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Has the regeneracy arrived?
(01-25-2017, 07:49 AM)SomeGuy Wrote:
(01-24-2017, 10:19 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(01-24-2017, 07:30 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: The majority of Taiwanese don't even identify as Chinese anymore.

I find that hard to believe.  Do you have a reference?  Even the Taiwanese language is dying if not dead.

There are multiple "Taiwanese" languages: various aboriginal languages, the Hakka and other dialects brought over by the first (Southern) Chinese settlers in the early Modern period, and then the huge influx of Mandarin speakers after the Civil War.  But yeah, largely Mandarin, at least formally.

The references for the shift in identification from "Chinese" to "Taiwanese" are here.  It's more like the shift in colonists' attitudes from being "British" to being "American" even though they still spoke the same language.

So we're talking more about political identification than cultural identification.  I can see that.

Your survey says "18 percent of respondents said they would like to see the “status quo” maintained in cross-strait relations, while 5.9 percent said they would prefer an immediate declaration of independence ... respondents supporting unification with China dropped to 9.2 percent".  That leaves a heck of a lot of undecideds, and more supporting reunification than independence.

While I don't think "an offer they can't refuse" would go over well, it might be possible for China to reach an agreement that allowed Taiwan to retain their military.  Of course, everyone except Trump is pretty happy with the status quo as well.

If everyone acted rationally, the US would agree to return to the "one China" policy, China would abandon their artificial islands, and the US would acquiesce in China's commercial agreements to develop oil sources in the South China Sea.  The problem is whether the politicians could sell this as a victory to their respective supporters on both sides.

Militarily, what's enforceable is for the US to start basing in Taiwan and for China to control the South China Sea through artificial islands.  That would be a worse result for both sides, since Taiwan would become a realistic existential threat to China, and Chinese control of the South China Sea would become an existential threat to the US control of the global maritime trade regime.  That result is ripe for escalating missteps.  Unfortunately, given it's a crisis period, maybe that result is also the most likely result.
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(01-25-2017, 11:11 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(01-25-2017, 07:49 AM)SomeGuy Wrote:
(01-24-2017, 10:19 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(01-24-2017, 07:30 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: The majority of Taiwanese don't even identify as Chinese anymore.

I find that hard to believe.  Do you have a reference?  Even the Taiwanese language is dying if not dead.

There are multiple "Taiwanese" languages: various aboriginal languages, the Hakka and other dialects brought over by the first (Southern) Chinese settlers in the early Modern period, and then the huge influx of Mandarin speakers after the Civil War.  But yeah, largely Mandarin, at least formally.

The references for the shift in identification from "Chinese" to "Taiwanese" are here.  It's more like the shift in colonists' attitudes from being "British" to being "American" even though they still spoke the same language.

So we're talking more about political identification than cultural identification.  I can see that.

Your survey says "18 percent of respondents said they would like to see the “status quo” maintained in cross-strait relations, while 5.9 percent said they would prefer an immediate declaration of independence ... respondents supporting unification with China dropped to 9.2 percent".  That leaves a heck of a lot of undecideds, and more supporting reunification than independence.

While I don't think "an offer they can't refuse" would go over well, it might be possible for China to reach an agreement that allowed Taiwan to retain their military.  Of course, everyone except Trump is pretty happy with the status quo as well.

If everyone acted rationally, the US would agree to return to the "one China" policy, China would abandon their artificial islands, and the US would acquiesce in China's commercial agreements to develop oil sources in the South China Sea.  The problem is whether the politicians could sell this as a victory to their respective supporters on both sides.

Militarily, what's enforceable is for the US to start basing in Taiwan and for China to control the South China Sea through artificial islands.  That would be a worse result for both sides, since Taiwan would become a realistic existential threat to China, and Chinese control of the South China Sea would become an existential threat to the US control of the global maritime trade regime.  That result is ripe for escalating missteps.  Unfortunately, given it's a crisis period, maybe that result is also the most likely result.

Exactly.
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(01-24-2017, 01:11 PM)Mikebert Wrote:
(01-24-2017, 12:28 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Personally, I would rather the US abandon its efforts at hegemony, cut what deals it needs to preserve its most important geopolitical interests, maintain a military for defensive purposes only, and focus on rebuilding its infrastructure and industry, but I am not sure that there is enough political support for all of that in Congress.  We may have to muddle through a while longer.

So do I.  And if we get that then your view of how this 4T plays out will come true.  But your basic M&T cycle calls for the macrodecision phase to end around 2050, so this would be early.

To most Americans, it's our world to use as we please ... until it actually costs us something to 'use'.  Trumps is playing with fire, because that's just how he operates.  The Congress seems to be OK with him beating his chest, as long as they get the things they want.  In short: a muddle.  The neoliberals that are dominant in Congress only want tax cuts and reduce spending (on things they hate, at least).  Trump wants to be seen as the fixer who did it all.  This could resolve into a step back from the world ... or not.  It seems more likely that we will piss off a lot of friends, and make enemies of adversaries, but avoid an outright war.  The economy will do well for a while, then it may crash. 

We're in uncharted waters here.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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(01-24-2017, 08:31 PM)Marypoza Wrote: -- progressive?? progressive??!!!!!!!??   :Rofl:

Omfg Eric you're funny 

This left wing blogger sez it alot better than l ever could so l'll let her take it from here:

http://www.newslogue.com/debate/300

This read like a massive tantrum.  Sorry, but actually having goals is really important ... as she noted herself.  She has none either.  Neither do others claiming to be beacons in the dark.  In short, the left is effectively self-neutered, and not getting any better at the moment.  I hope that changes while I'm still around to see it, but so far, nada.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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(01-25-2017, 12:46 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(01-24-2017, 08:31 PM)Marypoza Wrote: -- progressive?? progressive??!!!!!!!??   :Rofl:

Omfg Eric you're funny 

This left wing blogger sez it alot better than l ever could so l'll let her take it from here:

http://www.newslogue.com/debate/300

This read like a massive tantrum.  Sorry, but actually having goals is really important ... as she noted herself.  She has none either.  Neither do others claiming to be beacons in the dark.  In short, the left is effectively self-neutered, and not getting any better at the moment.  I hope that changes while I'm still around to see it, but so far, nada.

I agree, the left is quite frequently absolutely useless.  Tongue
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(01-25-2017, 12:52 PM)SomeGuy Wrote:
(01-25-2017, 12:46 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(01-24-2017, 08:31 PM)Marypoza Wrote: -- progressive?? progressive??!!!!!!!??   :Rofl:

Omfg Eric you're funny 

This left wing blogger sez it alot better than l ever could so l'll let her take it from here:

http://www.newslogue.com/debate/300

This read like a massive tantrum.  Sorry, but actually having goals is really important ... as she noted herself.  She has none either.  Neither do others claiming to be beacons in the dark.  In short, the left is effectively self-neutered, and not getting any better at the moment.  I hope that changes while I'm still around to see it, but so far, nada.

I agree, the left is quite frequently absolutely useless Tongue

-- l would say she's venting,  but yeah..... l also think that's her point. She's venting @  the Dem leadership, you know, the ppl that are supposed to be setting the goals but are instead on a barge floating down a certain river in Egypt (& probably eating grapes too!) But more to the point, Eric was bitching bcuz l (accidentally) linked him to a right wing blogger so l linked him to one from the left Big Grin
Heart  Bernie/Tulsi 2020    Heart
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