When Did The "Crisis" Begin?

[Bob Butler 54]

On the original topic of the thread, what is the Trigger? First detection of Coronavirus in Wuhan is one obvious nomination. However, the regeneracy traditionally doesn’t happen until the government starts pushing the new values and agenda. It is obvious that Trump will drag his feet on that, to put it mildly. Thus, the 2021 inauguration might also be a nomination for trigger.

The governors are beginning to institute parts of the agenda, and the congress with the relief bills. That may count.

This leaves the exact moment in the traditional muddle and debate. One could say, that like prior crises, the crisis war ramps up slowly. There is some time between the key problem being identified and the government responding fully. You have a time interval between, say, the Harper’s Ferry raid and Fort Sumpter, between the start of World War II abroad and Pearl Harbor. In this case, the central problem has hit the stage, but the concentrated focus of the government response and the rest of the blue agenda are pending on the 2021 inauguration.

[Eric the Green]

(04-02-2020, 05:08 AM)Mickey123 Wrote:

(04-01-2020, 02:10 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Unlike Galen I think the mortality rate is much higher than even the experts say. Those who are asymptomatic and/or untested may also get sick and die. So far, looking at the actual stats,

closed cases:
239,413
Cases which had an outcome:

193,350 (81%)
Recovered / Discharged

46,063 (19%)
Deaths

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

among those cases that had an outcome, 19% died. The rest are still sick or have not been tested or their test results are not revealed yet, but are and have been added to the list of cases as the results come in. That looks to me like a 19% death rate, and that % has been increasing.

While it's possible that all the world's disease experts are wrong and you are correct, that would seem to be unlikely.  Especially given that they're looking at the mortality rate as being in the range of 1%, and you are calling it at 19%.

When I look at the actual numbers, it's 21%. The experts say 1% but it doesn't seem to be based on any observable statistics.

One thing is certain. For sure, if Galen says anything, it is wrong.

[Eric the Green]

(04-02-2020, 05:15 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(04-02-2020, 05:08 AM)Mickey123 Wrote: While it's possible that all the world's disease experts are wrong and you are correct, that would seem to be unlikely.  Especially given that they're looking at the mortality rate as being in the range of 1%, and you are calling it at 19%.

From all I have read, and I am no expert, the 1% seems far closer to right.  I too think that there are many with no or minor symptoms out there.

The only way to confirm that someone has COVID-19 is to test them. The number of confirmed cases is 1,118,844, as of April 4, 4 AM eastern daylight time (it's already gone up another 3000 in the next hour). Those cases are all people who tested positive for the virus, regardless of how sick they are. There are no cases who have tested positive but aren't part of this statistic. We don't know what the outcome of all these cases is yet. We DO know that 288,522 cases in the world have had an outcome. 59,236 have died (21%), and 229,286 have recovered (79%). That's a 21% death rate. And it's going up, not down. It just went up 2% from my post quoted above.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Right now in most places it takes something like 2 days to a week before test results are known, so the increasing number of cases is partly caused by reported new cases that had already existed for up to a week or so. 

I doubt that you can say that someone with no symptoms is sick with coronavirus, until (s)he gets sick, which (s)he probably will, but may not. As people get sick, they get tested, and then if they test positive for this virus, which something like 1/6 of them do, then they become part of the growing list of over a million cases in the world. When they do, they will recover, OR they will die. There's no in-between. 

Those who are carriers, but never get sick, can't be said to have COVID-19. You can't include them among the people who got sick, but recovered or died or who will do one or the other later. They might still infect others though. That's also a number to estimate if possible, and be cautious accordingly. 

"Being presymptomatic means you’ve been infected and don’t feel any symptoms at the time you get tested, but will develop them later on. In contrast, asymptomatic people never have any symptoms during the course of their infections at all.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ste...contagious

"an emerging body of data suggests that there are probably a significant number of infected people who don’t have symptoms but are likely to be transmitting the virus. Since they may not know that they’re sick, they may be taking fewer precautions than people with symptoms." Researchers still don’t know how common these cases are or how much they are driving the pandemic. On Monday, the director of the CDC told NPR that the number of asymptomatic individuals “may be as many as 25%.”
(same source as above)

They didn't say 25% of what. But 25% of total cases (including the asymptomatic ones) would be about 330,000 people worldwide. If this is correct, then in your area you can add about a third more to the total count of those who have the virus. But that 25%, if correct, is scarcely enough to bring down the death rate from 21% to 1%. The "experts" appear to be wrong.

Then add a significant number who have been tested, but whose results and not been reported. About 1/6 of them will test positive. They will then be added to the case number, and when they have an outcome, they will either recover or die; no in-between state exists.

"April 3, 2:50 p.m. The California Department of Public Health on Friday afternoon released new statistics on COVID-19 cases. ......As of Thursday, (in California), 94,800 tests have been conducted, though just 35,267 have yielded results. Another 59,500 — almost 63% — are still pending. Across the U.S., there have been 1.4 million tests across country with 266,000 testing positive." from:
https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/C...176803.php

There are people who are sick but haven't been tested yet, probably mostly in areas with poor health services. Once they ARE tested and counted though, they become part of the same trends that lead to the same outcome percentages: a 21% death rate so far.

Have I explained this well enough so people here can understand this yet?

[Bob Butler 54]

(04-01-2020, 03:57 AM)TheNomad Wrote: I know nothing until you reveal it, co-master of the forum.  At your feet, I remain until enlightened :\

"Leadership Talent".... is that like goals/rebound/assist stats?

In the context of S&H, it would be the ability to communicate the ideals. Washington, Lincoln. FDR. Churchill... Like that.

Not that a Nomad would connect to it.