Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

(09-18-2017, 01:36 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Your assumption is likely wrong; China through the ages has been
> an agricultural country surrounded by nonagricultural regions, so
> China could annex land, increase its food productivity using
> agriculture, and assimilate the population without any
> extermination.

This is a highly idealistic and sanguine view of China's policy. In
recent times, China has annexed Tibet and Xinjiang, and has flooded
these regions with Han Chinese in order to do what you suggest,
"assimilate the population without any extermination."

But that clearly is not working. Tibetans and Uighurs are not
being assimilated. So in my view, China is headed inevitably
toward extermination or, at best, assimilation by force, which
is a variation of extermination.

(09-18-2017, 01:36 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Nor is it at all "typical of Chinese thinking" today: Chinese
> thinking today still ranks development of production highest among
> solutions, for example with their active development of
> alternative power sources. The South China Sea is the only place
> where China is showing any tendency toward expansionism, and no
> one lives there to be exterminated.

So what? China is annexing traditional fishing grounds of other
countries, and regions containing oil and gas reserves of other
countries, and China has made it clear that it will kill anyone who
opposes them. It's extermination by a different methodology.

In 2006, I quoted Sha Zukang, China's UN ambassador, saying the
following, which I transcribed from a BBC interview:

China's UN ambassador Sha Zukang, 2006 Wrote:> "The moment that Taiwan declares independence, supported by
> whomever, China will have no choice but to [use] whatever means
> available to my government. Nobody should have any illusions on
> that. ...

> It's not a matter of how big Taiwan is, but for China, one INCH of
> the territory is more valuable than the LIVES of our people."

> [With regard to the U.S.'s constant criticism of China's rapid
> militarization:] It's better for the U.S. to shut up, keep quiet.
> That's much, much better. China's population is 6 times or 5
> times the United States. Why blame China? No. forget it. It's
> high time to shut up. It's a nation's sovereign right to do what
> is good for them. But don't tell us what's good for China. Thank
> you very much."

So in fact annexation and extermination is typical of Chinese people.
These are people with a completely different view of the world than
Americans. When Sha says, "one INCH of the territory is more valuable
than the LIVES of our people," he's also saying "we're willing to
exterminate people, even our own people, to get more territory."

From China's world view, there are too many people and and there's too
little land, so there's absolutely nothing wrong with killing off a
few million people. For China, it's perfectly OK as a way to redress
the balance, just as good as "development of production," and equal in
morality. China's leaders might say that if people are going to die
anyway from starvation and famine, then why not kill them off right
away? Even better, let's kill off the people that we (China's
leaders) don't like, so that the people that we do like will have more
food. (Incidentally, this is similar to policy recommendations put
forth by Malthus.)

This is a cultural view deeply ingrained in the Chinese psyche, as
illustrated by the fact that, for millennia, the Chinese have
considered Sun Tzu's The Art of War to be one of greatest literary
achievements of all times.

As I've said before, people my age have wondered our whole lives how
it was possible for Hitler to so completely fool the British people.
Reading your posts answers that question completely.

[Cynic Hero '86]

Boomers like JohnX again criticizes Russian, Chinese, Indian, Syrian and Burmese actions regarding minority populations and disputes with their neighbors. Yet the boomers demanding US intervention are the same boomers who never get the hint that at no point has Russia, Syria, China, India, or Burma/Myanmar asked us to intervene. That the US is involved is purely to the boomer leaders extreme selfishness, in these particular cases do to the boomers growing what appears to be "sticking their nose in other peoples business" lobe, a peculiar ossification of the brain that is largely unique to baby boomers.

At no point has Russia asked that the US participate in Ukraine, At no point has Syria's government asked the US to intervene, At no point has China asked the US to patrol the south china sea, at no point has Burma asked the US to send peacekeepers, at no point has India requested US aid to the strife on the frontier of Burma or even asked for US troops to observed the Chinese Border. All of these interventions or proposed interventions are due purely to the SELFISHNESS of the boomers and their acolytes.

Regarding the response to 9/11, even though this has nothing to do with the subjects mentioned recently, the war on terror would have been over and won had boomers not been SELFISH and had they simply began retiring in the early 2000s like they were supposed to. Then competent political and Military leadership would have won the war on terror and also strengthened deterrence against both Russia and China as well.

This is what boomers took away from Xers and Millies (focus on the attacking soldiers):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktcXN7fKiQs

another example (look at the clip especially from 9:00 to the end of the clip, look especially at the soldier around 10:35 to 10:45 of the clip, THAT is what selfish boomers took away from Xers and Millies)

https://vimeo.com/80267729

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 20-Sep-17 World View -- Kenya's government in chaos as it faces a new election delay

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia's 'telephone terror' forces evacuation of over 200,000 people
  
• Kenya's government in chaos as it faces a new election delay
  

****
**** Russia's 'telephone terror' forces evacuation of over 200,000 people
****


Moscow police block the entrance to Louis Vuitton after bomb scare (Reuters)

Dozens of Russian cities have been the target of hundreds of bomb
scares, starting on Sunday, September 10. Police cleared two dozen
buildings in the city of Omsk, including cinemas, schools, malls and
City Hall. In Ryazan later that day, eleven malls and several cinemas
and restaurants were evacuated.

On Monday, there were 42 bomb scares in four cities. On Tuesday,
45,000 people were evacuated from 205 buildings in 22 cities across
Russia. The bomb scares have continued every day. It's estimated
that over 200,000 people have been evacuated in cities across Russia
so far, costing the authorities about $5.2 million. And the end is
nowhere in sight.

The Kremlin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the bomb threats
"telephone terrorism." The hoaxes are being perpetrated by unknown
individuals calling in bomb threats from internet phone systems.
Since the internet is everywhere, the bomb threats could originate
from anywhere in the world.

One report from an unnamed source says that the internet phone calls
were tracked to an IP address in Ukraine. However, other sources in
the Russia's Interior Ministry say that the hackers may be based in
Brussels.

Other theories are that the hoax phone calls are from the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), presumably by Russian
citizens from Chechnya or Dagestan who went to Syria to fight Bashar
al-Assad.

Russian authorities say that they're doing all they can to find the
perpetrators, but for the time being, the authorities are stumped.
Window on Eurasia and Moscow Times and Tass (Moscow) and Moscow Times

****
**** Kenya's government in chaos as it faces a new election delay
****

When Kenya's Supreme Court declared that the August 8 election was
"invalid, null and void" because of electoral committee
irregularities, it gave the government 60 days to hold a new election.

A new election was scheduled for October 17, but Safran Identity and
Security, the French IT consultants that provide electronic election
management system, says that it will not have its systems ready by
then, and is requesting that the election be postponed at least until
October 26.

The key players are unable to agree on the details of how to run the
new election, and these disagreements raise doubts that any credible
election can be held.

The incumbent, Uhuru Kenyatta, who was reelected in the election
declared invalid, has called the four Supreme Court judges who voted
to nullify the election "crooks," implying that they were paid off by
the opposition. Kenyatta's supporters have been protesting in fron
the Supreme Court building, claiming that they stole the election from
Kenyatta.

The opposition candidate, Raila Odinga, blames the Independent
Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), which oversaw the first
election. Odinga is demanding that its members resign, claiming that
the rigged the first election in favor of Kenyatta, and that he was
proven right when the Supreme Court nullified the election.

Because of numerous threats of violence, Supreme Court judge David
Maraga issued a statement on Tuesday:

<QUOTE>"1. You will recall that four weeks ago, the Judicial
Service Commission addressed Kenyans through a press conference at
this very place over the increasing incidence of attacks by
various groups of people who were given to making threats and
demands intended to interfere with the work of the Judiciary.

2. Since the Supreme Court delivered the judgement on the 2017
Presidential Election Petition on September 1, 2017, these attacks
have become even more aggressive, culminating in lengthy
uninterrupted demonstrations right outside the Supreme Court
Building yesterday and today.

3. Whereas we recognise and respect the rights of citizens to
picket as provided in the Constitution, these demonstrations have
bordered on violence and are clear, intended to intimidate the
Judiciary and

4. Further, in a particularly unfortunate incident yesterday in
Kirinyaga County, Hon. Martha Karua was blocked by demonstrators
from accessing the Kerugoya Law Courts for the hearing of her own
petition. This amounts to intimidation of petitioners and should
never be allowed to happen."<END QUOTE>

The Supreme Court has said that on Wednesday (today), the Supreme
Court would provide details of the reasoning behind its ruling
nullifying the August 8 election. Standard Media (Kenya) and Bloomberg and Chronicle (Zimbabwe) and Twitter - David Maraga

Related Articles

• Kenya's Supreme Court issues 'historic' ruling, overturning presidential election (02-Sep-2017)
  
  
• Kenya fears violence as opposition refuses to accept presidential election results (14-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Torture and murder of election official raise fears of violence in Kenya (01-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Post-election massacre in Kenya raises concerns of tribal war (02-Jan-2008)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Omsk, Ryazan, Moscow,
Dmitry Peskov, Ukraine, Brussels, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Chechnya, Dagestan,
Kenya, Uhuru Kenyatta, Raila Odinga, David Maraga,
Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, IEBC

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 21-Sep-17 World View -- With Trump's sanctions in place, Venezuela expected to go bankrupt soon

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• With Trump's sanctions in place, Venezuela expected to go bankrupt soon
  
• Analyst advises Venezuela on keeping its assets safe from creditors
  
• Maduro tells Venezuelans to breed and eat rabbits
  

****
**** With Trump's sanctions in place, Venezuela expected to go bankrupt soon
****


A member of the national guard fires his shotgun during clashes in Caracas, Venezuela, in July (Getty)

An economic analyst is advising Venezuela's government on ways to move
Venezuela's assets out of reach of American and other international
courts, if Venezuela defaults on its national bond payments, effective
declaring national bankruptcy.

Venezuela has met all its debt repayment obligations so far, but some
analysts are predicting that Venezuela will default on bond payments
before the end of 2017. Venezuela has an estimated $63 billion of
bond obligations.

The probability of default has increased substantially since August
25, when US president Donald Trump imposed sanctions that prevent
further borrowing, either by the Venezuelan government itself, or by
the nationalized state oil and natural gas company, Petróleos de
Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA). With both the government and PDVSA severely
restricted in borrowing more money to make payments on existing debts,
it's believed that there will be a default. On August 31, the Fitch
Ratings service downgraded Venezuela's bonds from CCC down to CC, to
reflect the increased chance of default after the new sanctions were
imposed. Reuters (26-Aug) and Latin America Herald Tribune (31-Aug)

****
**** Analyst advises Venezuela on keeping its assets safe from creditors
****

A lengthy analysis by Mark Walker of Millstein & Co, co-authored by
Richard Cooper at Cleary Gottlieb provides a roadmap for Venezuela to
keep state out assets out of the reach of creditors. In particular,
it describes methods for keeping the assets of PDVSA, the nationalized
state oil company, away from its own creditors and the government's
creditors.

According to the analysis:

<QUOTE>"As the humanitarian, economic, financial and
political crisis intensifies in Venezuela, so too does the
complexity of the tasks the country must accomplish to reverse the
18 years of mismanagement and policy distortion that marked the
presidencies of Hugo Chavez and Nicolas Maduro. The difficulty of
reforming the economy in the aftermath of these failed policies is
compounded both by the need to carry out this reform in what is
likely to be a wrenching change in the political landscape and by
the fact that there are stakeholders in Venezuela with a strong
interest in maintaining the status quo. That said, Venezuela has
no other choice but reform and political change. The current
government has openly opposed the reforms necessary to stabilize
the Venezuelan economy and create the conditions for sustained
growth. It has lost legitimacy and credibility internationally as
well as domestically. The President and many of its senior
representatives are isolated from discourse by sanctions imposed
by the United States, and the acquisition and trading of new debt
is now prohibited by the same U.S. sanctions, with other countries
likely to follow. Accordingly, we start from the premise that the
only Venezuelan government that will be able to carry out a
restructuring of Venezuela’s liabilities is a government—which
could be a caretaker or transitional government—that demonstrates
a credible commitment to the necessary reforms and can undertake
binding obligations in a restructuring whose validity under
applicable laws is not subject to challenge."<END QUOTE>

It's good that Walker and Cooper get these assumptions out of the way,
because in my opinion the assumptions are unrealistic. In my opinion,
Venezuela's Socialist president Nicolás Maduro Moros will never
"demonstrate a credible commitment to the necessary reforms." This is
the psychopathy we see today in governments around the world --
Syria's president using Sarin gas and barrel bombs on innocent women
and children, the governments of Eritrea and Burundi using arrest,
rape, murder and torture at will of anyone who expresses opposition to
the government, or Burma's government using genocide and ethnic
cleansing to eliminate a million Rohingyas.

In my opinion, Maduro's government is headed in the same direction as
the governments of Syria, Eritrea, Burundi or Burma, and not in the
direction of "a credible commitment to the necessary reforms."

Walker and Cooper agree with that, but make an even more unlikely
assumption -- that Maduro will step down and give control to "a
caretaker or transitional government -- that demonstrates a credible
commitment to the necessary reforms."

So having said that, let's look at the actual proposal:

<QUOTE>"Accordingly, we see as the first step and priority in
any restructuring process the implementation of measures to
protect the country’s assets, particularly those vulnerable to
seizure, such as the proceeds from the sale of oil, while it
simultaneously commences discussions with the IMF, bilateral
lenders such as China and Russia and market participants -- a
process that will take several months at the least. Once the
nation’s assets are secure, Venezuela will be able to enter into
good faith negotiations with the official sector and its
creditors, use its scarce foreign exchange in the best interests
of the country and stop immediately the pursuit of dangerously
uneconomic transactions whose sole purpose is to avoid a bond
default. ...

Knowing that a default is both inevitable and necessary, Venezuela
must have as its highest priority the objective of protecting
PDVSA’s cash generating assets located outside
Venezuela."<END QUOTE>

Maduro in "good faith negotiations"? I don't think so.

Anyway, Walker and Cooper suggest several methods from Venezuela and
PDVSA to effectively declare bankruptcy. They recommend that
Venezuela modify its existing Venezuelan Public Sector Revitalization
Law so that it will be recognized by the U.S. Bankruptcy Court as "a
collective judicial or administrative proceeding in a foreign
country," where "collective" means "one that considers the rights and
obligations of all creditors" in allocating PDVSA's assets. This
would mean, for example, that the law could not could not favor
Maduro's friends -- Russia and China, who are owed $37.2 billion --
over American and other Western creditors. This would require an
independent entity outside of Maduro's control allocating PDVSA's
assets among creditors and, once again, in my opinion Maduro would
rather eat mud than agree to anything like that.

As a last resort, Walker and Cooper advise that if all else fails,
then Venezuela should try to get the bankruptcy processed by a UK
court, taking advantage of English law which may be more lenient.

Finally, the Walker and Cooper paper returns to the assumption of a
transitional government:

<QUOTE>"Our premise, however, is that the current regime
cannot today restructure its debt and that the Venezuelan Public
Sector Revitalization Law will be enacted by a government that is
attempting to overcome a humanitarian and economic crisis of
historic proportions created by prior administrations. Far from
imposing sanctions, we assume that at such time U.S. policy will
be to promote a restoration of Venezuela’s economy and the revival
of its democratic"<END QUOTE>

So, the idea is that Maduro will agree to hand power over to an
independent transitional government, and the U.S. courts will be
extra-lenient, in order " to overcome a humanitarian and economic
crisis of historic proportions created by prior administrations. Far
from imposing sanctions."

Well, stranger things have happened. And even if Maduro doesn't
voluntarily step down, maybe Venezuela's army will finally force him
to step down, for the good of the country.

What the Walker and Cooper proposals really show is that Venezuela is
at a fork in the road. If Maduro steps down and lets someone else
govern, then some of the proposals discussed here could be
implemented.

It's tempting to say that never happens, but in fact Communist and Socialist governments did end peacefully in Cuba,
East Germany and Russia, and returned to at
least a semi-capitalist free economy.

The other alternative is that Maduro refused to step down, and the
streets are flowing with blood. Reuters and SSRN papers

****
**** Maduro tells Venezuelans to breed and eat rabbits
****


Yum! Dinner!

Venezuela's Socialist president Nicolás Maduro Moros has inflicted
enormous pain and humiliation of the country's people, with empty
store shelves and shortages of everything from toilet paper to
medicines to vegetables, jailing owners of closed factories, jailing
bakers who make croissants or brownies instead of bread, accusing
Twitter of attacking his government, one of the highest murder rates
in the world, and an inflation rate of 33% per MONTH, forcing many
people to forage for food in garbage cans.

Now Maduro is announcing a "rabbit plan" to help out starving
Venezuelans. He announced on state television, "For animal protein,
which is such an important issue, a 'rabbit plan' has been approved
because rabbits also breed like rabbits."

However, the rabbit plan faced an early setback. Freddy Bernal, the
head of Maduro's food program, distributed baby rabbits to families in
15 communities, as a pilot project.

However, instead of eating the rabbits, people kept them as pets.
According to Maduro, "When he came back, to his surprise he found
people had put little bows on their rabbits and were keeping them as
pets, it was an early setback to Plan Rabbit."

Bernal is telling Venezuelans to get over their love of rabbits.
People need to understand "that the rabbit is not a pet, but two and a
half kilos of meat with high protein and no cholesterol put on the
table of Venezuelans." BBC and
Daily Mail (London) and VOA

Related Articles

• Venezuela's mestizo president Hugo Chavez dies of cancer (06-Mar-2013)
  
  
• Hugo Chávez dismantled Venezuela's businesses on purpose to create Socialist Paradise (29-May-2016)
  
  
• Venezuela's Socialist government arrests bakers because of bread shortage (20-Mar-2017)
  
  
• Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Puerto Rico - three amigos in Marxist economic destruction (01-Jul-2016)
  
  
• Venezuela economy close to collapse as Maduro orders jailing of factory owners (15-May-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro Moros, Hugo Chávez,
Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A., PDVSA, Fitch Rating, Freddy Bernal,
Mark Walker, Millstein & Co, Richard Cooper, Cleary Gottlieb

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Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Ragnarök_62]

(09-15-2017, 10:28 PM)

Quote: John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 16-Sep-17 World View -- What you should do about the huge Equifax data breach

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• The huge Equifax data breach puts makes many people vulnerable to identity theft
  
• Steps you should consider taking to protect yourself
  
• Equifax and the rise of Generation-X
  
• Release of DOJ memo reveals massive criminal fraud by JP Morgan in financial crisis
  

<snip>

For the protection of your computer, you should make sure that you
have anti-virus and anti-malware software installed, and that it's up
to date.

For protection from identity theft, you might consider getting a
"credit lock" or "credit freeze."  This is a service offered by each
of the three credit reporting agencies, Equifax, TransUnion and
Experian, for about $10 per year each.  Equifax is waiving its fee for
one year, but you'll still have to pay the others.  This service
prevents someone from getting your credit report without your
permission, blocking them from taking out a loan in your name.  It's a
pain in the neck to administer, but you may consider it worth the
trouble.

The following are links to articles that provide additional
information on the above and other steps to protect yourself: Federal Trade Commission and CBS News and NPR and CNBC and Engadget

 

1. I took the credit freeze with all three stooge credit bureaus.  OK, Equifax didn't patch a known Apache but until , uh a lot later than the announcement.  Then a bunch of bungled responses after that. So, are we sure the C suites are all GenXers?  Howsabout outsourcing.  Did Equifax use cheap H1-B replacers of Americans?  I think Neo-liberalism is the main culprit.  All in for because profits. Use money and loans to do stock buybacks, baby.

2.Credit freeze = you are no longer the product for these idiots.  I deserve the right to copyright my identity bits.

Quote:****
**** Equifax and the rise of Generation-X
****

As I wrote above, Equifax obviously didn't really care much about
network security.  In my experience, Gen-Xers ignore warnings about
things like security if the warnings come from a Boomer, of whom many
Gen-Xers are often contemptuous.



Equifax learned about the hack on July 29, but didn't inform the
public for several weeks.  Two days later, on August 1, three Equifax
executives sold $1.8 million worth of shares, allegedly to avoid
losing money from the stock price falling when the breach was made
public.  Equifax claims that they were going to sell the shares
anyway, and didn't know about the breach.

Yes a clusterfuck, but wrt Xer's sources please.



<snip>

Quote:The 2010 article that I wrote was about Citibank, and it proved
mathematically that Citibank must have committed exactly this kind of
criminal fraud.  The memo about JP Morgan shows that the Obama Justice
Department was fully aware of this criminal fraud, and was committed
to using the Justice Department to cover up the criminal fraud in
return for billions of dollars in payments and contributions.

This week there's a lot of stuff coming out about the Obama
administration, such as Susan Rice's illegal unmasking of political
opponents, confirmation that the Lois Lerner's IRS illegally targeted
political opponents.  I'm a pretty cynical person.  I look upon this
as happening because the Obama administration had a Generation-X
culture, with little regard for the law or common sense.  Let's hope
that the Boomer culture of the Trump administration does better.
Vanity Fair

[quote]


I have a different model that explains this without any particular generation.  It goes like this John.
Congress + Potus = money whores and the Johns are Corporate America. Corporate America pays for its "tricks" by donating to Congress + Potus campaigns or weird stuff like Clinton Foundation.  

And... because Citizen's United decision + widespread pandemic of Neoliberal Virus.


Neoliberal Virus.  Recently discovered mutation in the rabies virus. Said virus infects only humans and like its predecessor the rabies virus, it goes to the brain. Instead of death, said virus turns its victims into zombies that walk around saying Ayn Rand is God, all things including allowing nation states being liable for mucking up profits is good policy, #profitsmatter, and stutter "lower taxes, lower regulation" over and over again.






KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Equifax, TransUnion, Experian,
Spear Phishing, Healthcare.gov, Obamacare, Generation-X,
JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Citibank

+ money whores,Johns,Corporate America,Neoliberal Virus,rabies,taxes,regulation,NeoLiberalism,#profitsmatter

[Cynic Hero '86]

(09-20-2017, 10:04 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 21-Sep-17 World View -- With Trump's sanctions in place, Venezuela expected to go bankrupt soon

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• With Trump's sanctions in place, Venezuela expected to go bankrupt soon
  
• Analyst advises Venezuela on keeping its assets safe from creditors
  
• Maduro tells Venezuelans to breed and eat rabbits
  

****
**** With Trump's sanctions in place, Venezuela expected to go bankrupt soon
****


A member of the national guard fires his shotgun during clashes in Caracas, Venezuela, in July (Getty)

An economic analyst is advising Venezuela's government on ways to move
Venezuela's assets out of reach of American and other international
courts, if Venezuela defaults on its national bond payments, effective
declaring national bankruptcy....

Regrettable whats happening in venuzuela, particularly the unlikeliness of the maduro government adopting sensible economic and social policies. However I criticizes the ideological argument that the article turned into particularly the implied argument you advanced when mentioning other regions such as syria and burma: Those arguments are another manifestation of typical boomer selfishness. Why can't boomers acknowledge the assad regime as syria's legitimate government. Regarding Burma/Myanmar there is the same thing; the ingrained refusal to acknowledge that the Burmese government and the tatmadaw are the legitimate authorities in those countries. The selfish Boomer deliberately conflates "democracy" with "human rights" tyranny.

This effects relations with and between the US and other countries as well. Note that Chinese hostility to "democracy" has far more to do with attempts to force "human rights" reforms on China than any opposition to "democracy itself"; chinese conflicts with India for example have to do with territory and disputes over territory than any ideological opposition to "democracy" in india. Russia also has "democracy" and yet their policies are not dictated by "human rights" nonsense. As you mentioned in earlier posts a few days ago that India has sided with myanmar. Note that China too according reports has also entered the Burmese diplomatic fray over the Rohingyas, the Chinese too have announced they are siding with the Burmese government. So BOTH India and China have agreed that the strife in Burma is a purely internal matter for Burma. Why then is the US and europe constantly bringing up the Rohingya issue at the UN? This is just another example of baby boomers SELFISHNESS.

Please reply to this post JohnX. Also JohnX please reply to my earlier post made on September 19.

[John J. Xenakis]

I'm not your servant, and just because you demand that I respond to
your moronic repetitive rants doesn't mean that I have any obligation
to do so. Whether I respond to something depends on whether I'm in
the mood, whether I have time, and whether the subject is interesting
to me.

Since you mentioned Burma, I'll post a response that I gave to a
question by another web site reader on my article on Burma's Buddhists
committing genocide and ethnic cleansing on the Rohingyas about
whether Islam is a "religion of peace."

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Islam is NOT a
religion of peace. In fact, there's no such thing as a religion of
peace. In fact, no religion would exist for long as a "religion of
peace," since its population would soon be exterminated by people of
other religions who do NOT follow "religion of peace" policies.

Let's take Buddhism as an example. Many commenters seem to believe
that Buddhism is a "religion of peace." And yet, the Buddhist society
of the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia, led by Pol Pot, perpetrated one of the
three or four top mass genocides of the 20th century, comparable to
the huge Christian genocides in Russia and Germany in the two world
wars, or the huge Muslim genocides in the Mideast coming out of the
collapse of the Ottoman empire, or the huge African genocides in the
60s and 70s, or the huge Chinese genocides in the 40s and 50s.
Genocide and sex are driven by DNA, not by religion, and all religions
have the same DNA.

The Buddhist Cambodian killing fields genocide, 1975-79, killed
something like 1.7 to well over 2 million people, out of a population
of 8 million. These millions of people were the subject of almost
unimaginable atrocities, including torture and rape.

In fact, as I now look more closely at the Buddhist Cambodian killing
fields genocide, it seems more and more apparent to me that the
Buddhists in Burma may well be purposely imitating some of the
techniques of their Buddhist cousins in the Khmer Rouge. This would
be an example of one group of genocidal Buddhists learning genocide
from another group of genocidal Buddhists.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Buddhism is a
"religion of war," just like Islam and every other religion. No
"religion of peace" would survive more than a few decades, if it
weren't willing to become a "religion of war."

[Cynic Hero '86]

(09-21-2017, 06:50 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: I'm not your servant, and just because you demand that I respond to
your moronic repetitive rants doesn't mean that I have any obligation
to do so.  Whether I respond to something depends on whether I'm in
the mood, whether I have time, and whether the subject is interesting
to me.

Since you mentioned Burma, I'll post a response that I gave to a
question by another web site reader on my article on Burma's Buddhists
committing genocide and ethnic cleansing on the Rohingyas about
whether Islam is a "religion of peace."

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Islam is NOT a
religion of peace.  In fact, there's no such thing as a religion of
peace.  In fact, no religion would exist for long as a "religion of
peace," since its population would soon be exterminated by people of
other religions who do NOT follow "religion of peace" policies.

Let's take Buddhism as an example.  Many commenters seem to believe
that Buddhism is a "religion of peace."  And yet, the Buddhist society
of the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia, led by Pol Pot, perpetrated one of the
three or four top mass genocides of the 20th century, comparable to
the huge Christian genocides in Russia and Germany in the two world
wars, or the huge Muslim genocides in the Mideast coming out of the
collapse of the Ottoman empire, or the huge African genocides in the
60s and 70s, or the huge Chinese genocides in the 40s and 50s.
Genocide and sex are driven by DNA, not by religion, and all religions
have the same DNA.

The Buddhist Cambodian killing fields genocide, 1975-79, killed
something like 1.7 to well over 2 million people, out of a population
of 8 million.  These millions of people were the subject of almost
unimaginable atrocities, including torture and rape.

In fact, as I now look more closely at the Buddhist Cambodian killing
fields genocide, it seems more and more apparent to me that the
Buddhists in Burma may well be purposely imitating some of the
techniques of their Buddhist cousins in the Khmer Rouge.  This would
be an example of one group of genocidal Buddhists learning genocide
from another group of genocidal Buddhists.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Buddhism is a
"religion of war," just like Islam and every other religion.  No
"religion of peace" would survive more than a few decades, if it
weren't willing to become a "religion of war."

JohnX, I'm not referring to the genocide in Burma itself and the dynamics that led to that. I'm referring to the international response to the genocide by various countries and the dynamics of those responses. The Boomers in the west have adopted a political line that is biased in favor toward the Rohingyas and Muslim separatists and biased against the Myanmar government. Both India and now China have adopted more sensible policies and well rounded policies regarding the conflict in Burma. Neither India or China are blaming everything on the Burmese government, both countries have policies that are willing to acknowledge that both sides actions have lead to the current bloodshed. I am criticizing the reaction of the boomber-dominated western governments which is basically to blame everything on the Burmese government and tatmadaw and claims that the guilt of the conflict rests entirely with those entities; in short the boomer political line basically says that the Rohingya separatists have done nothing wrong.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 22-Sep-17 World View -- Trump's North Korea sanctions stop short of military blockade

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Trump imposes unilateral financial sanctions on North Korea
  
• Sanctions fall far short of military blockade first proposed
  
• North Korea threatens a 'Pacific Ocean nuclear test'
  

****
**** Trump imposes unilateral financial sanctions on North Korea
****


Kim Jong-un in a Japanese news broadcast being broadcast on an outdoor video screen in Tokyo. (AP)

President Donald Trump on Thursday issued an executive order imposing
a new round of sanctions on North Korea. The new sanctions were
approved by the UN Security Council on Monday of last week, and
attempt to leverage the power of the US financial system. On the same
day, the European Union reached agreement to ban EU investment in
North Korea.

To my knowledge, no one seriously believes that these new sanctions
will have any major effect on North Korea, any more than previous
sanctions have, or that they will motivate the North Koreans to end
its nuclear missile development program.

President Trump's sanctions can apply to persons in any country
outside of North Korea. The executive order calls for sanctions on
persons involved in:

• Industries: The construction, energy, financial services,
  fishing, information technology, manufacturing, medical, mining,
  textiles, or transportation industries in North Korea;
  
  
• Ports: Ownership, control, or operation of any port in North
  Korea, including any seaport, airport, or land port of entry;
  
  
• Imports/Exports: at least one significant importation from or
  exportation to North Korea of any goods, services, or
  technology.

Sanctions may be imposed on any foreign financial institution in any
country, if the institution conducts or facilitates trade with North
Korea. The White House says that "Foreign financial institutions must
choose between doing business with the United States or facilitating
trade with North Korea or its designated supporters." Reuters and White House and Reuters

****
**** Sanctions fall far short of military blockade first proposed
****

According to the White House:

<QUOTE>"The [Executive Order] directly targets North Korea’s
shipping and trade networks and issues a 180-day ban on vessels
and aircraft that have visited North Korea from visiting the
United States. This ban also targets vessels that have engaged in
a ship-to-ship transfer with a vessel that has visited North Korea
within 180 days. North Korea is dependent on its shipping networks
to facilitate international trade."<END QUOTE>

Ships and aircraft that have visited or traded with North Korea will
be banned from entering the United States for 180 days.

However, this is far short of the kinds of sanctions that Trump had
wanted to impose. According to the draft resolution that the US
submitted to the Security Council two weeks ago, any U.N. member state
would be authorized to inspect North Korean ships suspected of
carrying banned cargo and to use "all necessary measures to carry out
such inspections."

The banned cargo would include any "crude oil, condensates, refined
petroleum products, and natural gas liquids," as well as textiles. The
draft resolution called for an end to the hiring of North Korean
nationals, which provide North Korea with hard currency.

This would be an effective trade blockade on North Korea. Although
any nation would be authorized to carry out the forced inspections, as
a practical matter it's expected that only the US would actually do
so. If a North Korean ship resisted the inspection, then there might
be an exchange of fire that might escalate into war, putting Seoul,
South Korea, into great risk.

It was those fears of escalation that caused Russia and China to
threaten to veto the resolution. In order to overcome the objections,
the US agreed to water down the resolution to the point where it will
have no effect at all on the North Korean regime.

Earlier this week, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis was asked whether
there were any military options the United States could take with
North Korea that would not put Seoul at grave risk. Mattis said: “Yes
there are. But I will not go into details.”

Guardian (London, 11-Sep) and Bloomberg (13-Sep) and Reuters (18-Sep) and Washington Examiner

****
**** North Korea threatens a 'Pacific Ocean nuclear test'
****

In a statement a couple of days ago, North Korea's child dictator Kim
Jong-un threatened the "highest level of hard-line countermeasure in
history" against the United States.

North Korea's Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho was asked on Thursday what
that meant, and he said,

<QUOTE>"It could be the most powerful detonation of an H-bomb
in the Pacific. We have no idea about what actions could be taken
as it will be ordered by leader Kim Jong-un."<END QUOTE>

This action, if taken, would be just as much an escalation towards war
that the proposed military blockade of North Korea would be. The
hydrogen explosion would threaten shipping and planes flying overhead,
and would release a great deal of radiation and cause environmental
damage.

So the United States and West have two possible paths forward -- a
"peaceful" diplomatic approach (sanctions), amounting to appeasement,
and a confrontational approach (blockade). The appeasement could
trigger war from the North Korean side, while the blockade could
trigger war from the American side.

Either action leads to the same outcome. For almost 15 years, I've
been writing Generational Dynamics analyses that predict that the
world is headed for World War III, pitting the US, the West, India,
Russia and Iran versus China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries.

The World War could be predicted, but the timing and the exact
scenario leading to that war could not be predicted. But now we seem
to be rushing toward war over North Korea, and neither Russia nor
China seem willing to take steps to prevent it.

As an additional note, there is a report that Steve Bannon had a
secret meeting with a senior Chinese Communist Party official in
Beijing last week. Bannon is an expert on world history, and is also
an expert on Generational Dynamics. He was recently ousted from the
White House as Donald Trump's chief strategy, but according to
reports, he still has the president's ear. Bannon fully understands
that the world is headed for a world war. Perhaps he hopes that by
meeting with the Chinese, he can find a way to prevent it, although
Generational Dynamics says that it can't be prevented. Yonhap (South Korea) and Sky News (Australia) and Washington Examiner

Related Articles

• North Korea and Russia continue to incite a new Korean War (06-Sep-2017)
  
  
• America's UN ambassador Nikki Haley says North Korea is 'begging for war' (05-Sep-2017)
  
  
• Donald Trump's speech in Warsaw Poland evokes the Clash of Civilizations (07-Jul-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Russia, China,
Jim Mattis, Ri Yong Ho, Steve Bannon

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Cynic Hero '86]

Globalist neoliberalism will fall. Xers and Millies will revitalize America and the rest of the west after the fall of neo-liberal globalism.

[Warren Dew]

Honestly, I hope Kim does something that can outrage people so we can take care of him.

[John J. Xenakis]

(09-22-2017, 11:42 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: Honestly, I hope Kim does something that can outrage people so we can take care of him.

Famous last words.

[Warren Dew]

(09-22-2017, 12:33 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(09-22-2017, 11:42 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: Honestly, I hope Kim does something that can outrage people so we can take care of him.

Famous last words.

What are you hoping?  That the crisis war can be put off forever?  You must know that's impossible.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 23-Sep-17 World View -- The 1930s Spanish Civil War fault lines explode again over Catalonia independence referendum

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Spain's government mounts massive crackdown to prevent Catalonia independence referendum
  
• The 1930s Spanish Civil War fault lines explode again over Catalonia independence referendum
  

****
**** Spain's government mounts massive crackdown to prevent Catalonia independence referendum
****


In Barcelona on Thursday, a protesters holds up a banner reading 'I just want to vote' (Getty)

The government of Spain is facing its biggest political crisis in
decades, since the wealthy region of Catalonia is demanding
independence from Spain, and is planning to hold an independence
referendum next week on October 1.

Catalonia's parliament passed a measure in September officially
announcing its plan to hold a referendum on October 1. The parliament
said that if the referendum passed, then it would declare independence
from Spain within 48 hours.

Tens of thousands of Catalans have taken to the streets in Barcelona,
protesting the Spanish government and expressing support for the
planned vote on Catalan independence.

The Madrid government, backed up by Spain's Constitutional Court, has
declared the referendum to be illegal. Spain's King Felipe and
Spain's prime minister Mariano Rajoy have both publicly called on
Catalans not to vote. Earlier this week Madrid began a major
crackdown on Catalonia institutions to prevent the referendum from
taking place

On Tuesday, Madrid took to court 700 Catalan mayors for allowing
preparations to go ahead.

On Wednesday, the Guardia Civil, Spain's national police, stormed
ministries and buildings in Barcelona belonging to Catalonia's
regional government, including the economy department, foreign affairs
department, and social affairs department.

Fourteen high-ranking Catalan officials were arrested, infuriating the
public.

This was after the police went from building to building, raiding
printers, newspaper offices and private delivery companies, searching
for election materials, confiscating vote record forms, ballot boxes,
and almost ten million ballot papers, as well as and campaign
leaflets.

It's quite possible that this crackdown will prevent the referendum
from being held, although Catalonia official Oriol Junqueras said that
there will be a vote, possibly using ordinary sheets of paper as
ballot papers.

However, it almost doesn't matter any more whether the referendum is
held or not. Madrid's crackdown, which many criticize as an enormous
overreaction, has infuriated the Catalans, and is leading to
continuing anti-Madrid street protests. More than 40,000 people have
gathered in Barcelona to protest over the arrests and the intervention
of the Spanish government in the Catalan independence vote. Reuters and New Europe and El Periodico (Barcelona) (Trans) and Express (London)

****
**** The 1930s Spanish Civil War fault lines explode again over Catalonia independence referendum
****

The Madrid government has flooded Catalonia with almost ten thousand
police officers, has stormed Catalonia's government buildings, has
confiscated thousands of ballot papers, and arrested Catalonia
government officials. To those with long memories, this looks a lot
like the beginnings of policies that led to the Spanish Civil War.

In the 1930s, during Spain's Second Republic, the government had
granted Catalonia a fair amount of autonomy, though there were
occasional bloody street fights between Anarchists and Communists.
However, that autonomy changed with the Spanish Civil War (1936-39),
which was one of the bloodiest wars of the 20th century, and a prelude
to the much larger World War II.

Generalísimo Francisco Franco's fascist nationalism, aided by Italy
and Germany, led to massive atrocities in Catalonia, with entire
villages completely flattened by Benito Mussolini’s Italian air-force
and the German Luftwaffe. Franco imprisoned, tortured and executed
tens of thousands of Catalan people. At the same time, there were
extremely bloody wars between the Anarchists and Communists. The war
climaxed with the Battle of Ebro (July to November 1938), in which
15,000 pro-Republic Catalans died, resulting in victory for Franco.

Franco marginalized the Catalans after the war ended, but during the
generational Awakening era of the 1950s, Catalan groups were forming
underground resistance and opposing Franco. Franco's death on
November 23rd 1975 signaled the full beginning of the generational
Unraveling era, with calls for renewal of democracy and self-rule in
all regions of the country. In 1977, more than one million Catalans
marched through the streets of Barcelona and asking for freedom,
amnesty and self-rule. But only limited self-rule was allowed.

Today, Spain is well into a new generational Crisis era, and as the
survivors of the last crisis war die off, the fault lines that led to
the Spanish Civil War of 1936-39 are reemerging. Catalonia's demand
for an independence referendum, and Madrid's overreaction and
crackdown on Catalonia last week resulted in little or no violence,
but they represent a growing renewal of the tensions that separated
Catalonia from Madrid in the 1930s. Guardian (London) and Catalonia Votes and This Is Spain

Related Articles

• Catalonia will vote for independence from Spain on Thursday (25-Sep-2012)
  
  
• Scotland's independence referendum is encouraging Catalonia's separatists (11-Sep-2014)
  
  
• Catalonia parliament votes to secede from Spain (10-Nov-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Spain, Catalonia, Barcelona,
King Felipe, Mariano Rajoy, Oriol Junqueras,
Generalísimo Francisco Franco, Germany, Italy,
Spanish Civil War, Battle of Ebro

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

(09-22-2017, 11:42 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Honestly, I hope Kim does something that can outrage people so we
> can take care of him.

(09-22-2017, 12:33 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > Famous last words.

(09-22-2017, 04:16 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > What are you hoping? That the crisis war can be put off forever?
> You must know that's impossible.

I'm an extremely fatalistic person. So when I wrote "famous last
words," I was saying that the outcome is going to be far worse than
either of us is hoping, and therefore there isn't much point in hoping
for anything. What's going to happen is going to happen, and hoping
for something else is just going to lead to disappointment.

Almost every day for 15 years, I've been writing about some of the
most horrific human behavior -- not something in a fictional novel or
in an episode of the gruesome tv show Criminal Minds -- but things
that are actually happening to millions of people every day. And
things aren't getting better. They get worse and worse very day.
Doing this for 15 years has had an enormous effect on me. Writing
about Generational Dynamics has brought me nothing but grief and
unhappiness, but also a dark, obsessive fascination from watching all
the predictions come true, and also an almost incomprehensible
uncontrollable compulsion to keep doing it. In fact, as I think back
over my life, dating back to my college days, I can see that
everything that I've done in my life has been leading me inexorably to
this role of a prophet. I no longer believe in free will, certainly
not for populations or generations, but also even for individuals.
It's as if someone else wrote out a script for my life that I'm forced
to follow, and it's now nearly the end of Act III and the final
dénouement, whatever that may be.

I'm a person who fits into an ancient template. It's quite possible
that I know more about what's going on in the world than almost anyone
else in the world. But that's not a blessing or a gift. It's always
been a curse to everyone it's happened to. I'm following a tragic
script, just like the mythical Cassadra or the biblical Jeremiah, or
even Winston Churchill -- though Churchill did well because of people
skills that I don't have.

So what am I hoping for? I know what's going to happen to the world,
so I have no hopes for the world. My only hopes are for myself. As
events unfold, I'm hoping that I'll be killed quickly and painlessly.

[Cynic Hero '86]

John, Potentially sacrificing Seoul is not the end of the world. If Seoul is bombarded just because south Korea and its allies are willing to defend themselves than the Kim Government would have proven itself to be a mad dog that would have to be destroyed. The international community would side with the US and south Korea. An added effect is that the US defense and deterrence position would be greatly strengthened. You however seem to think that any American action, even a little one that doesn't signal that "america is a doormat" would immediately trigger a cold war type WW3 nuclear exchange scenario.

[John J. Xenakis]

(09-23-2017, 01:30 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > John, Potentially sacrificing Seoul is not the end of the
> world. If Seoul is bombarded just because south Korea and its
> allies are willing to defend themselves than the Kim Government
> would have proven itself to be a mad dog that would have to be
> destroyed. The international community would side with the US and
> south Korea. An added effect is that the US defense and deterrence
> position would be greatly strengthened. You however seem to think
> that any American action, even a little one that doesn't signal
> that "america is a doormat" would immediately trigger a cold war
> type WW3 nuclear exchange scenario.

That's not what I'm saying at all. I'm saying that final outcome
cannot be prevented. I'm also saying that the immediate result of any
individual action cannot be predicted. A military attack on North
Korea may speed up the path to WWIII, because there will be
retaliation, or the attack may slow down the path, because the attack
will be sobering, even to China. But I don't think that anyone can
seriously conclude that an attack on North Korea will resolve the
matter once and for all, and not lead to any war at all.

[Cynic Hero '86]

But Putin especially and also Xi somewhat are supporting North Korea because they think the US will back down. The reason they think this is because the US usually has backed down when North Korea acts up. If we actually launch war against north Korea, Putin would probably back down immediately since the fundamental assumption behind his support for kim-jong-un would have just been proven false. Regarding China, the Chinese were able to rationally look at India's capabilities and defuse the situation (at doklam). They therefore would be able to look at the US resolve and back down. This does not even necessarily mean that China has to give up potential military expansion, they would just have to expand in directions away from the US and its treaty allies (most likely into interior Asia). This may still lead to a WW3 but that would be a very different war than the one that is currently more likely.

[John J. Xenakis]

(09-23-2017, 02:04 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > But Putin especially and also Xi somewhat are supporting North
> Korea because they think the US will back down. The reason they
> think this is because the US usually has backed down when North
> Korea acts up. If we actually launch war against north Korea,
> Putin would probably back down immediately since the fundamental
> assumption behind his support for kim-jong-un would have just been
> proven false. Regarding China, the Chinese were able to rationally
> look at India's capabilities and defuse the situation (at
> doklam). They therefore would be able to look at the US resolve
> and back down. This does not even necessarily mean that China has
> to give up potential military expansion, they would just have to
> expand in directions away from the US and its treaty allies (most
> likely into interior Asia). This may still lead to a WW3 but that
> would be a very different war than the one that is currently more
> likely.

For one thing, a lot of people believe that China and Russia are quite
content to have North Korea build an arsenal of nuclear missiles
targeted at the US, since they won't be targeted a China or Russia.

But OK. Let's take your scenario. In fact, let's take the most
optimistic scenario: there's an American strike on North Korea that
kills the regime and destroys all the missiles and nuclear materials,
and there's no retaliation on South Korea, and no retaliation on the
US from China or Russia. Can we think of anything more optimistic
than that?

Then what happens next? Will China and Russia go to the UN Security
council and sponsor a resolution thanking and congratulating the
United States for doing such a great job? Hardly.

The response by Russia and China will be vitriolic and belligerent.
They'll say that the US used far more force than necessary; they'll
say that a diplomatic solution was close to working; in fact, they'll
claim that the diplomatic solution had already worked, and that the
strike was completely unnecessary; and they'll say that now that now
that there's no danger from North Korea, the US has to withdraw all
troops, THAAD missiles, and other weapons from South Korea. They'll
threaten the US with war if the US tries anything else military
around the Korean peninsula.

Of course, with the Kim regime destroyed, China will already have
moved in and taken over the government in Pyongyang, to make sure that
things run smoothly, and that there's no humanitarian disaster. (Of
course there will be a huge humanitarian disaster, but we're assuming
the rosiest, most Pollyannaish, most optimistic scenario.)

What will the highly nationalistic and xenophobic people of China
think? Will they suddenly love the US for taking out the Kim regime
and his nuclear missiles? Hardly. They'll be furious about what
happened, and they'll be spreading rumors about how the South Koreans
and the Americans are jointly planning an attack on China. They'll
demand that their leaders prepare for war with the US.

This is the optimistic scenario, and the tensions will be worse than
they are today. The Americans will refuse to withdraw from South
Korea, and with China in control of North Korea, the South Koreans
will be fearing an attack from China, and so they will not want the
Americans to withdraw. It's not war yet, but even the optimistic
scenario is solidly on the path to war.

You say this would be a different WW3 than the one we're headed for
now. Well I guess so, but I'm not sure what the difference would be.
Either way, it will lead to an all-out generational crisis war, with
every nuclear weapon in the world used on someone before the war ends.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 24-Sep-17 World View -- Analysts draw lessons from the China vs India Doklam border standoff

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Chinese and Indian behavior a study in contrasts during Doklam crisis
  
• Analysts draw lessons from the China vs India Doklam border standoff
  

****
**** Chinese and Indian behavior a study in contrasts during Doklam crisis
****


China's President Xi Jinping greets India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Mexico's President Enrique Peña Nieto at BRICS summit on Sept 5 in Xiamen, China, shortly after Doklam border agreement was reached (Reuters)

The military confrontation began suddenly and unexpectedly on June 16,
when China sent troops and construction workers to begin road
construction in Bhutan's Doklam Plateau, with the apparent intention
of annexing the region. The crisis ended just as suddenly and
unexpectedly on August 28.

During those 73 days, it appeared that China and India were on the
verge of a major border war, repeating a 1962 border war in which
India was defeated.

Initially, Bhutan troops tried to prevent the Chinese troop incursion,
but they were overrun. India sent in its own troops, saying that it
did so when Bhutan invoked a treaty with India and asked for help,
resulting in a standoff.

There were no bullets fired, but there were reports of Indian and
Chinese soldiers bumping each other with their chests to push each
other back.

The Indian media were restrained, rarely saying anything that might
inflame the situation or further anger the Chinese.

The Chinese media were the opposite, with extremely belligerent and
vitriolic editorials setting deadlines for India, threatening a
Chinese military invasion of India that would destroy India's army,
and warning India that its defeat would be even worse than the defeat
in the 1962 border war.

The international community was demanding that China and India hold
negotiations to settle the dispute peacefully. Among the vitriolic
threats during the crisis, China said that there couldn't be
negotiations until India unilaterally withdrew its troops, and that
China's army would destroy India's army if India didn't withdraw.

So it was a big surprise on Monday, August 28, when China and India
announced that they had agreed to pull back troops, to end the Doklam
crisis. Even more surprising, it turned out that there had been
secret negotiations going on for weeks, despite China's repeated
insistence that negotiations were impossible until India unilateral
withdrew its troops. Yale Global (14-Sept)

****
**** Analysts draw lessons from the China vs India Doklam border standoff
****

So who won? A lot of people believe that India won, because China was
forced to back down and negotiate a mutual withdrawal. Others claim
that China won in a different sense -- by proving that its army could
strike at any point along the 2000 km border between China and India.
There have also been reports that China will increase the number of
troops stationed near the Doklam Plateau, so that it can be invaded
and annexed later, when the time is right.

In fact, a number of analysts believe that China backed off for now
simply because the timing wasn't right. When China sent in its troops
on June 16, they may have expected to overwhelm Bhutan's defenses and
annex the region quickly and easily, but were surprised when India
sent in troops to come to Bhutan's defense.

Who would have won a military confrontation? I've seen analysts on
both sides of this issue. One thing is certain: If it were a victory
for China, it would not be an easy victory, and the conflict could
spread to a naval battle in the Indian Ocean, or to other parts
of the China-India border.

There are several reasons why the timing was very bad for China to
risk getting involved in a larger conflict with India.

One problem is that there was a BRICS summit scheduled for September
4-5 in Xiamen, China. China invests a great deal of prestige in these
international summit conferences when they're held in China, and
wanted this conference to show China's importance in the world. BRICS
is an acronym for five countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and
South Africa) that are considered to be emerging economies. If the
Doklam crisis had not been settled, then India's prime minister
Narendra Modi would probably have boycotted the BRICS summit, which
would have been an embarrassment to China's president Xi Jinping.
It's no coincidence that the Doklam announcement was made just a few
days before the BRICS summit.

Another issue for China is that the 19th Congress of the Chinese
Communist Party Central Committee is scheduled for October 19. A
blunder in Doklam could result in a brutal power struggle that forces
Xi to step down, in the worst case scenario. Xi may still face
criticism at the Congress for having to back down in Doklam, but
probably not as much as in other scenarios.

China's aggressive, belligerent policies in the South China Sea and
elsewhere may have won praise among editorial writers in China, it
leaves Xi Jinping with numerous questions about where he's leading
China. Relations between China and its neighbors -- Japan, Vietnam,
sometimes the Philippines -- are acrimonious. It's becoming
increasingly apparent that there will be no peaceful reunification
with Taiwan, and no political peace in Hong Kong. And the blistering
North Korea nuclear missile crisis presents extreme risks to China, as
well as to the US.

All of these issues mean that the time was simply not right for a
border war with India. China can send troops into the Doklam Plateau
any time it wishes, as suddenly as it did on June 16, and with
everything else going on, and with the BRICS summit and the CCP
Congress approaching, it was wiser to wait until next year. South Asia Analysis Group (SAAG - India)
and Rand (9-Sep) and Asia Times (6-Sep) and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong, 30-Aug)

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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, India, Doklam Plateau, Bhutan,
Xi Jinping, Narendra Modi, Japan,
BRICS, Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa

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