[Ready Player One] - next Prophet generation speculation?

[Lemanic]

So as a guy who loves our work here, I got very moved by this trailer.






Would this be the next Prophet generation in action?

[pbrower2a]

has or never gets. Here's a response by someone who will be a very old idealist  (age 90 or so) at the time depicted:

I expect the next Idealist generation to rebel against the insipid culture of the High, part of which will be the grossly-unrealistic, and even fraudulent "virtual reality". This generation may prefer the formalism of computer-generated art and the insipid unreality of virtual reality. Unlike Boomers who became the market for this:



they will relish acoustic treatments.

If I am any indication, many will rediscover classical music as an alternative to the commercial schlock that overwhelms a society in the  High and that emerges as fads in the Awakening. Although the technology of the LP record was essential for making very long works of music listenable on the gramophone, it was Boomers who made such masters as Bruckner and Mahler household names instead of the perceived 'psychotic freaks who wrote music for neurotics' and expanded the market for opera. Opera in America used to have a loyal audience in America of Italian-Americans but relatively few others. That loyal audience has expanded.

Boomers also became an audience for authentic performance of early instruments and early practice:



OK, so long pieces of classical music still require a long attention span, a trait that one either has or never gets.

It could be a trend that seems either fussy, primitive, or anachronistic. But note well: a love for the archaic has always been a sign of intelligent sophistication.

[Kinser79]

(07-23-2017, 07:45 AM)Lemanic Wrote: So as a guy who loves our work here, I got very moved by this trailer.


<video clip redacted>

Would this be the next Prophet generation in action?

Unlikely. From the outlook of the movie being presented by the trailer it appears to be liner in out look. As someone who has some understanding of S&H theory you should understand that history and generations are cyclical. The current drive is to put everything online, to have computer generated art and music, to lose oneself in virtual reality because the real reality is unacceptable, depressing, or whatever.

As such, in the 2T we should expect the new prophets to completely reject that.

(07-23-2017, 09:56 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: has or never gets. Here's a response by someone who will be a very old idealist  (age 90 or so) at the time depicted:

I expect the next Idealist generation to rebel against the insipid culture of the High, part of which will be the grossly-unrealistic, and even fraudulent "virtual reality". This generation may prefer the formalism of computer-generated art and the insipid unreality of virtual reality. Unlike Boomers who became the market for this:



they will relish acoustic treatments.

If I am any indication, many will rediscover classical music as an alternative to the commercial schlock that overwhelms a society in the  High and that emerges as fads in the Awakening. Although the technology of the LP record was essential for making very long works of music listenable on the gramophone, it was Boomers who made such masters as Bruckner and Mahler household names instead of the perceived 'psychotic freaks who wrote music for neurotics' and expanded the market for opera. Opera in America used to have a loyal audience in America of Italian-Americans but relatively few others. That loyal audience has expanded.

Boomers also became an audience for authentic performance of early instruments and early practice:



OK, so long pieces of classical music still require a long attention span, a trait that one either has or never gets.

It could be a trend that seems either fussy, primitive, or anachronistic. But note well: a love for the archaic has always been a sign of intelligent sophistication.

All of those are possible. However, I think the arts and music will be less important to the new prophets as opposed to political and religious ideologies and philosophies. They will be the first generation in several saecula to be totally immersed in a Mega-Crisis.

[pbrower2a]

(07-24-2017, 01:01 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(07-23-2017, 07:45 AM)Lemanic Wrote: So as a guy who loves our work here, I got very moved by this trailer.


<video clip redacted>

Would this be the next Prophet generation in action?

Unlikely.  From the outlook of the movie being presented by the trailer it appears to be liner in out look.  As someone who has some understanding of S&H theory you should understand that history and generations are cyclical.  The current drive is to put everything online, to have computer generated art and music, to lose oneself in virtual reality because the real reality is unacceptable, depressing, or whatever.

As such, in the 2T we should expect the new prophets to completely reject that.

(07-23-2017, 09:56 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: Here's a response by someone who will be a very old idealist  (age 90 or so) at the time depicted:

I expect the next Idealist generation to rebel against the insipid culture of the High, part of which will be the grossly-unrealistic, and even fraudulent "virtual reality". This generation may prefer the formalism of computer-generated art and the insipid unreality of virtual reality. Unlike Boomers who became the market for this:



they will relish acoustic treatments.

If I am any indication, many will rediscover classical music as an alternative to the commercial schlock that overwhelms a society in the  High and that emerges as fads in the Awakening. Although the technology of the LP record was essential for making very long works of music listenable on the gramophone, it was Boomers who made such masters as Bruckner and Mahler household names instead of the perceived 'psychotic freaks who wrote music for neurotics' and expanded the market for opera. Opera in America used to have a loyal audience in America of Italian-Americans but relatively few others. That loyal audience has expanded.

Boomers also became an audience for authentic performance of early instruments and early practice:



OK, so long pieces of classical music still require a long attention span, a trait that one either has or never gets.

It could be a trend that seems either fussy, primitive, or anachronistic. But note well: a love for the archaic has always been a sign of intelligent sophistication.

All of those are possible.  However, I think the arts and music will be less important to the new prophets as opposed to political and religious ideologies and philosophies.  They will be the first generation in several saecula to be totally immersed in a Mega-Crisis.

Politics will be important, and politics will often merge with artistic expression.

[Kinser79]

(07-25-2017, 12:01 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: Politics will be important, and politics will often merge with artistic expression.

By and large yes.  But I think expecting the next era of prophets to come up with those modes of art is wrong thinking.  Initially it is Artist generations which develop new art forms.  The major contributions from the next prophet generation will likely be in the arena of political philosophy.

[David Horn]

(07-26-2017, 02:58 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(07-25-2017, 12:01 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: Politics will be important, and politics will often merge with artistic expression.

By and large yes.  But I think expecting the next era of prophets to come up with those modes of art is wrong thinking.  Initially it is Artist generations which develop new art forms.  The major contributions from the next prophet generation will likely be in the arena of political philosophy.

My money is on a transformation of the economy, with the neo-Prophets working to tear down the capitalist system, but not quite up to setting its replacement in place.  That will be the work of the next Civics  ... and nothing any of us will get the opportunity to witness.

[Ragnarök_62]

(07-26-2017, 11:32 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: And again, the next prophets are but a gleam in the eyes of the 2nd wave Millennials. The first ones will be born during the Climax of the current 4T. I'm still placing my bets on Total War and if there is a Civil War here it will be in relation to the Total War as the Spanish Civil War was in relation to WW2.

Then, if parts of the US can manage to not get sintered, Xer's would be the ones, like the Gilded before that pick up the scraps and move on.  Botched 4T's do that stuff you know.

[Kinser79]

(07-26-2017, 04:54 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-26-2017, 02:58 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(07-25-2017, 12:01 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: Politics will be important, and politics will often merge with artistic expression.

By and large yes.  But I think expecting the next era of prophets to come up with those modes of art is wrong thinking.  Initially it is Artist generations which develop new art forms.  The major contributions from the next prophet generation will likely be in the arena of political philosophy.

My money is on a transformation of the economy, with the neo-Prophets working to tear down the capitalist system, but not quite up to setting its replacement in place.  That will be the work of the next Civics  ... and nothing any of us will get the opportunity to witness.

People have been plotting and planning for the overthrow of the capitalist system since at least 1848.  It hasn't happened yet, and is unlikely to unless a post scarcity economy develops, which is possible, it just requires an essentially free nearly limitless energy source(s) to pull off.

Needless to say I don't foresee that happening.

[David Horn]

(07-26-2017, 07:14 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(07-26-2017, 04:54 PM)David Horn Wrote: My money is on a transformation of the economy, with the neo-Prophets working to tear down the capitalist system, but not quite up to setting its replacement in place.  That will be the work of the next Civics  ... and nothing any of us will get the opportunity to witness.

People have been plotting and planning for the overthrow of the capitalist system since at least 1848.  It hasn't happened yet, and is unlikely to unless a post scarcity economy develops, which is possible, it just requires an essentially free nearly limitless energy source(s) to pull off.

Needless to say I don't foresee that happening.

From my POV, I see both happening within the next several decades.  Autonomous machines are already a reality, and ones that create others will make production work a dead issue.  Energy is already moving toward the slightly-less-than-infinite paradigm, and fusion will complete the process, probably by the 2070s or so.  But long before we get to that point, there will already be a huge excess in idle human capital, as they call wage slaves in the capitalist world.  Unlike machines that never bitch, some serious blowback can be expected from the sidelined many.  It's already happening. 

I would love see those "interesting times", but I'm already 70.  Millies and Homies will still be around, as will a bunch of old fossilized Xers.  Feel free to live long enough to be one of them.  If I could, I certainly would.

[Warren Dew]

(07-26-2017, 04:54 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-26-2017, 02:58 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(07-25-2017, 12:01 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: Politics will be important, and politics will often merge with artistic expression.

By and large yes.  But I think expecting the next era of prophets to come up with those modes of art is wrong thinking.  Initially it is Artist generations which develop new art forms.  The major contributions from the next prophet generation will likely be in the arena of political philosophy.

My money is on a transformation of the economy, with the neo-Prophets working to tear down the capitalist system, but not quite up to setting its replacement in place.  That will be the work of the next Civics  ... and nothing any of us will get the opportunity to witness.

None of us?  We have the science for immortality now; we're only a decade or two from the technology, plus however much the crisis sets us back.  The millenials here have a good chance.

[Kinser79]

(07-27-2017, 11:43 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-26-2017, 07:14 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(07-26-2017, 04:54 PM)David Horn Wrote: My money is on a transformation of the economy, with the neo-Prophets working to tear down the capitalist system, but not quite up to setting its replacement in place.  That will be the work of the next Civics  ... and nothing any of us will get the opportunity to witness.

People have been plotting and planning for the overthrow of the capitalist system since at least 1848.  It hasn't happened yet, and is unlikely to unless a post scarcity economy develops, which is possible, it just requires an essentially free nearly limitless energy source(s) to pull off.

Needless to say I don't foresee that happening.

From my POV, I see both happening within the next several decades.  Autonomous machines are already a reality, and ones that create others will make production work a dead issue.  Energy is already moving toward the slightly-less-than-infinite paradigm, and fusion will complete the process, probably by the 2070s or so.  But long before we get to that point, there will already be a huge excess in idle human capital, as they call wage slaves in the capitalist world.  Unlike machines that never bitch, some serious blowback can be expected from the sidelined many.  It's already happening. 

I would love see those "interesting times", but I'm already 70.  Millies and Homies will still be around, as will a bunch of old fossilized Xers.  Feel free to live long enough to be one of them.  If I could, I certainly would.

1.  Let us assume that AI and self-replicating machines become a reality.  What is to stop these machines from eliminating humanity?  Absolutely nothing.  After all humans displace animals all the time.  Do we do so out of malice?  No.  We do so because they are in the way.  What is to stop these machines from displacing our entire civilization because we're in the way. 

2.  I'm not convinced that humans are capable of creating a machine smarter than themselves so I'm not concerned about the singularity happening.  But automation has been happening since the industrial revolution and there has always been work.  There will always be work.  In the absence of most people producing something be it tangible or intangible all economic systems here-to-devised break down rapidly.

3.  Muh Nuclear Fusion.  When I was in high school they were saying the 2050s.  Twenty years on, and the date has been moved 20 years.  I don't think this is a coincidence.

I don't think we can solve our energy problems unless you can address liquid fuels issues for transport.  Electric motors won't work for shipping or air transport and their application in personal conveyances is limited at best.  Even so, electricity generation isn't the issue, we have nearly limitless resources for that, we jut need to rapidly deploy thorium fission reactors.


In the presence of factors 1, 2, and 3 we see that the rosy picture painted never develops.  Rather, what I foresee is if we do not begin to rapidly develop and deploy alternative energy generation based on thorium fission, re-urbanization of the population, and an acceptance of some inefficiencies to maintain an economy is a "great leap backwards".  I imagine that the 2070s will have more in common with the 1670s than the 1970s.

I could be wrong about that, in fact I hope I am.  As for living to see it.  I probably will, if there is a god he seems like he would be the kind of bastard to force me to live an unnaturally long life.  My grandmother lived to be in her late 80s as did most of my great aunts and uncles on the maternal side of my family.  Paternal side is more iffy.  My paternal grandfather didn't have a natural death, and my paternal grandmother had juvenile diabetes so died fairly young.