11-21-2016, 11:05 PM
Hillary = William
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Cycles of the 4T
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 (11-12-2016, 06:20 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(11-12-2016, 04:27 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: So Donald and Melania are William and Mary? Would that the solution could be so simple. As far-fetched as it is, I could see a Calexit result. Lets say Trump starts a Trade War with China that has an adverse impact on California's high tech economy. California reacts. Trumps religious right cronies get all heated and attempt to "cleanup" California. Services withheld. Money withheld. Spirals economically. I know we fought a civil war 160 years ago - but I dont think Trump would play Lincoln. His base already has disdain for California, so they may just let it happen. "Good Riddance" they would say. edit - should add certain California Institutions such as the State Legislature LAUSD, etc have already issued defensive decisions in opposition to Trump - such as no-tell on children immigration status. Also a new poll shows that Trump's supporters dont think California results should be in the national election. And yes, as the world's sixth largest economy, I think if California kept all taxes, it would be in better economic shape (maybe, never fully studied that).
12-09-2016, 09:14 AM
(12-09-2016, 04:47 AM)Arkarch Wrote:(11-12-2016, 06:20 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(11-12-2016, 04:27 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: So Donald and Melania are William and Mary? Would that the solution could be so simple. That actually makes it sound plausible. We don't even need the trade war; I think it's likely that some money will be withheld from "sanctuary cities", and I could see the immigration issue turning California into a sanctuary state. I do think Trump would do whatever was necessary to keep California in the US, though. I doubt his vision of "making America great again" involves its breaking up.
12-09-2016, 09:26 AM
(12-09-2016, 09:14 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:I don't want the USA to break up and I doubt that Trump wants a breakup.(12-09-2016, 04:47 AM)Arkarch Wrote:(11-12-2016, 06:20 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(11-12-2016, 04:27 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: So Donald and Melania are William and Mary? Would that the solution could be so simple.
… whatever is true, whatever is honorable, whatever is just, whatever is pure, whatever is lovely, whatever is commendable, if there is any excellence, if there is anything worthy of praise, think about these things. Phil 4:8 (ESV)
12-09-2016, 10:21 AM
More likely the Trump Administration would consent to some of the urban areas most hostile to him in voting and polling to become the equivalent of 'special economic zones' that might have a little autonomy and some freedoms not permitted in the 'Real America'. Access between them might be easier than access to and from the more rural hinterland. This would imply a breakup of the state structure and the federal system -- but dictatorial rulers generally prove hostile to any semblance of federalism. But note that it would be such areas as the San Francisco Bay Area, Greater Los Angeles, Greater San Diego, Monterrey-Santa Cruz, Santa Barbara, and perhaps Sacramento might be relatively free, with some academic and cultural freedom and even some tolerance for liberal politics. Outside these zone the repression would be harsh.
The electoral system would have to change, but the votes for president would be reliably be about 55-45 R, the Senate would be about 55-45 R -- likewise the House. Elsewhere Chicago and its Indiana suburbs might be free while fairly-close-by Champaign, Illinois might not be. Have a protest at the University of Illinois (Champaign) and you get to have a career milking cows after a prison term complete with savage beatings. Rural America would be the zone of farming, lumbering, mining, and sweatshop factories.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
12-12-2016, 02:55 AM
(This post was last modified: 12-12-2016, 02:57 AM by Eric the Green.)
(12-09-2016, 09:26 AM)radind Wrote:(12-09-2016, 09:14 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:I don't want the USA to break up and I doubt that Trump wants a breakup.(12-09-2016, 04:47 AM)Arkarch Wrote:(11-12-2016, 06:20 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(11-12-2016, 04:27 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: So Donald and Melania are William and Mary? Would that the solution could be so simple. Are he and his supporters ready to enforce their will on Callifornia, if California resists? The poll cited above (also mentioned by Maddow in the video I posted), suggests they will agree with Classic Xer and say good riddance. Trump's vision of making America great again is to make it as awful as it was back when his type ruled America. No thanks for the heartland vision of making America great again. I am glad that California is going the right way. You guys can keep your good old days.
12-12-2016, 02:35 PM
(12-12-2016, 02:55 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:(12-09-2016, 09:26 AM)radind Wrote:(12-09-2016, 09:14 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:I don't want the USA to break up and I doubt that Trump wants a breakup.(12-09-2016, 04:47 AM)Arkarch Wrote:(11-12-2016, 06:20 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: Let's look at this a little closer. Heartland? there is no heart in the Heartland.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
12-12-2016, 06:16 PM
(This post was last modified: 12-12-2016, 06:16 PM by Eric the Green.)
(12-12-2016, 02:35 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:(12-12-2016, 02:55 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:(12-09-2016, 09:26 AM)radind Wrote:(12-09-2016, 09:14 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:I don't want the USA to break up and I doubt that Trump wants a breakup.(12-09-2016, 04:47 AM)Arkarch Wrote: As far-fetched as it is, I could see a Calexit result. You have a point there, certainly!  It's gone to sleep.No brains either, apparently.
01-03-2017, 12:53 AM
(11-13-2016, 12:07 PM)sheridanforbes Wrote: I have been thinking about the super-saeculum idea since Trump won. If I had really studied this, I should have been able to predict the Trump win. But alas, I was as surprised as others. I totally agree.
01-03-2017, 07:13 AM
(11-12-2016, 04:15 PM)Arkarch Wrote: A few years back on the old forums, I proposed a thought about larger cycles than the four generation saeculum to help describe the nature of 4T conflicts. Perhaps its a theory done before; I am just a casual student of generational theory. The consideration is that there are pendulums alternating between hot and cold war, internal and external conflicts. I am not talking about the Soviet-US Cold war which may be part of another cycle. Doesn't this break down for the American Revolution which clearly was a hot internal war.
01-08-2017, 01:54 AM
(01-03-2017, 07:13 AM)Mikebert Wrote:(11-12-2016, 04:15 PM)Arkarch Wrote: A few years back on the old forums, I proposed a thought about larger cycles than the four generation saeculum to help describe the nature of 4T conflicts. Perhaps its a theory done before; I am just a casual student of generational theory. The consideration is that there are pendulums alternating between hot and cold war, internal and external conflicts. I am not talking about the Soviet-US Cold war which may be part of another cycle. I think that is the conventional thinking; and certainly the battles took place in the American sphere. But from the English perspective, it was external and ultimately their army was captured and they were forced away when the French came to aid. Without the French, would the British have retrenched and come back to hit even harder? So I'll maintain my 100,000 ft view that it was a proxy battle between England and France on my meager knowledge of US History.
07-18-2018, 07:46 PM
(This post was last modified: 07-18-2018, 07:49 PM by Tim Randal Walker.)
(11-12-2016, 04:15 PM)Arkarch Wrote: Current Crisis here in US - Internal Cold War
01-02-2019, 02:55 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-02-2019, 03:18 PM by Tim Randal Walker.)
It has been commented in more than one thread that our cycle resembles that of the Glorious Revolution. As I recall that 4T seemed to take a rather long time to really get going; I have to wonder if that cycle included an "Indian Autumn". I believe that it was Eric who first described it. Using the weather metaphor, you have something like very late autumn when you would expect snow. I compared it to the period between harvest and the first snow. And as the harvest is over, what is left but scavenging the past?
( Note television shows like Pickers and Pawn Stars) An Indian Autumn, I believe, was consistent with comments that appeared shortly before the end of the paleo 4T site-that our Millennial cycle felt almost gone.
01-02-2019, 07:40 PM
(01-08-2017, 01:54 AM)Arkarch Wrote:(01-03-2017, 07:13 AM)Mikebert Wrote:(11-12-2016, 04:15 PM)Arkarch Wrote: A few years back on the old forums, I proposed a thought about larger cycles than the four generation saeculum to help describe the nature of 4T conflicts. Perhaps its a theory done before; I am just a casual student of generational theory. The consideration is that there are pendulums alternating between hot and cold war, internal and external conflicts. I am not talking about the Soviet-US Cold war which may be part of another cycle. That's true, and I would add that from the American point of view, most of what became the American system of law and government was well on its way to being established, and the Revolution was mostly just a defense against an attack by the English king who wanted to restore old-style autocracy upon the colonies. It was an external hot war, an invasion by Britain of America; an invasion of British soldiers on American lands, which included a lot of German invaders as well (the Hessians). The French became our ally, in what was really one of the 9 world wars.
01-02-2019, 08:05 PM
Because of the Great Lakes, the Lower Peninsula of Michigan has delayed seasons. May is already more summer-like than spring-like, which is reflects that the winds are usually coming from the south while the sun is high and up long. June through September are really summer (highs on clear days are at least in the high 70s), October and November are autumn, December has autumn-like and winter-like characteristics, and January through March (westerly and northwesterly winds are off icy Lake Michigan, and April is Mihcigan's short springtime. until southerly and southwesterly winds prevail. Last year, April was still wintry, and the transition from winter to summer took a couple of days. In 2012, we had some freakishly warm weather in March and a dry summer -- portent of global warming with southern Michigan getting a Mediterranean climate? Southern Michigan looked much like parts of California in having yelloo0wish grass in the summer due to heat and drought.
But before global warming became a commonplace explanation of warm spells in the winter, there have always been winter thaws, probably indicating a shift from lobe flows of air masses (north-south or vice-versa) and more westerly flows . Nobody ever condused a thaw with an early onset of spring. Around 2100, Michigan winters might no longer include march -- and might be much milder in January and February than they now are. So much for the climate of southern Michigan and the potential for change from a Dfa (fire-and-ice with a nearly-even distribution of rainfall) to a Csa (hot-summer Mediterranean with a mild and rainy - and not snowy! -- winter winter but a hot, dry summer, as in Sacramento, California). Maybe the pattern of weather can change significantly in some places. It is possible that the lengthening of human lifespans allows an elderly generation to maintain influence longer than it used to. The GI Generation was influential in American life long enough to see the 'torch' of the Civic type be passed from the youngest of the GI Generation to the oldest of the Millennial Generation. The GI Generation was the healthiest elder generation in American history because it stayed physically and intellectually active into elderhood. The Silent generation has followed their lead... and I see evidence that the Boom generation will do much the same. The ferocity of most Crisis Eras typically results from the absence of an influential Adaptive generation. It is imaginable that either Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders could be the next President of the United States. The lengthening of lifespans may mitigate the worst tendencies in eras of the saeculum -- Unravelings being less destructive of the social fabric, Crises being conducted with less ferocity, Highs less conformist, and Awakenings less stormy. In most of the middle latitudes, winters have the greatest variety of weather and thermal range.It is hard to determine whether a midwinter thaw is an aftertaste of autumn or a foretaste of spring. We are probably late in the current Crisis Era, as Silent have almost entirely passed into post-elderhood as the the youngest turn 77 this year, the youngest Boomers are clearly almost all in elderhood with the youngest reaching 59 this year, the youngest X turn 38 this year and are almost entirely in midlife, and the youngest Millennial people are at least in their late teens. We now have a generational constellation much closer to that of 1945 than to that of 1929. So far we seem to have had a domestic Cold War between two ideologies almost as different as liberal humanism and perhaps post-Stalinist Communism. One side will collapse either of its absurdity or of not being ruthless enough -- and it is difficult to determine which will happen. Both sides are different enough that synthesis between the two is impossible.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
01-03-2019, 07:13 AM
(This post was last modified: 01-03-2019, 09:08 AM by Bill the Piper.)
(01-02-2019, 07:40 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: That's true, and I would add that from the American point of view, most of what became the American system of law and government was well on its way to being established, and the Revolution was mostly just a defense against an attack by the English king who wanted to restore old-style autocracy upon the colonies. It was an external hot war, an invasion by Britain of America; an invasion of British soldiers on American lands, which included a lot of German invaders as well (the Hessians). The French became our ally, in what was really one of the 9 world wars. I am intrigued. We always hear of two. Tell me about the other seven!
01-04-2019, 04:05 AM
The wars between Persia and Greece and between Rome and Carthage were waged with severity analogous to the First and Second World Wars. The Crusades involved the world known to Islam and Christendom.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
01-04-2019, 03:58 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-04-2019, 04:34 PM by Eric the Green.)
(01-03-2019, 07:13 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote:(01-02-2019, 07:40 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: That's true, and I would add that from the American point of view, most of what became the American system of law and government was well on its way to being established, and the Revolution was mostly just a defense against an attack by the English king who wanted to restore old-style autocracy upon the colonies. It was an external hot war, an invasion by Britain of America; an invasion of British soldiers on American lands, which included a lot of German invaders as well (the Hessians). The French became our ally, in what was really one of the 9 world wars. They were really European wars, but for European mindsets, Europe was the world, right? And to an extent, it was, because the Europeans were in the process of taking over the world, a mission that began in circa 1400 and was completed in circa 1900. So the wars were often fought in the colonies too. So let's see if I can remember them all, going backwards. The Wars of the French Revolution and Napoleonic Wars, 1792-1815. (sometimes this is divided between the two parts, but I don't really go along with that) The Wars of the American Revolution, 1775-1783. The Seven Years War, 1756-1763. (French and Indian War in America) The Wars of the Austrian Succession, 1740s The Wars of the Spanish Succession, 1688 to 1715. (King William's War in America, during the Glorious Revolution Crisis era) Sometimes this is broken up into two wars, with the Wars of the Grand Alliance or League of Augsburg dated 1688-1697 and the Spanish Succession War 1701 to 1715. The 30 Years War, 1618-1648. So including both halves of the Glorious Crisis wars, and the two 20th century world wars, that's 9. Often the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648 which ended the wars of religion is seen as setting the stage for the succeeding era of wars between great allied powers, so the 9 world wars would not include the 30 Years War, and would include both halves of the Glorious Revolutionary and the French Revolutionary wars. I may have missed one, but we could include the 100 Years War, going back to 1340s to 1453, or the war of the previous 4T crisis, the Spanish Armada Wars in the 1580s. There are a few others outside Europe mentioned in this article I found too: https://militaryhistorynow.com/2014/07/2...fore-1914/ And some may include World War Three, aka The Cold War and its hot war proxies. It is assumed we got through this war from 1947 to 1989 without the feared nuclear confrontation usually called "World War Three." Here's a simple view, showing the names in both Europe and America, and including the two divided-up wars: https://quizlet.com/48185037/the-nine-9-...ash-cards/ Previous great wars were from the Age of Mars (Bronze Age and early Iron Age, circa 2100 BCE to circa 410 CE), and the Age of Jupiter (the Age of Faith, or Dark Ages/Medieval times). They were not quite the same, for although they involved vast territories and armies, they were wars of conquest by 1 Empire, and in the Age of Faith this became religious imperialism. The wars of religion from the time of the Reformation in 1517 were during the Renaissance era, and could be described as the Christian civil war, which destroyed The Age of Faith. In the 30 Years War, it became a destructive war involving great powers. I call the age from late Medieval times (circa 1300) to the Revolution (circa 1780s) as the Saturn era, the era of dynastic states as great powers. From 1648 on, the wars were between the great European powers, but without as much religion involved. There was some though, as the French Revolution War was in part caused by the dispute over changes to religion's role in the state which the French Revolutionaries were making to their new constitution. |
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