The Coronavirus

[David Horn]

(03-26-2020, 08:22 PM)Ghost Wrote:

(03-26-2020, 07:53 PM)Camz Wrote: Monday of last week was when we school first closed for me. I've only been outside to go to parks and playgrounds since then, but now I can't do the latter anymore, so I've just been walking around the neighborhood a few times a week. We haven't gotten any school assignments since our break started yet, unlike a lot of my online friends, but my math teacher recently announced she'll give us some soon, so that sucks I guess.
Also, my birthday is on Saturday, and I was really looking forward to going to my favorite restaurant with friends ;-;
Although, as a creative introvert, this quarantine stuff isn't that bad. I've gotten back into different video games, talking to online friends, reading, and I've even been working toward putting myself out there online through streaming!

I definitely plan on telling my kids how strange my first year of high school is/was.

I've been at home for 2 weeks already.

I hadn't given this much though, but yes: just the isolation alone has to make a lifelong imprint on people in your age groups.  This is precisely when you should be developing the social skills needed in adulthood. All I can say is, try to be the virtual social butterfly, since being one IRL is out for now.

[David Horn]

(03-26-2020, 11:36 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Tonight’s Rachel Maddow show on MSNBC focused a lot of attention on a lack of leadership coming from the federal government leaving the 50 states and various government agencies competing for critical resources.  Rachel put a lot of emphasis on this lack of finding out where there was the greatest need, and making sure there was a response there.  The Massachusetts governor was among those that complained that time and man hours were being wasted trying to get resources which ended up going to the highest bidder.  Valid contracts which the states thought answered their needs vanished when the source found a higher bidder.

That reminded me of something Trump said a few days back.  Coordinating the response would inconvenience those who were making the resources available.  In other words, Trump could stop the price gouging, but the elites making a profit off of death asked him not to.

Rachel and MSNBC were not attributing a profit motive, only a lack of needed leadership, but if I am begining to wonder, perhaps so should others.

When, if ever, will the media call this obvious spade a shovel?  All the pussy-footing around and being "balanced" and "fair" has created a chasm of doubt Trump fills with lies every day.  This has to stop!

Trump loyalists are unreachable -- witness Warren Dew on this forum as an example.  They need to reach as many of the rest as humanly possible.  Fox and rest of the Trumpist media aren't bound by that now archaic code, and it's long past time for others to act accordingly.

[tg63]

(03-27-2020, 09:32 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(03-26-2020, 11:36 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Tonight’s Rachel Maddow show on MSNBC focused a lot of attention on a lack of leadership coming from the federal government leaving the 50 states and various government agencies competing for critical resources.  Rachel put a lot of emphasis on this lack of finding out where there was the greatest need, and making sure there was a response there.  The Massachusetts governor was among those that complained that time and man hours were being wasted trying to get resources which ended up going to the highest bidder.  Valid contracts which the states thought answered their needs vanished when the source found a higher bidder.

That reminded me of something Trump said a few days back.  Coordinating the response would inconvenience those who were making the resources available.  In other words, Trump could stop the price gouging, but the elites making a profit off of death asked him not to.

Rachel and MSNBC were not attributing a profit motive, only a lack of needed leadership, but if I am begining to wonder, perhaps so should others.

When, if ever, will the media call this obvious spade a shovel?  All the pussy-footing around and being "balanced" and "fair" has created a chasm of doubt Trump fills with lies every day.  This has to stop!

Trump loyalists are unreachable -- witness Warren Dew on this forum as an example.  They need to reach as many of the rest as humanly possible.  Fox and rest of the Trumpist media aren't bound by that now archaic code, and it's long past time for others to act accordingly.

isn't the 4T perspective that it's not that one side wins the other side over, it's just that most people stop listening to one side ... it seems that's what's happening right now ... seriously, who cares what they think at this point ...

[Warren Dew]

(03-27-2020, 09:32 AM)David Horn Wrote: Trump loyalists are unreachable -- witness Warren Dew on this forum as an example.

I recommend Matthew 7:3.

[Bob Butler 54]

(03-27-2020, 05:08 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(03-27-2020, 09:32 AM)David Horn Wrote: Trump loyalists are unreachable -- witness Warren Dew on this forum as an example.

I recommend Matthew 7:3.

It may be that a lot of people are unreachable.  Note, the few issues where I am on the red side.  I can’t change the opinions of many blues either.  Prohibition will work this time.  Right…

But look at how the conservatives have sided in previous crises.  They hung firm on kings, slavery and fascism.  I know that 20 / 20 hindsight is wonderful, and the history books are written by the victors, but I see the arrow of progress as being real.  Those that try to hang on to power selfishly clinging to tribal thought are not remembered well.  Equality is real, a virtue many hold as important.  On issues like global warming, the economy, and the Coronavirus, respecting reality and science is a good thing.

But I have long thought this and similar 4T sites attract extremists.  They are the people ready to listen and contribute when they find a theory that major changes in culture can occur, in fact do occur at regular intervals.

At best, you can swing a few people who keep an open mind.

[Bob Butler 54]

I use the internet to pick up the normal news. Lately I have tuned into MSNBC for an hour or so to pick up on the impeachment and then the Coronavirus. Some nights I pick up something significant the rubs me wrong, and I repeat it here. Often, it is not the speaking point of the night, and the MSNBC people mention it but don’t press it as hard as they could.

Tonight, the dynamic that raised the hairs on the back of my neck was that Trump was punishing states and leaders that disagreed with him.

Some of the places hit first and hardest by the Coronavirus are port cities: Seattle, New York, Los Angeles. Dense populations on the coasts. Cities in blue states. Mayors and governors who tend to be Democratic. They are telling Trump they need help now which he is not pleased to hear. It conflicts with his own Happy Talk perspective. His response to listening to people who take an opposite point of view? Stop listening. Punish the guy with the opposite point of view.

In this case he is talking to the medical suppliers. ‘I don’t like this person. Don’t deal with him.’

Which amounts to murdering political opponents.

That was what made my hair stand on end.

Now with the Coronavirus problem, it is not a question of traditional red and blue. It is a question of how close your hospitals are to overload. Places like Louisiana and Florida are not traditionally blue, but New Orleans has Mardi Gras people who scorned the isolation attempts in part because their people listened to Trump. Florida will be in a similar similar place in a few weeks as students on their spring break treated it as if it were a spring break.

It is not a case of a politician being in a red state and knowing who butters their bread. It is (or will be) that people are dying. Red states will flip from the Happy Talk perspective to Take Action real quick. Things move from the red Republican refusal to see any problem which requires big government, to the blue Democratic call that something must be done. It forces transition from an Unraveling selfish perspective, to a Crisis collective perspective.

This is in part why I see the Coronavirus as the Trigger. It will force action when one or the factions resists action.

But if Trump stays his usual self he will steer needed medical supplies away from where they are needed most. Those who need those supplies are most likely to be blunt in presenting the Take Action position. If you don’t speak Happy Talk, supplies will be steered away.

[Bob Butler 54]

One thing mentioned in passing on tonight’s news report was that CPAP machines could act as a poor man’s ventilator. They can help some if you are having trouble breathing. That is one of my own medical problems, sleep apnea, and I have a CPAP machine that I need to do what it was originally designed for.

So far there has not been a call to collect CPAP machines…

[Eric the Green]

(03-27-2020, 06:09 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(03-27-2020, 05:08 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(03-27-2020, 09:32 AM)David Horn Wrote: Trump loyalists are unreachable -- witness Warren Dew on this forum as an example.

I recommend Matthew 7:3.

It may be that a lot of people are unreachable.  Note, the few issues where I am on the red side.  I can’t change the opinions of many blues either.  Prohibition will work this time.  Right…

Nor can we change the red opinions that you hold....

Yup, lots of people are unreachable..... some men you just can't reach. What we've got here is, failure to communicate.

[pbrower2a]

As credible as anything so far.



Publication date: 
March 26, 2020
 
View the COVID-19 US projections data visualization
 
IMPORTANCE

This study presents the first set of estimates of predicted health service utilization and deaths due to COVID-19 by day for the next 4 months for each state in the US.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the extent and timing of deaths and excess demand for hospital services due to COVID-19 in the US.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This study used data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths by day from WHO websites and local and national governments; data on hospital capacity and utilization for US states; and observed COVID-19 utilization data from select locations to develop a statistical model forecasting deaths and hospital utilization against capacity by state for the US over the next 4 months.
EXPOSURE(S)
COVID-19.
MAIN OUTCOME(S) AND MEASURE(S)
Deaths, bed and ICU occupancy, and ventilator use. 

RESULTS  

Compared to licensed capacity and average annual occupancy rates, excess demand from COVID-19 at the peak of the pandemic in the second week of April is predicted to be 64,175 (95% UI 7,977 to 251,059) total beds and 17,309 (95% UI 2,432 to 57,584) ICU beds. At the peak of the pandemic, ventilator use is predicted to be 19,481 (95% UI 9,767 to 39,674). The date of peak excess demand by state varies from the second week of April through May. We estimate that there will be a total of 81,114 deaths (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) from COVID-19 over the next 4 months in the US. Deaths from COVID-19 are estimated to drop below 10 deaths per day between May 31 and June 6.


In addition to a large number of deaths from COVID-19, the epidemic in the US will place a load well beyond the current capacity of hospitals to manage, especially for ICU care. These estimates can help inform the development and implementation of strategies to mitigate this gap, including reducing non-COVID-19 demand for services and temporarily increasing system capacity. These are urgently needed given that peak volumes are estimated to be only three weeks away. The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths.
 
Citation: 
IHME COVID-19 health service utilization forecasting team. Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months. MedRxiv. 26 March 2020. doi:

[Bob Butler 54]

(03-28-2020, 01:33 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: Nor can we change the red opinions that you hold....

Yup, lots of people are unreachable..... some men you just can't reach. What we've got here is, failure to communicate.

I like to think I can change, but admittedly it is against reality rather the in debates on this and similar sites.  

For example, a month or three ago, I was beginning to believe there would be no Trigger Event and no Crisis coming before the Boomers entirely aged out.  Why?  The major powers were fighting proxy wars not crisis wars.  More was being done with legislation in the Awakening rather than with war in the Crisis.  I was working towards the High or the Awakening being transformational in the Industrial Age.  Without the trauma of a Crisis War effecting the parents child rearing style, the new generation of Artists would not grow up traumatized and thus might not follow the S&H pattern.  All of this was against S&H theory.  It was not how it went in the Industrial Age.  It might be the pattern in the Information Age…

Then I tentatively identified the Coronavirus as the trigger.  The Regeneracy, the changes in values to respond to the Coronavirus would indeed sell the blue values.  The continued following of the red Republican old values would cause massive deaths.  This is the type of blunt force hit em on the head sort of thing that makes even the most stubborn people accept the new values.  It could bring people less extreme to tip the balance.

It could not change everyone.  My boss’s brother had an odd gift.  He had an ability to pick up accents, and thus could speak German as a native and pass as a local.  One trip to a European ski resort he made friends with a few locals, and during one break between ski runs his companion made a pertinent comment.  “We should have killed more Jews when we had the chance.”  We did not destroy the old fascist values.  We just submerged them.  We blocked them from surfacing again, made it impossible for them to be made government policy again.  We made the Germans pretend, some of them.  People are that stubborn in clinging to their values.

Think Atlanta in 1864 or Berlin in 1944.  This is the sort of massive death that it takes to cause a major values change.  My poor attempts at debating clearly cannot match what happened to Atlanta or Berlin.  There is something about fire, destruction and death.

And of course the existence of the Trigger and Regeneracy within the timeframe of the Proper - Nomad - Hero Crisis configuration of generations meant throwing away the no-trigger conjectures.  What is happening now is much more in line with what S&H proposed.

Can you think of any time when your values shifted?  Anyone?  What does it take before you will?  Will the few percent lethality of the Coronavirus plus a slight chance or reducing lung capacity be enough?

[beechnut79]

Might be happening now as a result of germ warfare as opposed to military warfare.

[Eric the Green]

(03-28-2020, 05:30 PM)beechnut79 Wrote: Might be happening now as a result of germ warfare as opposed to military warfare.

That is not the corona virus, of course. It and other recent such plagues came about as a result of our encroachment on animals because of our tendency to conquer their living space and abuse them. Overpopulation and rampant greed created this corona crisis. It is one aspect of our overall environmental crisis, which is the primary crisis with which this 4T must deal and make progress on if civilization is to survive.

Legislative advances came early in the previous 4T, in 1933-35, but has not occurred in this one, yet. The planetary position of Saturn, a 30-year cycle, has often indicated such periods, when it reaches Aquarius and Pisces. This happened in the progressive era in the 1900s, the New Deal of the 1930s, and the civil rights and great society era of the 1960s. Two Awakenings, and one Crisis period. The Revolution in France moves to the same cycle, among others, as Saturn moved into Aquarius arousing some demands for reform from aristocrats, but which was flooded with the ideas and trends of the time and under Saturn in Pisces swelled into the resolution to create a new constitution, the storming of the Bastille, the fall of feudalism and the declaration of the rights of man and citizen. This was a fourth turning. The uprisings of 1848 as another 4th turning beckoned or began (depending on your reckoning) came during another transit of Saturn in Pisces.

Saturn is now testing the fresh airs and waters of Aquarius as of this week as our legislature passed unprecedented stimulus and recovery because of the corona crisis, in the middle of a 4T. Although the early 4T has continued the fruitless stalemate of Reaganomics America, only now (rather than early on as in the last 4T) are the planets indicating that legislative advances are beginning and will expand in the next half-decade.

Values shift mostly in social moments, which are usually 2T Awakenings and 4T Crises. I know from my own experience just how strongly a values shift can be as a result of a typical prophet generation's spiritual awakening. It has not often taken great wars and their accompanied disasters for such changes to happen in history, as my new thread relates, and I hardly think that the horrors of 1944 and 1864 changed values. 

What they did do was cause important changes to bring into our institutions the ideals of the Awakening that had not yet been sufficiently instituted by those Awakenings. They moved the needle of history forward through heroic efforts. The movement against slavery was a big part of the romantic movement and the Awakening in the 1830s, but it took the civil war and the overwhelming defeat of the South before slavery could be abolished. The ideals of peace, self-determination and world responsibility that has arisen during the turn of the century Awakening and voiced at The Hague in 1907, and championed by Woodrow Wilson and by the founding of the League of Nations, were not sufficiently established by this awakening era and third turning to prevent the world wars. The early 1940s Holocaust however brought about the defeat of the old imperialism and the 19th century nationalist racism embodied in the Nazis, and thus enabled the United Nations to be founded and allowed humanity to rise above racism to an extent in the following 1T and 2T Awakening. 

If the crisis of today and through the next decade has any significance, it will be because it brings into institutions the legacy of the inspiring awakenings of the sixties and the new consciousness and social movements that began then, and which have continued off and on in some after-glows in the years since then.

[Bob Butler 54]

(03-28-2020, 05:30 PM)beechnut79 Wrote: Might be happening now as a result of germ warfare as opposed to military warfare.

Doubtful.  Certainly not aimed at us.  It first hit at China.

Also, if you are advanced enough that you are messing with germ warfare, you would use an agent that mutated rapidly into harmlessness.  You saw how rapidly this one became global?  That is the problem with bio attacks.  They tend to hit the human race rather than stay active in only one country.

[pbrower2a]

(03-28-2020, 02:50 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: As credible as anything so far.



Publication date: 
March 26, 2020
 
View the COVID-19 US projections data visualization
 
IMPORTANCE

This study presents the first set of estimates of predicted health service utilization and deaths due to COVID-19 by day for the next 4 months for each state in the US.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the extent and timing of deaths and excess demand for hospital services due to COVID-19 in the US.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This study used data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths by day from WHO websites and local and national governments; data on hospital capacity and utilization for US states; and observed COVID-19 utilization data from select locations to develop a statistical model forecasting deaths and hospital utilization against capacity by state for the US over the next 4 months.
EXPOSURE(S)
COVID-19.
MAIN OUTCOME(S) AND MEASURE(S)
Deaths, bed and ICU occupancy, and ventilator use. 

RESULTS  

Compared to licensed capacity and average annual occupancy rates, excess demand from COVID-19 at the peak of the pandemic in the second week of April is predicted to be 64,175 (95% UI 7,977 to 251,059) total beds and 17,309 (95% UI 2,432 to 57,584) ICU beds. At the peak of the pandemic, ventilator use is predicted to be 19,481 (95% UI 9,767 to 39,674). The date of peak excess demand by state varies from the second week of April through May. We estimate that there will be a total of 81,114 deaths (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) from COVID-19 over the next 4 months in the US. Deaths from COVID-19 are estimated to drop below 10 deaths per day between May 31 and June 6.


In addition to a large number of deaths from COVID-19, the epidemic in the US will place a load well beyond the current capacity of hospitals to manage, especially for ICU care. These estimates can help inform the development and implementation of strategies to mitigate this gap, including reducing non-COVID-19 demand for services and temporarily increasing system capacity. These are urgently needed given that peak volumes are estimated to be only three weeks away. The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths.
 
Citation: 
IHME COVID-19 health service utilization forecasting team. Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months. MedRxiv. 26 March 2020. doi:

...and this is already obsolete. Like most of us I often edit out mistakes and errors because such things are embarrassing. 

Nobody has egg on his face for this projection. It is the best that anyone had at the time, just like many predicting that Hillary Clinton would succeed Barack Obama.

[sbarrera]

(03-28-2020, 10:31 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(03-28-2020, 02:50 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: As credible as anything so far.



Publication date: 
March 26, 2020
 
View the COVID-19 US projections data visualization
 
IMPORTANCE

This study presents the first set of estimates of predicted health service utilization and deaths due to COVID-19 by day for the next 4 months for each state in the US.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the extent and timing of deaths and excess demand for hospital services due to COVID-19 in the US.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This study used data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths by day from WHO websites and local and national governments; data on hospital capacity and utilization for US states; and observed COVID-19 utilization data from select locations to develop a statistical model forecasting deaths and hospital utilization against capacity by state for the US over the next 4 months.
EXPOSURE(S)
COVID-19.
MAIN OUTCOME(S) AND MEASURE(S)
Deaths, bed and ICU occupancy, and ventilator use. 

RESULTS  

Compared to licensed capacity and average annual occupancy rates, excess demand from COVID-19 at the peak of the pandemic in the second week of April is predicted to be 64,175 (95% UI 7,977 to 251,059) total beds and 17,309 (95% UI 2,432 to 57,584) ICU beds. At the peak of the pandemic, ventilator use is predicted to be 19,481 (95% UI 9,767 to 39,674). The date of peak excess demand by state varies from the second week of April through May. We estimate that there will be a total of 81,114 deaths (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) from COVID-19 over the next 4 months in the US. Deaths from COVID-19 are estimated to drop below 10 deaths per day between May 31 and June 6.


In addition to a large number of deaths from COVID-19, the epidemic in the US will place a load well beyond the current capacity of hospitals to manage, especially for ICU care. These estimates can help inform the development and implementation of strategies to mitigate this gap, including reducing non-COVID-19 demand for services and temporarily increasing system capacity. These are urgently needed given that peak volumes are estimated to be only three weeks away. The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths.
 
Citation: 
IHME COVID-19 health service utilization forecasting team. Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months. MedRxiv. 26 March 2020. doi:

...and this is already obsolete. Like most of us I often edit out mistakes and errors because such things are embarrassing. 

Nobody has egg on his face for this projection. It is the best that anyone had at the time, just like many predicting that Hillary Clinton would succeed Barack Obama.

Obsolete in a good way - overpredicting deaths - or in a bad way - underpredicting deaths?

[pbrower2a]

Under-predicting!

[Bob Butler 54]

I just got a Facebook image that my sister picked up.

Quote:"I swear we are fighting two pandemics.  Coronavirus and stupidity."

[Bob Butler 54]

Flightradar24 has posted an article showing the decline in flights with lots of graphs.

[Eric the Green]

720,000 cases in the world, 34,000 deaths, 151,000 recoveries. The USA has by far the most cases with over 140,000, and the most new cases with 17,000. New cases in California are not rising as fast as in other hard-hit states. Still #3 in the USA, it will fall to #7 soon.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Bob Butler 54]

CNN reports Armed vigilantes blocked a neighbor's driveway with a tree to force him into quarantine

The first report of militant action I bumped into...  on an island off Maine?