.  I don't know.  We will see.

One possibility that makes sense to me is Bolton.  This book he wrote could be his "running-for-president" book that most candidates write.  His "conservative" credentials are pretty darn solid, if indeed any real conservatives of the Dick Cheney type and/or Newt Gingrich types still obtain.

Clearly, he has intelligence and he can read. He is a student of history.  His belief system strikes fear into me, but he could be just the sort of "Republican" who could do a lot.  He knows the intricacies of the Bureaucracy forwards and backwards.

His one BIG difference is that he is NOT an isolationist.  And I don't think he would rattle swords; I think he would deploy and use them.

If we use the Model as guidance, and assume that all cards are on the table during this Crisis, and that it could go either way, and if it happened to swing to the right, Bolton could be The Man.

I hope not.  There should be a requirement that anyone associated with the Project for a New American Century is automatically ineligible.  Should  be, but isn't.  Sad Angry
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#86
Anybody who pushes for an active foreign policy-any sort of activist foreign policy-will have to figure out where the support will come from. Difficult at best, if the mood of the country is isolationist.

And I would not assume that the country is eager to get into another war.
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#87
Bernie, Biden and Trump are all grey champions. There could be others

Grey champions are neither good or bad, and don't need to be president obviously, and there are more than one
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#88
(07-09-2020, 01:57 PM)TnT Wrote: If we use the Model as guidance, and assume that all cards are on the table during this Crisis, and that it could go either way, and if it happened to swing to the right, Bolton could be The Man.

Thing is, the crisis has always put in the new values and rendered the old obsolete.  Kings, slaves, isolationism, liaises faire all become obsolete.  That means things can't swing either way.

In the US in normal times given the slavery compromise gives the conservatives the advantage.  They block problem solving, meaning the list of things that must change builds up.  Addressing the crisis problems means change.  How could you claim to have solved the current crisis without solving the coronavirus and reforming violent racist police?  Crisis scale problems tend just not to be solvable by remaining the same.
About every four score and seven years, a new birth of freedom...
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#89
(07-09-2020, 08:18 PM)User3451 Wrote: Bernie, Biden and Trump are all grey champions. There could be others

Grey champions are neither good or bad, and don't need to be president obviously, and there are more than one

But they tend to personify the new values.  They set an example for the new culture.  It is entirely possible to have several people doing that to various degrees, but Buchanan, Hoover and Trump are not examples of demonstrating the new values.  They show why the old values are obsolete and have to change.  A necessary role, perhaps, but it is very different from the grey champion's role.

Hmm.  My spell checker suggested the last role should be grey tampons.  Perhaps...   Wink
About every four score and seven years, a new birth of freedom...
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#90
(07-09-2020, 07:50 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Anybody who pushes for an active foreign policy-any sort of activist foreign policy-will have to figure out where the support will come from.  Difficult at best, if the mood of the country is isolationist.

And I would not assume that the country is eager to get into another war.

Agreed. Bush 43's wars may not have been crisis wars, but the indefinite length of the so called war on terror along with the stress that it put on the military have made us really reluctant to put boots on the ground. For years a unit who had just seen a deployment almost immediately had to get ready for another deployment. The result of the wars was quite arguably worse than what was there before. Neo Colonialism is not a win.

I could see a sea war should China start something with Japan, Taiwan or the East China Sea, but you would have trouble campaigning on starting such a war.
About every four score and seven years, a new birth of freedom...
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#91
Perhaps a certain war weariness will help to keep us out of a full blown Crisis war this time around.
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#92
(07-10-2020, 12:57 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(07-09-2020, 08:18 PM)User3451 Wrote: Bernie, Biden and Trump are all grey champions. There could be others

Grey champions are neither good or bad, and don't need to be president obviously, and there are more than one

But they tend to personify the new values.  They set an example for the new culture.  It is entirely possible to have several people doing that to various degrees, but Buchanan, Hoover and Trump are not examples of demonstrating the new values.  They show why the old values are obsolete and have to change.  A necessary role, perhaps, but it is very different from the grey champion's role.

Hmm.  My spell checker suggested the last role should be grey tampons.  Perhaps...   Wink

By that logic Bernie and Biden are disqualified as well, since Bernie espouses early 20th century socdem values and Biden espouses midcentury conservative Democrat values.
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#93
(07-10-2020, 09:38 AM)User3451 Wrote:
(07-10-2020, 12:57 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(07-09-2020, 08:18 PM)User3451 Wrote: Bernie, Biden and Trump are all grey champions. There could be others

Grey champions are neither good or bad, and don't need to be president obviously, and there are more than one

But they tend to personify the new values.  They set an example for the new culture.  It is entirely possible to have several people doing that to various degrees, but Buchanan, Hoover and Trump are not examples of demonstrating the new values.  They show why the old values are obsolete and have to change.  A necessary role, perhaps, but it is very different from the grey champion's role.

Hmm.  My spell checker suggested the last role should be grey tampons.  Perhaps...   Wink

By that logic Bernie and Biden are disqualified as well, since Bernie espouses early 20th century socdem values and Biden espouses midcentury conservative Democrat values.

Grey Champion is really a title best awarded with 20 20 hindsight, anyway.  This is why Bernie was not chosen, and we are disappointed in advance with Biden.  You don't preen with pride claiming comparison with Lincoln, FDR and Churchill until you have walked the walk.  Either Bernie or Biden would pick up the accolades if they managed to successfully navigate the crisis problems, but until they have done it the title should wait in reserve.
About every four score and seven years, a new birth of freedom...
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#94
If by my definition the grey champion title goes to the one who best personifies the new values and works to make them generally accepted, you would have to go with New York's Governor Cuomo.  It is early days and he is in a lesser position, and he made the mistake of watching China early, not Europe, but if you are listening for the scientific virus answer he has stepped up as much as anyone.

Still waiting on Biden's vice peresidential pick.
About every four score and seven years, a new birth of freedom...
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#95
(07-10-2020, 06:50 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: If by my definition the grey champion title goes to the one who best personifies the new values and works to make them generally accepted, you would have to go with New York's Governor Cuomo.  It is early days and he is in a lesser position, and he made the mistake of watching China early, not Europe, but if you are listening for the scientific virus answer he has stepped up as much as anyone.

Still waiting on Biden's vice peresidential pick.

If he picks Susan Rice, he will pick the only candidate among his chosen field of candidates who can fulfill this role.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#96
(07-10-2020, 06:50 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: If by my definition the grey champion title goes to the one who best personifies the new values and works to make them generally accepted, you would have to go with New York's Governor Cuomo.  It is early days and he is in a lesser position, and he made the mistake of watching China early, not Europe, but if you are listening for the scientific virus answer he has stepped up as much as anyone.

Still waiting on Biden's vice peresidential pick.

It's almost certain he will pick a conservative Democrat
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#97
(07-10-2020, 09:49 PM)User3451 Wrote:
(07-10-2020, 06:50 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: If by my definition the grey champion title goes to the one who best personifies the new values and works to make them generally accepted, you would have to go with New York's Governor Cuomo.  It is early days and he is in a lesser position, and he made the mistake of watching China early, not Europe, but if you are listening for the scientific virus answer he has stepped up as much as anyone.

Still waiting on Biden's vice peresidential pick.

It's almost certain he will pick a conservative Democrat

I suspect that would be a poor choice. Crises bring on very basic transformations. A conservative anything wouldn't be up to it, would make for a vibrant and noisy awakening. We will see how the strong problems of a crisis effect the people involved. Do great men make great decisions to change the culture, or do the times demand great changes to solve problems that must be solved? It is said that in Chinese the character for crisis and opportunity is the same. Will the mediocre man or the crisis time have more effect on each other?

Still to early to call.
About every four score and seven years, a new birth of freedom...
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#98
I think the fact that Biden and Sanders are both Silent disqualifies them from being a GC.
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#99
(07-11-2020, 03:09 AM)GeekyCynic Wrote: I think the fact that Biden and Sanders are both Silent disqualifies them from being a GC.

I vaguely remember that some prior obvious grey champions are technically out of the theory's prescribed official dates. If they solve the crisis problems, I would give them the title anyway.
About every four score and seven years, a new birth of freedom...
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(07-10-2020, 12:57 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(07-09-2020, 08:18 PM)User3451 Wrote: Bernie, Biden and Trump are all grey champions. There could be others

Grey champions are neither good or bad, and don't need to be president obviously, and there are more than one

But they tend to personify the new values.  They set an example for the new culture.  It is entirely possible to have several people doing that to various degrees, but Buchanan, Hoover and Trump are not examples of demonstrating the new values.  They show why the old values are obsolete and have to change.  A necessary role, perhaps, but it is very different from the grey champion's role.

Hmm.  My spell checker suggested the last role should be grey tampons.  Perhaps...   Wink

Your spell checker is wise.  We really need a woman leader right now.  What needs doing is structurally significant, and the Patriarchy is not a change message.  A woman as VP is better than nothing, but we missed our opportunity to select a qualified woman for the head job, when plenty applied.  Where is our Jacinda Adhern?
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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