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9/11 memories based on birthyear
#1
I've recently seen some discussions about 9/11 being the start of the 4T and people remembering it. What do you think about this take on it? These are just estimates, so please don't take this as gospel.

Born 1987 and earlier: Nearly all/all Americans, Canadians, and Western Europeans born during and before 1987 will have very vivid memories and know the political significance and impact of 9/11.

Born 1988-1990: Nearly all/all Americans, Canadians, and Western Europeans born in 1988-1990 will remember the event vividly, but they will perceive the political significance and impact of 9/11 with a middle schooler's point of view rather than that of a high schooler's.

Born 1991-1993: Most Americans, Canadians, and Western Europeans born in 1991-1993 will remember the event vividly, but it's unlikely for them to understand the effects that 9/11 had on American and world politics.

Born 1994-1996: Many Americans and Canadians will still remember the event, given that they were the last to be at elementary school when 9/11 happened. However, they most certainly won't understand the impact of 9/11 and at most may have seen it as "bad people did something bad to America". The only way how these people can get affected by 9/11 is if they had a family member that died during the event.

Born 1997-1999: It's unlikely for Americans and Canadians born during these years to remember 9/11. Even if they were to remember 9/11, their memories are most likely vague at best (probably not really the case for 1997, especially if they were born early that year and lived in an urban area). I get that adding 1999 (and possibly even late 1998) can be stretching it, but I've heard cases where people born then can remember 9/11 even though it's very rare. Many people born during these years may have memories from 2001, but most probably won't remember 9/11, especially if they lived outside of an American urban area.

Born 2000-2001: By this point it's impossible for people born in these years to remember 9/11. However, some may vaguely remember the changes that took place because of 9/11 in the few years after.

Born 2002 and later: Not alive when 9/11 happened.
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#2
(07-26-2020, 01:58 PM)Ghost Wrote: I've recently seen some discussions about 9/11 being the start of the 4T and people remembering it. What do you think about this take on it? These are just estimates, so please don't take this as gospel.

A crisis is sort of two things. It is a period where the prophet - nomad - civic generations fall into the active senior, middle and youth time frames. This period lasts roughly a generation, somewhat over 20 years.. It is defined more by the calendar than anything else.

The second I have called the crisis heart. It is set off by a trigger event. The crisis heart has in the Industrial Age typically taken four or so years to run its course. The trigger event makes the regeneracy inevitable. The crisis heart has taken about four years as it takes the US that long to mobilize, learn the weapons of the time, then push back the fighting lines to leave the other side into a hopeless situation.

September 11th was roughly when the configuration of generations began. It is a little to soon to achieve a consensus as to whether it was a little late or a little early. But an event does not cause a generational boundary. The calendar causes such a boundary.

It is also clear that September 11th was not a trigger. There are typically a bunch of catalyst events leading up to the trigger. September 11 could easily count as a catalyst. It did not, however, make a wide spread transition to the new values inevitable. Maybe if the war in Iraq and Afghanistan had been clean victories. Perhaps if superpowers becoming Neo colonial was accepted without an insurgency starting. If the conservatives in charge had proved that the new values they proposed were a good thing and the people of the USA had accepted them. If all these things had happened, September 11th could have become the first example of conservative values triumphing in a crisis.

But they did not. Insurgency has made attempts at colonialism in the Information Age a bad idea. An insurgency did develop. The ideas behind it came from the old values, and were not.likely to lead to an inevitable acceptance of the new values. The war in Iraq did not become a crisis heart.
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#3
(07-26-2020, 03:42 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(07-26-2020, 01:58 PM)Ghost Wrote: I've recently seen some discussions about 9/11 being the start of the 4T and people remembering it. What do you think about this take on it? These are just estimates, so please don't take this as gospel.

A crisis is sort of two things.  It is a period where the prophet - nomad - civic generations fall into the active senior, middle and youth time frames.  This period lasts roughly a generation, somewhat over 20 years..  It is defined more by the calendar than anything else.

The second I have called the crisis heart.  It is set off by a trigger event.  The crisis heart has in the Industrial Age typically taken four or so years to run its course.  The trigger event makes the regeneracy inevitable.  The crisis heart has taken about four years as it takes the US that long to mobilize, learn the weapons of the time, then push back the fighting lines to leave the other side into a hopeless situation.

September 11th was roughly when the configuration of generations began.  It is a little to soon to achieve a consensus as to whether it was a little late or a little early.  But an event does not cause a generational boundary.  The calendar causes such a boundary.

It is also clear that September 11th was not a trigger.  There are typically a bunch of catalyst events leading up to the trigger.  September 11 could easily count as a catalyst.  It did not, however, make a wide spread transition to the new values inevitable.  Maybe if the war in Iraq and Afghanistan had been clean victories.  Perhaps if superpowers becoming Neo colonial was accepted without an insurgency starting.  If the conservatives in charge had proved that the new values they proposed were a good thing and the people of the USA had accepted them.  If all these things had happened, September 11th could have become the first example of conservative values triumphing in a crisis.

But they did not.  Insurgency has made attempts at colonialism in the Information Age a bad idea.  An insurgency did develop.  The ideas behind it came from the old values, and were not.likely to lead to an inevitable acceptance of the new values.  The war in Iraq did not become a crisis heart.

I think even events like the Oklahoma City bombing (1995) and the Columbine school shooting (1999) were catalysts (from a domestic POV) to this 4T, as they both arguably made children more sheltered, led to tighter security, and made people more aware of domestic terrorism.
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#4
(07-26-2020, 04:55 PM)Ghost Wrote: I think even events like the Oklahoma City bombing (1995) and the Columbine school shooting (1999) were catalysts (from a domestic POV) to this 4T, as they both arguably made children more sheltered, led to tighter security, and made people more aware of domestic terrorism.

No argument from me. If you are making a list, you might add Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
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#5
(07-26-2020, 05:19 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(07-26-2020, 04:55 PM)Ghost Wrote: I think even events like the Oklahoma City bombing (1995) and the Columbine school shooting (1999) were catalysts (from a domestic POV) to this 4T, as they both arguably made children more sheltered, led to tighter security, and made people more aware of domestic terrorism.

No argument from me.  If you are making a list, you might add Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

COVID-19 will cause more disruption in personal lives. Figure that long-term closures of schools for K-12 students are without precedent before 2020... but they have happened. This will likely divide the Millennial generation from the one that follows them.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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