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Has the regeneracy arrived?
#61
(08-06-2016, 10:34 PM)radind Wrote:
(08-06-2016, 02:00 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I suspect we'll need to compare notes after 2028.

I don't think it will take that long, perhaps 2024

I'm the prophet; take note!

Quote:(mikebert)

Thus, there is no template you can compare the next 4 or 8 years to that will work any better than it has in the last 8. It is entirely possible that the regeneracy is long past with the climax nearing and the 1T within five years now, all of which will be crystal-clear in hindsight, but completely invisible to us now.

No doubt about that, except to my "crystal" ball of course; but also I have little doubt that it will take longer. I am as sure about that as I am about any prediction I could make, or have made, even though many of my predictions have come true. In this case, of course, I am in agreement with that other great prophet, Neil Howe.

I predict also that there will be much more change in the 2020s than in the 2010s. The year 2022 will be especially progressive and productive. I have no doubt that the changes will not be favorable to the current Republican doctrines, although Democrats and liberals might not get all they might want either, and not all the possible changes will happen. Americans are only willing to go so far at any one time; (we) are a cautious people and seem to tolerate endless delays and reversals.

Millennials seem divided on the abortion question, which is what concerns Mr. Radind. So I can't really predict total defeat for the anti-abortion forces. But it is an issue that is being relegated to the back burner, relatively speaking, and as I say, the abortion pill could take it off the table, IF people decide that resolving problems is more important than having battles.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#62
(08-11-2016, 02:54 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: How does recorded sound become irrelevant?

Recorded sound in such formats as tapes and CDs become unnecessary as personal possessions (barring some copyright Gestapo). Oddly, vinyl discs seem to be making a comeback.

Recorded sound will not die. How else could one hear Schnabel on the piano, Oistrakh on the violin, or Rostropovich on the cello? Or for that matter the great singing voices of Maria Callas and Sarah Vaughn? Or Pete Fountain on the clarinet? Lionel Hampton on the marimba?

We will not need the playback intermediates of the disc or tape. Someone else might hold them in a library function.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#63
(08-11-2016, 09:43 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(08-11-2016, 02:54 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: How does recorded sound become irrelevant?

Recorded sound in such formats as tapes and CDs become unnecessary as personal possessions (barring some copyright Gestapo). Oddly, vinyl discs seem to be making a comeback.

Recorded sound will not die. How else could one hear Schnabel on the piano, Oistrakh on the violin, or Rostropovich on the cello? Or for that matter the great singing voices of Maria Callas and Sarah Vaughn? Or Pete Fountain on the clarinet? Lionel Hampton on the marimba?

We will not need the playback intermediates of the disc or tape. Someone else might hold them in a library function.

Digital smart phones and computer speakers can't readily replace stereo hi fidelity, can they?
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#64
(08-15-2016, 10:11 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(08-11-2016, 09:43 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(08-11-2016, 02:54 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: How does recorded sound become irrelevant?

Recorded sound in such formats as tapes and CDs become unnecessary as personal possessions (barring some copyright Gestapo). Oddly, vinyl discs seem to be making a comeback.

Recorded sound will not die. How else could one hear Schnabel on the piano, Oistrakh on the violin, or Rostropovich on the cello? Or for that matter the great singing voices of Maria Callas and Sarah Vaughn? Or Pete Fountain on the clarinet? Lionel Hampton on the marimba?

We will not need the playback intermediates of the disc or tape. Someone else might hold them in a library function.

Digital smart phones and computer speakers can't readily replace stereo hi fidelity, can they?

Smart phones and computer speakers are not high-fidelity devices. A reader is apparently OK. People will want high fidelity back. We Boomers know. We used to spend as much as the cost of a four-year-old used car for stereo equipment. Few people do that now. It could be smaller living spaces and neighbors who hate hearing Led Zeppelin or Schubert's Octet. 

I am not convinced that after 100 playings that vinyl disks are as good as a compact disc. You will fall asleep without putting the disc back in its jacket. I thought that CDs were as good as vinyl discs at the outset, but that they were less likely to warp, stretch and unstretch with temperature fluxes, and, of course get subjected to dust and worn needles.

I dedicated a reader to my stereo system almost exclusively for getting music off YouTube. But I have yet to dispose of my compact disks. I have some fear of a copyright Gestapo cracking down on us (Make sure that you have paid $50 to listen to that piece of music or we will attach your bank account or garnishee your wages). Remember: I have good cause to not assume the best behavior of capitalists and their flunkies.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#65
I suggest that we move the discussion on reproduction of music on household hi-fi and its surrogates to a new Forum in "Technology".
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#66
I think we started the regeneracy last summer with the legalization of same sex marriage and the whole scandal with the Confederate flag. Ever since then, it seems like social issues have been put on the back burner.

I think that a lot of people compare this 4T to the last one because of the parallels seen with the 2010s so far and the 1930s. Both 4Ts started off the same.
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#67
(08-17-2016, 10:48 AM)FLBones Wrote: I think we started the regeneracy last summer with the legalization of same sex marriage and the whole scandal with the Confederate flag. Ever since then, it seems like social issues have been put on the back burner.

I think that a lot of people compare this 4T to the last one because of the parallels seen with the 2010s so far and the 1930s. Both 4Ts started off the same.

Possible explanation. The controversy about same-sex marriage practically died with the USSC  decision. The politicians don't bring it up. Gays and lesbians chose to go mainstream and succeeded.

It's surprising that I see Confederate flags here in southern Michigan... and the people flying them are apparently not re-enactors. Needless to say I saw some in the presence of a Trump for President sign...
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#68
(08-17-2016, 10:48 AM)FLBones Wrote: I think we started the regeneracy last summer with the legalization of same sex marriage and the whole scandal with the Confederate flag. Ever since then, it seems like social issues have been put on the back burner.

Really?  It seems to me that we are still all too-much about the social issues, with the defeat of Bernie Sanders, and the Trump campaign's emphasis on law and order (a social issue), immigration (research shows anti-immigrant feelings are not primarily economic, but more about nationalism, a social issue) terrorism (fear of scary others, is again a social issue) and so on.  The only economic issues are trade on the Right and min wage on the Left and you hardly hear anything on these since the general election campaign began after Labor Day.
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#69
I'm getting a kind of Regeneracy feeling from the response to Trump's endorsement of sexual assault by celebrities. That's being so roundly condemned that it's breaking down partisan divides.
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#70
(10-08-2016, 04:56 PM)Einzige Wrote: I'm getting a kind of Regeneracy feeling from the response to Trump's endorsement of sexual assault by celebrities. That's being so roundly condemned that it's breaking down partisan divides.

I was going through ultra-conservative northeastern rural Indiana last week and I saw so many Trump/Pence yard signs that if I did not know that this area  was not where the bulk of Americans live, that Trump was going to win in a landslide. Today I saw far fewer of them in much the same area.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#71
(10-09-2016, 03:49 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(10-08-2016, 04:56 PM)Einzige Wrote: I'm getting a kind of Regeneracy feeling from the response to Trump's endorsement of sexual assault by celebrities. That's being so roundly condemned that it's breaking down partisan divides.

I was going through ultra-conservative northeastern rural Indiana last week and I saw so many Trump/Pence yard signs that if I did not know that this area  was not where the bulk of Americans live, that Trump was going to win in a landslide. Today I saw far fewer of them in much the same area.

Where I live, the ratio of Trump/Pence to Hillary signs is roughly 50:1.  In fact, the only large Hillary signs I've seen are located on the property of one couple, who sold their founding interest in Waste Management and retired large.  Trump/Pence signs are all large.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#72
I see more Trump signs than Clinton signs here in Massachusetts. I don't think there are going to be more Trump voters. Rather, I think the Trump supporters are enthusiastic, while the Clinton "supporters" are reluctant. But their votes still both count the same.
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#73
(10-10-2016, 03:16 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: I see more Trump signs than Clinton signs here in Massachusetts.  I don't think there are going to be more Trump voters.  Rather, I think the Trump supporters are enthusiastic, while the Clinton "supporters" are reluctant.  But their votes still both count the same.

I'm in a semi-rural area, with a large lake and several thousand retirees.  The locals are all Trump, and most of the retirees are too.  This, and other similar areas, will be Trump strongholds, and the cities will be not-Trump of one flavor or another.  Northern Virginia will vote for Hillary, but other places are still questionable.  I don't think this is nearly as lopsided as the polls, and the press, seem to think.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#74
(10-10-2016, 04:16 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(10-10-2016, 03:16 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: I see more Trump signs than Clinton signs here in Massachusetts.  I don't think there are going to be more Trump voters.  Rather, I think the Trump supporters are enthusiastic, while the Clinton "supporters" are reluctant.  But their votes still both count the same.

I'm in a semi-rural area, with a large lake and several thousand retirees.  The locals are all Trump, and most of the retirees are too.  This, and other similar areas, will be Trump strongholds, and the cities will be not-Trump of one flavor or another.  Northern Virginia will vote for Hillary, but other places are still questionable.  I don't think this is nearly as lopsided as the polls, and the press, seem to think.

I'm in Somerville, MA, which is a People's Republic of Cambridge wannabe - we share a long border with Cambridge.  The lawn signs here just mean that lawn signs aren't representative of how the area will vote.

But I'm not saying I'm seeing a huge number of Trump signs here.  Rather, I'm just seeing zero signs of enthusiasm for Clinton.
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#75
The Trump campaign has been far more generous with yard signs than the Clinton campaign. I often see yards with two or three Trump yard signs.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#76
(10-10-2016, 10:14 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:
(10-10-2016, 08:34 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: The Trump campaign has been far more generous with yard signs than the Clinton campaign.  I often see yards with two or three Trump yard signs.

Well Trump and Company sure understand marketing swag. I've used some of their postage paid contribution solicitation envelopes to send some "love notes."

Bart

What ya send 'em ?   Bricks or lead ingots?
---Value Added Cool
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#77
(10-10-2016, 03:05 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(10-09-2016, 03:49 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(10-08-2016, 04:56 PM)Einzige Wrote: I'm getting a kind of Regeneracy feeling from the response to Trump's endorsement of sexual assault by celebrities. That's being so roundly condemned that it's breaking down partisan divides.

I was going through ultra-conservative northeastern rural Indiana last week and I saw so many Trump/Pence yard signs that if I did not know that this area  was not where the bulk of Americans live, that Trump was going to win in a landslide. Today I saw far fewer of them in much the same area.

Where I live, the ratio of Trump/Pence to Hillary signs is roughly 50:1.  In fact, the only large Hillary signs I've seen are located on the property of one couple, who sold their founding interest in Waste Management and retired large.  Trump/Pence signs are all large.

I have seen a couple Johnson/Weld signs but I have not seen a single Trump sign here in Fargo. Lot of signs supporting Republicans in other races, but not Trump. Trump's offensive crudity does not help him up here.
#MakeTheDemocratsGreatAgain
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#78
One tip-off for a Trump collapse will be that those yard signs disappear. Burning barrels or recycling?
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#79
(10-10-2016, 10:14 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:
(10-10-2016, 08:34 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: The Trump campaign has been far more generous with yard signs than the Clinton campaign.  I often see yards with two or three Trump yard signs.

Well Trump and Company sure understand marketing swag. I've used some of their postage paid contribution solicitation envelopes to send some "love notes."

Bart

And some temp has to open those envelopes and throw away/shred whatever's in them.  I know because I was such a temp once (for a bank).  You wouldn't believe the kind of garbage people would send back.
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#80
On the subject of a Regeneracy, it's probably important to bear in mind that, if there's something to the Megacycle theory and we're in the closing years of a Megaunraveling (with 1789-1865/76 as a Megahigh and 1865/76-1945 as a Megaawakening), there may not be a big Regeneracy this time. The Unraveling exists in opposite and inverted proportion to the High, at a time of "falling demand for social order". My bet is that the Crises of Megaunravelings see the weakest Regeneracies and the Crises of Megaawakenings the strongest Regeneracies.

Doesn't mean there won't be one, but that it may be so subtle that we'll be arguing about whether it actually happened for a long time. Hell, it may have already happened.

That probably means whoever's unlucky enough to live eighty years from now will find themselves with a jackboot on the back of their neck.

(Conversely, the Crises of Megaunravelings may be the mildest Crises of any of the cycle - it's pretty obvious that nothing we've faced in the last decade has come close to those faced by people in the late eighteenth century or the middle nineteenth century or the thirties and forties of the last century - and the Highs of Megaunravelings the most stable and orderly Highs, with a peak but falling demand for order. That is, the "American High" of the fifties and early sixties might be the most obvious High for centuries to come.)

In other words, in order of their intensity:

First Turnings:
Megaunraveling (Most stable - high supply of social order, falling demand)
Megahigh
Megaawakening
Megacrisis (Least stable - Rising demand for social order, lowest supply)

Second Turning:
Megacrisis (Most intense - Rising demand and supply of social order)
Megaunraveling
Megahigh
Megaawakening (Least intense - Falling demand and supply of social order)

Third Turning:
Megaawakening (Most stable - Falling demand and supply of social order)
Megacrisis
Megaunraveling
Megahigh (Least stable - Falling supply of social order, highest demand)

Fourth Turning:
Megahigh (Most intense - Lowest supply of social order, highest demand)
Megaawakening
Megacrisis
Megaunraveling (Least intense - highest supply and demand of social order)

The most stable Highs are in a Megaunraveling (1945-64), the least stable Highs are in a Megacrisis (starting in the late 2020s or early 2030s), the most intense Awakenings are in a Megacrisis (the 2040s?), the least intense Awakenings are in a Megaawakening (~1896-~1912), the most stable Unravelings are in a Megaawakening (1912 or thereabouts to 1929), the least stable Unravelings are in a Megahigh (the late 1840s and 1850s), the most intense Crises are in a Megahigh (the Civil War), and the least intense Crises are, ironically, in a Megacrisis (by which time social cohesion will be through the roof owing to the turmoils of prior decades - think of the genteel warfare of the Revolutionary and Napoleonic eras) and Megaunraveling (does the current era seem really existentially urgent in an immediate sense?).
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