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  #RepealThe19th
Posted by: Einzige - 10-13-2016, 07:45 PM - Forum: General Political Discussion - Replies (13)

Some Trump supporters want to repeal the 19the Amendment to the Constitution - the one that gave women the right to vote.

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37639738

Quote:Calls for women to be denied their right to vote have trended on Twitter as polls suggested Donald Trump would win if only men could cast ballots in next month's White House election.

The Republican nominee's supporters were accused of tweeting #repealthe19th - a reference to the US constitutional amendment granting women's suffrage less than 100 years ago.

The hashtag went viral after polls suggested Mr Trump would win election if only men cast ballots.

Mr Trump has struggled to win over female voters, especially since a recent tape emerged of his sexually aggressive boasts.

The hashtag began trending after FiveThirtyEight, a political number-crunching blog, tweeted two polls which showed what the outcome of the presidential election would be if only women voted, and if only men voted.

He found that if the election only counted the female vote, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton would win the presidency with 458 electoral votes and Mr Trump a meagre 80.

If only men voted in the presidential election, Mr Trump would win the election with 350 electoral votes and Mrs Clinton only 188.

A candidate must win 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.

Some of the tweets calling for a woman's right to vote to be repealed seemed in earnest.

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  Bob Dylan wins Nobel Prize for literature. Bravo!
Posted by: Eric the Green - 10-13-2016, 01:24 PM - Forum: Society and Culture - Replies (12)

How Does It Feel? Bob Dylan Wins the Nobel in Literature
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESSOCT. 13, 2016, 12:10 P.M. E.D.T.
Continue reading the main story


STOCKHOLM — Bob Dylan won the Nobel Prize in literature Thursday for expanding the poetic possibilities of music with a body of work that includes "Like a Rolling Stone," ''Blowin' in the Wind" and "Mr. Tambourine Man" — a stunning announcement that marked the first time the award has gone to a musician.

Reporters and others who had gathered at the Swedish Academy's headquarters reacted with a loud cheer as the name of the singer and songwriter was read out.

Dylan, 75, is widely regarded as the most influential poet-musician of his generation.

His protest songs such as "Blowin' in the Wind" and "The Times They Are A-Changin'" became anthems for the U.S. anti-war and civil rights movements of the 1960s. His densely poetic and image-rich "Mr. Tambourine Man" helped usher in the folk-rock movement. And his 1965 "Like a Rolling Stone," about a rich and pampered young woman forced to fend for herself, was pronounced the greatest song of all time by Rolling Stone magazine.

Dylan is the first American winner of the Nobel literature prize since Toni Morrison in 1993.

The academy commended him for "having created new poetic expressions within the great American song tradition."

Dylan rarely gives interviews, and a representative said the musician had no immediate comment. He is on tour and was scheduled to play in Las Vegas on Thursday night.

The announcement angered some literary figures but seemed to please far more.

Dylan's impact on popular culture has been immense, his influence as a lyricist extending to nearly every major music figure and songwriter of the last 50 years, from the Beatles to Bruce Springsteen, Bono, Ed Sheeran and beyond.

Generally described as a rock musician, Dylan has employed numerous musical styles, including country, gospel, blues, folk and pop. He pursued them all, sometimes separately and other times simultaneously, sometimes baffling and even angering his fans.

His songs can be snarling and accusatory ("Idiot Wind," ''Positively 4th Street"); apocalyptic ("A Hard Rain's A-Gonna Fall"); dense and hallucinatory ("Desolation Row"); tender and wistful ("Visions of Johanna"); bracingly political ("Hurricane" and "Only a Pawn in their Game"); and enigmatic and absurdist ("Stuck Inside of Mobile With the Memphis Blues Again").

Some of his songs are studded with historical, literary or political references (Jack the Ripper, Captain Ahab, Shakespeare, Paul Revere, T.S. Eliot and Fidel Castro) and laced with sly humor. ("Highway 61 Revisited" opens with the line, "Oh, God said to Abraham, 'Kill me a son.' Abe said, 'Man, you must be puttin' me on.'" "Blowin' in the Wind" captured the hopes of the '60s civil rights movement, yet sounded as if it had been handed down through the oral tradition from another century, with lines like: "How many times must the cannon balls fly before they're forever banned?".........

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  Vote Trump or die, says Russia.
Posted by: Einzige - 10-12-2016, 09:03 PM - Forum: General Political Discussion - Replies (3)

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-12/putin-ally-warns-americans-vote-trump-or-face-nuclear-war

The name of what is arguably Russia's most flamboyant, ultra-nationalist politician, and according to some the local incarnation of Donald Trump, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, a deputy in the state Duma and leader of the nationalist LDPR party, is familiar to frequent readers: he most recently made an appearance on these pages two months ago, when he warned Germany that it risks utter destruction if it continued on its present track of operating Bundeswehr forces in the Baltics. Zhirinovsky also shares another feature with Donald Trump: both are outspoken to a fault. Which is why we were not surprised to read that asReuters reported earlier, Zhirinovsky urged Americans to vote for Donald Trump as president or "risk being dragged into a nuclear war

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  Anti-Fascism as a Unifying Force
Posted by: X_4AD_84 - 10-11-2016, 11:45 AM - Forum: General Political Discussion - Replies (10)

The following article has helped me to further crystallize some ideas I've had brewing:

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2...ews-214314


I have a hope. My hope is that there will arise a Millennial dominated, new, anti-Fascist force. It will be a private-public partnership. It will proactively root out Fascists, Nazis, and all other strains of anti-American, anti-Democratic, anti-Humanistic totalitarianism. It will lead to a healthier HUAC. HUAC 2.0.

This HUAC will not prosecute mere notions and will not encroach on the 1st Amendment. However, it will, with extreme efficiency, root out actual plotters, perpetrators and traitors, who plan the destruction of all we hold dear.

I believe that the presence of war veterans among this new force will provide an aspect that was missing from anti-Fascist forces who tried but failed to stop the totalitarian monsters of the 20th Century. A robust, confident force, backed at times by appropriate security apparatus and weaponry, which can credibly smoke out, apprehend, and, deter, those who wish destruction upon liberal, Western, developed society, be they domestic or foreign.

This is my call to arms.

Exclamation

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  Pensions - Public and Private
Posted by: Ragnarök_62 - 10-10-2016, 06:19 PM - Forum: Economics - Replies (5)

Zerohedge Wrote:A new research note from Moody's found that State pension funds were underfunded by $1.3 trillion at the end of FY15 but was expected to grow to $1.8 trillion at the end of FY17 as pensions continue to struggle with low returns.  We've discussed the unintended consequences of the Central Bank's low-rate polices on pension funds multiples times (see "Pension Duration Dilemma - Why Pension Funds Are Driving The Biggest Bond Bubble In History")...with the two most likely outcomes being benefits cuts for pensioners and/or crippling tax hikes for citizens.
Quote:Total US state aggregate adjusted net pension liabilities (ANPL) totaled $1.25 trillion, or 119% of revenue in fiscal 2015, Moody's Investors Service says in a new report. The results, based on compliance with new GASB 68 accounting rules, set a new ANPL baseline and are poised to rise for the next two fiscal years as market returns fall below annual targets.
 
"The median return for public pension plans in FY 2016 was 0.52% compared to an average assumed investment return of 7.5%," Moody's Vice President -- Senior Credit Officer Marcia Van Wagner says. "We project that aggregate state ANPL will grow to $1.75 trillion in FY 2017 audits."
 
The states with the highest pension burdens -- measured as the largest three-year average ANPL as a percent of state governmental revenue -- were consistent with previous years. Illinois topped the list with pension liabilities at 280% of total governmental revenue, followed by Connecticut (Aa3 negative) at 209%, Alaska (Aa2 negative) at 179%, Kentucky at 162%, and New Jersey at 157%.
Given that pretty much every state pension is now underfunded, Moody's introduced a new metric which they referred to as the "Tread Water" benchmark.  The largest underfunded plans in Kentucky, Illinois and New Jersey would require an incremental 7 - 7.5% of annual state revenue for contributions in order to simply stop unfunded liabilities from growing further.
Quote:Moody's new report also introduces a new "Tread Water" benchmark, which measures whether states' annual contributions to their pensions are enough to keep the unfunded net liability from growing. For FY 2015, states were evenly divided between falling short and exceeding the benchmark.
 
The report "States -- US: Medians - Low Returns, Weak Contributions Drive Continued Growth of State Pension Liabilities," says there were several states whose pension contributions were notably below the Tread Water mark, including Kentucky (Aa2 stable), New Jersey (A2 negative), Illinois (Baa2 negative), and Texas (Aaa stable).
 
To tread water, Kentucky would have had to contribute an additional 7.5% of revenue to its pension plans; the figure for Illinois is 6.8% of revenue and 6.9% for New Jersey. A tread water contribution plus debt service and retiree health care costs would result in total fixed costs of 33.5% for fiscally stressed Illinois and almost 31% of revenues for Connecticut.
Meanwhile, the CATO Institute points out that wages and benefits for state employees totaled $1.4 trillion in 2015 or 53% of total state and local spending.  Moreover, the report highlights that retirement benefits for state and local workers are substantially higher than the private sector at roughly $4.80 per hour compared to $1.23 per hour for private-sector workers. 
Quote:The largest component of state and local government spending is compensation for 16 million employees.  Total wages and benefits for state and local workers was $1.4 trillion in 2015, which accounted for 53 percent of all state and local spending.
 
State and local workers typically receive more generous benefit packages than do private-sector workers.  On average, retirement benefits for state and local workers cost $4.80 per hour, compared to $1.23 per hour for  private-sector workers. Insurance benefits (mainly  health  insurance)  for state  and  local  workers cost $5.43 per hour, compared to $2.59 per hour for the private sector.  Most state and local workers receive retirement health benefits, whereas most private-sector workers do not.
 
The costs of government pension and retirement health benefits are expected to rise rapidly in coming years.  Governments have promised their  workers generous retirement benefits, but most states have not put enough money aside to pay for them.  As a consequence, state and local governments will either have to cut benefits in coming years or impose higher taxes. 
Per the following chart, many states have racked up over $20,000 of liabilities per capita, a level from which it will be very difficult to recover absent benefit cuts, massive tax hikes and/or a federal bailout.


[Image: 2016.10.10%20-%20Debt%2C%20Pension%2C%20Opeb.jpg]

[Image: 2016.10.10%20-%20Pension.jpg]

Zerohedge Wrote:But, as the CATO Institute points out, the pension crisis is likely much worse than what most auditor reports would suggest because discount rates of 7.4% are unreasonably high.  CATO estimates that reducing the discount rate from 7.4% to 2.7% would increase state pension underfunded liabilities from $1.2 trillion to $3.4 trillion. 
Quote:Pension shortfalls are actually larger than these figures indicate.  Those are the officially reported figures, but financial experts think that the discount rates used to report pension liabilities are too high.  Higher discount rates reduce reported liabilities and create an overly optimistic picture of pension plan health.
 
In his study, Rauh recalculated pension plan funding using a 2.7 percent discount rate, rather than the official average rate of 7.4 percent.  His    recalculated  unfunded  liability jumps from $1.2 trillion to $3.4 trillion.  Similarly, Munnell and Aubry found that their unfunded pension liabilities  jumped to $4.1 trillion if plans are estimated using a 4 percent discount rate.  Under that assumption, the funding level of state and local pension plans averages just 45 percent.
Unfortunately, the pension ponzi becomes more and more unsustainable each year with funds simply borrowing from future benefit payments, which are almost certainly impaired in many states, while paying current benefit recipients in full.  While these types of "kick the can down the road" games can be played for a long time, eventually the massive underfundings will have to be addressed...and that will not be a pretty day.

Rags blames QE for a lot of this because QE fucks up returns on bonds and causes "risk on" behavior. Cool   Rags hates QE because it fucks with his IRA returns.  Hopefully folks in large voting block states like California and Illinois will see the light and conclude QE is fucking up their IRA's and their state finances.

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  [split] Prominent Republicans call for Donald Trump to drop out of the nomination
Posted by: Bronsin - 10-09-2016, 08:45 PM - Forum: The Graveyard - Replies (16)

I swear to GOD he is throwing this election on purpose. NOBODY that successful in life and business can be that fkn stupid all the time in the media. Of course all the dried up old hags are lining up to be "offended" by his remarks.

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  What will happen if someone lives by 3T values in the 1T?
Posted by: disasterzone - 10-08-2016, 04:00 PM - Forum: General Discussion - Replies (65)

And does what people in the 3T do?

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  Prominent Republicans call for Donald Trump to drop out of the nomination
Posted by: pbrower2a - 10-07-2016, 08:54 PM - Forum: General Political Discussion - Replies (7)

Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman ® on Friday called on GOP nominee Donald Trump to drop out of the presidential race after The Washington Post published an explicit recording from 2005 in which the New York businessman speaks about women in lewd and derogatory terms.

In a conversation with then-”Access Hollywood” host Billy Bush, Trump claimed he tried to have sex with a married woman and could grab women “by the pussy” because he was a celebrity.
Responding to the tape, Huntsman said it was time for Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, Trump’s vice presidential running mate, to assume the GOP nomination.

“In a campaign cycle that has been nothing but a race to the bottom — at such a critical moment for our nation — and with so many who have tried to be respectful of a record primary vote, the time has come for Governor Pence to lead the ticket,” Huntsman told The Salt Lake Tribune.

Pence, however, dodged repeated questions about Trump’s comments at a campaign rally in Ohio on Friday night.
Huntsman, who ran for president in 2012, said last week he was planning on voting for Trump even though the two men disagree on a “range of issues.”

Sen. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.), a vulnerable Republican facing re-election this year who has already said he would not vote for Trump in November, also called on Trump to drop out Friday night.

A few other Republicans followed suit. A.J. Spiker, a former chairman of the Iowa Republican Party who was previously critical of Trump, echoed the call for Trump to resign and called him “unfit for public office.”

So too did former Labor Secretary Linda Chavez, who served in the George W. Bush administration. In an interview with MSNBC, Chavez, who also served under Ronald Reagan, called Trump’s remarks “vile.”

Garrett Jackson, a former aide to 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney, also called on Mike Pence to assume the nomination, tweeting that “any decent human can beat Clinton.”

GOP strategist and Trump critic Ana Navarro joined the chorus of voices Friday evening calling on Trump to resign, adding that “he is not fit to be called a man.”

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/jon-...gn_us_57f8

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  How The Senior Wave Will Reshape The Economy
Posted by: Dan '82 - 10-02-2016, 11:05 AM - Forum: Neil Howe & The First Turning - Replies (13)

http://www.forbes.com/sites/neilhowe/201...bee3ee70ce


Quote:Over the past few years, the senior care franchise business is booming—growing 6.6% annually—and shows no sign of slowing. Small wonder: An impending wave of Boomers will swell the 65+ age bracket in the coming decades. What’s more, Boomers’ distinctive attitudes and preferences will set them apart from previous generations of seniors. Many industries, from health care to travel and hospitality, will be transformed along the way. Boomers have had a profound effect on every age bracket they have entered throughout their lives—and old age will be no exception.

The impending senior wave is powered by two distinct drivers. First, demography: Boomers will be entering older age brackets in record numbers over the next couple decades. Last year, 14.9% of the population was age 65 or over. By 2035, that share is projected to hit to 21.4%. In that same time, the share of the population over age 75 is projected to nearly double from 6.4% to 11.1%...



http://www.forbes.com/sites/neilhowe/201...bee3ee70ce

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  Breaking point: America approaching a period of disintegration
Posted by: Dan '82 - 10-02-2016, 10:43 AM - Forum: Peter Turchin's Theroies - Replies (71)

http://www.salon.com/2016/10/01/breaking...socialflow


Quote:As the 2016 campaign reaches fever pitch, the more heat there is and the less light is shed. Which is why evolutionary anthropologist Peter Turchin’s new book comes as such a breath of fresh air. “Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History” is not about this year’s presidential election, per se, but it’s a quantum leap forward in illuminating the disintegrative trends that America has experienced over the last several decades that are currently driving our politics.

Everything from skyrocketing inequality and political gridlock to white working class angst and the rise of mass shootings and other troubling signs of our times — these are all interconnected reflections of where America is in a cyclic historical process: social integration followed by disintegration, discord and violence. Turchin and others have observed this pattern repeatedly in civilizations from ancient Rome and early Chinese dynasties up to the present day...

http://www.salon.com/2016/10/01/breaking...socialflow

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