How this Crisis will be resolved (for the U.S.)

[Mickey123]

Reading through these forums, it seems a number of people here believe that this will somehow turn out to be a mild crisis where not much happens.  But if the Fourth Turning theories are correct, this cannot be the case.  As fractured and fragmented as the U.S. is culturally, nothing less than a major crisis could put it back together again.  This leaves a few likely possibilities for the Crisis, which I'll discuss briefly here.

First, it could resolve itself in an enormous war.  The only powers in the world which could realistically take on the U.S., and which there's any reasonable chance of the U.S. fighting, would be China and Russia.  As Crises are an opportunity to resolve issues, it may be that the U.S., and some of its allies, go to war against both China and Russia, under the idea that all nations must be democratic.  This could result in a vastly strengthened United Nations which has real power, an actual global government.

Failing that, the U.S. is left with a civil or revolutionary war.

One possibility is portions of the U.S. attempting to break off and form their own country.  While this is certainly possible, I don't see this as being the core of the crisis or the resolution of it, as that's not where the fault lines are in the country today.  The political divide in the U.S. of left versus right wing is not geographic; rural areas are conservative while cities are liberal.  There's no way to string together all the cities to make a separate nation, nor can the south reasonably rise again when the 30% of its people who are black will have no interest in forming a separate new confederacy.

This leaves us with a revolutionary war of one sort or another.

From the right, you could have a military coup, as some president, with the help of the military, suspends the congress and simply takes over.  From the left, you have the possibility of a socialist revolution.  In either case, they couldn't happen until the climate allowing them was in place.  A socialist revolution can't happen in a wealthy prosperous society, people have to be poor and hungry before they're ready to overthrow the system in such a way.  Similarly, things would have to be really bad before the military would be willing to set aside the constitution and put a dictator in place.

There is, of course, the possibility that parts of all of this happen.  The U.S. goes to war against Russia or China, both sides pledge not to use nuclear weapons unless necessary, the west coast of the U.S. tries to break off and form its own country, Texas announces it's going its own way as well, all hell is breaking loose and the economy has gone to hell, and now some attempt at a government takeover, left or right, takes place.

It's difficult to say which would end up worse.  An all out nuclear war would of course be the worst possible option.  Every socialist revolution has ended in utter disaster.  A right wing government takeover could result in massive amounts of ethnic cleansing, if the U.S. decided to send all members of various races or religions back to their countries of origin.

One way or another, I think this is going to be far, far worse than many of you here are imagining.

[Warren Dew]

(12-30-2019, 06:35 PM)Mickey123 Wrote: First, it could resolve itself in an enormous war.  The only powers in the world which could realistically take on the U.S., and which there's any reasonable chance of the U.S. fighting, would be China and Russia.  As Crises are an opportunity to resolve issues, it may be that the U.S., and some of its allies, go to war against both China and Russia, under the idea that all nations must be democratic.  This could result in a vastly strengthened United Nations which has real power, an actual global government....

One way or another, I think this is going to be far, far worse than many of you here are imagining.

What, did Xenakis not post his prediction of all out nuclear war today?

I would note that neither Japan nor Germany could realistically take on the US in World War 2, either, but yet they started the war.  I could see Erdogan starting a war in the middle east or the eastern Med, for example, and then that blowing up.  If the EU had a couple years to build up a nuclear stockpile, they could challenge the US - or Russia.

[pbrower2a]

(12-30-2019, 06:35 PM)Mickey123 Wrote: Reading through these forums, it seems a number of people here believe that this will somehow turn out to be a mild crisis where not much happens.  But if the Fourth Turning theories are correct, this cannot be the case.  As fractured and fragmented as the U.S. is culturally, nothing less than a major crisis could put it back together again.  This leaves a few likely possibilities for the Crisis, which I'll discuss briefly here.

I could name some countries that went through the Crisis of 1940 without any semblance of apocalypse: Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland, and Turkey did not participate in war  (OK, Turkey was marginally involved).  Then there are several Central and South American republics  that formally declared war on the Devil's Reich and Thug Japan, but sent only token forces.

World War II was so widespread as it was because it was in part a war between colonial powers that had spread their dominions far away from their metropoles. Except for the horrible Sino-Japanese war the war in the Pacific was fought entirely over colonial empires until the very end, when the United States  started closing in on the Home Islands. A critical, but decisive theater of the war with Nazi Germany was in the French and italian colonial empire and in barely-independent Egypt see also 'minor wars' over Syria (a protectorate of Vichy France) and the British overthrow of the fascistic Golden Square regime that had the crazy idea that it could get more independence for Iraq by aligning itself with Hitlerland. 

Crisis eras can end in whimpers, as did the establishment of Constitutional government in the United States as a strong federation replacing a weak confederation. The best that anyone can hope for for America in the Crisis of 2020 is reforms that close the seams of our system so that ruthless, unprincipled people such as Karl Rove can no longer gut American democracy. We can also render impotent the feudal mentality of some of our elites.

We still have enough time for less benign results. Those at first seem to better fit some sensibilities especially in requiring fewer sacrifices. See below:
  

Quote:First, it could resolve itself in an enormous war.  The only powers in the world which could realistically take on the U.S., and which there's any reasonable chance of the U.S. fighting, would be China and Russia.  As Crises are an opportunity to resolve issues, it may be that the U.S., and some of its allies, go to war against both China and Russia, under the idea that all nations must be democratic.  This could result in a vastly strengthened United Nations which has real power, an actual global government.

What would be the motivation of a war with Russia? A revival of Manifest Destiny in which America sees eastern Siberia as a frontier to settle as it did the West? The Civil War seems to have put an end to that. Much of the drive to expand the United States before the Civil War came from slave-owning interests who sought to annex more land in which to establish the slave system. 

China seems intent on expanding its naval power to defend its "interests overseas" (as in America parlance, investments overseas). Its only potential territorial demands are on lands that have been Chinese, like Taiwan. Obviously it would be a catastrophic mistake of any country to mistreat overseas Chinese, and such would be a pretext for some wars that few countries could win. Leaders of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Australia know this well. 

If the United States cannot defend its democratic institutions here -- with those eroding by the design of some of The most RUthless, Most cynical People in America. Cheap stuff imported from China depresses wages in America and eviscerates industrial unions in a manufacturing sector that used to offer middle-class incomes. America is not going to get its manufacturing base back until Americans  accept sweat-shop conditions with real pay lower than the norm in the 1920's.  

Quote:Failing that, the U.S. is left with a civil or revolutionary war.

I long thought that  America was prone to an ideological polarization with a close connection to cultural identity as was the case in Spain in the 1930's, such manifesting itself in a split between secular modernists and people with medieval attitudes except for modernity in technology. The winner in such a war, should it suppress the other side as Franco did with the secular modernists, can solve its contradictions with brutality and terror. 

Quote:One possibility is portions of the U.S. attempting to break off and form their own country.  While this is certainly possible, I don't see this as being the core of the crisis or the resolution of it, as that's not where the fault lines are in the country today.  The political divide in the U.S. of left versus right wing is not geographic; rural areas are conservative while cities are liberal.  There's no way to string together all the cities to make a separate nation, nor can the south reasonably rise again when the 30% of its people who are black will have no interest in forming a separate new confederacy.

Such is most likely if one side tries to suppress the other, making a mockery of the federal system. Secession is a desperate measure, one possible if one side faces the prospect of its way of life vanishing by force. A usurpation of power by a would-be dictator would make such practically automatic as a counter-coup.  

Quote:This leaves us with a revolutionary war of one sort or another.

From the right, you could have a military coup, as some president, with the help of the military, suspends the congress and simply takes over.  From the left, you have the possibility of a socialist revolution.  In either case, they couldn't happen until the climate allowing them was in place.  A socialist revolution can't happen in a wealthy prosperous society, people have to be poor and hungry before they're ready to overthrow the system in such a way.  Similarly, things would have to be really bad before the military would be willing to set aside the constitution and put a dictator in place.

The military would not stand for that. A coup would be more likely against a President going full-bore dictatorial. America has never had anything like fascistic rule except in the Jim Crow South, and the formality of such will not return even in the South. Such would take massacres -- and the Armed Forces will not participate in those on behalf of a dictatorial regime. 

On the other hand, nobody says that a society in which 2% get nearly everything, 3% (professionals including law enforcement, senior military officers, and such professionals as physicians and engineers who would do well anywhere do sort-of-OK, and the rest live in hunger and cold because the elites enforce extreme poverty can make the overall prosperity is irrelevant in determining whether a proletarian revolution is possible. 

Quote:There is, of course, the possibility that parts of all of this happen.  The U.S. goes to war against Russia or China, both sides pledge not to use nuclear weapons unless necessary, the west coast of the U.S. tries to break off and form its own country, Texas announces it's going its own way as well, all hell is breaking loose and the economy has gone to hell, and now some attempt at a government takeover, left or right, takes place.

The opportunity for such vanishes a little every month as the Crisis ages. 

Quote:It's difficult to say which would end up worse.  An all out nuclear war would of course be the worst possible option.  Every socialist revolution has ended in utter disaster.  A right wing government takeover could result in massive amounts of ethnic cleansing, if the U.S. decided to send all members of various races or religions back to their countries of origin.

One way or another, I think this is going to be far, far worse than many of you here are imagining.

Every prior Crisis in American history has ended in an overall consensus that certain old ways that failed are no longer possible. I tend to believe that the increasing concentration of power, wealth, and income in an  ever-narrowing elite will prove unsustainable. people are becoming more sophisticated about propaganda as older cohorts die off and younger adults who have no stake in such nastiness  replace them in the electorate.

[Eric the Green]

(12-30-2019, 06:35 PM)Mickey123 Wrote: Reading through these forums, it seems a number of people here believe that this will somehow turn out to be a mild crisis where not much happens.  But if the Fourth Turning theories are correct, this cannot be the case.  As fractured and fragmented as the U.S. is culturally, nothing less than a major crisis could put it back together again.  This leaves a few likely possibilities for the Crisis, which I'll discuss briefly here.

First, it could resolve itself in an enormous war.  The only powers in the world which could realistically take on the U.S., and which there's any reasonable chance of the U.S. fighting, would be China and Russia.  As Crises are an opportunity to resolve issues, it may be that the U.S., and some of its allies, go to war against both China and Russia, under the idea that all nations must be democratic.  This could result in a vastly strengthened United Nations which has real power, an actual global government.

Failing that, the U.S. is left with a civil or revolutionary war.

One possibility is portions of the U.S. attempting to break off and form their own country.  While this is certainly possible, I don't see this as being the core of the crisis or the resolution of it, as that's not where the fault lines are in the country today.  The political divide in the U.S. of left versus right wing is not geographic; rural areas are conservative while cities are liberal.  There's no way to string together all the cities to make a separate nation, nor can the south reasonably rise again when the 30% of its people who are black will have no interest in forming a separate new confederacy.

This leaves us with a revolutionary war of one sort or another.

From the right, you could have a military coup, as some president, with the help of the military, suspends the congress and simply takes over.  From the left, you have the possibility of a socialist revolution.  In either case, they couldn't happen until the climate allowing them was in place.  A socialist revolution can't happen in a wealthy prosperous society, people have to be poor and hungry before they're ready to overthrow the system in such a way.  Similarly, things would have to be really bad before the military would be willing to set aside the constitution and put a dictator in place.

There is, of course, the possibility that parts of all of this happen.  The U.S. goes to war against Russia or China, both sides pledge not to use nuclear weapons unless necessary, the west coast of the U.S. tries to break off and form its own country, Texas announces it's going its own way as well, all hell is breaking loose and the economy has gone to hell, and now some attempt at a government takeover, left or right, takes place.

It's difficult to say which would end up worse.  An all out nuclear war would of course be the worst possible option.  Every socialist revolution has ended in utter disaster.  A right wing government takeover could result in massive amounts of ethnic cleansing, if the U.S. decided to send all members of various races or religions back to their countries of origin.

One way or another, I think this is going to be far, far worse than many of you here are imagining.

I think you are basically right. Some people on these forums think either that the 4T never started or that it's already over. It was mild, or consisted of 9-11 and the war on terror, or other such ideas. I am sure that even though the 4T is half over, it has not really fully begun. My reading of the cycles says that it's much like the civil war crisis, which really extended back through the 1850s in an era much like ours has been in the 2010s, but the equivalent of the 1860s is still ahead, and may even arrive only in the mid-2020s.

The civil war is the nearest model of what will happen, but all the other 4Ts may also be models.

I think a total war against China and Russia is unlikely, because I don't think the powers that be in these 3 countries want this badly enough. Friction will continue, but more likely seems to be that the troubles in the Middle East and the war on terror will continue and heat up again, leading to another intervention in 2025 or so. Iran seems to be a flash point again and this could get worse, but that may depend on whether Trump is ousted and the nuclear deal is accepted again by all sides. Meanwhile the whole Kurdish issue is a potential time bomb.

Although civil war and revolution are likely, I have expressed here and in my book what I think is most likely to happen. The 2020s fit into a pattern of progressive decades, and certainly the USA is overdue. Left sentiment is rising, and the Right is going off the rails into insanity. I think demographics indicate declining appeal for neo-liberal trickle-down racism and immigrant bashing; this is the last ditch effort to resist change that is happening. So at some point the liberal side will gain power and neo-liberalism (trickle-down libertarian economics) will lose its place as the default ideology in our government. Social programs and higher taxes will return. This will be more likely if Sanders is elected in 2020, but failing that some Democrat will certainly being it about after 2024. The Right will call it "socialism," although the "progress" and restoration of liberalism won't really go that far. The "revolution" therefore will be a civil rebellion from the right-wing against taxes, environmental regulations, gun control, immigration, and tolerance of diversity. It will be crushed by the liberal government in a couple of years or so, but not without some bloodshed and possible secessions during the process. 

Although the north-american divide is between urban and rural, secession and the division of the country is still possible, because some states are mostly urban and others are mostly rural, and blacks still lack power in the south to resist this. So division of the country between blue and red could still happen, although it's unlikely, and could lead to further division within the states as well. A liberal government is more likely to allow secession to happen without violence than a right-wing one. 

A takeover by the Right instead of the Left in the 2020s is possible, and they have erected many barriers to progress already that will be tough to break through. Elections will depend on the quality of the candidates who run on each side too, so although the outlook is for a progressive decade ahead, exactly to what extent, and how this will unfold, will depend on who runs for office and on other unpredictables. Other parties could rise to power too as the duopoly falls apart. A flood of reforms will be proposed from all sides.

[Tim Randal Walker]

The USA will be very fortunate if this 4T turns out to be relatively mild.

[Marypoza]

(12-31-2019, 03:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(12-30-2019, 06:35 PM)Mickey123 Wrote: Reading through these forums, it seems a number of people here believe that this will somehow turn out to be a mild crisis where not much happens.  But if the Fourth Turning theories are correct, this cannot be the case.  As fractured and fragmented as the U.S. is culturally, nothing less than a major crisis could put it back together again.  This leaves a few likely possibilities for the Crisis, which I'll discuss briefly here.

First, it could resolve itself in an enormous war.  The only powers in the world which could realistically take on the U.S., and which there's any reasonable chance of the U.S. fighting, would be China and Russia.  As Crises are an opportunity to resolve issues, it may be that the U.S., and some of its allies, go to war against both China and Russia, under the idea that all nations must be democratic.  This could result in a vastly strengthened United Nations which has real power, an actual global government.

Failing that, the U.S. is left with a civil or revolutionary war.

One possibility is portions of the U.S. attempting to break off and form their own country.  While this is certainly possible, I don't see this as being the core of the crisis or the resolution of it, as that's not where the fault lines are in the country today.  The political divide in the U.S. of left versus right wing is not geographic; rural areas are conservative while cities are liberal.  There's no way to string together all the cities to make a separate nation, nor can the south reasonably rise again when the 30% of its people who are black will have no interest in forming a separate new confederacy.

This leaves us with a revolutionary war of one sort or another.

From the right, you could have a military coup, as some president, with the help of the military, suspends the congress and simply takes over.  From the left, you have the possibility of a socialist revolution.  In either case, they couldn't happen until the climate allowing them was in place.  A socialist revolution can't happen in a wealthy prosperous society, people have to be poor and hungry before they're ready to overthrow the system in such a way.  Similarly, things would have to be really bad before the military would be willing to set aside the constitution and put a dictator in place.

There is, of course, the possibility that parts of all of this happen.  The U.S. goes to war against Russia or China, both sides pledge not to use nuclear weapons unless necessary, the west coast of the U.S. tries to break off and form its own country, Texas announces it's going its own way as well, all hell is breaking loose and the economy has gone to hell, and now some attempt at a government takeover, left or right, takes place.

It's difficult to say which would end up worse.  An all out nuclear war would of course be the worst possible option.  Every socialist revolution has ended in utter disaster.  A right wing government takeover could result in massive amounts of ethnic cleansing, if the U.S. decided to send all members of various races or religions back to their countries of origin.

One way or another, I think this is going to be far, far worse than many of you here are imagining.

I think you are basically right. Some people on these forums think either that the 4T never started or that it's already over. It was mild, or consisted of 9-11 and the war on terror, or other such ideas. I am sure that even though the 4T is half over, it has not really fully begun. My reading of the cycles says that it's much like the civil war crisis, which really extended back through the 1850s in an era much like ours has been in the 2010s, but the equivalent of the 1860s is still ahead, and may even arrive only in the mid-2020s.

The civil war is the nearest model of what will happen, but all the other 4Ts may also be models.

I think a total war against China and Russia is unlikely, because I don't think the powers that be in these 3 countries want this badly enough. Friction will continue, but more likely seems to be that the troubles in the Middle East and the war on terror will continue and heat up again, leading to another intervention in 2025 or so. Iran seems to be a flash point again and this could get worse, but that may depend on whether Trump is ousted and the nuclear deal is accepted again by all sides. Meanwhile the whole Kurdish issue is a potential time bomb.

Although civil war and revolution are likely, I have expressed here and in my book what I think is most likely to happen. The 2020s fit into a pattern of progressive decades, and certainly the USA is overdue. Left sentiment is rising, and the Right is going off the rails into insanity. I think demographics indicate declining appeal for neo-liberal trickle-down racism and immigrant bashing; this is the last ditch effort to resist change that is happening. So at some point the liberal side will gain power and neo-liberalism (trickle-down libertarian economics) will lose its place as the default ideology in our government. Social programs and higher taxes will return. This will be more likely if Sanders is elected in 2020, but failing that some Democrat will certainly being it about after 2024. The Right will call it "socialism," although the "progress" and restoration of liberalism won't really go that far. The "revolution" therefore will be a civil rebellion from the right-wing against taxes, environmental regulations, gun control, immigration, and tolerance of diversity. It will be crushed by the liberal government in a couple of years or so, but not without some bloodshed and possible secessions during the process. 

Although the north-american divide is between urban and rural, secession and the division of the country is still possible, because some states are mostly urban and others are mostly rural, and blacks still lack power in the south to resist this. So division of the country between blue and red could still happen, although it's unlikely, and could lead to further division within the states as well. A liberal government is more likely to allow secession to happen without violence than a right-wing one. 

A takeover by the Right instead of the Left in the 2020s is possible, and they have erected many barriers to progress already that will be tough to break through. Elections will depend on the quality of the candidates who run on each side too, so although the outlook is for a progressive decade ahead, exactly to what extent, and how this will unfold, will depend on who runs for office and on other unpredictables. Other parties could rise to power too as the duopoly falls apart. A flood of reforms will be proposed from all sides.

-- don't 4get Eric: Pluto= radical change, transformation Capricorn rules Govt. yeah a revolution is coming alright

[David Horn]

(12-30-2019, 11:00 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: ...  If the EU had a couple years to build up a nuclear stockpile, they could challenge the US - or Russia.

Skipping the argument about nuclear war, I'll just note that building a nuclear stockpile takes more time than "a few years". Let's assume that the choice is thermonuclear rather than simpler fission bombs. Making the fusion products is time consuming, and nearly impossible to hide. You either need heavy water reactors or more advance gas reactors to turn lithium into tritium. Neither can be built quickly. After that, the production process is slow and the resulting products need to be centrifuged into weapons grade form.

Getting the EU to that point would be at least a decade … assuming they have full access to the French and/or British production reactors.

[pbrower2a]

(01-21-2020, 06:46 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: The USA will be very fortunate if this 4T turns out to be relatively mild.

The severity of the last 4T for America was the choice of Tojo and Hitler.

This Crisis can end gently, if decisively if it culminates in reforms that make life better for most Americans.

[David Horn]

(01-21-2020, 06:46 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: The USA will be very fortunate if this 4T turns out to be relatively mild.

This looks like an internal crisis, similar to the ACW.  That it's less severe is only true if it stays that way.  There is no huge issue like slavery to break things into pieces, but the universal disinformation campaigns, both domestic and international, have sown anarchy into the American mindset.  What that means is hard to know until it creates havoc … or doesn't.  I think we can agree that effectiveness will be degraded, regardless.  It's hard to get a herd of cats to cooperate on anything.