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Quarantine Shaming and Emergence of Groupthink
#1
https://apnews.com/0714c8c609d604579d00ab93cd6df12c

Being a student of Generational Cycles means comparing and contrasting archetypes and learning from them.

So, in the era of the Prophet, the hippie, the free spirit, the ones who had sex with everyone without caring, we now see the opposite swing of NOW with Groupthink emerging.  Ppl being chastised publicly for "spreading the virus".

Can anyone reconcile these two things?  Flower children laying down with anyone they chose created the world of rampant herpes and HIV.... but also other common, curable viruses and diseases based on refusing to be hygienic.  Being hygienic would have caused them to miss out on what they wanted to do.  That was not something those Prophet archetypes would allow.  They embraced potentially toxic drugs and binge alcohol drinking, they SOUGHT OUT things like peyote and ayahuasca (unknown to the white man until then), risking everything for their singular vision.

All the sex they had ALONE created a wasteland generation of Nomad, their children, who grew up not with the idea of Free Love but with the reality that sex could possibly kill them, maim them, or affect them for life.  Thanks, Flowers.

Back then, there were basically two groups: the group I just mentioned, and the group who challenged them as being "straight-edgers". 

Now, in 2020, we see EVERYONE gathered together in a common purpose around a common campfire.  The era of Groupthink is upon us.  We do not have mass freedoms at the sake of others, we do not have adulation of risky behavior, we have a singular consciousness (at least as of last weekend) to do the right thing.

So we can see, Prophet has always had two groups.  The ones who refused to conform and the ones who did conform.  They have been fighting since Summer of Love and have never stopped.  Hero has had singular ideology from just being who they are.  Not that they believe the same things, but they shun anything with "belief" attached to it.  Maybe that is their form of rebellion, that I cannot say.
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#2
There will be people who circumvent the quarantine. Human desires (including greed, drugs, and the sex drive) are what they are, and they push people to do unwise things. Just look at Jeffrey Epstein and Harvey Weinstein, the former having offed himself out of fear of a prison term with the pedophile tag on him and the latter seemingly destined to Riker's Island, not to be confused with such island paradises as Maui or New Zealand. (Or if one is intellectual, Manhattan).

Evading the quarantine may be shameful, but some of us might use it for constructive purposes -- seeking new employment if we dislike a job from which we got laid off, reading, listening to great music, or maybe creating something. The paint brush and canvas... or writing... await me. Heck, I am even thinking of doing a paint job on my laptop to make it less banal (I hope that what I write using it isn't so banal). Some of us might take the promised grant of $1000 and upgrade some skills online. Don't knock home improvements such as adding a new coat of paint or replacing the wallpaper.

When this quarantine is over I can think of many places that I want to go. Personal isolation is miserable -- bad enough for someone on the autistic spectrum in a bad domestic relationship who lives in a community in which he might as well be a circus freak -- but has no viable means for more than a temporary respite.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#3
What Nomad is calling Groupthink corresponds to the unity of the Profit, Nomad & Hero after the Trigger, Regeneracy and into the heart of the crisis.  This is a major feature of S&H.  It occurs every Crisis.  It refines the new values which are enforced in the coming high.  Basically, the ideals at the heart of the crisis are accepted by most and made part of the culture.

The virus is more and more looking like the Trigger for this time around.  A little late - the Prophets are getting too old to run for president, and about to cede control - but not never.  The primary trial and error will be performed by the medical community, but it looks like we will all play parts, and the urgency is apt to spread to other issues.

If so, the virus is illustrating the idea that politics must acknowledge science, that one cannot create lies and fantasy perspectives that have nothing to do with reality.  It is unexpected, but is shaped to illustrate and force acceptance of a key part of the progressive worldview.

Nomad is abandoning S&H language, making up his own, to try to create his own lies and fantasy, to attempt to deny the cycles.

I am personally hoping the quarantine will last less long than the four years it traditionally takes to fight a Crisis war.  The military usually has to spend time mobilizing, learning how to most effectively use the weapons of the time, and eventually push the fronts.  It will probably take the medical community less time, but the new unity will likely spread to global warming and other issues stalled by conservative ideology (or Groupthink) to ignore problems and not take action.

I personally think we ought to stick with S&H language and theory and not go with Nomad’s alternate.
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#4
(03-21-2020, 07:06 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: What Nomad is calling Groupthink corresponds to the unity of the Profit, Nomad & Hero after the Trigger, Regeneracy and into the heart of the crisis.  This is a major feature of S&H.  It occurs every Crisis.  It refines the new values which are enforced in the coming high.  Basically, the ideals at the heart of the crisis are accepted by most and made part of the culture.

The virus is more and more looking like the Trigger for this time around.  A little late - the Prophets are getting too old to run for president, and about to cede control - but not never.  The primary trial and error will be performed by the medical community, but it looks like we will all play parts, and the urgency is apt to spread to other issues.

If so, the virus is illustrating the idea that politics must acknowledge science, that one cannot create lies and fantasy perspectives that have nothing to do with reality.  It is unexpected, but is shaped to illustrate and force acceptance of a key part of the progressive worldview.

Nomad is abandoning S&H language, making up his own, to try to create his own lies and fantasy, to attempt to deny the cycles.

I am personally hoping the quarantine will last less long than the four years it traditionally takes to fight a Crisis war.  The military usually has to spend time mobilizing, learning how to most effectively use the weapons of the time, and eventually push the fronts.  It will probably take the medical community less time, but the new unity will likely spread to global warming and other issues stalled by conservative ideology (or Groupthink) to ignore problems and not take action.

I personally think we ought to stick with S&H language and theory and not go with Nomad’s alternate.

The "unity" seen for the first time right now IS the beginning of Regeneracy - to which I am of course not opposed.

This "unity" must overcome the paradigm of the Prophet.  He is not involved because he wants to be, it is of necessity only.  And in youth, the Prophet does not conform, generally, to such a paradigm shift except on his own terms.  It is never about unification.

What we are seeing now is the beginning (NOT THE FULFILLMENT) of the Groupthink that will bring stale culture.  To which the next Prophet will rebel against in the next Awakening.

Please agree:

when Individualism is strong, OUTWARD regeneracy is weak.
When Collectivism is strong, INNER regeneracy is weak.

When you understand the above concept, we can begin to understand each other.  We are not here talking in our own terms and phrases since we are in the Generational Cycles forum concerning the ideology (NOT VALUES) of Strauss and Howe.

Values =/= Ideology
Ideology = / = Values

There's an incredibly stark difference.

Anyone who leads first with Values in the coming Regeneracy will be utterly shunned and left out.  You will be seen as part of the problem, not as part of the solution.

Not every human being has values.  Every human has ideology even if they know it or do not know it.  Not every human without values is IMMORAL either.  What the Regeneracy generation will come to be defined as (as has been previously) is a generation that sets aside all values in order to accomplish great things OUTWARDLY.  That is why they feel inwardly dead once all the accomplishment has been done.

Thus, usher in the next Prophet to revive in the opposite direction.

Yin and Ying are not values-driven.  They just are.  The ebb and flow of the wave accuses no one and has no righteous indignation.  It is a force of nature.  Prophet is not Yin/Yang oriented.  Prophet is an archetype of very inwardly-driven CAUSE.

That CAUSE-mentality has almost destroyed America.  Thank the gods I now know it won't destroy us, but only turn another corner in our history.
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#5
(03-21-2020, 01:40 PM)TheNomad Wrote: The "unity" seen for the first time right now IS the beginning of Regeneracy - to which I am of course not opposed.

Hmm.  Most people are past the realization that a problem exists and into the trial and error phase about solving it, but I would generally agree.  It is just that this is a faster than usual Crisis.

(03-21-2020, 01:40 PM)TheNomad Wrote: This "unity" must overcome the paradigm of the Prophet.  He is not involved because he wants to be, it is of necessity only.  And in youth, the Prophet does not conform, generally, to such a paradigm shift except on his own terms.  It is never about unification.

In the Industrial Age the new ideals were declared in the Awakening, but only implemented in the Crisis.  There was a lot of compromise and negotiation in the Unravelling.  In the Information Age most of the problems the Prophets made noise about were addressed and resolved during the Awakening through legislation.  During the Unraveling, they blue were pretty much on the defensive, engaging when the concepts implemented by the GIs were attacked by the Conservatives.

But the concepts of red and blue are not new.  They have roots before the New Deal in robber barons and reformers.  The modern era is only reinforcing the old concept of blue, in particular using science based information rather than wishful thinking to shape government response to problems.  

(03-21-2020, 01:40 PM)TheNomad Wrote: What we are seeing now is the beginning (NOT THE FULFILLMENT) of the Groupthink that will bring stale culture.  To which the next Prophet will rebel against in the next Awakening.

Agreed.  When the Crisis is over, when the High comes, when the Nomads are in charge, there has traditionally been a time of materialism, infrastructure building, and rejecting the values that were old coming into the Crisis.  In this case, this would be the red perspective.  

We are not though improving.  The next group of Prophets will likely find something very legitimate to complain about.  But the blue agenda has been well set over the years.

(03-21-2020, 01:40 PM)TheNomad Wrote: Please agree:
when Individualism is strong, OUTWARD regeneracy is weak.
When Collectivism is strong, INNER regeneracy is weak.

When you understand the above concept, we can begin to understand each other.  We are not here talking in our own terms and phrases since we are in the Generational Cycles forum concerning the ideology (NOT VALUES) of Strauss and Howe.

Values =/= Ideology
Ideology = / = Values

There's an incredibly stark difference.

Anyone who leads first with Values in the coming Regeneracy will be utterly shunned and left out.  You will be seen as part of the problem, not as part of the solution.

I disagree.  I see worldview, values, ideals, cultures, groupthink, political parties as all dealing with a large number of people sharing similar models of how the world works and values which define what they will work towards.  There are slightly different aspects associated with each word, but all involve an understanding of how the world should work (a world view), and what is important to a well running world (values).

Just because you cannot describe and define how your future groups might commonly understand the world, might work towards specific things, that does not mean that future groups if they really form won't have them. Your ignorance of a thing is not proof that it does not exist. 

I see that the Crisis after the Regeneracy as a time when loyalty to the country is strongest, when those obsessed with individual goals are most shunned.  This is very different from the Unraveling.  The time has come to work towards common culture wide goals.  We will fall back to individualistic greed later.  During the Unraveling, I sold out too.  In working towards the blue agenda and the cause, I am not at all anticipating being shunned.  It is those who constantly complain about the necessary that have to worry.

(03-21-2020, 01:40 PM)TheNomad Wrote: Not every human being has values.  Every human has ideology even if they know it or do not know it.  Not every human without values is IMMORAL either.  What the Regeneracy generation will come to be defined as (as has been previously) is a generation that sets aside all values in order to accomplish great things OUTWARDLY.  That is why they feel inwardly dead once all the accomplishment has been done.

Thus, usher in the next Prophet to revive in the opposite direction.

An immoral person will not do certain things, which implies to me values and ideology.  It may be only a unrelated by logic list, such as Ten Commandments supposedly handed down by God, but it still counts if the person believes in them.

(03-21-2020, 01:40 PM)TheNomad Wrote: Yin and Ying are not values-driven.  They just are.  The ebb and flow of the wave accuses no one and has no righteous indignation.  It is a force of nature.  Prophet is not Yin/Yang oriented.  Prophet is an archetype of very inwardly-driven CAUSE.

That CAUSE-mentality has almost destroyed America.  Thank the gods I now know it won't destroy us, but only turn another corner in our history.

I am not sure how you dragged Yin and Yang into this.  You can perceive the red and blue as dynamic opposites, with positive outcomes coming from a balance between them.  This sort of opposes S&H, which suggests one phase of an ideology or culture gets overcome every four score and seven years.  Instead of a pendulum you get a spiral.  You do see a steady swing between conservative and progressive, but there is also a steady improvement as the culture grows and evolves.  Each time the old culture has been imperfect, and come the Awakening of the Industrial Age, Prophets point out the imperfections to be addressed in the next Crisis.  They seem to have been addressed much sooner in the Information Age.

And that is how America evolves.  Not steadly, but in four score and seven year fits and starts.  The causes - getting rid of kings, getting rid of slaves, getting rid of fascists - are real and necessary steps for growth.  They have not destroyed America.  They have redefined it, allowed it to grow.

In your obsession with the Prophets this time being evil, you fail to perceive the very real flaws in America that did exist.  In not defining an ideology that ties your group together, arbitrarily you try to claim goops will come together for no reason, without a common understanding or set of goals. What makes a group a group? The hypothetical Nomad - Hero - Artist alliance in your bogus ideology is not given a reason to exist or a common understanding. That just is an indication that the ideology is incomplete.

I find it more essential to assert the ideologies do exist, that the red Republicans and Blue Democrats have declared platforms which people have voted on.  The progressive agenda is real, and the Coronavirus has gone a long way to uniting us behind one long existing but ever changing set of ideals.
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#6
(03-21-2020, 06:04 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: In your obsession with the Prophets this time being evil, you fail to perceive the very real flaws in America that did exist.  In not defining an ideology that ties your group together, arbitrarily you try to claim goops will come together for no reason, without a common understanding or set of goals.

I find it more essential to assert the ideologies do exist, that the red Republicans and Blue Democrats have declared platforms which people have voted on.  The progressive agenda is real, and the Coronavirus has gone a long way to uniting us behind one long existing but ever changing set of ideals.

Winter is associated with evil in most places where winter harms the community.  Harsh, brazen, uncompromising and bitter. I don't, however, view that arm of the Saeculum as evil.  I definitely used to. With age, I recognize seasons must happen and will not be set aside. And that nothing is evil except where a person makes it so.  As I mentioned, the primal communities of ole greatly feared it in the North out of necessity.

If you wan to understand it as "YOUR individual liberty matters almost nothing as opposed to OURS" this is the way forward probably beginning with last weekend.  Do you get that?  About 40 years ago, it was "OUR individual liberty matters everything as opposed to YOURS".

See what I did there?  One of my books is going to be "Perspective Changes Everything" it applies to everything from cartography to nano-science.

But, we are in the peak of the swing.  The Prophet is no longer part of the solution, they cannot be.  They cannot get past the "aisle".  If I hear one more time "both sides of the aisle" I'm gonna hurl something at John King.  And I don't dislike mr king. That paradigm is is marked for death as of right now.  Everything that comes after right now is going to leave no room for any "aisle".  The "aisle" is going to get exploded.

You want to bring it with you?  Like heaven, you can't.  The "aisle" is passing away.  Let's rejoice instead of still trying to cling to it like some kneeler in church.

NOW................. so you understand my PERSONAL view.  This as opposed to what I just said.  My academia does not always align with who I will say "is that what I would have wanted before I knew better?"  I don't like Groupthink.  I hate it.  Nothing to me is more boring and constrictive of anything beautiful or desirous of being paid attention to.  I have a lot of respect for the Prophet archetype and I am more like THAT archetype personally than maybe any of the others.  I consider myself Prophet by choice and Nomad by circumstance.  I do not like that music has stagnated to a stand-still and no provocative art is even allowed.  While growing up, I fantasized about being raised by Donna Reed and then living with the Bradys.  So, if that helps you get my aura, good will to that.

I am not in here preaching from my inner pulpit about things I am fired up about.  I realize WHATEVER I believe in terms of where I am in the voting booth, it will NEVER fix the problems accrued since I was old enough to pay attention.  It seems like the same patterns and circles, politically, have gone on my entire life and then now we have this mountain.

Through understanding generational theory, I have a hope in the idea I might live to see an America reborn.  I am generally a kid of patriotism and the flag meant something to me in school. But none of that matters.  I refuse to give in to fighting someone across a stretch of carpet calling it "the aisle".  No more.  That thinking solves none of the problems.  It only perpetuates the DREAMS of the Prophet where in that dream they are the center of the universe.  Nothing real happens without it happening to them. It's all about them.  I am convinced this war of values that has been raging for 40 years COULD destroy us all if we don't choose a different way.

WE WILL.
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#7
The Prophet - Nomad - Hero configuration will likely be very important in resolving the current Crisis. You ought to read S&H again and focus on that. That is one of the larger differences between their ideology and your faux one.

The contest and red and blue may be going away, rather than the aisle. I am not sure. Biden is not Sanders. We will quite likely have a Crises light in which the blue agenda is not put fully in place. In this case the next Prophet group may find the most important flaws in the culture to be resolved next time are in the red - blue divide. In this case we could get a third red - blue Crisis. This would not be ideal, but looks like how we are heading.

Still, S&H claimed a Crisis brings on a larger change than is anticipated going in.

You do realize that ‘perspective’ is a word I sometimes use instead of world view? It indicates another way of looking at the world, another set of goals to work towards (values). Perspective does indeed change everything.

The USA does tend towards two major parties, two major ideologies, two perspectives. Even if the red - blue divide goes away with a total win by the blue, we are not yet perfect, and by the end of the Awakening I would expect another set of divides to grow to take place of the old ones. ‘The king is dead. Long live the king.’ You seem to be caught up in the end of history fallacy, that the end of one phase means the end of everything. I am not. The next generation of Prophets will find something legitimate to gripe about, and the next generation of conservatives will want to cling to the flaw to perpetuate privilege and wealth. The red and blue, alas, could ride again.

The flaws might easily be different, but the cycles are apt to go on.

You clearly are part of the anti goupthink groupthink. You should perhaps grow your hair, wear peace signs and wear bell bottom pants? Wink After we get to the High I anticipate we will relax somewhat, but there will still likely be the Ideology Police trying to stamp on the remnants of the red. The next Unravelling when individual goals are in their primacy is according to the theory far far away.

My generation of Prophets will indeed pass away. The next generation of Prophets will take their place. The flaws in society they will rebel against may well be different. The role they play in pointing out the flaws is less likely to be.
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#8
We need remember that the dominant Boomers in commerce and politics have generally been the most reactionary, rapacious, and selfish of their generation. The Boomers that got us into this mess will likely be swept aside at a critical moment and rendered irrelevant. The ones with principle, vision, and imagination will be part of the solution. People in their sixties are not too old to lead or be influential. But they must be seen as part of the solution and not part of the mess.

Boomers will not decide things with their votes either as the electorate or as legislators. Boomers are on the fade, and it is easy to imagine the Millennial Generation becoming the largest generation in the electorate and starting to take over in high political office. Millennial adults are more mature than geezers like Donald Trump who have become senile without ever having truly matured. If you want something that doesn't really grow up, then I might suggest a cocker spaniel. Humans who fail to develop emotionally, like Donald Trump, are just too dangerous and destructive.

The Millennial world will be very different from what we now know -- unless we are old enough to remember the 1950's. The Millennial world will be one in which equity in pay (the pay that can support a family) will be the norm and not the exception. In stead of asking whether a failing business of great size is too big to fail, Millennial leaders will ask whether such an entity is too big to save. Small business (this is more an X characteristic) will be more a norm than an exception. Taxes will be high to support pay-as-you-go funding instead of debt. Personal and public debt will be anathemas.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#9
(03-21-2020, 09:32 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The Prophet - Nomad - Hero configuration will likely be very important in resolving the current Crisis.  You ought to read S&H again and focus on that.  That is one of the larger differences between their ideology and your faux one.

The way I remember the narrative happening, the backlog of Crises becomes so overwhelming because of gridlock.  That gridlock comes from the battle of values/ideology (I don't like parse battles) between "aisles" and only ends when the Prophet (metaphorically) is "utterly spent" and has nothing more to give.  It steps away (figuratively) handing the reigns to Nomad.  When I find the exact quote, I will let you know.

I REALLY despise the idea of going to a book and citing chapter and verse.  I spent a lot of time having to do that with the bible and religious texts.  It's not a thing for me anymore. Nothing I can say would sway you from the values-driven theme, this post is as far as I'm willing to go to communicate, actually.

Quote:The contest and red and blue may be going away, rather than the aisle.  I am not sure.  Biden is not Sanders.  We will quite likely have a Crises light in which the blue agenda is not put fully in place.  In this case the next Prophet group may find the most important flaws in the culture to be resolved next time are in the red - blue divide.  In this case we could get a third red - blue Crisis.  This would not be ideal, but looks like how we are heading.  

Biden is Sanders.  I would prefer Sanders because he goes further than Biden.  Biden is a SAFE version of Sanders.  He is a conformist and a safe bet.  When that is not what we need in the Crisis, ensuring what is there now will remain.

HOW DID THAT HAPPEN?  How did we get the safest possible candidate?  From adherence to values-driven approach that sees a mirror image and then tries to imagine WHAT can beat that mirror image.  There's no room or possibility for a real implementation of anything.  I sense we will have what we have now until that "utterly spent" moment I quoted from the book.  I REALLY want to go find a page number, but I don't play those games anymore.
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#10
(03-22-2020, 03:36 AM)TheNomad Wrote:
(03-21-2020, 09:32 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The Prophet - Nomad - Hero configuration will likely be very important in resolving the current Crisis.  You ought to read S&H again and focus on that.  That is one of the larger differences between their ideology and your faux one.

The way I remember the narrative happening, the backlog of Crises becomes so overwhelming because of gridlock.  That gridlock comes from the battle of values/ideology (I don't like parse battles) between "aisles" and only ends when the Prophet (metaphorically) is "utterly spent" and has nothing more to give.  It steps away (figuratively) handing the reigns to Nomad.  When I find the exact quote, I will let you know.

I REALLY despise the idea of going to a book and citing chapter and verse.  I spent a lot of time having to do that with the bible and religious texts.  It's not a thing for me anymore. Nothing I can say would sway you from the values-driven theme, this post is as far as I'm willing to go to communicate, actually.

The various Crisis end with decisive victory, not with a particular generation becoming spent.  The exception might be Jim Crow, with no one being willing to fight for rights for the blacks anymore.  However, the Civil War proper ended in military victory.  Generally, I see the war part of a Crisis ending with fronts being pushed, followed by Constitution writing, amendments or the UN being created.  Failure by exhaustion may occur later during the Nomad's watch during the High?  People are less inclined to fight for abstract ideas? Materialism is more likely to dominate?

I am not a big fan of relying on a book either.  However, you present your system as pure S&H and it isn't.  The red and blue boomers are not a group as the two do not share a perspective. The blue boomers are of the Awakening and the progressive time. The red boomers are of the Unraveling and the conservative time. (Yes, I place the border with the election of Nixon, when the failures of the 1970s started. This is not book.)  You lump Nomads, Heroes and Artists together without providing reason, values or perspective.  Thus you could hypothesize anything.  

(03-22-2020, 03:36 AM)TheNomad Wrote:
(03-21-2020, 09:32 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The contest and red and blue may be going away, rather than the aisle.  I am not sure.  Biden is not Sanders.  We will quite likely have a Crises light in which the blue agenda is not put fully in place.  In this case the next Prophet group may find the most important flaws in the culture to be resolved next time are in the red - blue divide.  In this case we could get a third red - blue Crisis.  This would not be ideal, but looks like how we are heading.  

Biden is Sanders.  I would prefer Sanders because he goes further than Biden.  Biden is a SAFE version of Sanders.  He is a conformist and a safe bet.  When that is not what we need in the Crisis, ensuring what is there now will remain.

HOW DID THAT HAPPEN?  How did we get the safest possible candidate?  From adherence to values-driven approach that sees a mirror image and then tries to imagine WHAT can beat that mirror image.  There's no room or possibility for a real implementation of anything.  I sense we will have what we have now until that "utterly spent" moment I quoted from the book.  I REALLY want to go find a page number, but I don't play those games anymore.

I think most people are obsessed with beating Trump more than pushing the blue agenda.  I suspect this is a mistake.  We will have a weaker crisis leaving parts of the red - blue battle unresolved, not to be pushed perhaps until the Awakening.
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#11
(03-21-2020, 07:06 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I personally think we ought to stick with S&H language and theory and not go with Nomad’s alternate.

I agree. There are plenty of details that can be argued without trying to write another theory entirely.  For example, Mike Alexander casts a wide net, looking at cyclic theories very broadly, and tries to reconcile them -- or not, as the case may be.  He still colors inside the lines.  If we can't agree on something approaching a common set of assumptions, then why bother?  

We all agree that S&H proposed an incomplete theory.  That doesn't make it wrong. Most of us try to add a little or take away some here and there.  For those who  find the theory wrong at its core, moving on is an option.  Marc Lamb took that route.  It's still open to others.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#12
(03-22-2020, 07:09 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(03-22-2020, 03:36 AM)TheNomad Wrote: HOW DID THAT HAPPEN?  How did we get the safest possible candidate?  From adherence to values-driven approach that sees a mirror image and then tries to imagine WHAT can beat that mirror image.  There's no room or possibility for a real implementation of anything.  I sense we will have what we have now until that "utterly spent" moment I quoted from the book.  I REALLY want to go find a page number, but I don't play those games anymore.

I think most people are obsessed with beating Trump more than pushing the blue agenda.  I suspect this is a mistake.  We will have a weaker crisis leaving parts of the red - blue battle unresolved, not to be pushed perhaps until the Awakening.

Once again, I agree. Biden will be the only Silent President (assuming he wins). He'll also cross the boundary into his 80s before the following election. Let's assume his will be a voluntary single term as POTUS. So his VP choice becomes critical. If he follows the rule he set for himself, she will be one of the women who ran this time. Look there for a revolutionary change, if one will occur. If he chooses Elizabeth Warren, she'll also be a one-termer, but potentially a very dynamic one. I put her in the unlikely column for both ideological and age reasons. Neither Amy Klobuchar nor Kamala Harris are likely to make real change. That pushes the final change agent into the 2T or beyond.

I'll be sorry to miss it.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#13
This is the ugliest side of the Civic archetype, now they shame people who went for a run! All because of a disease that kills way less people than obesity-related conditions.

The next Civics could go even more extreme and lock down in VR, refusing to participate in physical reality because of some pathogen.
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#14
(03-22-2020, 09:20 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(03-21-2020, 07:06 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I personally think we ought to stick with S&H language and theory and not go with Nomad’s alternate.

I agree. There are plenty of details that can be argued without trying to write another theory entirely.  For example, Mike Alexander casts a wide net, looking at cyclic theories very broadly, and tries to reconcile them -- or not, as the case may be.  He still colors inside the lines.  If we can't agree on something approaching a common set of assumptions, then why bother?  

We all agree that S&H proposed an incomplete theory.  That doesn't make it wrong. Most of us try to add a little or take away some here and there.  For those who  find the theory wrong at its core, moving on is an option.  Marc Lamb took that route.  It's still open to others.

I have put here no "other" theory.  I am in this forum thanks to being enlightened by those books.

Short of putting page numbers here, I dare say my remembrance of the themes are quite good.  I am ALWAYS ready to learn.

There is no mistake of confusion for me what the authors said

1) Prophet battles values
2) that battle leads to stagnation
3) no one can agree and nothing happens due to that
4) ^^ leads to Crisis (this is what some do not want to accept)
5) The Prophet (THE LEADER PROPHET, NOT THE WHOLE FRAKKIN ARCHETYPE) steps down finally
6) the conglomerate of other archetypes step in to solve
7) new Prophet arrives, same thing builds up again over time

No one can or should be disputing this.  Just get used to it already.
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#15
(03-22-2020, 11:19 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote: This is the ugliest side of the Civic archetype, now they shame people who went for a run! All because of a disease that kills way less people than obesity-related conditions.

The next Civics could go even more extreme and lock down in VR, refusing to participate in physical reality because of some pathogen.

I would say this seems right.  Hero is a shadow of Prophet.  In youth, they will rebel (against what or how, that is unclear) and I understand what this person is saying. 

But that rebellion (as you mention) will turn into Groupthink by necessity.  Any Hero deemed to be acting like Prophet and leading with personal values will become ostracized from the group and be seen as part of the problem.  That's how stale culture is already emerging and will get worse.
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#16
(03-22-2020, 02:17 PM)TheNomad Wrote: I have put here no "other" theory.

No.  

(03-22-2020, 02:17 PM)TheNomad Wrote: Short of putting page numbers here, I dare say my remembrance of the themes are quite good.

No.

(03-22-2020, 02:17 PM)TheNomad Wrote: There is no mistake of confusion for me what the authors said

1) Prophet battles values
2) that battle leads to stagnation
3) no one can agree and nothing happens due to that
4) ^^ leads to Crisis (this is what some do not want to accept)
5) The Prophet (THE LEADER PROPHET, NOT THE WHOLE FRAKKIN ARCHETYPE) steps down finally
6) the conglomerate of other archetypes step in to solve
7) new Prophet arrives, same thing builds up again over time

No one can or should be disputing this.  Just get used to it already.

After busy times such as the Awakening and Crisis, it is human nature to have a quiet time like a High or Unravelling.  That is the whole population, not just the leader.  

Can you give an example of a leader who has prolonged a war or started another one as the Crisis has come to an end, in order to cling to power?  Patton did propose that we go after the Russians as we had the army over in Europe already, but most everyone else was exhausted by the Crisis and ready to go home and cash in their reward.  But Patton was only a corp leader.  Washington fought no more battles save the Whisky Rebellion, and dismissed the militia relatively quickly after the confrontation.  Lincoln and his successors sent the VI corp to the Mexican border, but did not cross the border, just used the ability to do so to force France out.  He only needed only one corp to make the point.  The poor VI corp missed the Washington DC victory parade.  Neither the S&H books or reality seem to propose power hunger prolongs Crises as your theory above proposes.

When the quarantine ends, I expect folk will pick up their jobs and be materialist again.  No need for another adventure.

Now, starting a Crisis war, that is another story.  In the Industrial Era, some greedy SOB was always eager to start things.  Even in the Information Age, one looks suspiciously at Bush 43 and his military and oil cabinet.

The behavior of ceasing a conflict is essentially the whole archetype, not the leader.  The mood lasts much longer than the leader.  You theory above has it backwards.
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#17
Power mad leader is not the description I would use. Prophet is, by nature, values driven and I have no doubt BELIEVES (feels in his bones) he or she is there, in power (that is why some have seen my pointing to Sanders or Biden) they may think THEY ALONE (their values?) must be instituted to solve whatever the problem is. Yet, when they get into power, they solve nothing because they and their peers cannot AGREE.

As for an example of "clinging to power" FDR comes to mind but was desired as such by the populace. AND that was a Crisis as well.

You say behavior is the archetype not the leader, I have always been saying that. I am saying now, clearly which I guess you need, Prophet archetype must DIMINISH and hand over power to the conglomerate instead of its Big Brotherian nature. Thinking it knows what is best, it has the right values, it has the right vision to solve things. When, clearly, that has led to our collective doom.

I must also add, your confusion of what I say may be partly in that I am not speaking about RIGHT NOW so much as what is coming. We are in the primordial stage of Groupthink. Thanks to the books, I can see it now. I can see what's coming. You act like I am saying Prophet should go to their collective graves, but they just need to stop clinging to their archetype being the solution and realize what it has led to. Maybe they, themselves, cannot recognize that bigger forces are causing the conglomerate to form and that they need to just let it happen.

In a right world, we would not be having people past the age of retirement trying to run for office and staying like Strom Thurman and these "lifers" into what, their 90s? That just helps no one. That man didn't even know what the Internet was probably. The current president has no idea or desire to know about the real emerging situations in America like global interface or tech-driven solutions for antiquated problems. These people are not equipped to handle such things, and just too old. If that isn't a clear identification of "hanging on too long" I dont know what is. They want to vote on legislation from their deathbed. It's not right and helps no one.
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#18
Rhett, you speak of who Biden will choose as running mate, etc............... all I see is a wonderful "ticket" on the surface, one ppl of blue will get behind because it looks good on paper, it won't win because it is too safe, and we will enjoy the next cycle with what we have now and we will all hate it.

Why? Why won't Biden/Warren be like an Obama resurgence? First, because it won't happen. If it does happen, Senate will fight them by name only. Fight them simply because they are blue. They both sides will do battle because that is all they have EVER done.

And nothing will continue to happen.

How does that help anyone? Candidates over 70yo cannot work together right now. Ppl are appearing to agree right now due to the virus, but it's not real and I doubt there is authentic agreement at all anyway.

If someone like Pete was coming into office, he spoke openly about being open to anyone. He is not a Prophet who has spent his whole life fighting with the other side of the "aisle" in values. I get many ppl speak of wanting to work to solve problems regardless of values, but he was authentic in that. And it could be if he was there, Senators would not want to deal with him either. But if you replaced every one of those same Senators (don't change their color, just replace them) with younger ones in Pete's age range?

I think we could be well into moving forward into the First Turning. Since nothing is going to change for another 4 years, maybe Pete and others will get their chance. I am specifically talking about age. Because as the authors have so eloquently expressed, PRAGMATISM (not values) is what defines Nomad and COLLECTIVE SERVICE is what will come to define Hero. Artist will act as a bridge between everyone (which means they might be the most adaptive and Group-thinky of any of these... at least when it comes to problem-solving.
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#19
(03-22-2020, 11:19 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote: This is the ugliest side of the Civic archetype, now they shame people who went for a run! All because of a disease that kills way less people than obesity-related conditions.

The next Civics could go even more extreme and lock down in VR, refusing to participate in physical reality because of some pathogen.

Marathons are mass meetings for runners. 

People have been told that they can shop for necessities such as food and medicine, that they can do yard work and gardening, and that they can walk the pooch. They can take their pets to the vet, they can get their cars repaired and serviced, they can buy gasoline, and they can get such things as art supplies and potted plants. It is telling that liquor is still available (which would not be so in a civic disorder). 

Bars, restaurants, and public libraries are closed in some places. Sporting events are cancelled. Stores are often operating on shortened hours. 

So far people seem to be taking things in stride. They are not as publicly chummy as they had been (and will be again as CORVID-19 abates). To be sure, the securities markets are taking big hits... but for that, the pandemic is simply the pretext for the meltdown of overpriced valuations in the presence of inadequate savings, excessive personal and public debt, and the infamous inverted-yield curve.     

They are strongly discouraged from attending mass meetings of any kind -- even religious services (those in Iran spread the virus with breathtaking and death-yielding speed). Government can do this to stop a disease that can kill perhaps hundreds of thousands of people . The idea is to flatten the curve so that the peak comes later and is less severe when it arrives so that  the medical-care system not be overwhelmed. 

Much will be put on hiatus. It is worth noting that a President whose response on this disease has been incompetent and dishonest (as on much else) is not giving the commands.

..........................................................................

 In retrospect people seem to have been fools to expect the DJIA hit 30K. It is more likely to hit 14K (which would be about as real a drop as the immediate fall from the peak of the summer of 1929, just under 50%) by May. The falling knife that we now see is a portent of a major recession that features a loss of 50% or more in the valuation of securities. 

It probably won't do as badly as the three-year meltdown of 1929-1932. Institutions are different, and if things go bad we will not have Donald Trump around to keep mucking up things.   

30K on the DJIA? The DJIA did not reach its 1929 peak again for 25 years. The government put getting people back to work, making the financial system sound, and getting real wages up instead of fueling any speculative booms. Tax increases on passive income debased dividends, and just when things were getting a little better, American involvement in World War II had the government issuing war bonds and discouraging speculation as well as other wasteful activities. By the 1940's shares in common stocks still had a reputation for undue riskiness.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#20
A few months ago I had similar scenarios cooking to Nomad's.  It looked like we were going through the Crisis configuration without a Trigger or a Regeneracy.  The 1960s Awakening had solved by legislation to the standards set in that time the Prophet’s assorted flaws.  The Prophet generation was split, and though the blues would resist any encroachments by the reds on what was done in their youth, they were slow to push an agenda forward.  There were lots of reasons for no Trigger and no Regeneracy.  With the Crisis era a dud, I was wondering if the High could be transformational and how it would take place.

Alternately, we could have repeated the transformational Awakening of the 1960s with the next Awakening being transformational.  That might be how one would go on to expect in the Information Age.  Smaller Crisis War triggers given the existence of nukes.  Resistance to anyone trying Neo colonialism.  No Trigger?

But the Coronavirus showed up, and it looks like we will have a familiar transformational Crisis after all.  With the Crisis active, there are good reasons for a follower of the theory to expect a passive High that follows the S&H pattern.

One thing to expect is an attempt to carve the values of this Crisis into stone.  In the three prior American Crises we had the Constitution written, the post Civil War amendments guaranteeing the blacks rights passed, and the creation of the UN.  

All three attempts at carving into stone resulted in a cracked rock.  The Constitution for all it’s slave compromises failed.  The country fell apart into civil war.  The blacks ran into Jim Crow.  The UN with its security council veto could not handle the Cold War.  All three attempts to some degree were frustrated.

I can see after the Coronavirus the World Health Organization or its successor will be put on steroids.  An attempt will be made to prevent the Coronavirus problem from happening again.  This will feature something to prevent countries from ignoring the science, but I am suspicious of end of Crisis stone setting.  It has a poor record.  I suspect the individual countries will be left sovereign, which will leave this style of problem a problem.

Paired with this will be global warming.  This is another problem which conservative governments have been able to ignore.   An attempt will be made to commit and to act.  These agreements will be ignored and bypassed in a similar way.  “Practical” and “non ideological” Nomad leadership has a way of moving backwards in the High.

This will give the next bunch of Prophets enough flaws to scream at the fossil materialists in charge?

But back to the High.  Again, with a Trigger, Regeneracy and trial and error period, there is no reason I can see not to expect the usual S&H style High.  From my memory of the books I would expect the following.

There will be materialism as the people will be tired of the idealistic fighting that cumulated with the Crisis.  A passive turning always follows and active one.  Nomad leadership by their nature are suspicious of cross the aisle fighting anyway.

They will build lots of infrastructure.  This might include recyclable energy, and rebuilding the bridges from the last High.  SpaceX is already working on outer space, but the entire space industry is on the edge of taking off.  The space industry could be an area similar to the building of railroads or superhighways in prior Highs.

There will be organizations such as the one McCarthy led, attempting to crush the ideologies that led us into the last Crisis.  There will be an intense feeling of dedication to the newer values of the prior Crisis with a corresponding submergence of the old.  Fantasy ideologies which oppose the teachings of science are not apt to do well.

Other than the blue worldview that won the last Crisis, other ideologies will not do well.  The Nomad led High during the Industrial Age was a time of great stagnation and materialism.  I don’t see anything to suppose it will not happen again.  At least, pure S&H leads one to expect it will.

Thus, I don’t see where Nomad is coming from.

What does anyone see to divert so much from S&H?  I am inclined to think the S&H pattern will be far truer than the theories that Nomad is coming up with.
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