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Thoughts from the Russian Federation
#41
(11-25-2019, 02:15 AM)Kinser79 Wrote:
(11-20-2019, 03:14 AM)Hintergrund Wrote: It makes sense re: the Crises, but I still think it's odd that Stalin, his purges and the Holodomor constitute a High. And even if it's true, how is the first half of Stalin's rule a High, but the second one an Awakening? What happened?

Also, many Russians joke that their history can be concluded in one sentence: "Things got worse." Does their cycle only have two seasons (of different length), Crisis and everything else?

It is a particularly American thought process that first turnings must be "high" and "euphoric".  Probably due to the poor name choice S&H chose and the rose colored glasses many wear about the 1950s.  1Ts need not be idyllic, what they do need to be though is a time where the consensus that arose out of the previous 4T is enforced--brutally if necessary.

A 1T can be quite nasty; consider the post-Civil War South. The solution for the South was something closer to free-wheeling capitalism which was going to solve more problems (people recently freed from tyranny need a free market, even if they have just overthrown an aristocratic or crony-capitalist system) than the agenda of the racist agrarians who eventually prevailed. Freedmen may have been euphoric about getting economic freedom and the right to participate in politics -- but they lost both, and any euphoria was gone. If the war utterly destroys the infrastructure and destroys the intellectual leadership and a large part of the people who own and operate the businesses (I think of Poland), then the 1T at the least begins nasty. Even in western Germany, life could be nasty while much of the activity was either becoming a field hand to make sure that people got fed or picking up the pieces to rebuild the wrecked buildings, roads, sewers power lines, and rails, etc.

Not even Crises must be calamitous, but the mad forced collectivization, the Holodomor, and the Great Patriotic War complete with Nazi atrocities on a huge scale certainly look like Crisis altogether. Can a Crisis Era last nearly thirty years? Maybe, if leadership is mad enough and a war takes on Crisis characteristics. Whether one considers the Great Patriotic War an extension of an earlier Crisis Era or a new one imposed largely from outside is moot in my argument. A Crisis can be imposed upon a country not ready for it. 

Let's put it this way: the certainty of a random person born in Russia in 1913 surviving until 1946 was unusually low by historical standards. War, starvation, executions, persecution -- I can think of few places that I would less rather have been in inhuman history than in Russia from 1913 to at least 1946. China from about 1920 to 1950 was horrible, too.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#42
(01-04-2020, 12:13 PM)Isoko Wrote: That is correct. People were actually content with Putin, half the country even supporting his annexation of the Crimea, until he decided to raise the pension age. That was it, overnight the country hated him. Had he left the pensions alone, he would be alot more popular right now and people content with his leadership.

I'm somewhat surprised that much of the country opposed annexation of Crimea.  What were the arguments against it?

Pensions and retirement are a big problem everywhere.  With people living longer, and population growth slowing or ended, retirement age needs to be pushed back to keep retirement obligations from becoming overwhelming, but it's never going to be popular.  The retirement age in the US is shortly going to be pushed back from 65 to 67, but that was passed into law way back in the 1980s, when the people affected were still in their 20s or before.  And we're going to need an additional increase to 70 or so soon.
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#43
(01-05-2020, 11:24 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(01-04-2020, 12:13 PM)Isoko Wrote: That is correct. People were actually content with Putin, half the country even supporting his annexation of the Crimea, until he decided to raise the pension age. That was it, overnight the country hated him. Had he left the pensions alone, he would be alot more popular right now and people content with his leadership.

I'm somewhat surprised that much of the country opposed annexation of Crimea.  What were the arguments against it?

Pensions and retirement are a big problem everywhere.  With people living longer, and population growth slowing or ended, retirement age needs to be pushed back to keep retirement obligations from becoming overwhelming, but it's never going to be popular.  The retirement age in the US is shortly going to be pushed back from 65 to 67, but that was passed into law way back in the 1980s, when the people affected were still in their 20s or before.  And we're going to need an additional increase to 70 or so soon.

People will approve of degradation of civil liberties and due process so long as someone else gets hurt and the government brings pride through some nationalist achievement. Adolf Hitler did not hold free elections, but he would have won landslides until the casualty lists came back from the Russian Front. Only after the defeat at Stalingrad and some ominous retreats was there any meaningful resistance. The attempt on Hitler's life on 20 July 1944 followed the D-Day invasion but preceded the Romanian coup that switched sides of Germany's most effective ally in Europe, and I can only suspect that the Stauffenberg clique believed that Germany could get better terms while the major allies when those Allies were well outside of Germany itself, especially if the new government could stop the most horrible of deeds (the Holocaust). 

Trump is dead meat politically should the economy falter, or should he attempt to dismantle the welfare state. I wonder how many of his voters in 2016 were on disability or food stamps as I am. (I would rather earn a solid income and not need them, but with Asperger's I am ill-suited to servile jobs in which one must keep up the "happy-to-serve-you smile" or any job involving repeated brute force). I would like to participate in the consumer economy, which in my case means getting richer experiences than I have now. 200 channels of cable TV or a trip to Italy and Greece? You can figure what my choice would be. I want some memories and nice photos for when I end up incarcerated in a nursing home in which I have nothing better to do than to watch televised sports.  

The manufacturing sector is already faltering. Orders for manufactured goods is one of the more powerful of leading indicators.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#44
And for the longest time I have said watch the Exclave of Kaliningrad closely.

I'm beginning to wonder if the Jewish state shouldn't be transferred from the Middle East to the Exclave.

Not only peace in our time - but peace for all time?
"It was better with them that were slain by the sword, than with them that died with hunger, for these pined away being consumed for want of the fruits of the earth" - Lamentations 4:9
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#45
(01-19-2020, 03:59 PM)Anthony Wrote: And for the longest time I have said watch the Exclave of Kaliningrad closely.

I'm beginning to wonder if the Jewish state shouldn't be transferred from the Middle East to the Exclave.

My thoughts exactly Tongue  This is what Stalin should have done in 1945. These East European Jews would feel much more at home in Kaliningrad, with a familiar climate and benign Slavic neighbours. Remember many of them are descendants of Khazar converts who are native to East Europe, not the Middle East.

Isoko Wrote:There is sort of a youth rebellion going on in Russia against Putin but its nothing like the US Awakening with the baby boomers. It's more to do with the youth are, how to say, looking for a new king and they think that just by adopting western democracy (which has stopped working effectively I'd like to add) they can magically make the country rich and life in Russia will just be like Friends on the TV.

You need to go through a consumerist phase before you start "awakening" in the way Americans did in the 1960s/70s.

But I wouldn't say New Age wasn't known in Russia, AFAIK there were plenty of cults there.
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#46
(04-06-2020, 05:29 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote:
(01-19-2020, 03:59 PM)Anthony Wrote: And for the longest time I have said watch the Exclave of Kaliningrad closely.

I'm beginning to wonder if the Jewish state shouldn't be transferred from the Middle East to the Exclave.

My thoughts exactly Tongue  This is what Stalin should have done in 1945. These East European Jews would feel much more at home in Kaliningrad, with a familiar climate and benign Slavic neighbours. Remember many of them are descendants of Khazar converts who are native to East Europe, not the Middle East.

Isoko Wrote:There is sort of a youth rebellion going on in Russia against Putin but its nothing like the US Awakening with the baby boomers. It's more to do with the youth are, how to say, looking for a new king and they think that just by adopting western democracy (which has stopped working effectively I'd like to add) they can magically make the country rich and life in Russia will just be like Friends on the TV.

You need to go through a consumerist phase before you start "awakening" in the way Americans did in the 1960s/70s.

But I wouldn't say New Age wasn't known in Russia, AFAIK there were plenty of cults there.

Israel needs to stay where it is. That's where the Likud wants it to say and so it shall be granted. I'm OK with that as long as the US move more towards a isolationist state. Death, death to Neoliberalism/NeoConservatism!

Kalingrad:  Uh, its the US and NATO that's wrong here. It's time of NATO , that defunct institution looking for a new mission.  Death, death to NATO , hell,  hopefully the "Liberal New Order" will die of Corona. 

I rather like Russia's new paradigm. Autarky uber alles. It's time for the US to come home. Just look at our shitty situation, revealed by Corona. Neoliberal shipping all those factories overseas has blood on its hand.   I mean, the Russian government actually gives a shit about the population, the US institutional order does not!  Fuck NATO, fuck corporate Democrats, fuck  all Republicans, fuck the Fed, fuck Wall Street, fuck the MIC.

Wall Street's job/factory exports is  a big reason Americans shall die bigley.  Remember that when someone you know dies of Corona. Make sure you know in your rage, where to point the finger of blame. If you have elderly reletives like my parents, make sure you know who to despise , know who root for karma's arrival for dispensation.

Anthony, we don't need to watch Kalingrad. That's in Russia's near abroad. Think how the US would think if Russia started sending arms to Cuba again , like 1962.  When one reflects on that, it's easy to see that NATO is a threat for mankind. Stop fucking poking the bear. It's goddamn stupid.
---Value Added Cool
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#47
Yeah I do have to say the Corona situation has been rather quickly controlled in Russia compared to the West. Of course you have some Russians (mainly the Navalny crowd) who believe the government is lying about the numbers but I think if they were, foreign organisations would have picked up on it.

Now as for the Russian youth, I would argue they are actually looking into the past just like the older generation of Russians. For the older, it is obviously the Soviet Union. For the younger, it is America at its height during the 1990s.

The problem with this is that it is too late now for Russia to join the mass consumerism and capitalism game. The youth don't realise it yet and still live in the naive hope that when Putin goes, they will roar to life and be like the West. Well what the West was.

I think that when the West does collapse, it is going to be one huge shock to these Russians. Why emulate what has failed?

I think therefore Russia needs to figure out a new economic plan that can benefit Russia whilst abandoning wild fantasies of the past. That is the biggest challenge for Russia.
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#48
(04-09-2020, 07:53 AM)Isoko Wrote: Now as for the Russian youth, I would argue they are actually looking into the past just like the older generation of Russians. For the older, it is obviously the Soviet Union. For the younger, it is America at its height during the 1990s.

There needs to be some new model of society: environmentally responsible without being anti-technology, communitarian without being collectivist, rational without being scientistic. 1990s nostalgia is counterproductive, if we could bring back the 90s we are in 4T again after 20 years. But I think for the young Russians 1990s America is just the opposite of Putin's tyranny.
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#49
(04-12-2020, 10:15 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote:
(04-09-2020, 07:53 AM)Isoko Wrote: Now as for the Russian youth, I would argue they are actually looking into the past just like the older generation of Russians. For the older, it is obviously the Soviet Union. For the younger, it is America at its height during the 1990s.

There needs to be some new model of society: environmentally responsible without being anti-technology, communitarian without being collectivist, rational without being scientistic. 1990s nostalgia is counterproductive, if we could bring back the 90s we are in 4T again after 20 years. But I think for the young Russians 1990s America is just the opposite of Putin's tyranny.

That's a great goal.  If it's achievable, it may be the next wave in civilization.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#50
Blazkovitz,

The thing is, young Russians are not bothered about Putin. They just want more money. If Putin greatly poured more money into the system and the quality of life dramatically improved to Moscow and St. Petersburg levels throughout the entire country, they would be quite happy to keep Putin. It's basically a money thing that drives on the opposition. Otherwise when it comes to politics or social changes, they are content with the status quo.
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#51
(04-16-2020, 01:57 PM)Isoko Wrote: Blazkovitz,

The thing is, young Russians are not bothered about Putin. They just want more money. If Putin greatly poured more money into the system and the quality of life dramatically improved to Moscow and St. Petersburg levels throughout the entire country, they would be quite happy to keep Putin. It's basically a money thing that drives on the opposition. Otherwise when it comes to politics or social changes, they are content with the status quo.

Half of the country's young population would like to leave the country for good. Putin failed to win their hearts and minds.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodger...vey-finds/
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#52
(04-17-2020, 02:34 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote:
(04-16-2020, 01:57 PM)Isoko Wrote: Blazkovitz,

The thing is, young Russians are not bothered about Putin. They just want more money. If Putin greatly poured more money into the system and the quality of life dramatically improved to Moscow and St. Petersburg levels throughout the entire country, they would be quite happy to keep Putin. It's basically a money thing that drives on the opposition. Otherwise when it comes to politics or social changes, they are content with the status quo.

Half of the country's young population would like to leave the country for good. Putin failed to win their hearts and minds.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodger...vey-finds/

Once again it is about the money and the naive belief in some of them that the West is still like the 1990s. It's not a social political thing, just a money thing. Putin is starting to take this seriously however and is gradually starting to put more money into the system. He just announced a reduced cost for mortgages for example. So the Kremlin is taking notice.

Am I saying things are perfect on Russia? No, not at all. But what I am saying is that the protest voice is merely economic concerns and nothing like the 1960s liberal protestors.
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#53
(04-17-2020, 03:31 AM)Isoko Wrote: Am I saying things are perfect on Russia? No, not at all. But what I am saying is that the protest voice is merely economic concerns and nothing like the 1960s liberal protestors.

Poland's Solidarity also started with money concerns Tongue

Also, rich people are more likely to demand Democracy. Their basic survival needs are satisfied, so they become interested in higher pursuits like political participation.
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#54
Ah but you forget a simple caveat with Poland.

Poland's economy then was in a huge shambles that was causing mass protests and the downfall of the entire government. That energy simply does not exist in Russia as many people do have a decent life. No one really wants to take down the government. 

They don't want to change the economic system. They just want more money pumped into it.

As for rich people wanting Democracy, sure, there are voices in Russia that do want Democracy. That I will not deny. However, amongst the intelligentsia here, there is no desire to replicate the Western democracy as many view it as susceptible to corruption, which is a touche issue amongst Russians.

Like one young guy said to me, the country would be happy with another Putin who put an end to the corruption. That is the thing with Russians, they do like to have what is known as a "strong king". Unlike the West that likes its leaders to be in for a short period, Russians are cool with them remaining in for long periods of power.

To be honest, I think Russia will end up going down the Singapore road of Democracy. That is a one party democratic state whereby they have a strong leader but the people have more say in what is going on. I call it conservative democracy. There will be more democracy in Russia in a few decades. Just not the Western form of of.
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#55
I don't think Russia is currently undergoing a 2T. During a 2T you'd expect weird subcultures, cults and idealistic approach to political and economic reality. Young Russians might be rebelling in a way, but their demands are driven by money, not idealism.

A counterculture was popular in Russia during the 1980s-90s, I guess the youths behind this movement was Prophetic.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countercul...viet_Union

I've read Genome, a novel by Sergey Lukyanenko (born 1968), and the tone is definitely countercultural. Not likely that the author is a Civic. According to Wikipedia, "this is the underlying theme for Lukyanenko: how to preserve your goodness in the world of evil when you are strong and well-armed". Sounds like something a Prophet might come up with.
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#56
(04-23-2020, 03:22 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote: I don't think Russia is currently undergoing a 2T. During a 2T you'd expect weird subcultures, cults and idealistic approach to political and economic reality. Young Russians might be rebelling in a way, but their demands are driven by money, not idealism.

A counterculture was popular in Russia during the 1980s-90s, I guess the youths behind this movement was Prophetic.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countercul...viet_Union

I've read Genome, a novel by Sergey Lukyanenko (born 1968), and the tone is definitely countercultural. Not likely that the author is a Civic. According to Wikipedia, "this is the underlying theme for Lukyanenko: how to preserve your goodness in the world of evil when you are strong and well-armed". Sounds like something a Prophet might come up with.

The thing is in Russia, there is no actual weird subcultures or anything. Everything is imported from the West and they dress in the fashions because they think it is cool. But when it comes to subcultures, they don't really have anything of their own. 

As for the 1980s youth, yeah they did rebel against the Soviet Union. But when the system came down and they experienced life in the hard 90s, they quickly became Putinists. Most of the votes Putin gets is from this generation because of the memories. They don't want another 90s. Also they are patriotic and seem content with Putin's foreign policy.

If Russia is ever going to have a 2T, it is going to be more of a spiritual or religious nature I think. It's America that has social 2T events but Russia not really....

As for generations, I guess you could say that the current youth generation is more of a weird 2T/3T hybrid if it is even possible. The kids in school now behave more like civics and that is a 4T generation on the making.
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#57
(04-23-2020, 10:57 AM)Isoko Wrote: If Russia is ever going to have a 2T, it is going to be more of a spiritual or religious nature I think. It's America that has social 2T events but Russia not really....

I think it might have to do with Protestantism, which emphasises a "personal relationship with Jesus". Orthodoxy is more about community rituals and tradition. My ancestors on my father's side were from the Pinsk area in Belarus, so I know this mindset quite well. I also think even Catholicism does not encourage an Anglo-style awakening. I don't think there were too many hippies in Italy.

Quote:As for generations, I guess you could say that the current youth generation is more of a weird 2T/3T hybrid if it is even possible. The kids in school now behave more like civics and that is a 4T generation on the making.

What about the following:
The old Soviet elites were never destroyed completely, so Putin could rebuild the system rather quickly. The freedom turnings were shorter than they should be according to S&H, and they left the populace scared. My father's childhood friend was killed on the street in Petersburg in the 90s, it happened during the day.
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#58
P. 1 I would say that Orthodoxy is a very likely explanation but also I think it is how Russia itself evolved as a society. When you have a very cold country and are constantly under attack, community values become more important then ever. 

There are many speculations that Russia will create some kind of new high culture in the future that will probably inspire the way based on community living and values. It has been called Sobornost, a philosophy first coined in the 19th century. It emphasises community but also the individual within the community. Sort of like a third way between individualism and collectivism.

P. 2 The thing is Russia is weird. Nobody actually wanted the Soviet Union to collapse in Russia. The only major protests were in the Baltic and Caucasian states, not really Russia itself. I think that the youth of that time would have preferred had Gorbachev actually succeeded along with keeping the best elements of Communism. 

Even today you can talk to that generation and they all miss something from the USSR. It's a weird thing.
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#59
(04-23-2020, 03:22 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote: I don't think Russia is currently undergoing a 2T. During a 2T you'd expect weird subcultures, cults and idealistic approach to political and economic reality. Young Russians might be rebelling in a way, but their demands are driven by money, not idealism.

If Russia is out of phase with the West, it should be by about 90 degrees, not 180 degrees.  One Crisis period would have ended with the Bolshevik victory in the Russian Civil War in 1922.  The next Crisis period would have encompassed the 1980s and 1990s, and ended with Putin taking power.  In this case, Russia is just now transitioning from a High to an Awakening.  You'd really have to look at the younger teens to be sure you were looking at the next generation of Idealists, and they might not have reached a rebellious age yet.

I actually think the Putin/Medvedev decades look a lot like a High.
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#60
Warren,

I honestly am a sceptic if Russia will have an awakening in the true sense of the word. I think that due to the nature of the society at large, Russia's Awakening won't be anything earth shattering. If I am honest, I think there will be reforms to the system by the youth but as is the nature of Russia, it always takes a Putin to run the system and I do feel that another Putin is in the Pipeworks. Compared to American Awakenings, Russia's one I think will be very boring in comparison.
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