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01-10-2017, 06:11 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-10-2017, 06:12 PM by Bronsin.)
It really doesn't matter if the Dems win the next election or not. By that time, another mid-term will have been held, and that should be enough to eradicate the last of the liberals from the House and Senate because we all know the libs don't show up for mid-terms. We will just have another POTUS like Ovomit that gets stymied at every turn. Good Luck with that, Laffin'..................
Knowledge doesn't equal Understanding, and the Truth is the Truth no matter what you think of it.
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(01-10-2017, 06:11 PM)Bronsin Wrote: It really doesn't matter if the Dems win the next election or not. By that time, another mid-term will have been held, and that should be enough to eradicate the last of the liberals from the House and Senate because we all know the libs don't show up for mid-terms. We will just have another POTUS like Ovomit that gets stymied at every turn. Good Luck with that, Laffin'..................
Be careful about what you wish for. You might get it.
Liberals have an excellent record on human rights. Should we be shoved out of the political scene, the right-wingers will split into factions out to get each other in the name of ideological purity. You will miss us.
Liberals did show up in the 2006 mid-terms. All it took was a failed Presidency. We have plenty of time for an economic meltdownto ravage the shaky support for Donald Trump and the GOP majority.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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Oh I'm not wishing for it. I'm just saying the Dems got slaughtered in the last 2 mid-terms, and I expect that to continue because their voters only turn out for the big ticket elections. Not enough of them care about local elections to make a serious run at anything.
Knowledge doesn't equal Understanding, and the Truth is the Truth no matter what you think of it.
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(01-10-2017, 07:49 PM)Bronsin Wrote: Oh I'm not wishing for it. I'm just saying the Dems got slaughtered in the last 2 mid-terms, and I expect that to continue because their voters only turn out for the big ticket elections. Not enough of them care about local elections to make a serious run at anything.
Of course. Political patterns can change rapidly. There is little potential gain for Democrats in 2018, but there are critical elections (gubernatorial) that can ensure that they have a good chance of winning big in 2020. If Democrats lose those elections, then winning enough to change the political agenda of America will be extremely difficult.
I expect Donald Trump and the GOP majority to fail catastrophically in an attempt to reshape the nature of American politics. That is where the permanent change comes from.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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(01-08-2017, 12:28 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: (01-07-2017, 11:55 PM)naf140230 Wrote: I found this article I think you shuold see. Here is the URL: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-siege...92304.html
Here is the article:
Quote:In 1928, despite Democrat Al Smith’s loss to Republican Herbert Hoover, political scientists found critical changes in American electoral and demographic patterns that began the reversal of the three decade Republican lock on party identification. These changes led to a restructuring and realignment of the major American political parties that lasted for generations. I believe that the 2016 and 2020 elections can repeat the sequence of the 1928 and 1932 resulting in sustained Democratic political domination and a potential long-term hemorrhage of Republican party support on the national level.
There are three reasons for the realignment that is already underway. First, the new demography of the United States is dramatically changing party identification and the current Republican Party doesn’t look or think like the new America. Second, the Trump phenomenon has ruptured the Republican political brand and accelerated the party’s fatal weaknesses with the expanding constituencies of this new America. Third, the coincidence of the 2020 decennial census and a presidential election will swell Democratic turnout for down ballot elections of Governors and state legislatures that will subsequently redistrict the House of Representatives for a decade.
The 1928 campaign of Governor Al Smith of New York expanded the demography of the Democratic Party to embrace urban voters, workers, blacks, academics, the senior citizens and Jews. The campaign began to uproot the Republican political dominance that had been in place since 1896. Political scientists label 1928 a “critical election” because it signaled the beginning of a structural change that culminated in the 1932 “realigning” election of Democrat Franklin Roosevelt.
Data on the American electorate since 1988 shows a dramatic demographic shift that has now reached critical mass: the white electorate has shrunk from 88% of overall turnout to an anticipated 69% this year. Blacks, Hispanics and Asians are expected to comprise 31% of the 2016 electorate, with Hillary Clinton expected to receive between 80-92% of the non-white vote. Voters under 30 have single digit support for the Republican ticket and single women are repudiating not only Trump, but traditional Republican ideology by dramatic margins. These increasingly powerful demographic constituencies identify and vote significantly Democratic, thus making a Republican national election victory — even if Republicans had a strong, non-controversial candidate — improbable.
The Republican Party conducted an “autopsy” after its 2012 defeat. That RNC report concluded that the Party must reach out, programmatically and symbolically, to blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and women. Yet, the only response by Republican State parties to these recommendations has been not to reach out to these growing constituencies, but rather to adopt voter suppression legislation to prevent them from voting. And as the Republican base of old white men dies off, the demographic base of the Democratic Party continues to attract the expanding constituencies of the new American electorate.
The votes of the Electoral College states that consistently vote Democratic has now swelled to a reliable 244, just 26 electoral votes from the majority needed to win. For Republican presidential candidates to prevail in the Electoral College, they must thread the needle of marginal “purple” states, needing to win ALL of them to succeed.
Current demography makes a Republican win increasingly difficult, exacerbating recent historical trends. In the last six presidential elections Republicans have lost the popular vote five times. They prevailed in the Electoral College in 2000 and 2004 with 284 and 286 Electoral College votes, a margin of 14 and 16 electoral votes out of 538. In the last four elections won by Democrats, they received 370 Electoral College votes in 1992, 379 in 1996, 365 in 2008 and 332 in 2012, margins of victory ranging from 52 to 109. Democrats can afford to lose almost all purple states and still top 270.
The Trump-ization of the Republican Party in 2016 makes the future of the party even more problematic. The outlook for Trump’s candidacy points to the same losing Electoral College pattern — or worse — with even the “red” states of NC, AR, GA and MO now in play. And demographic projections currently predict that Texas, the most critical Republican prize of all, with 32 electoral votes, will slip from “red” to “purple” to “blue” within two cycles as a result of of the rapid acceleration of the Hispanic electorate. When — not if — Texas turns blue, the Republicans, under the best of conditions, will cease to be a competitive national political party in presidential elections.
But what about the future control of the House of Representatives? The Republicans, principally because of skillful redistricting, have a 30-vote majority. This is where the coincidence of the census and presidential elections comes into play. The Republican Party, in the tsunami of the 2010 midterm election, took control of 22 state legislatures. In the reliably blue states of MI, PA and WI, Republicans seized control of the redistricting process. They also controlled redistricting in the purple states of OH, FL and NC. In these six states combined, the Republicans gerrymandered the map to create 34 new (and non-competitive) safe Republican House seats.
For example, as a result of this off-year election gerrymandering, in blue Pennsylvania Republicans control 13 of the 18 House seats despite the fact that Democrats cast 100,000 more popular votes for House candidates than Republicans in 2014. In Florida, Republicans have 63% of the House seats, in Michigan 64%, in OH 75% in NC 77% and in WI 63%. A Democratic controlled redistricting in some or all of these states after the 2020 elections and census could very well reverse party control of the House of Representatives for at least a decade.
All of these factors make it reasonable to predict that 2016-2020 will give political scientists what they have not seen for almost a century: a “critical election” (2016) followed by a “realigning election” (2020) resulting in Democratic domination on the national level of the emerging era of American politics.
Oh, do I wish this were true.
Just to remind you -- the Republican Party has achieved an ominous resemblance to the racist Nationalist party of Apartheid-era South Africa, and in a very short time. Beyond any question the demographics of South Africa under Apartheid were such that the Nationalist Party could never win a free election. It got electoral results much like those of Commie states except for being a racist, ultra-capitalist party with a populist veneer. Does that sound familiar?
Republicans have mastered the art of gerrymandering to ensure that the House of Representatives will represent rural areas very well (rural voters vote like European peasants -- keep taxes and government services small) and people elsewhere badly. It isw safe to say that about 20% of the electorate does not matter in Congressional politics -- ever, at least since 2010. The right-wingers can get away with just about anything short of calling for genocide or a restoration of slavery, and in practice they are but stooges for corporate lobbyi9sts responsible only to their paymasters.
I expect the current Congress, most state legislatures, and the President to be so corrupt that they dare not lose. Should they lose they will face prison terms -- so they would rather criminalize dissent as prevention and ensure their re-election in a rigged election. I expect violence against Democratic politicians who challenge Republicans meaningfully.
There is no historical analogue to Donald Trump in American history. That's scary. He is a wild card in the worst possible way. At best he is Horthy. At worst he is Duvalier.
Are you paranoid? Are you crazy? Are you so used to crying wolf to get attention and to get whatever it is that you want? I think this 4T forum needs to create a special corner/room for you and a few others to do your thing while the rest of talk to one another more realistically. People like you drove the old 4T into the toilet. I'm tired of you. Middle America is tired of you. The Democratic party is going down because it appears to be loaded with people and controlled by people like you. I feel bad for the regular Democrats. The only ominous resemblance that I see is the Democratic party seems to be a lot like Yugoslavia.
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(01-10-2017, 07:49 PM)Bronsin Wrote: Oh I'm not wishing for it. I'm just saying the Dems got slaughtered in the last 2 mid-terms, and I expect that to continue because their voters only turn out for the big ticket elections. Not enough of them care about local elections to make a serious run at anything.
I'd expect them to turn out in the upcoming mid term. I also expect a larger turnout of new Trump voters as well.
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(01-11-2017, 08:17 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (01-08-2017, 12:28 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: (01-07-2017, 11:55 PM)naf140230 Wrote: I found this article I think you shuold see. Here is the URL: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-siege...92304.html
Here is the article:
Quote:In 1928, despite Democrat Al Smith’s loss to Republican Herbert Hoover, political scientists found critical changes in American electoral and demographic patterns that began the reversal of the three decade Republican lock on party identification. These changes led to a restructuring and realignment of the major American political parties that lasted for generations. I believe that the 2016 and 2020 elections can repeat the sequence of the 1928 and 1932 resulting in sustained Democratic political domination and a potential long-term hemorrhage of Republican party support on the national level.
There are three reasons for the realignment that is already underway. First, the new demography of the United States is dramatically changing party identification and the current Republican Party doesn’t look or think like the new America. Second, the Trump phenomenon has ruptured the Republican political brand and accelerated the party’s fatal weaknesses with the expanding constituencies of this new America. Third, the coincidence of the 2020 decennial census and a presidential election will swell Democratic turnout for down ballot elections of Governors and state legislatures that will subsequently redistrict the House of Representatives for a decade.
The 1928 campaign of Governor Al Smith of New York expanded the demography of the Democratic Party to embrace urban voters, workers, blacks, academics, the senior citizens and Jews. The campaign began to uproot the Republican political dominance that had been in place since 1896. Political scientists label 1928 a “critical election” because it signaled the beginning of a structural change that culminated in the 1932 “realigning” election of Democrat Franklin Roosevelt.
Data on the American electorate since 1988 shows a dramatic demographic shift that has now reached critical mass: the white electorate has shrunk from 88% of overall turnout to an anticipated 69% this year. Blacks, Hispanics and Asians are expected to comprise 31% of the 2016 electorate, with Hillary Clinton expected to receive between 80-92% of the non-white vote. Voters under 30 have single digit support for the Republican ticket and single women are repudiating not only Trump, but traditional Republican ideology by dramatic margins. These increasingly powerful demographic constituencies identify and vote significantly Democratic, thus making a Republican national election victory — even if Republicans had a strong, non-controversial candidate — improbable.
The Republican Party conducted an “autopsy” after its 2012 defeat. That RNC report concluded that the Party must reach out, programmatically and symbolically, to blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and women. Yet, the only response by Republican State parties to these recommendations has been not to reach out to these growing constituencies, but rather to adopt voter suppression legislation to prevent them from voting. And as the Republican base of old white men dies off, the demographic base of the Democratic Party continues to attract the expanding constituencies of the new American electorate.
The votes of the Electoral College states that consistently vote Democratic has now swelled to a reliable 244, just 26 electoral votes from the majority needed to win. For Republican presidential candidates to prevail in the Electoral College, they must thread the needle of marginal “purple” states, needing to win ALL of them to succeed.
Current demography makes a Republican win increasingly difficult, exacerbating recent historical trends. In the last six presidential elections Republicans have lost the popular vote five times. They prevailed in the Electoral College in 2000 and 2004 with 284 and 286 Electoral College votes, a margin of 14 and 16 electoral votes out of 538. In the last four elections won by Democrats, they received 370 Electoral College votes in 1992, 379 in 1996, 365 in 2008 and 332 in 2012, margins of victory ranging from 52 to 109. Democrats can afford to lose almost all purple states and still top 270.
The Trump-ization of the Republican Party in 2016 makes the future of the party even more problematic. The outlook for Trump’s candidacy points to the same losing Electoral College pattern — or worse — with even the “red” states of NC, AR, GA and MO now in play. And demographic projections currently predict that Texas, the most critical Republican prize of all, with 32 electoral votes, will slip from “red” to “purple” to “blue” within two cycles as a result of of the rapid acceleration of the Hispanic electorate. When — not if — Texas turns blue, the Republicans, under the best of conditions, will cease to be a competitive national political party in presidential elections.
But what about the future control of the House of Representatives? The Republicans, principally because of skillful redistricting, have a 30-vote majority. This is where the coincidence of the census and presidential elections comes into play. The Republican Party, in the tsunami of the 2010 midterm election, took control of 22 state legislatures. In the reliably blue states of MI, PA and WI, Republicans seized control of the redistricting process. They also controlled redistricting in the purple states of OH, FL and NC. In these six states combined, the Republicans gerrymandered the map to create 34 new (and non-competitive) safe Republican House seats.
For example, as a result of this off-year election gerrymandering, in blue Pennsylvania Republicans control 13 of the 18 House seats despite the fact that Democrats cast 100,000 more popular votes for House candidates than Republicans in 2014. In Florida, Republicans have 63% of the House seats, in Michigan 64%, in OH 75% in NC 77% and in WI 63%. A Democratic controlled redistricting in some or all of these states after the 2020 elections and census could very well reverse party control of the House of Representatives for at least a decade.
All of these factors make it reasonable to predict that 2016-2020 will give political scientists what they have not seen for almost a century: a “critical election” (2016) followed by a “realigning election” (2020) resulting in Democratic domination on the national level of the emerging era of American politics.
Oh, do I wish this were true.
Just to remind you -- the Republican Party has achieved an ominous resemblance to the racist Nationalist party of Apartheid-era South Africa, and in a very short time. Beyond any question the demographics of South Africa under Apartheid were such that the Nationalist Party could never win a free election. It got electoral results much like those of Commie states except for being a racist, ultra-capitalist party with a populist veneer. Does that sound familiar?
Republicans have mastered the art of gerrymandering to ensure that the House of Representatives will represent rural areas very well (rural voters vote like European peasants -- keep taxes and government services small) and people elsewhere badly. It isw safe to say that about 20% of the electorate does not matter in Congressional politics -- ever, at least since 2010. The right-wingers can get away with just about anything short of calling for genocide or a restoration of slavery, and in practice they are but stooges for corporate lobbyi9sts responsible only to their paymasters.
I expect the current Congress, most state legislatures, and the President to be so corrupt that they dare not lose. Should they lose they will face prison terms -- so they would rather criminalize dissent as prevention and ensure their re-election in a rigged election. I expect violence against Democratic politicians who challenge Republicans meaningfully.
There is no historical analogue to Donald Trump in American history. That's scary. He is a wild card in the worst possible way. At best he is Horthy. At worst he is Duvalier.
Are you paranoid? Are you crazy? Are you so used to crying wolf to get attention and to get whatever it is that you want? I think this 4T forum needs to create a special corner/room for you and a few others to do your thing while the rest of talk to one another more realistically. People like you drove the old 4T into the toilet. I'm tired of you. Middle America is tired of you. The Democratic party is going down because it appears to be loaded with people and controlled by people like you. I feel bad for the regular Democrats. The only ominous resemblance that I see is the Democratic party seems to be a lot like Yugoslavia.
The dishonorable immorality of Trump and the Republicans is beyond description. If things continue in the direction you now want, expect the end of your country, Classic Xer.
Posts: 10,465
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(01-11-2017, 08:17 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: Are you paranoid? Are you crazy? Are you so used to crying wolf to get attention and to get whatever it is that you want? I think this 4T forum needs to create a special corner/room for you and a few others to do your thing while the rest of talk to one another more realistically. People like you drove the old 4T into the toilet. I'm tired of you. Middle America is tired of you. The Democratic party is going down because it appears to be loaded with people and controlled by people like you. I feel bad for the regular Democrats. The only ominous resemblance that I see is the Democratic party seems to be a lot like Yugoslavia.
I assume the worst with people who show evidence of violence, dishonesty, and quick anger. I distrust extreme egoism. I distrust people who show contempt for learning and rational thought processes.
Now why should I trust Donald Trump?
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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(01-12-2017, 12:32 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: (01-11-2017, 08:17 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: Are you paranoid? Are you crazy? Are you so used to crying wolf to get attention and to get whatever it is that you want? I think this 4T forum needs to create a special corner/room for you and a few others to do your thing while the rest of talk to one another more realistically. People like you drove the old 4T into the toilet. I'm tired of you. Middle America is tired of you. The Democratic party is going down because it appears to be loaded with people and controlled by people like you. I feel bad for the regular Democrats. The only ominous resemblance that I see is the Democratic party seems to be a lot like Yugoslavia.
I assume the worst with people who show evidence of violence, dishonesty, and quick anger. I distrust extreme egoism. I distrust people who show contempt for learning and rational thought processes.
Now why should I trust Donald Trump?
I wouldn't trust Trump if I were you at this point.
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(01-11-2017, 11:39 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: (01-11-2017, 08:17 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (01-08-2017, 12:28 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: (01-07-2017, 11:55 PM)naf140230 Wrote: I found this article I think you shuold see. Here is the URL: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-siege...92304.html
Here is the article:
Quote:In 1928, despite Democrat Al Smith’s loss to Republican Herbert Hoover, political scientists found critical changes in American electoral and demographic patterns that began the reversal of the three decade Republican lock on party identification. These changes led to a restructuring and realignment of the major American political parties that lasted for generations. I believe that the 2016 and 2020 elections can repeat the sequence of the 1928 and 1932 resulting in sustained Democratic political domination and a potential long-term hemorrhage of Republican party support on the national level.
There are three reasons for the realignment that is already underway. First, the new demography of the United States is dramatically changing party identification and the current Republican Party doesn’t look or think like the new America. Second, the Trump phenomenon has ruptured the Republican political brand and accelerated the party’s fatal weaknesses with the expanding constituencies of this new America. Third, the coincidence of the 2020 decennial census and a presidential election will swell Democratic turnout for down ballot elections of Governors and state legislatures that will subsequently redistrict the House of Representatives for a decade.
The 1928 campaign of Governor Al Smith of New York expanded the demography of the Democratic Party to embrace urban voters, workers, blacks, academics, the senior citizens and Jews. The campaign began to uproot the Republican political dominance that had been in place since 1896. Political scientists label 1928 a “critical election” because it signaled the beginning of a structural change that culminated in the 1932 “realigning” election of Democrat Franklin Roosevelt.
Data on the American electorate since 1988 shows a dramatic demographic shift that has now reached critical mass: the white electorate has shrunk from 88% of overall turnout to an anticipated 69% this year. Blacks, Hispanics and Asians are expected to comprise 31% of the 2016 electorate, with Hillary Clinton expected to receive between 80-92% of the non-white vote. Voters under 30 have single digit support for the Republican ticket and single women are repudiating not only Trump, but traditional Republican ideology by dramatic margins. These increasingly powerful demographic constituencies identify and vote significantly Democratic, thus making a Republican national election victory — even if Republicans had a strong, non-controversial candidate — improbable.
The Republican Party conducted an “autopsy” after its 2012 defeat. That RNC report concluded that the Party must reach out, programmatically and symbolically, to blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and women. Yet, the only response by Republican State parties to these recommendations has been not to reach out to these growing constituencies, but rather to adopt voter suppression legislation to prevent them from voting. And as the Republican base of old white men dies off, the demographic base of the Democratic Party continues to attract the expanding constituencies of the new American electorate.
The votes of the Electoral College states that consistently vote Democratic has now swelled to a reliable 244, just 26 electoral votes from the majority needed to win. For Republican presidential candidates to prevail in the Electoral College, they must thread the needle of marginal “purple” states, needing to win ALL of them to succeed.
Current demography makes a Republican win increasingly difficult, exacerbating recent historical trends. In the last six presidential elections Republicans have lost the popular vote five times. They prevailed in the Electoral College in 2000 and 2004 with 284 and 286 Electoral College votes, a margin of 14 and 16 electoral votes out of 538. In the last four elections won by Democrats, they received 370 Electoral College votes in 1992, 379 in 1996, 365 in 2008 and 332 in 2012, margins of victory ranging from 52 to 109. Democrats can afford to lose almost all purple states and still top 270.
The Trump-ization of the Republican Party in 2016 makes the future of the party even more problematic. The outlook for Trump’s candidacy points to the same losing Electoral College pattern — or worse — with even the “red” states of NC, AR, GA and MO now in play. And demographic projections currently predict that Texas, the most critical Republican prize of all, with 32 electoral votes, will slip from “red” to “purple” to “blue” within two cycles as a result of of the rapid acceleration of the Hispanic electorate. When — not if — Texas turns blue, the Republicans, under the best of conditions, will cease to be a competitive national political party in presidential elections.
But what about the future control of the House of Representatives? The Republicans, principally because of skillful redistricting, have a 30-vote majority. This is where the coincidence of the census and presidential elections comes into play. The Republican Party, in the tsunami of the 2010 midterm election, took control of 22 state legislatures. In the reliably blue states of MI, PA and WI, Republicans seized control of the redistricting process. They also controlled redistricting in the purple states of OH, FL and NC. In these six states combined, the Republicans gerrymandered the map to create 34 new (and non-competitive) safe Republican House seats.
For example, as a result of this off-year election gerrymandering, in blue Pennsylvania Republicans control 13 of the 18 House seats despite the fact that Democrats cast 100,000 more popular votes for House candidates than Republicans in 2014. In Florida, Republicans have 63% of the House seats, in Michigan 64%, in OH 75% in NC 77% and in WI 63%. A Democratic controlled redistricting in some or all of these states after the 2020 elections and census could very well reverse party control of the House of Representatives for at least a decade.
All of these factors make it reasonable to predict that 2016-2020 will give political scientists what they have not seen for almost a century: a “critical election” (2016) followed by a “realigning election” (2020) resulting in Democratic domination on the national level of the emerging era of American politics.
Oh, do I wish this were true.
Just to remind you -- the Republican Party has achieved an ominous resemblance to the racist Nationalist party of Apartheid-era South Africa, and in a very short time. Beyond any question the demographics of South Africa under Apartheid were such that the Nationalist Party could never win a free election. It got electoral results much like those of Commie states except for being a racist, ultra-capitalist party with a populist veneer. Does that sound familiar?
Republicans have mastered the art of gerrymandering to ensure that the House of Representatives will represent rural areas very well (rural voters vote like European peasants -- keep taxes and government services small) and people elsewhere badly. It isw safe to say that about 20% of the electorate does not matter in Congressional politics -- ever, at least since 2010. The right-wingers can get away with just about anything short of calling for genocide or a restoration of slavery, and in practice they are but stooges for corporate lobbyi9sts responsible only to their paymasters.
I expect the current Congress, most state legislatures, and the President to be so corrupt that they dare not lose. Should they lose they will face prison terms -- so they would rather criminalize dissent as prevention and ensure their re-election in a rigged election. I expect violence against Democratic politicians who challenge Republicans meaningfully.
There is no historical analogue to Donald Trump in American history. That's scary. He is a wild card in the worst possible way. At best he is Horthy. At worst he is Duvalier.
Are you paranoid? Are you crazy? Are you so used to crying wolf to get attention and to get whatever it is that you want? I think this 4T forum needs to create a special corner/room for you and a few others to do your thing while the rest of talk to one another more realistically. People like you drove the old 4T into the toilet. I'm tired of you. Middle America is tired of you. The Democratic party is going down because it appears to be loaded with people and controlled by people like you. I feel bad for the regular Democrats. The only ominous resemblance that I see is the Democratic party seems to be a lot like Yugoslavia.
The dishonorable immorality of Trump and the Republicans is beyond description. If things continue in the direction you now want, expect the end of your country, Classic Xer.
Politics can get really dirty at times. You above all should know that to be true. You've participated in it. I've been directly involved and highly engaged with it many times. You've seen it. You were around during the Bush years. Lots of low down dirty and nasty progressive politics were going on during the Bush years and every political season that I can remember as an adult.
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01-13-2017, 03:21 AM
(This post was last modified: 01-13-2017, 03:25 AM by Eric the Green.)
(01-12-2017, 07:07 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (01-11-2017, 11:39 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: (01-11-2017, 08:17 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: ......
Are you paranoid? Are you crazy? Are you so used to crying wolf to get attention and to get whatever it is that you want? I think this 4T forum needs to create a special corner/room for you and a few others to do your thing while the rest of talk to one another more realistically. People like you drove the old 4T into the toilet. I'm tired of you. Middle America is tired of you. The Democratic party is going down because it appears to be loaded with people and controlled by people like you. I feel bad for the regular Democrats. The only ominous resemblance that I see is the Democratic party seems to be a lot like Yugoslavia.
The dishonorable immorality of Trump and the Republicans is beyond description. If things continue in the direction you now want, expect the end of your country, Classic Xer.
Politics can get really dirty at times. You above all should know that to be true. You've participated in it. I've been directly involved and highly engaged with it many times. You've seen it. You were around during the Bush years. Lots of low down dirty and nasty progressive politics were going on during the Bush years and every political season that I can remember as an adult.
No doubt that is true. My point is that when brower or myself etc. describe Trump as dangerous, it's because he IS dangerous. It may turn out that he is better than we think. But from his actions so far, he shows no sign of it. No one using any common sense can look at his appointments, and much (though not all) of his behavior so far, and during the campaign, with anything other than dread and revulsion. In effect, anyone not sounding a bit "crazy" now about him, may be crazy.
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All the younger people who will no longer be able to be covered under their parents' insurance when the GOP repeals the ACA are definitely going to get out and vote, now. As will the people whose loved ones will DIE because they have a pre-existing condition and can't get insurance.
#MakeTheDemocratsGreatAgain
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(01-12-2017, 06:27 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (01-12-2017, 12:32 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: (01-11-2017, 08:17 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: Are you paranoid? Are you crazy? Are you so used to crying wolf to get attention and to get whatever it is that you want? I think this 4T forum needs to create a special corner/room for you and a few others to do your thing while the rest of talk to one another more realistically. People like you drove the old 4T into the toilet. I'm tired of you. Middle America is tired of you. The Democratic party is going down because it appears to be loaded with people and controlled by people like you. I feel bad for the regular Democrats. The only ominous resemblance that I see is the Democratic party seems to be a lot like Yugoslavia.
I assume the worst with people who show evidence of violence, dishonesty, and quick anger. I distrust extreme egoism. I distrust people who show contempt for learning and rational thought processes.
Now why should I trust Donald Trump?
I wouldn't trust Trump if I were you at this point.
Why do you trust him?
For us liberals there is still some safety in numbers. There just aren't enough jail cells to hold us all. We liberals are more cosmopolitan than some of our heroes, the blacks struggling for their civil rights in the South in the 1960s were... they could have never been 'home' anywhere else. We still recognize that the rule of law still holds, and that it is wiser to do protests or demonstrations in places where the city government is still liberal, like Chicago, than in hick towns in which the sheriff thinks that Donald Trump is everything that America has ever led to.
Donald Trump will create plenty of countries hostile to American foreign policy and especially to the Trump ideology. But if I am in grave danger in America and might be useful in ... let's say Indonesia, which offers political asylum... I am no fool. Tyranny deserves no loyalty. But in any event I have been through enough in recent years that I can easily imagine myself in a situation in which death solves all my problems. I might still need some comfort in the Hereafter or in reincarnation, as I have yet to find it... The life of a political refugee is agonizing in its way, but so is languishing in a political prison.
First the tyrant goes for overt opponents. Then he goes after those who show subtle signs of dissent... maybe someone who tells an unflattering joke or grumbles about his work being too hard. Then he goes after those who might shade a bit the wrong way.
...I have valid heroes. Do you?
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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(01-10-2017, 07:49 PM)Bronsin Wrote: Oh I'm not wishing for it. I'm just saying the Dems got slaughtered in the last 2 mid-terms, and I expect that to continue because their voters only turn out for the big ticket elections. Not enough of them care about local elections to make a serious run at anything.
And worse yet, the map of Senate seats up for re-election in 2018 is absolutely brutal for the Democrats, who could very well lose the filibuster if the map holds up.
If they do lose the filibuster, the Republicans will go full retard: The income tax will get replaced with a national sales tax, EMTALA will be repealed, there will be a national right-to-work law, Social Security and Medicare will be privatized, and many other things that will touch off a wave of mass emigration that will ensure the Republicans' domination of the country virtually in perpetuity.
"These, and many other matters which might be noticed, add a volume of unofficial declarations to the mass of organic utterances that this is a Christian nation" - Justice David Brewer, Church of the Holy Trinity v. United States, 1892
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01-14-2017, 09:35 AM
(This post was last modified: 01-14-2017, 09:37 AM by Mikebert.)
(01-11-2017, 08:17 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: The Democratic party is going down because it appears to be loaded with people and controlled by people like you. I feel bad for the regular Democrats. The only ominous resemblance that I see is the Democratic party seems to be a lot like Yugoslavia.
It is not fun to be a regular Democrat in flyover country nowadays. Although I wouldn't count them out quite yet, people were saying the same things about Republicans in 2009. Obama built the current Republican party by being alien to a lot of non-liberal white folks. Frankly Trump is just as alien to the non-conservative non-white folks in the country, and he is not all that popular with the remainder. Trump is likely to build the Democratic party as Obama did the Republicans.
Right now, Trump commands the Republican base and the GOP establishment will trend lightly. Trump is perfectly willing to throw all sort of bones to these guys: tax cuts, ending Obamacare, deregulating Wall Street, genuflecting toward Israel, unremitting hostility towards Iran. But there are a couple of things Trump ran on that they dislike. One is trade and immigration restriction. They are likely to give Trump something here because he DID run (and win) on it and they KNOW the base really wants the latter (and Trump wants the former).
But then then there is the Russia thing. Trump really seems to like Russia and wants to cut them all sorts of slack for no reason discernable to establishment Republicans. I think they will find this an irritation that will not go away.
When we eventually have a recession, Trumps popularity will fall as it always does. If it starts before the mid-terms Republicans will suffer larger losses than they expect today and so will be grumpy and unwilling to roll over for him on things like Russia. The second half of Trump's term could see the return of gridlock despite nominal Republican control of all three branches of government.
So if I were advising Trump I would tell him his power is at a maximum now, he needs to use it to get his agenda passed first, before spending political capital on theirs.
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(01-14-2017, 09:35 AM)Mikebert Wrote: (01-11-2017, 08:17 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: The Democratic party is going down because it appears to be loaded with people and controlled by people like you. I feel bad for the regular Democrats. The only ominous resemblance that I see is the Democratic party seems to be a lot like Yugoslavia.
It is not fun to be a regular Democrat in flyover country nowadays. Although I wouldn't count them out quite yet, people were saying the same things about Republicans in 2009. Obama built the current Republican party by being alien to a lot of non-liberal white folks. Frankly Trump is just as alien to the non-conservative non-white folks in the country, and he is not all that popular with the remainder. Trump is likely to build the Democratic party as Obama did the Republicans.
Right now, Trump commands the Republican base and the GOP establishment will trend lightly. Trump is perfectly willing to throw all sort of bones to these guys: tax cuts, ending Obamacare, deregulating Wall Street, genuflecting toward Israel, unremitting hostility towards Iran. But there are a couple of things Trump ran on that they dislike. One is trade and immigration restriction. They are likely to give Trump something here because he DID run (and win) on it and they KNOW the base really wants the latter (and Trump wants the former).
But then then there is the Russia thing. Trump really seems to like Russia and wants to cut them all sorts of slack for no reason discernable to establishment Republicans. I think they will find this an irritation that will not go away.
When we eventually have a recession, Trumps popularity will fall as it always does. If it starts before the mid-terms Republicans will suffer larger losses than they expect today and so will be grumpy and unwilling to roll over for him on things like Russia. The second half of Trump's term could see the return of gridlock despite nominal Republican control of all three branches of government.
So if I were advising Trump I would tell him his power is at a maximum now, he needs to use it to get his agenda passed first, before spending political capital on theirs.
Pretty spot on there.
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(01-14-2017, 08:59 AM)Anthony Wrote: (01-10-2017, 07:49 PM)Bronsin Wrote: Oh I'm not wishing for it. I'm just saying the Dems got slaughtered in the last 2 mid-terms, and I expect that to continue because their voters only turn out for the big ticket elections. Not enough of them care about local elections to make a serious run at anything.
And worse yet, the map of Senate seats up for re-election in 2018 is absolutely brutal for the Democrats, who could very well lose the filibuster if the map holds up.
If they do lose the filibuster, the Republicans will go full retard: The income tax will get replaced with a national sales tax, EMTALA will be repealed, there will be a national right-to-work law, Social Security and Medicare will be privatized, and many other things that will touch off a wave of mass emigration that will ensure the Republicans' domination of the country virtually in perpetuity.
You paint such a rosy picture. Sadly, I suspect you're not entirely correct. Would be great, though.
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(01-14-2017, 09:35 AM)Mikebert Wrote: (01-11-2017, 08:17 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: The Democratic party is going down because it appears to be loaded with people and controlled by people like you. I feel bad for the regular Democrats. The only ominous resemblance that I see is the Democratic party seems to be a lot like Yugoslavia.
It is not fun to be a regular Democrat in flyover country nowadays. Although I wouldn't count them out quite yet, people were saying the same things about Republicans in 2009. Obama built the current Republican party by being alien to a lot of non-liberal white folks. Frankly Trump is just as alien to the non-conservative non-white folks in the country, and he is not all that popular with the remainder. Trump is likely to build the Democratic party as Obama did the Republicans.
Right now, Trump commands the Republican base and the GOP establishment will trend lightly. Trump is perfectly willing to throw all sort of bones to these guys: tax cuts, ending Obamacare, deregulating Wall Street, genuflecting toward Israel, unremitting hostility towards Iran. But there are a couple of things Trump ran on that they dislike. One is trade and immigration restriction. They are likely to give Trump something here because he DID run (and win) on it and they KNOW the base really wants the latter (and Trump wants the former).
But then then there is the Russia thing. Trump really seems to like Russia and wants to cut them all sorts of slack for no reason discernable to establishment Republicans. I think they will find this an irritation that will not go away.
When we eventually have a recession, Trumps popularity will fall as it always does. If it starts before the mid-terms Republicans will suffer larger losses than they expect today and so will be grumpy and unwilling to roll over for him on things like Russia. The second half of Trump's term could see the return of gridlock despite nominal Republican control of all three branches of government.
So if I were advising Trump I would tell him his power is at a maximum now, he needs to use it to get his agenda passed first, before spending political capital on theirs.
Reagan appeared to get pretty chummy with Gorbachev back in the day. It didn't hurt Reagan back then. Keep in mind, we were still a Cold War society back then. We watched the Berlin Wall come down and watched later on as the Soviet Union fell apart. Your advice would be more suitable for someone like Obama. Obama came in with the maximum already sitting in place and could only loose seats. Trump still has room to grow if he plays his cards right. How many Democrats played it safe and voted for Clinton instead of taking a chance on voting for Trump? I'd say a sizable portion stuck with Hilary that is available to support Trump.
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(01-14-2017, 09:00 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (01-14-2017, 09:35 AM)Mikebert Wrote: (01-11-2017, 08:17 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: The Democratic party is going down because it appears to be loaded with people and controlled by people like you. I feel bad for the regular Democrats. The only ominous resemblance that I see is the Democratic party seems to be a lot like Yugoslavia.
It is not fun to be a regular Democrat in flyover country nowadays. Although I wouldn't count them out quite yet, people were saying the same things about Republicans in 2009. Obama built the current Republican party by being alien to a lot of non-liberal white folks. Frankly Trump is just as alien to the non-conservative non-white folks in the country, and he is not all that popular with the remainder. Trump is likely to build the Democratic party as Obama did the Republicans.
Right now, Trump commands the Republican base and the GOP establishment will trend lightly. Trump is perfectly willing to throw all sort of bones to these guys: tax cuts, ending Obamacare, deregulating Wall Street, genuflecting toward Israel, unremitting hostility towards Iran. But there are a couple of things Trump ran on that they dislike. One is trade and immigration restriction. They are likely to give Trump something here because he DID run (and win) on it and they KNOW the base really wants the latter (and Trump wants the former).
But then then there is the Russia thing. Trump really seems to like Russia and wants to cut them all sorts of slack for no reason discernable to establishment Republicans. I think they will find this an irritation that will not go away.
When we eventually have a recession, Trumps popularity will fall as it always does. If it starts before the mid-terms Republicans will suffer larger losses than they expect today and so will be grumpy and unwilling to roll over for him on things like Russia. The second half of Trump's term could see the return of gridlock despite nominal Republican control of all three branches of government.
So if I were advising Trump I would tell him his power is at a maximum now, he needs to use it to get his agenda passed first, before spending political capital on theirs.
Reagan appeared to get pretty chummy with Gorbachev back in the day. It didn't hurt Reagan back then. Keep in mind, we were still a Cold War society back then. We watched the Berlin Wall come down and watched later on as the Soviet Union fell apart. Your advice would be more suitable for someone like Obama. Obama came in with the maximum already sitting in place and could only loose seats. Trump still has room to grow if he plays his cards right. How many Democrats played it safe and voted for Clinton instead of taking a chance on voting for Trump? I'd say a sizable portion stuck with Hilary that is available to support Trump.
1. I'll take the moral compass of Mikhail Gorbachev to that of Vladimir Putin any day. In fact I woulr prefer that there were a Soviet Union with a Gorbachev-like leader than a post-Soviet world with someone with an admiration of the tsars for their opulence and the Brezhnev-era enforcers for their brutality.
Gorbachev tried to get good will and time in exchange for allowing the Soviet bloc to go its own way.
Most of us were glad to see the Berlin Wall go down. The demise of the Soviet Union? Only in the three tiny Baltic Republics are political realities unambiguously better than they were under Gorbachev. I had misgivings after the Baltic states seceded from the Soviet Union.
2. Gorbachev operated with the attitude, "Do something really stupid -- and die"... which explains his policy on Iraq after Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait. There were Soviet technicians in Iraq and Gorbachev wanted them out quickly and safely, and not used as hostages. The rest of the world concurred. After the First Gulf War he went along with the United Nations on long-range missiles, perhaps because those missiles could reach well into the Soviet Union of the time.
3. I would prefer that a somewhat-free Russia or Soviet Union be present as a safety valve now that we have the threat of a dictatorial President. I do not trust Putin with human rights.
4. Donald Trump will push a speculative boom for which Americans are unready... and it will implode faster than the corrupt boom of the Double-Zero Decade. It's hard to win re-election in a recession. Trump/GOP policies will aggravate the mass pain of an economic downturn.
The expedient of backing the banks, which learned nothing from the economic meltdown of 2007-2009, may not be so effective this time. Americans are much angrier and more polarized. Repression of dissent will backfire.
5. In other countries, pols like Donald Trump fall in military coups. "But this is America", you say? We have never had a national leader at all like Donald Trump in any living person's memory.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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(01-14-2017, 09:00 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: Reagan appeared to get pretty chummy with Gorbachev back in the day. It didn't hurt Reagan back then. Keep in mind, we were still a Cold War society back then. We watched the Berlin Wall come down and watched later on as the Soviet Union fell apart. Your advice would be more suitable for someone like Obama. Obama came in with the maximum already sitting in place and could only loose seats. Trump still has room to grow if he plays his cards right. How many Democrats played it safe and voted for Clinton instead of taking a chance on voting for Trump? I'd say a sizable portion stuck with Hilary that is available to support Trump.
Trump has a huge unfavorablity score for an entering President, and a big chunk of it is due to the people who are still saying WTF. I don't see that getting better, since he doesn't seem to get better. I don't see a wave of voters flocking to Trump who haven't done so already.
He may still win a second term, and he may get to derail the post-war social compact, but people like Warren and you will not like if it happens.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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The Democrats Will Win In 2020
