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Why I Am Worried
#1
Shocked 
self-fulfilling prophecy.  what is that

Self-fulfilling prophecy refers to the socio-psychological phenomenon of someone "predicting" or expecting something, and this “prediction” or expectation comes true simply because one believes it will,[1] and their resulting behaviors align to fulfil those beliefs. This suggests peoples' beliefs influence their actions. The principle behind this phenomenon is people create consequences regarding people or events, based on their previous knowledge toward that specific subject. Additionally, self-fulfilling prophecy is applicable to negative and positive outcomes.

American sociologist William Isaac Thomas was the first to discover this phenomenon. In 1928 he developed the Thomas theorem (also known as the Thomas dictum), stating,
If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences.[2]

that's what wiki says

from what I have seen and am now seeing the way big news are reacting, it's fear and stress.  That's going to lead to more empty shelves, more fear and more stress.

But I'm convinced this is the event the authors talked about as possibly the defining moment in the Saeculum. From my many readings and contemplation of the texts, I ramble on to say.....

a global event shaking the world, no one is exempt, such as WWII but where previous, "global" would mean the entirety of the reach of the U.S. such as Civil War and Revolution from England, the event that will either enhance or destroy us, the time of great sacrifice, greater than that which led up to it where I would describe in this context as the 2008 crash and following Great Depression 2 that really for many never ended, culminating in where we are right now.

the authors said it would have SO fast, and would balloon SO explosively, the time of the 4th Turning moves incredibly fast, they always say that. 

Many here in this forum have been speculating on when that would be, they have tried figuring out where we are in the Saeculum, I would say it happened this past weekend.

Oh but my point was, this thing is spiraling outward, we are losing control not because ppl are siick but because there wont be food on the shelves at Vons or Ralphs. <-- that's what I am worried about.

I am not worried about getting sick. I'm not sitting in my crib with a mask on. FUCK that. I won't view this as some dark demon creeping under the cracks of the door.

Also, we will either be enhanced by this or destroyed. That's how I see it and that's how the authors define what America will BE after this point. Winter can last short or long, be brutal or benign.

I am putting together personal knowledge from many interviews by the authors and many more by Strauss who is still living. He speaks now and then. He tends to say the same exact things over and over, but I have picked up nuances. And their themes are so strong. I felt for a long while that I wasn't getting it. I'm getting it more living through it. And I am old enough now to have a past recollection of certain patterns I'd noticed myself in historical events and patterns.
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#2
It sure does feel like a regeneracy. Everyone is united in their stupidity.
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#3
(03-19-2020, 08:39 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: It sure does feel like a regeneracy.  Everyone is united in their stupidity.

As I read your post, it mad me think the ultimate goal might just be we all learn to settle out differences and start working together to solve problems.  Whether in stupidity or not, the message from everywhere is "we need to work together".

I suspect like you, I am not one who loves herd mentality on the surface.  It's boring and sucks.  Through reading these books, I realize now what they meant that ideology must pass away and Groupthink (the opposite of ideology) must take over.  Ideology First - of any kind - cannot stand.  It's in the way of progress. 

That is why the authors predict a coming extremely boring culture, Groupthink and a society that will DO everything and FEEL nothing.

The Group doesn't feel, it just does.  We need some of that right now.  I am tired of feeling one side is right or wrong.  It doesn't lead anywhere.  That's how it made sense to me, at least.
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#4
(03-19-2020, 08:47 PM)TheNomad Wrote:
(03-19-2020, 08:39 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: It sure does feel like a regeneracy.  Everyone is united in their stupidity.

As I read your post, it mad me think the ultimate goal might just be we all learn to settle out differences and start working together to solve problems.  Whether in stupidity or not, the message from everywhere is "we need to work together".

I suspect like you, I am not one who loves herd mentality on the surface.  It's boring and sucks.  Through reading these books, I realize now what they meant that ideology must pass away and Groupthink (the opposite of ideology) must take over.  Ideology First - of any kind - cannot stand.  It's in the way of progress. 

That is why the authors predict a coming extremely boring culture, Groupthink and a society that will DO everything and FEEL nothing.

The Group doesn't feel, it just does.  We need some of that right now.  I am tired of feeling one side is right or wrong.  It doesn't lead anywhere.  That's how it made sense to me, at least.

You two have ideological reasons to think the virus is not real, so thus the society that is responding to the reality of things is described as stupid or boring. I happen to believe in the science, and think society is taking sensible precautions.

The old values are to reject science and to indulge in fantasy realities which support the old ideologies. I suspect if the virus Crisis becomes real, and it is heading that way fast, an ideology that respects science is apt to become part of the new values.

My own values place science first, politics and religion are second and third respectively, able to suggest some answers to problems that can’t be resolved empirically. It is natural, I suppose, to project these scientific values as becoming more universal as the Crisis goes on and the new values supersede the old. I see progress. Others may not yet see or want to see the real problem or buy into the obvious solution.

We will see how this unfolds.

What Nomad describes as “The Group” I see as the blue world view. We have spent years of the Unraveling and early Crisis refining the red and blue ideologies. The virus is forcing us to pick one. I suspect our response will include more science. It has already forced rejection of Trump’s fantasies.
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#5
Let's keep in mind what Groupthink actually is.  Here's the Wikipedia definition:


Quote:Groupthink is a psychological phenomenon that occurs within a group of people in which the desire for harmony or conformity in the group results in an irrational or dysfunctional decision-making outcome.

Stupidity is part of the definition.
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#6
(03-19-2020, 09:56 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: You two have ideological reasons to think the virus is not real, so thus the society that is responding to the reality of things is described as stupid or boring.  I happen to believe in the science, and think society is taking sensible precautions.
[/quote]

Boring but very necessary. You come from an era of wild interpretations of music, radical thought and wayward consciences.  I am informed from that era.  I hate ordinary and boring.  However, I am realizing the Unordinary  and the Exciting gets nothing done. I feel like that is how Strauss and Howe broke down the swaying of the Saeculum:

Inner Journey (individual)
Outward Conglomeration (group)

I think they were saying when one is strong, the other is weak.  It's just that way, according to them.

Quote:The old values are to reject science and to indulge in fantasy realities which support the old ideologies.  I suspect if the virus Crisis becomes real, and it is heading that way fast, an ideology that respects science is apt to become part of the new values.

This is not about any values.  Even, I would go so far to say, Kylo Ren style:

"Let values die.  Kill them if you have to."

Only when values-driven approaches die we can work together in unity to solve the problems of the future.  That's not what I necessarily inherently believe at all. That's just what I see happening ACCORDING to the books I read associated with this site.

Quote:What Nomad describes as “The Group” I see as the blue world view.  We have spent years of the Unraveling and early Crisis refining the red and blue ideologies.  The virus is forcing us to pick one.  I suspect our response will include more science.  It has already forced
rejection of Trump’s fantasies.

we are not being forced to choose a values side.  We are being challenged to leave values behind until the next arm of the Saeculum.  When the next Prophet comes, after the Hero and Artist have redefined everything into their bland, "cookie cutter" existence.  That song of ticky tacky boxes?  That was from the time of the hippies when they were bashing their parents and grandparents for their culture as totally all SIMILAR and BORING.  That's what it takes to get past the Crisis hurdle.  It happened the last time for sure.  Why can't we learn from it?
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#7
Values.  Worldview.  Ideology.  It is all the same.  Even your faux system has two of them butting heads.  It is just that your young generations and their newer values are so undefined that they might as well not exist.

By the way, I didn’t find the Awakening similar and boring.  Live draft cards, coat hanger abortions, hotels and restaurants refusing blacks service, stinking water, butting heads against glass ceilings, hot wars…  The old culture was not boring and not perfect.  There were reasons we made as much noise as we did.

Your describing it as “SIMILAR and BORING” is yet another bit of evidence of how little you understand the times.
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#8
(03-19-2020, 10:43 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Values.  Worldview.  Ideology.  It is all the same.  Even your faux system has two of them butting heads.  It is just that your young generations and their newer values are so undefined that they might as well not exist.

By the way, I didn’t find the Awakening similar and boring.  Live draft cards, coat hanger abortions, hotels and restaurants refusing blacks service, stinking water, butting heads against glass ceilings, hot wars…  The old culture was not boring and not perfect.  There were reasons we made as much noise as we did.

Your describing it as “SIMILAR and BORING” is yet another bit of evidence of how little you understand the times.

The Awakening is the beginning of all things new.  Why would it be boring?  They were rebelling against their parents.  Their parents are the ones that lived through TGD and WWII.  When everything became new and polished literally and everything figuratively went the wayside. 

You don't seem to have a handle on what I am saying.  Coat hanger abortion is not ideology, it is necessity. Refusing blacks is not ideology but a CULTURALLY EMBEDDED RACISM.  It still lingers now.  It was not solved, only progressed. The music of the era sucked and was boring.  Everyone wore the same clothes.  Homes looked identical.  People had the same colored walls, watched the same TV shows on the same TV sets, eating the same frozen foods from the same identical freezers and vacuuming the floor with the exact same cleaners.

Step out of the idea of "perfect".  The roads were new.  The bridges were at peak integrity.  The new social reforms like laws and edicts were brought into what we would call "modernity" for the time.  Everything became "new" on the outside.  Structural resurrection.  Things were tore apart and put back together.

Then, the efforts of Groupthink it took to get all that done led to cultural stagnation.  To which the Boomer Prophet rebelled against.

Everything I just said is almost word for word from The 4th Turning.
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#9
(03-19-2020, 08:39 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: It sure does feel like a regeneracy.  Everyone is united in their stupidity.

One partisan side seems to more respect intellectual activity and its results more than does the other. The other side seems to prefer superstition and dogma. One partisan side recognizes that it cannot substitute any one of many cultural traditions over another (the struggle is not between some of the most disparate traditions on Earth that can seem to exist in harmony), and one partisan side seems to be connected heavily to two (Mountain and Deep South. The most that any two of the traditions on one of the sides can do is to meld at a personal or family level; the other sees the melding of two cultures establishing a proper norm for us all. 

We do not have a struggle between tradition and modernity; we have a struggle between two traditions (the Mountain South and the Deep South -- but only among whites in the latter). 

No side is united in wisdom. 

The reaction to CORVID-19 looks much like a regeneracy with people abruptly changing many of their behaviors under a threat (mass death characteristic of a war going badly). The solution from both sides seems to be regimentation to get people to keep their distance for the duration. Nobody can say how long the duration is. We all know the consequences: not only do we not want to get sick with a disease of unknown severity, but we do not want to finish off Grandpa or Grandma. 

Most of us expect the world to change. Our economic behaviors will change. We will be more socially limited. (Oh, do I wish that I still had a dog to walk...) Many of the sleazy deals that we have made in recent years will suddenly prove unworkable. 

But the Crisis is far from over, although we are probably entering the final stage. Things can move fast. I expect the 2020 election to establish some new consensus about the direction of American political, cultural, and economic life. Neither side will yield, but one will break. That is all that I can say while trying to be neutral.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#10
(03-19-2020, 11:32 PM)TheNomad Wrote: Then, the efforts of Groupthink it took to get all that done led to cultural stagnation.  To which the Boomer Prophet rebelled against.

They rebelled against one form of groupthink with another form of groupthink. Very briefly the hippie movement flashed a soon abandoned set of ideals.
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