Poll: When did the 4T start?
2001
2008
other
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When did the current 4T begin?
#1
There are two main possibilities, either 9/11 or the Great Recession. I support the Great Recession camp, though there were 4T like traits in the 2006-8 pop culture like the rise of social media (MySpace). The 2001-5 period was pure 3T and the general theme of this Crisis has nothing to do with al-Qaeda and the war on terror.
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#2
2008 in my country. Dunno about other countries though. But there definitely were huge noticeable differences in 2008 onward in my country of New Zealand.
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#3
2008, with the financial panic and the election of Barack Obama. The combination showed that America was no longer in a 3T mood and could not return to it if it wanted to.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#4
(09-06-2019, 05:35 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: There are two main possibilities, either 9/11 or the Great Recession. I support the Great Recession camp, though there were 4T like traits in the 2006-8 pop culture like the rise of social media (MySpace). The 2001-5 period was pure 3T and the general theme of this Crisis has nothing to do with al-Qaeda and the war on terror.

So class of 05 not class of 08 had the last fully 3T high school experience you think?
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#5
2008 would have been a logical point...

...buuut the powerful Silents prevent that the old time passes on as it should. That's why we've been waiting for more than ten years that "something changes bigly". Maybe they're afraid that something even worse than WW2 might happen.

Will the Crisis return with a vengeance because of this? Or will it be suffocated, and the Unraveling will never really end?
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#6
(09-06-2019, 05:35 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: There are two main possibilities, either 9/11 or the Great Recession. I support the Great Recession camp, though there were 4T like traits in the 2006-8 pop culture like the rise of social media (MySpace). The 2001-5 period was pure 3T and the general theme of this Crisis has nothing to do with al-Qaeda and the war on terror.

In the US, the mood started to shift after Katrina, but the nail in the coffin was the Great Recession.  I've been in the 2005-6 camp in the past, but the impacts never aligned with the trigger, if the storm response was it.  Just look at the poor response to Maria in Puerto Rico.  Disgraceful after the lesson Katrina provided.

So it's either money or war, and it seems to be money this time.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#7
(09-06-2019, 07:32 AM)AspieMillennial Wrote:
(09-06-2019, 05:35 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: There are two main possibilities, either 9/11 or the Great Recession. I support the Great Recession camp, though there were 4T like traits in the 2006-8 pop culture like the rise of social media (MySpace). The 2001-5 period was pure 3T and the general theme of this Crisis has nothing to do with al-Qaeda and the war on terror.

So class of 05 not class of 08 had the last fully 3T high school experience you think?

Yes. Smile  I am class of 05.
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#8
For those who voted "other", which dates do you have in mind?
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#9
The economic elites panicked in 2008 as they saw signs of another Great Depression. Once that was over they went back to 3T ways even if the rest of America didn't -- and it was back to the elite conception that the rest of Humanity can simply suffer for the gain, indulgence, and power of that elite. Much of this Crisis has its 'flavor' in 2% of the people having the power to dominate politics and economics through political trickery. Trump is perfect for the elites in being a mirror-image Marxist while appealing to mass vulgarity -- but that itself implies contradictions that will bring down the last vestiges of 3T tendencies.

The well-educated people already reject the 3T, and their voting practices show that.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#10
(09-10-2019, 03:53 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: For those who voted "other", which dates do you have in mind?

this is not a well thought out position, and I know there are a lot of strong opinions in here, so take this with a grain of salt ... after all this is a message board, not a thesis proposal ... Smile

I didn't vote Other, but I'm seriously considering that the 4th turning doesn't fit the same cycle other turnings do. The depression last time provided a nice demarcation but aside from that, one could consider the crisis of past turnings - the actual conflict periods - to have been 1939-45, 1861-65, 1775-83 ... I haven't done the math but an argument could be made that a typical cycle involves the 3T extending significantly beyond the 20 or so years that S&H defined and shortening the actual length of the crisis part of the 4T.

So in that light ... perhaps, the 4T started with the 2016 election???
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#11
(09-10-2019, 11:30 AM)tg63 Wrote:
(09-10-2019, 03:53 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: For those who voted "other", which dates do you have in mind?

this is not a well thought out position, and I know there are a lot of strong opinions in here, so take this with a grain of salt ... after all this is a message board, not a thesis proposal ... Smile

I didn't vote Other, but I'm seriously considering that the 4th turning doesn't fit the same cycle other turnings do. The depression last time provided a nice demarcation but aside from that, one could consider the crisis of past turnings - the actual conflict periods - to have been 1939-45, 1861-65, 1775-83 ... I haven't done the math but an argument could be made that a typical cycle involves the 3T extending significantly beyond the 20 or so years that S&H defined and shortening the actual length of the crisis part of the 4T.

So in that light ... perhaps, the 4T started with the 2016 election???

Assuming you believe that something dramatic like a war is necessary: a 4T should have a semi-dormant phase, when the stresses build and lesser solutions are tried in vain.  Eventually, the dam breaks and the full crisis response ensues.  That was true prior to the AR, the ACW and the GD/WW-II. I wouldn't count those periods as 3T.  They have no 3T characteristics.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#12
(09-10-2019, 03:53 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: For those who voted "other", which dates do you have in mind?

I think the 4T is on hold, eg hasn't really started yet.

Or, if you prefer: We have its bad sides (recession, other huge unsolved problems), but no people's tribune who starts doing something, fast. So, the 4T's only half there, and we got its worse half.
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