A broken cycle?

[Eric the Green]

I have to admit I have been saying the current 4T Crisis is domestic, but what is happening now in the USA resembles strikingly the slide towards fascism and tyranny the world saw in the mid to late 1930s. Along with civil wars too.

There are differences too, of course. The world itself is not as sharply divided, and the tyranny is not as blatantly horrific as Hitler, Stalin and Mussolini were. And which side the USA is on is not even clear, or whether there is even anyone on the side of democracy and progress strong enough to resist the current trend. And there is no leader like FDR or even Churchill on the scene to organize and rally the people to the cause of freedom and justice. We just have Angela Merkel and Immanuel Macron, neither of whom are really that stellar themselves. It seems like the new tyrants are riding a wave of admiration for Donald Trump.

The list of reactionaries, tyrants, demagogues, nationalists and dictators who are taking over countries or held off rebellions against them is growing by the day, it seems. It's hard to always remember them all. But it is truly disgusting, and unless Trump is deposed we will have no free world leader to defeat them. If the tyrannies formed an alliance to defeat the democracies this time, the tyrants and reactionaries would win in a cakewalk.

Putin in Russia
Xi Jinping in China
Kim Jung Un in Korea
Maduro in Venezuela
Trump in the USA
Johnson in the UK
Bolsonaro in Brazil
Morrison in Australia
Erdogen in Turkey
Netanyahu in Israel
Sisi in Egypt
Assad the monster in Syria
Duda in Poland
Orban in Hungary
Modhi in India
Deterte in The Philippines
Ayatollah Khamenei in Iran
The 3 dictators in Central America
The regime in Burma
The other backward regimes around the world....
Senator McConnell and the US Supreme Court....

So although we face the same slide into fascism this crisis that we saw in the 1930s crisis, it doesn't look like there's a set of two alliances forming up to fight; there is only the tyrants taking over. The only opponent is the rising regeneracy among the people everywhere against them, the long list of uprisings that have happened in the last decade and continue today, and whether they can ever challenge the tyrannies and the reactionaries. Time will tell, but there's your 4T in a nutshell. No "broken cycle" here; we are in it up to our necks! And if you live on the coast, that's a literal statement.

[David Horn]

(07-26-2019, 04:20 PM)Mikebert Wrote:

(07-24-2019, 02:09 PM)David Horn Wrote: Good point, and not dissimilar to the GD in the last 4T.  That's almost violence-by-other-means.  I guess I'll miss your paper, because I avoid FB like the plague.

Well you can access my most recently published paper here:

https://escholarship.org/uc/irows_cliodynamics

Here is my previous paper on the same topic:

https://escholarship.org/uc/irows_cliodynamics/8/1

The work I referenced is the manuscript for my 4th paper that references these two. You can go here directly to access it

https://www.facebook.com/groups/4TFriend...988863158/

Thanks for the link.  I'm surprised that I hadn't dread your last paper, so I'm enjoying wading through it now.  I'm still staying off FB for a wide range of reason unrelated to T4T, so I'll have to wait patiently for the paper you are vetting to finally reach publication.  You are our resident economics scholar, that's for certain.  Keep it up!

[David Horn]

(07-26-2019, 08:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: … So although we face the same slide into fascism this crisis that we saw in the 1930s crisis, it doesn't look like there's a set of two alliances forming up to fight; there is only the tyrants taking over. The only opponent is the rising regeneracy among the people everywhere against them, the long list of uprisings that have happened in the last decade and continue today, and whether they can ever challenge the tyrannies and the reactionaries. Time will tell, but there's your 4T in a nutshell. No "broken cycle" here; we are in it up to our necks! And if you live on the coast, that's a literal statement.

I agree that this is worrisome.  Successfully moving beyond this new paradigm is both mandatory but not guaranteed by any means.  The entire world seems to have given up on the democratic model, because it failed to "lift all boats" as advertised.  So now they're trying "I'll back you if you get me mine and theirs".  At some point, the ones that expect to get their share and the "other" share will find it's not working.  Let's hope it's sooner than later, and not too far down the rat hole that a non-violent recovery is possible.  

I'm more than a little afraid that four more years of Trump and the worldwide move to autocrats in general will not be broken this cycle, and if it is, it will be violent.  Meanwhile, climate change continues unabated, the oligarchs capture more and more of everything, and the degree of hate grows like a weed.

Past success is no guarantee of future success.

[Cynic Hero '86]

Liberal boomers: if you hate trump then run a fair primary and allow a berniecrat to be the nominee or at the very least biden/berniecrat vp instead of trying to ram harris down our throats like your currently trying to do.

[Ragnarök_62]

(07-26-2019, 08:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I have to admit I have been saying the current 4T Crisis is domestic, but what is happening now in the USA resembles strikingly the slide towards fascism and tyranny the world saw in the mid to late 1930s. Along with civil wars too.

There are differences too, of course. The world itself is not as sharply divided, and the tyranny is not as blatantly horrific as Hitler, Stalin and Mussolini were. And which side the USA is on is not even clear, or whether there is even anyone on the side of democracy and progress strong enough to resist the current trend. And there is no leader like FDR or even Churchill on the scene to organize and rally the people to the cause of freedom and justice. We just have Angela Merkel and Immanuel Macron, neither of whom are really that stellar themselves. It seems like the new tyrants are riding a wave of admiration for Donald Trump.

The list of reactionaries, tyrants, demagogues, nationalists and dictators who are taking over countries or held off rebellions against them is growing by the day, it seems. It's hard to always remember them all. But it is truly disgusting, and unless Trump is deposed we will have no free world leader to defeat them. If the tyrannies formed an alliance to defeat the democracies this time, the tyrants and reactionaries would win in a cakewalk.

Putin in Russia
Xi Jinping in China
Kim Jung Un in Korea
Maduro in Venezuela
Trump in the USA
Johnson in the UK
Bolsonaro in Brazil
Morrison in Australia
Erdogen in Turkey
Netanyahu in Israel
Sisi in Egypt
Assad the monster in Syria
Duda in Poland
Orban in Hungary
Modhi in India
Deterte in The Philippines
Ayatollah Khamenei in Iran
The 3 dictators in Central America
The regime in Burma
The other backward regimes around the world....
Senator McConnell and the US Supreme Court....

So although we face the same slide into fascism this crisis that we saw in the 1930s crisis, it doesn't look like there's a set of two alliances forming up to fight; there is only the tyrants taking over. The only opponent is the rising regeneracy among the people everywhere against them, the long list of uprisings that have happened in the last decade and continue today, and whether they can ever challenge the tyrannies and the reactionaries. Time will tell, but there's your 4T in a nutshell. No "broken cycle" here; we are in it up to our necks! And if you live on the coast, that's a literal statement.

Here are some more for the rogues gallery.

The "B_Team" 


The “B-Team” consists of U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton, Israeli Prime Minister (nee Dictator) Benjamin Netanyahu, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and the UAE’s Mohammed bin Zayed.


Macron of France is just as bad as who ever is running Hong Kong.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/12/h...14250.html



Roll 'em up, roll' em up, rawhide, just so many wild bulls on the march.

[David Horn]

(07-29-2019, 12:08 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Liberal boomers: if you hate trump then run a fair primary and allow a berniecrat to be the nominee or at the very least biden/berniecrat vp instead of trying to ram harris down our throats like your currently trying to do.

If anything, the nomination cycle this time is too wide open.  If I had to guess at this stage, it really won't be Harris, though she's more than qualified.  I'm llooking for Warren or a non-Biden pragmatist … depending on the mood when the votes start rolling in.

[pbrower2a]

(07-29-2019, 01:23 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-29-2019, 12:08 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Liberal boomers: if you hate trump then run a fair primary and allow a berniecrat to be the nominee or at the very least biden/berniecrat vp instead of trying to ram harris down our throats like your currently trying to do.

If anything, the nomination cycle this time is too wide open.  If I had to guess at this stage, it really won't be Harris, though she's more than qualified.  I'm looking for Warren or a non-Biden pragmatist … depending on the mood when the votes start rolling in.

We are going to see the field culled to four or five meaningful nominees before the start of 2020.

Should the nominee be Biden or Sanders, then it will be necessary that the Democrats nominate some competent understudy to be President in the event of... In this case Kamala Harris might be a good choice for not clearing the political bench. Adam Schiff probably succeeds her in the US Senate.. well, you know how California politics are.

After Trump it will, I hope, be back to basics-- that constituent service again becomes more important than attention to lobbyists, civility return to political discussion, demagoguery be discredited, expectations shrink some, and that public service again be more important than personality. Donald Trump seems to be showing us how to do everything wrong.

[Eric the Green]

(07-29-2019, 01:35 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(07-29-2019, 01:23 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-29-2019, 12:08 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Liberal boomers: if you hate trump then run a fair primary and allow a berniecrat to be the nominee or at the very least biden/berniecrat vp instead of trying to ram harris down our throats like your currently trying to do.

If anything, the nomination cycle this time is too wide open.  If I had to guess at this stage, it really won't be Harris, though she's more than qualified.  I'm looking for Warren or a non-Biden pragmatist … depending on the mood when the votes start rolling in.

We are going to see the field culled to four or five meaningful nominees before the start of 2020.

Should the nominee be Biden or Sanders, then it will be necessary that the Democrats nominate some competent understudy to be President in the event of... In this case Kamala Harris might be a good choice for not clearing the political bench. Adam Schiff probably succeeds her in the US Senate.. well, you know how California politics are.

After Trump it will, I hope, be back to basics-- that constituent service again becomes more important than attention to lobbyists, civility return to political discussion, demagoguery be discredited, expectations shrink some, and that public service again be more important than personality. Donald Trump seems to be showing us how to do everything wrong.

I don't think it would be the wisest thing for the Democratic nominee to choose a VP nominee who cannot ever be elected president. As you know, Kamala Harris cannot be elected president, ever.

It would be best if he chooses Terry McAuliffe or Mitch Landrieu. That way Warren and Brown can stay in the Senate. 

But Warren's is probably a safe seat, so Warren might be a good choice for Biden to assure the left, and he might have to make a bargain with her. But she is also unlikely to ever be elected president.

[Eric the Green]

(07-29-2019, 01:23 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-29-2019, 12:08 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Liberal boomers: if you hate trump then run a fair primary and allow a berniecrat to be the nominee or at the very least biden/berniecrat vp instead of trying to ram harris down our throats like your currently trying to do.

If anything, the nomination cycle this time is too wide open.  If I had to guess at this stage, it really won't be Harris, though she's more than qualified.  I'm llooking for Warren or a non-Biden pragmatist … depending on the mood when the votes start rolling in.

Sanders is the ONLY electable alternative to Biden this year.

[Eric the Green]

(07-29-2019, 01:01 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:

(07-26-2019, 08:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I have to admit I have been saying the current 4T Crisis is domestic, but what is happening now in the USA resembles strikingly the slide towards fascism and tyranny the world saw in the mid to late 1930s. Along with civil wars too.

There are differences too, of course. The world itself is not as sharply divided, and the tyranny is not as blatantly horrific as Hitler, Stalin and Mussolini were. And which side the USA is on is not even clear, or whether there is even anyone on the side of democracy and progress strong enough to resist the current trend. And there is no leader like FDR or even Churchill on the scene to organize and rally the people to the cause of freedom and justice. We just have Angela Merkel and Immanuel Macron, neither of whom are really that stellar themselves. It seems like the new tyrants are riding a wave of admiration for Donald Trump.

The list of reactionaries, tyrants, demagogues, nationalists and dictators who are taking over countries or held off rebellions against them is growing by the day, it seems. It's hard to always remember them all. But it is truly disgusting, and unless Trump is deposed we will have no free world leader to defeat them. If the tyrannies formed an alliance to defeat the democracies this time, the tyrants and reactionaries would win in a cakewalk.

Putin in Russia
Xi Jinping in China
Kim Jung Un in Korea
Maduro in Venezuela
Trump in the USA
Johnson in the UK
Bolsonaro in Brazil
Morrison in Australia
Erdogen in Turkey
Netanyahu in Israel
Sisi in Egypt
Assad the monster in Syria
Duda in Poland
Orban in Hungary
Modhi in India
Deterte in The Philippines
Ayatollah Khamenei in Iran
The 3 dictators in Central America
The regime in Burma
The other backward regimes around the world....
Senator McConnell and the US Supreme Court....

So although we face the same slide into fascism this crisis that we saw in the 1930s crisis, it doesn't look like there's a set of two alliances forming up to fight; there is only the tyrants taking over. The only opponent is the rising regeneracy among the people everywhere against them, the long list of uprisings that have happened in the last decade and continue today, and whether they can ever challenge the tyrannies and the reactionaries. Time will tell, but there's your 4T in a nutshell. No "broken cycle" here; we are in it up to our necks! And if you live on the coast, that's a literal statement.

Here are some more for the rogues gallery.

The "B_Team" 


The “B-Team” consists of U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton, Israeli Prime Minister (nee Dictator) Benjamin Netanyahu, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and the UAE’s Mohammed bin Zayed.


Macron of France is just as bad as who ever is running Hong Kong.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/12/h...14250.html



Roll 'em up, roll' em up, rawhide, just so many wild bulls on the march.

I'm surprised I didn't include that Saudi madman. Truly gross beyond measure.

Netanyahu is on my list.

Bolton can be filed under Trump, along with the rest of his lackeys.

I don't know about Zayed; I assume he would be covered under "The other backward regimes around the world...." and doesn't deserve special mention, at least for his domestic policies, although his participation in the Yemen War is horrific.

[Ragnarök_62]

(07-29-2019, 02:39 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(07-29-2019, 01:01 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:

(07-26-2019, 08:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I have to admit I have been saying the current 4T Crisis is domestic, but what is happening now in the USA resembles strikingly the slide towards fascism and tyranny the world saw in the mid to late 1930s. Along with civil wars too.

There are differences too, of course. The world itself is not as sharply divided, and the tyranny is not as blatantly horrific as Hitler, Stalin and Mussolini were. And which side the USA is on is not even clear, or whether there is even anyone on the side of democracy and progress strong enough to resist the current trend. And there is no leader like FDR or even Churchill on the scene to organize and rally the people to the cause of freedom and justice. We just have Angela Merkel and Immanuel Macron, neither of whom are really that stellar themselves. It seems like the new tyrants are riding a wave of admiration for Donald Trump.

The list of reactionaries, tyrants, demagogues, nationalists and dictators who are taking over countries or held off rebellions against them is growing by the day, it seems. It's hard to always remember them all. But it is truly disgusting, and unless Trump is deposed we will have no free world leader to defeat them. If the tyrannies formed an alliance to defeat the democracies this time, the tyrants and reactionaries would win in a cakewalk.

Putin in Russia
Xi Jinping in China
Kim Jung Un in Korea
Maduro in Venezuela
Trump in the USA
Johnson in the UK
Bolsonaro in Brazil
Morrison in Australia
Erdogen in Turkey
Netanyahu in Israel
Sisi in Egypt
Assad the monster in Syria
Duda in Poland
Orban in Hungary
Modhi in India
Deterte in The Philippines
Ayatollah Khamenei in Iran
The 3 dictators in Central America
The regime in Burma
The other backward regimes around the world....
Senator McConnell and the US Supreme Court....

So although we face the same slide into fascism this crisis that we saw in the 1930s crisis, it doesn't look like there's a set of two alliances forming up to fight; there is only the tyrants taking over. The only opponent is the rising regeneracy among the people everywhere against them, the long list of uprisings that have happened in the last decade and continue today, and whether they can ever challenge the tyrannies and the reactionaries. Time will tell, but there's your 4T in a nutshell. No "broken cycle" here; we are in it up to our necks! And if you live on the coast, that's a literal statement.

Here are some more for the rogues gallery.

The "B_Team" 


The “B-Team” consists of U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton, Israeli Prime Minister (nee Dictator) Benjamin Netanyahu, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and the UAE’s Mohammed bin Zayed.


Macron of France is just as bad as who ever is running Hong Kong.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/12/h...14250.html



Roll 'em up, roll' em up, rawhide, just so many wild bulls on the march.

I'm surprised I didn't include that Saudi madman. Truly gross beyond measure.

Netanyahu is on my list.

Bolton can be filed under Trump, along with the rest of his lackeys.

I don't know about Zayed; I assume he would be covered under "The other backward regimes around the world...." and doesn't deserve special mention, at least for his domestic policies, although his participation in the Yemen War is horrific.

Such is understandable wrt Salman and Zayed due to the "out of sight, out of mind" state of the war in Yemen. As for Trump, well, yeah he's managed to get us in quite a spot wrt Iran.  He shoulda kept that deal.  I think he and his dotard buddies aren't aware of Iran's "little red" button.  That is to say, if Iran is attacked, Iran will blow up enough stuff to detonate the derivatives bomb.  It can be thought of as the Big Call.  I'm sure there's a bunch of parties that have long dated futures of somesuch for oil. These things are way out of money right now , but if oil spikes to a magic number, there are going to be a lot of somebodies that are going to owe some other somebodies a lot of money.  This is why Trump is stuck. This is also why I think Iran will escalate stuff now and on into the future , but not in a big way.

[Eric the Green]

Prince Salman is well-known as a tyrant beyond the Yemen War; not only that horrific slaughter, but also killing journalists and many other executions and tyrannies. Like I said, it's hard to remember all of these tyrants and reactionaries, because there's so many now; just an oversight on my part.

[David Horn]

(07-29-2019, 02:35 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(07-29-2019, 01:23 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-29-2019, 12:08 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Liberal boomers: if you hate trump then run a fair primary and allow a berniecrat to be the nominee or at the very least biden/berniecrat vp instead of trying to ram harris down our throats like your currently trying to do.

If anything, the nomination cycle this time is too wide open.  If I had to guess at this stage, it really won't be Harris, though she's more than qualified.  I'm looking for Warren or a non-Biden pragmatist … depending on the mood when the votes start rolling in.

Sanders is the ONLY electable alternative to Biden this year.

If so, then plan on 4 more years of Mafia Don.  Neither of those elderly lefties has a chance.  Warren is only viable because she seems to be on steroids.  Does she ever sit down … or sleep?

[Eric the Green]

(07-30-2019, 04:02 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-29-2019, 02:35 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(07-29-2019, 01:23 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-29-2019, 12:08 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Liberal boomers: if you hate trump then run a fair primary and allow a berniecrat to be the nominee or at the very least biden/berniecrat vp instead of trying to ram harris down our throats like your currently trying to do.

If anything, the nomination cycle this time is too wide open.  If I had to guess at this stage, it really won't be Harris, though she's more than qualified.  I'm looking for Warren or a non-Biden pragmatist … depending on the mood when the votes start rolling in.

Sanders is the ONLY electable alternative to Biden this year.

If so, then plan on 4 more years of Mafia Don.  Neither of those elderly lefties has a chance.  Warren is only viable because she seems to be on steroids.  Does she ever sit down … or sleep?

Sanders and Biden are the only two that have a chance. They are still the leading two, after several months now. The race has never been this far along, this early, so "this early" means something. And, the horoscope scores don't lie.

Warren may be on steroids, ha ha. Crusader Rabbit may not have any powers, but (s)he can run, and run, and run! 





Crusader Rabbit IS Elizabeth Warren!

But since she can't beat Trump, and the geezers may be too old, the Trumpster and his Gang might well win. But he is also liable to keep sabotaging himself, and at some point it may be sabotage beyond repalr.

[AspieMillennial]

If the bad guys win, the cycle is broken. If the US lost WW2 and the Nazis won then that would've been a broken cycle.

[beechnut79]

I feel that the reason many question whether there is a broken cycle is because we have become so stalemated almost to the point of blind obedience to the status quo. And while there have been some efforts at organized protest, most have fallen flat, the Occupy movement being the prime example. Yet many including some on this board are predicting that the 2020s will be the most turbulent decade since at least the 1960s. If so we now have only five month in which to fasten our seat belts. What do you all see?

[David Horn]

(08-01-2019, 09:17 AM)beechnut79 Wrote: I feel that the reason many question whether there is a broken cycle is because we have become so stalemated almost to the point of blind obedience to the status quo. And while there have been some efforts at organized protest, most have fallen flat, the Occupy movement being the prime example. Yet many including some on this board are predicting that the 2020s will be the most turbulent decade since at least the 1960s. If so we now have only five month in which to fasten our seat belts. What do you all see?

Eric sees endgame, and he may be right.  The biggest obstacle to that is our social milieu -- primarily social media.  We need to admit that we are all manipulated to some extent, and, for some, to a huge extent.  When the difference between fact and fiction is limited to my opinion/your opinion, how can we ever achieve enough clarity to set goals and march toward them.

Right now, almost half of the country believes Trump, even though they admit that he lies all the time.  That's unhealthy, but not easily overcome.  Another large swath is not concerned enough to do anything about it.  Maybe if he tries to run for a third term, people will wake up.

[beechnut79]

(08-01-2019, 10:21 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(08-01-2019, 09:17 AM)beechnut79 Wrote: I feel that the reason many question whether there is a broken cycle is because we have become so stalemated almost to the point of blind obedience to the status quo. And while there have been some efforts at organized protest, most have fallen flat, the Occupy movement being the prime example. Yet many including some on this board are predicting that the 2020s will be the most turbulent decade since at least the 1960s. If so we now have only five month in which to fasten our seat belts. What do you all see?

Eric sees endgame, and he may be right.  The biggest obstacle to that is our social milieu -- primarily social media.  We need to admit that we are all manipulated to some extent, and, for some, to a huge extent.  When the difference between fact and fiction is limited to my opinion/your opinion, how can we ever achieve enough clarity to set goals and march toward them.

Right now, almost half of the country believes Trump, even though they admit that he lies all the time.  That's unhealthy, but not easily overcome.  Another large swath is not concerned enough to do anything about it.  Maybe if he tries to run for a third term, people will wake up.

That would require another Constitutional change. The 22nd Amendment passsed in 1951 forbids him from doing so.

[David Horn]

(08-01-2019, 10:29 AM)beechnut79 Wrote:

(08-01-2019, 10:21 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(08-01-2019, 09:17 AM)beechnut79 Wrote: I feel that the reason many question whether there is a broken cycle is because we have become so stalemated almost to the point of blind obedience to the status quo. And while there have been some efforts at organized protest, most have fallen flat, the Occupy movement being the prime example. Yet many including some on this board are predicting that the 2020s will be the most turbulent decade since at least the 1960s. If so we now have only five month in which to fasten our seat belts. What do you all see?

Eric sees endgame, and he may be right.  The biggest obstacle to that is our social milieu -- primarily social media.  We need to admit that we are all manipulated to some extent, and, for some, to a huge extent.  When the difference between fact and fiction is limited to my opinion/your opinion, how can we ever achieve enough clarity to set goals and march toward them.

Right now, almost half of the country believes Trump, even though they admit that he lies all the time.  That's unhealthy, but not easily overcome.  Another large swath is not concerned enough to do anything about it.  Maybe if he tries to run for a third term, people will wake up.

That would require another Constitutional change. The 22nd Amendment passsed in 1951 forbids him from doing so.

Since Trump seems to ignore the rules, and his supporters back him to the hilt, constitutional constraints may not be enough by themselves.  Even trying an end run should be enough of a warning flag to everyone not already a Trumpist, but we're all so inured to his behavior, it may not be.  If he gets reelected in 2020, I wouldn't discount him working his way around the problem, starting as soon as the election is called.  That's what all true dictators do, and he has the DNA for the job.

[pbrower2a]

The educational system will have to change to promote humanistic values as a defense of conventional liberalism. The 40-hour workweek necessary for producing the goods of a prosperous industrial society will have to yield to the reality that we do not need to stockpile more stuff. We never quite made it to the three-car garage and an airplane in every middle-class suburban household. It's a good thing that we never got there! It is arguable that the urban-homesteading Millennial has far less material in his dwelling than did his GI grandparents setting up new lives in suburban America. When one can stream books and music one need not own the books, tapes, or discs of recorded music. Sure, the refrigerator, stove, and pieces of furniture are the same size, and one needs just as many clothes. But the flat-screen TV has less material in it than a black-and-white TV of the early 1950s; the car is probably much smaller. Energy use is down due to greater efficiency, and the only thing that can increase energy use is hotter weather that compels people to get and use air conditioning in places like Minnesota, Michigan, upstate New York, and New England.

People are going to have more spare time, so they had better learn how to make the best of it. Intellectual leisure, anyone? The greater the level and quality of education that people have, the less vulnerable they are to extremist ideologies. Even for the technically-trained (maybe especially for them), the liberal arts can be a worthy supplement. Just so that people can deal with the complexity of political life people need to study some economics, psychology, philosophy, and world history. People who know art, literature, and music (cinema encompasses all three) are rich in ways that millionaires who know none of that are poor. The 40-hour workweek will have to go, even in office environments in which much of the work is bureaucratic charades that produce or improve nothing. The commodity fetish will be an object of ridicule.

Unless commute times bloat, people will have more time to dote upon children (their own or someone else's), do their own cooking, and do household improvements. Some will do creative activities; to be sure, much of it will be hobbyist junk, but some of it will be worth sharing.

As is usual in a 1T the political culture becomes more conformist -- but also more egalitarian. Americans will be less tolerant of economic disparities associated with ethnicity, region, and the urban-rural divide. Today the regional divide may be more severe than race in deciding who is poor with little chance and who has a chance. Would you rather be white in eastern Kentucky or black in suburban Baltimore-Washington? Would you rather be white in southern West Virginia or Hispanic in the San Francisco Bay Area? I expect the cost of living to drive people to move to places that may now best be described as dying giant cities (like Detroit, Cleveland, and St. Louis) as opportunities move there to take advantage of lower costs of doing business.

(This assumes that this 4T will not culminate in a murderous, destructive apocalypse of the type that ravaged much of Europe in the Second World War, this time giving American cities the sorts of man-made disaster known in Warsaw and Hiroshima. But even in that event, survivors will insist on making things better than they were before).

Demagogues will be seen as people to avoid, whether they offer reactionary, revolutionary-socialist, or millennarian-fundamentalist restructuring of everything. The political center that has recently gotten the political shaft will get a renewal, and politicians will seek it out and even come from it. The bimodal split between reactionaries and ultra-liberals in political representation is much of our current pathology. The consensus will emerge that capital and labor are partners, and that thrift is a better idea than is printing funny money for stimulating growth.