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Election Night 2020 thread
#1
The map... well, data for it. 

https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusm...&NE3=0;1;6

... and the map 
The 2020 Presidential election. This will largely (most likely) be filled in on November 4:

[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]



Definitive wins:

Solid D (maroon) / solid R (navy) -- margin 10% or higher. 
Strong D (red) / strong R (blue) -- margin 5% or higher but under 10%.
Bare D (pink) / bare R (light blue) -- margin under 5%

Not decided:

conflicting data: white
D lead (pale orange); R lead (pale green) 

Put the data in the image and you will have a map. Note that I have extracted this from a blog that uses the old red for Democrats and blue for Republicans. "Red" used to imply the more socialistic party and "blue" the more capitalist party.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#2
When polls officially close:

[Image: pe2016USA_tz.png]
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#3
Approval rating in June of election year via @CNN:

74% - Johnson '64
71% - Eisenhower '56
59% - Nixon '72
58% - Clinton '96
55% - Reagan '84
52% - Obama '12
49% - W Bush '04
45% - *Ford '76
38% - Trump '20
38% - *Carter '80
37% - *HW Bush '92

*lost re-election bid
9:10 AM · Jun 8, 2020


(I now predict an asterisk before Trump's name when this electoral mess is all over).
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#4
These days we can expect the Republican to start out leading the popular vote, thanks to Indiana and Kentucky. It will be hard to close the gap, but it should close and reverse in a few hours, and once the west comes in, Biden will build a sizeable lead in the popular vote.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#5
The Lichtman Test:

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Six keys against the Incumbent's Party give an overwhelming chance of failure.

This time:

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

These five keys favor the incumbent President (although I would interpret any significant challenge to renomination by serious challengers to have a lower threshold for an incumbent than for an incumbent's Party. What isn't serious? A ludicrous extremist such as David Duke or the late Lyn LaRouche or a prospective nominee with a foot in the grave (Harold Stassen a couple of times). If an incumbent who barely won faces a more-than-nominal opponent in the primaries gets a significant number of votes in any state, then such suggests the possibility that significant dissent exists within the Incumbent's Party.

Thus "Democrats for Nixon" in 1972 and "Republican Voters Against Trump" indicate trouble for the Party nominee that endures a schism.

Keys turning against Trump:

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

Eight turn against him.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#6
(11-01-2020, 01:14 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: These days we can expect the Republican to start out leading the popular vote, thanks to Indiana and Kentucky. It will be hard to close the gap, but it should close and reverse in a few hours, and once the west comes in, Biden will build a sizeable lead in the popular vote.

One thing about Indiana: Over a full century, no Republican nominee for President has won the Electoral College (and this includes the two times in which the Republican nominee won the Electoral College without winning the popular vote) without winning Indiana by at least 10%. Indiana is much more rural than neighboring Michigan and Ohio, and the early closing of Indiana polls strongly favors the rural vote.  Indiana may be becoming more suburban as Greater Indianapolis spills into Hamilton County

So what can I say if Trump is winning Indiana by 7% and Indiana gets called early? Biden wins.

OK, so what happens if Indiana becomes more urban (and Suburbia is beginning to take on urban characteristics) Aside from one's employer, the biggest capitalist in most people's lives is a landlord generally perceived as a passive investor who charges what the traffic will bear. Suburbanites are increasingly renters, and renters don't have as much of a stake in free-wheeling capitalism as do home owners. A state like Arkansas or Alabama may be dreadfully poor, but people are much more likely to own their home (even if it is 'only' a flimsy shack or a decrepit trailer). Landlords are not known so much for innovation as they are for gouging.

It isn't quite fair, as landlords are conduits of financing costs, insurance, taxes, and utility bills. Still, the easiest way to have gotten rich in California is to have inherited interest in rental property, which is less intellectually-demanding than being a software engineer or a creative person who creates wealth as intellectual property. Of course one must be born into the right family, which counts for much more in contemporary America than it used to.

...The divide between R and D is more rural-urban than of income, ethnicity, or education. Much of it is a divide between homeowner and renter, which explains why Biden has a chance in Georgia and Texas, but not in Alabama or Arkansas. Renters have a dimmer view of capitalism than do home-owners, and people in the giant cities of Georgia and Texas are much more likely to be renters. It also explains why the only "D" patches in Tennessee are Davidson (Nashville) and Shelby (Memphis) counties. Rural parts of Illinois are as Republican as any other part of America, and Illinois aside from Greater Chicago would be highly R.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#7
(11-01-2020, 01:29 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(11-01-2020, 01:14 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: These days we can expect the Republican to start out leading the popular vote, thanks to Indiana and Kentucky. It will be hard to close the gap, but it should close and reverse in a few hours, and once the west comes in, Biden will build a sizeable lead in the popular vote.

One thing about Indiana: Over a full century, no Republican nominee for President has won the Electoral College (and this includes the two times in which the Republican nominee won the Electoral College without winning the popular vote) without winning Indiana by at least 10%. Indiana is much more rural than neighboring Michigan and Ohio, and the early closing of Indiana polls strongly favors the rural vote.  Indiana may be becoming more suburban as Greater Indianapolis spills into Hamilton County

So what can I say if Trump is winning Indiana by 7% and Indiana gets called early? Biden wins.

OK, so what happens if Indiana becomes more urban (and Suburbia is beginning to take on urban characteristics) Aside from one's employer, the biggest capitalist in most people's lives is a landlord generally perceived as a passive investor who charges what the traffic will bear.  Suburbanites are increasingly renters, and renters don't have as much of a stake in free-wheeling capitalism as do home owners. A state like  Arkansas or Alabama may be dreadfully poor, but people are much more likely to own their home (even if it is 'only' a flimsy shack or a decrepit trailer). Landlords are not known so much for innovation as they are for gouging.

It isn't quite fair, as landlords are conduits of financing costs, insurance, taxes, and utility bills. Still, the easiest way to have gotten rich in California is to have inherited interest in rental property, which is less intellectually-demanding than being a software engineer or a creative person who creates wealth as intellectual property. Of course one must be born into the right family, which counts for much more in contemporary America than it used to.

...The divide between R and D is more rural-urban than of income, ethnicity, or education. Much of it is a divide between homeowner and renter, which explains why Biden has a chance in Georgia and Texas, but not in Alabama or Arkansas. Renters have a dimmer view of capitalism than do home-owners, and people in the giant cities of Georgia and Texas are much more likely to be renters.  It also explains why the only "D" patches in Tennessee are Davidson (Nashville) and Shelby (Memphis) counties. Rural parts of Illinois are as Republican as any other part of America, and Illinois aside from Greater Chicago would be highly R.
Where Indiana is concerned, lest not forget the heavily urbanized northwest corner of the state just outside Chicago, where steel mills dominated for many years. The northern parts of the state also contains South Bend and Fort Wayne.  And much if not most of Illinois outside of greater Chicago and St. Louis suburbs is largely rural as well.
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#8
(11-01-2020, 06:58 PM)beechnut79 Wrote:
(11-01-2020, 01:29 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(11-01-2020, 01:14 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: These days we can expect the Republican to start out leading the popular vote, thanks to Indiana and Kentucky. It will be hard to close the gap, but it should close and reverse in a few hours, and once the west comes in, Biden will build a sizeable lead in the popular vote.

One thing about Indiana: Over a full century, no Republican nominee for President has won the Electoral College (and this includes the two times in which the Republican nominee won the Electoral College without winning the popular vote) without winning Indiana by at least 10%. Indiana is much more rural than neighboring Michigan and Ohio, and the early closing of Indiana polls strongly favors the rural vote.  Indiana may be becoming more suburban as Greater Indianapolis spills into Hamilton County

So what can I say if Trump is winning Indiana by 7% and Indiana gets called early? Biden wins.

OK, so what happens if Indiana becomes more urban (and Suburbia is beginning to take on urban characteristics) Aside from one's employer, the biggest capitalist in most people's lives is a landlord generally perceived as a passive investor who charges what the traffic will bear.  Suburbanites are increasingly renters, and renters don't have as much of a stake in free-wheeling capitalism as do home owners. A state like  Arkansas or Alabama may be dreadfully poor, but people are much more likely to own their home (even if it is 'only' a flimsy shack or a decrepit trailer). Landlords are not known so much for innovation as they are for gouging.

It isn't quite fair, as landlords are conduits of financing costs, insurance, taxes, and utility bills. Still, the easiest way to have gotten rich in California is to have inherited interest in rental property, which is less intellectually-demanding than being a software engineer or a creative person who creates wealth as intellectual property. Of course one must be born into the right family, which counts for much more in contemporary America than it used to.

...The divide between R and D is more rural-urban than of income, ethnicity, or education. Much of it is a divide between homeowner and renter, which explains why Biden has a chance in Georgia and Texas, but not in Alabama or Arkansas. Renters have a dimmer view of capitalism than do home-owners, and people in the giant cities of Georgia and Texas are much more likely to be renters.  It also explains why the only "D" patches in Tennessee are Davidson (Nashville) and Shelby (Memphis) counties. Rural parts of Illinois are as Republican as any other part of America, and Illinois aside from Greater Chicago would be highly R.
Where Indiana is concerned, lest not forget the heavily urbanized northwest corner of the state just outside Chicago, where steel mills dominated for many years. The northern parts of the state also contains South Bend and Fort Wayne.  And much if not most of Illinois outside of greater Chicago and St. Louis suburbs is largely rural as well.

Northwest Indiana comes in an hour later than the rest of the state, according to a TV report I saw, so the first returns will be about 10% Republican. It is notoriously hard to overcome an early lead in a popular vote count, but it will end up with Biden well in the lead. The Northeast will provide some early electoral and popular vote power, balanced out by the southern states which are counted quicker. If the southeast states tilt Democratic, the Biden electoral vote could start to rise dramatically, as the close vote there is decided along with the faster-reporting west coast after 11 PM EST.

Ethnicity and education are still major elements of the divide, although rural/urban seems to be the biggest factor. There's a lot of overlap in these 3 categories.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#9
For those that I have invited from another Forum (Leip's Election Atlas) in case of a breakdown of the other site, I greet you:

Note that the composition of the vote by age matters greatly. People over 55 (and I see no cause to distinguish such people in their voting pattern) are about 5% more R than D in their voting in a normal year. People under 40 are about 20% more D than R in their voting in a normal year. People over 55 are the bulk of people who quit voting (death and debility), and people under 40 are the bulk of new voters. Figure that the average voter starts voting at age 22 and quits voting at age 82 (people who live to adulthood in America typically live into their eighties), and about 1.6% of the electorate leaves the electorate every year, almost exclusively in ages 55+, when death rates soar.

Generational identity is as much environment as almost anything else. People 65 and 25 have seen a very different world.

The shift between partisan affinity between old and young voters is now about 25%, so from 2016 you can assume that if nothing changes other than the generational composition of voters, then Trump loses because the vote will have swung 1.6% away from the Republican Party.

For anyone to believe that President Trump will win the Electoral College in 2020, one must assume that he has changed voting patterns due to some great achievement that makes him more popular. This crude estimate allows me to predict that Biden will swing Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Florida away from Trump, but do nothing else. This would make the election, if nothing else happened:

[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]


8% or more -- saturation 7
4% to 7.99% -- saturation 5
1.5% to 3.99% -- saturation 3
under 1.5% -- saturation 2


Biden/Harris 307
Trump/Pence 230


Paradoxically the old pattern of no more than five states changing from one side to the other would hold -- but these four states comprise 75 electoral votes, nearly one-seventh of the total vote in the Electoral College.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#10
The fundamental beginning of the 2020 Presidential campaign -- states and districts within 10% of being even in the 2016 Presidential election:


2016 result among states decided by 10% or less:


[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]


8% or more -- saturation 7
4% to 7.99% -- saturation 5
1.5% to 2.99% -- saturation 3
under 1.5% -- saturation 2

States in gray look too far away to be affected by a shift in votes from 2016 to polling in 2018. Should any such state go into play, then differences between 2016 and 2020 are profound in the extreme. This range of states is between 203 and 413 electoral votes for a Democrat (and 125 and 335 for Trump). Assuming that no state that Trump lost by 10% or more in 2016 will vote for him in 2020, President Trump has at most a chance for being re-elected much like Obama in 2012 -- but he can lose as badly as GHWB did in 1992.

Remember that if such a state as Oregon goes into play for Trump, then the Democrat is in supreme trouble and at risk of losing a landslide. On the other side, if a state such as Missouri goes into play, then Trump is at risk of a landslide loss. Because there is no distinction between winning with 270 and 335 (or 413, or even 538 electoral votes)... the significance of a landslide win or loss is coattails in Congress

This is still relevant 43 months after the 2016 election and 5 months before the 2020 election.  

..................................................

Furthermore, the electoral histories of the states are relevant over the last five Presidential elections. All but the 2008 election were close, and I am not going to show anything before 2000 because several states that used to be reliably D in their voting are quite the opposite now.

How states have voted from 2000 on:


[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=2;1;7]

all 5 for the Republican
4 R, 1 D
3 R, 2D  
3 D, 2 R
4 D, 1 R
all five for the Democrat


Historical patterns matter greatly -- until they don't.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#11
Just popping in to say to you all best of luck for the election. I am hoping for the very best result for you. Dovidenia (goodbye in slovak).

Yes i am coming along slowly but surely with the language now this kiwi is in slovakia.
1984 Apollonian Civic
ISFP - The Artist.






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#12
[Image: Nov03.png]

From electoral-vote.com: polls as of November 3. 

Firm colors show the leader up by at least 10%; paler shades over 5% but less than 10%; white with pale borders under 5% leads ... white is a tie. Don't worry; it will all soon be like a preview show for a sporting event; you will forget everything that you saw on the preview show as the game unfolds. For that reason I do not watch pregame shows for sporting events. All the effort that any of you put into watching polls will start becoming moot.   

216 strong Biden
56 likely Biden 
76 barely Biden
18 indeterminate
44 barely Trump
42 likely Trump
83 strong Trump

2 -- ME-02 and NE-02

Electoral-Vote .com does not distinguish the historically-wayward Second Districts of Maine and Nebraska from the states at large. Both, I think, are "barely Biden".

With "strong" and "likely" Biden alone, Biden can win 272 (I consider ME-02 "barely Biden")  electoral votes. Trump has to win everything in red, the tie in Ohio, and every state described as "Barely Biden" while picking off one state in the "likely Biden" category. If this polling composite is correct, and every state outside the margin of error (4%) goes as expected, then Biden wins. It is that simple.

A caveat: this is how things looked in 2016:

[Image: Nov08.png]

Things are marginally better for Biden than they were for Hillary Clinton. Don't pop any champagne corks yet if you are a Democrat or a Trump-hater.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#13
Remember: electoral politics is a timed contest. Undoing an opponent's lead is far easier to do the further out one is from Election Day.

Time to election |1 point|5 points||10 points|20 points|
one day............. |...64%|....95%|.....99.7%|.99.999%|
one week........... |...60%|....89%|.......98%|...99.97%|
one month......... |...57%|....81%|.......95%|.....99.7%|
three months..... |...55%|....72%|.......87%|........98%|
six months..........|...53%|....66%|.......79%|.......93%|
one year.............|....52%|...59%|.......67%|.......81%|
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#14
2020 elections for the US Senate, because the Senate also matters:

[Image: genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]

yellow: no 2020 Senate race
orange: one or more elections subject to a runoff election

pale red -- Democratic hold
dark red -- Democratic gain
pale green -- Independent hold
pale blue -- Republican hold
dark blue -- Republican gain

*Georgia has two Senate elections. Dark blue will be for two Democratic gains, white for a split, and pale red will be for two Republican holds. Those are the possibilities.

Should one Senate seat of Georgia go D while the other is undecided, then Georgia will be in light blue while the other is undecided.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#15
The US Senate, because it also matters greatly:

[Image: Nov03.png] 

Georgia has two Senate seats up for grabs, one in a special election. 


A map that I can modify as results come in. Remember: it is red for Democrats and blue for Republicans, accommodating the pattern of Leip's Election Atlas, in case people will be looking here.

[Image: genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]

yellow: no 2020 Senate race
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#16
In-person polls have already closed in Indiana and Kentucky in the Eastern Time Zone in both states. Neither state announces any results from precincts until the in-person vote closes in the entire state.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#17
The AP has called Kentucky (8 for Trump) and Vermont (3 for Biden). The evening is young. Trump has an early lead, which usually happens, in Virginia before the urban vote that decides the state for the Democrat since 2008.

https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusm...&NE3=0;1;6



[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]



Definitive wins:

Solid D (maroon) / solid R (navy) -- margin 10% or higher. 
Strong D (red) / strong R (blue) -- margin 5% or higher but under 10%.
Bare D (pink) / bare R (light blue) -- margin under 5%

Not decided:

conflicting data: white
D lead (pale orange); R lead (pale green)
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#18
Mark Warner is a quick call to win re-election to the US Senate race in Virginia.

[Image: genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]

yellow: no 2020 Senate race
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#19
Georgia results will not be in tonight because of a water-main break in Fulton County that interferes with the counting in Greater Atlanta.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#20
7:30 PM... North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia. West Virginia is a win for Trump and the incumbent Republican Senator.

[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]

The AP calls Virginia for Biden at 7:39 PM, which is much earlier than usual for the state. Virginia is usually a call late in the evening, and this bodes very ill for President Trump. Few expected Trump to win Virginia, but not this badly. Indiana is not yet called, and a slow call of Indiana suggests trouble for Trump. Neither is South Carolina called yet, and it usually is called early.

Biden 16
Trump 13

I'm going to show the Senate map with the Presidential map from hereon. 

[Image: genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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