H1N1 vs COVID-19 - different social moments?

[sbarrera]

I'm sure many of us have seen memes bringing up H1N1 in comparison with COVID-19 - usually to make a partisan point about the administration's handling of one or the other. Looking back at the 2009 pandemic data, it looks like it was pretty serious - 59 million Americans infected, 265,000 hospitalized, and 12,000 dead. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_p...ted_States

But I don't remember as strong a social reaction as is happening with COVID-19. What's different? This would have been at the beginning of the 4T, as opposed to the middle. We were just getting through a financial crisis that had already started, rather than dealing with one *caused* by the reaction to the pandemic. What else is different? Were we just no there in the Crisis mood yet, or intensely enough? Is it that COVID-19 has been so demonstrably bad for other countries (Italy in particular) so it is more ominous a threat?

[Warren Dew]

I think there are two things here.

First, the things that the two sides are willing to wreck to sabotage the current administration are different. The right was not willing to wreck the free market economy to damage Obama, just as the left would not now be willing to wreck the welfare state to damage Trump. It would have taken a different crisis for the right to be willing to take advantage of it.

Second, yes, the crisis mood is much stronger now. If this were actually a serious disease, we'd be watching the regeneracy in action. Unfortunately it isn't, so I think this is be a false regeneracy, soon to be forgotten as we move on to the next one - unless someone can think of a way where this crisis can last for four or five years.

[David Horn]

(03-16-2020, 10:07 AM)sbarrera Wrote: I'm sure many of us have seen memes bringing up H1N1 in comparison with COVID-19 - usually to make a partisan point about the administration's handling of one or the other. Looking back at the 2009 pandemic data, it looks like it was pretty serious - 59 million Americans infected, 265,000 hospitalized, and 12,000 dead. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_p...ted_States

But I don't remember as strong a social reaction as is happening with COVID-19. What's different? This would have been at the beginning of the 4T, as opposed to the middle. We were just getting through a financial crisis that had already started, rather than dealing with one *caused* by the reaction to the pandemic. What else is different? Were we just no there in the Crisis mood yet, or intensely enough? Is it that COVID-19 has been so demonstrably bad for other countries (Italy in particular) so it is more ominous a threat?

The biggest difference: H1N1 was already well known and understood, though not well supported with remedies.  It is an influenza of a type we recognize, and one that can be addressed by a vaccine, assuming it can be predicted a year in advance.  Once it's out there, we're in the same predicament as COVID-19, but only until the end of the flu season.  If it look's persistent, the vaccine will be created.

[Warren Dew]

(03-16-2020, 01:22 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: Unfortunately it isn't, so I think this is be a false regeneracy, soon to be forgotten as we move on to the next one - unless someone can think of a way where this crisis can last for four or five years.

... such as, for example, Russia or China believing their own propaganda about the US being at fault, with resultant public pressure pushing their governments to retaliate.  Would they retaliate with bioweapons or something else?

[Bob Butler 54]

The CDC has H1N1 as 60 million cases in the US causing 12,469 deaths for a %0.02 death rate as opposed to a %2.0 guess for the recent virus.  This could cause a very different level of panic.  A quick look at the precautions issued by the CDC at the time does not include anything like the shutdowns we are seeing recently.

[pbrower2a]

(03-16-2020, 10:07 AM)sbarrera Wrote: I'm sure many of us have seen memes bringing up H1N1 in comparison with COVID-19 - usually to make a partisan point about the administration's handling of one or the other. Looking back at the 2009 pandemic data, it looks like it was pretty serious - 59 million Americans infected, 265,000 hospitalized, and 12,000 dead. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_p...ted_States

But I don't remember as strong a social reaction as is happening with COVID-19. What's different? This would have been at the beginning of the 4T, as opposed to the middle. We were just getting through a financial crisis that had already started, rather than dealing with one *caused* by the reaction to the pandemic. What else is different? Were we just no there in the Crisis mood yet, or intensely enough? Is it that COVID-19 has been so demonstrably bad for other countries (Italy in particular) so it is more ominous a threat?

One difference is in the quality of political leadership. Obama versus Trump? That is one of the starkest divides ever between competence and incompetence (Lincoln and either his predecessor and his successor; Hoover and FDR). A second is that Americans had a different focus -- getting the overall economy back on track in 2009. 

America was in a Crisis mood in 2009, but the economic elites recovered first and then did everything to get us out of a Crisis Mood. Just think of Tea Party ideology as an attempt to maintain the vices of a 3T with the ideological stagnation of a 1T. The resident has his flaws, but know well: he combines the worst features of 1T leadership with the worst of 3T leadership. If a wholesome 1T is a time of political entrenchment and social conformity it also comes with the smoothing of economic inequity. The Trump 1T-3T hybrid is an attempt to enforce political entrenchment and social conformity -- but at the same time the intensification of economic inequity. Such is sure failure because people do not see their suffering amid opulent splendor as a noble purpose.    

To be sure, Obama is a mature Reactive, the sort of leader that Americans usually end up with after the Crisis is over. But Obama has his virtues, and he is certainly less dangerous than a hot-head who stokes the furnace of extremism. (The worst possible sort of leader in a Crisis is an angry Reactive who uses his power to settle old scores, as was so with fascists and Stalinist operatives and stooges. Szalasi and Rakosi in Hungary illustrate the type from both fascist and Commie examples). At least Obama was good at calming things; Trump is not the sort to inculcate calm through any measure.

Donald Trump is not up to the task of reassuring us. He is the most polarizing figure of American politics since just before the Civil War, when people defending slavery tried to convince other Americans that slavery was itself a noble cause. He manifestly lacks empathy, caution, integrity, and humility that allow him to relate at all to people on the Other Side. If any consensus can form in America it will be that Donald Trump is a non-solution.

[David Horn]

(03-16-2020, 05:56 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The CDC has H1N1 as 60 million cases in the US causing 12,469 deaths for a %0.02 death rate as opposed to a %2.0 guess for the recent virus.  This could cause a very different level of panic.  A quick look at the precautions issued by the CDC at the time does not include anything like the shutdowns we are seeing recently.

The single largest difference between H1N1 and COVID-19 is the variability of response to the virus and how sick one has to be to infect others.  Some people -- even some elderly people thought to be most at risk -- simply have such mild symptoms, they can be considered well.  That doesn't prevent them from infecting others -- in fact it promotes it.  So a large part of the recommend response of social distancing and limited contact with others, has to do with our inability to know when we are at risk, or putting others at risk by our behaviors.  That also makes the economy much harder to maintain in normal fashion.

[beechnut79]

(03-16-2020, 01:22 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: I think there are two things here.

First, the things that the two sides are willing to wreck to sabotage the current administration are different.  The right was not willing to wreck the free market economy to damage Obama, just as the left would not now be willing to wreck the welfare state to damage Trump.  It would have taken a different crisis for the right to be willing to take advantage of it.

Second, yes, the crisis mood is much stronger now.  If this were actually a serious disease, we'd be watching the regeneracy in action.  Unfortunately it isn't, so I think this is be a false regeneracy, soon to be forgotten as we move on to the next one - unless someone can think of a way where this crisis can last for four or five years.

But if it wasn't a serious disease authorities wouldn't be ordering all these shutdowns now, would they. The last time we had a situation even remotely similar was during the winter of 1973-74 with the big energy crisis and gasoline shortages.

[sbarrera]

(03-16-2020, 05:56 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The CDC has H1N1 as 60 million cases in the US causing 12,469 deaths for a %0.02 death rate as opposed to a %2.0 guess for the recent virus.  This could cause a very different level of panic.  A quick look at the precautions issued by the CDC at the time does not include anything like the shutdowns we are seeing recently.

Good find, Bob.

[Warren Dew]

(03-18-2020, 09:57 AM)beechnut79 Wrote: But if it wasn't a serious disease authorities wouldn't be ordering all these shutdowns now, would they.

Why not?  "Never let a crisis go to waste".  This is what generational theory is all about:  the same event can be treated totally differently depending on when it falls in the generational cycle.

[Bob Butler 54]

(03-18-2020, 06:51 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(03-18-2020, 09:57 AM)beechnut79 Wrote: But if it wasn't a serious disease authorities wouldn't be ordering all these shutdowns now, would they.

Why not?  "Never let a crisis go to waste".  This is what generational theory is all about:  the same event can be treated totally differently depending on when it falls in the generational cycle.

Interesting. Is there a generational rhyme to how various governments are handling the virus? Supposedly we are four generations past World War II, and many civilizations should be in Crisis mode, but many might not be. Is there a correspondence between those who are likely not in Crisis and a lesser response? It seems more like the countries dominated by conservative philosophies are having trouble recognizing the need to see the problem, causing increased deaths.

Which if either hold?

[Warren Dew]

(03-18-2020, 07:19 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Interesting.  Is there a generational rhyme to how various governments are handling the virus?  Supposedly we are four generations past World War II, and many civilizations should be in Crisis mode, but many might not be.  Is there a correspondence between those who are likely not in Crisis and a lesser response?

WWII synchronized almost everyone.  The Arab world is out of sync, and there seems to be a lot less panic about it emanating from there.  Same goes for Africa.  Any other places that are out of sync?

[Bob Butler 54]

(03-18-2020, 07:26 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(03-18-2020, 07:19 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Interesting.  Is there a generational rhyme to how various governments are handling the virus?  Supposedly we are four generations past World War II, and many civilizations should be in Crisis mode, but many might not be.  Is there a correspondence between those who are likely not in Crisis and a lesser response?

WWII synchronized almost everyone.  The Arab world is out of sync, and there seems to be a lot less panic about it emanating from there.  Same goes for Africa.  Any other places that are out of sync?

The only country that stands out in the above is Iran, and they are a very different flavor of conservative. They are going with an Agricultural Age religion and autocracy flavored version of conservative. They were slow to recognize the problem, and let it get a head start. I have not paid enough attention as to how the rest of the Middle East is responding.

Israel is responding heavily, but they are more likely in sync generationally.

You are hearing less from the Middle East and Africa than elsewhere, but is it the virus has arrive more elsewhere? Like America, they have more of a pause before the problem becomes more obvious, less deniable if one keeps one's eyes closed? Is it a lack of action equals less testing equals less reported victims equals less press?

Has anyone been watching closely?

[beechnut79]

(03-18-2020, 06:51 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(03-18-2020, 09:57 AM)beechnut79 Wrote: But if it wasn't a serious disease authorities wouldn't be ordering all these shutdowns now, would they.

Why not?  "Never let a crisis go to waste".  This is what generational theory is all about:  the same event can be treated totally differently depending on when it falls in the generational cycle.

Might be fun to reverse course and speculate on what the reaction to the energy crisis and gasoline shortages might be if they occurred in the present time frame.

[Warren Dew]

(03-18-2020, 10:13 PM)beechnut79 Wrote: Might be fun to reverse course and speculate on what the reaction to the energy crisis and gasoline shortages might be if they occurred in the present time frame.

We'd be bombing and invading oil producers and taking over the oil, without a doubt.

[Bob Butler 54]

(03-18-2020, 11:08 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(03-18-2020, 10:13 PM)beechnut79 Wrote: Might be fun to reverse course and speculate on what the reaction to the energy crisis and gasoline shortages might be if they occurred in the present time frame.

We'd be bombing and invading oil producers and taking over the oil, without a doubt.

Would we?  We have learned better than to put boots on the ground in the Middle East.  The Middle East is Asia, almost, sorta, and they might have figured out that starting a land war in Asia is a bad idea.  We are working internal supplies of oil, so how would the energy crisis come about?  Early on in this Crisis we came up with an alternative solution to the energy problem.  While they might not put it that way, changing a culture by force is no longer seen as easy.

The failed regeneracy of Bush 43's wars did produce some important lessons learned after all.

[beechnut79]

(03-18-2020, 11:26 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(03-18-2020, 11:08 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(03-18-2020, 10:13 PM)beechnut79 Wrote: Might be fun to reverse course and speculate on what the reaction to the energy crisis and gasoline shortages might be if they occurred in the present time frame.

We'd be bombing and invading oil producers and taking over the oil, without a doubt.

Would we?  We have learned better than to put boots on the ground in the Middle East.  The Middle East is Asia, almost, sorta, and they might have figured out that starting a land war in Asia is a bad idea.  We are working internal supplies of oil, so how would the energy crisis come about?  Early on in this Crisis we came up with an alternative solution to the energy problem.  While they might not put it that way, changing a culture by force is no longer seen as easy.

The failed regeneracy of Bush 43's wars did produce some important lessons learned after all.

But the coronavirus is accomplishing that very notion of changing a culture by force.  Am curious to what you mean in closing paragraph.

[Warren Dew]

(03-18-2020, 07:51 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The only country that stands out in the above is Iran

Iran is in an Awakening, unlike most African countries which are entering an Unraveling.

In an Awakening, I think we'd expect the aging authorities to attempt to impose drastic measures, and for the younger population to ignore those measures.  That seems consistent with the pictures of crowds trying to break into pilgramage sites that have been closed by the authorities.

[Mickey123]

(03-16-2020, 05:56 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The CDC has H1N1 as 60 million cases in the US causing 12,469 deaths for a %0.02 death rate as opposed to a %2.0 guess for the recent virus.  This could cause a very different level of panic.  A quick look at the precautions issued by the CDC at the time does not include anything like the shutdowns we are seeing recently.

The death rate of coronavirus is not 2%.  It is probably in the neighborhood of .5%, maybe less.  The 2% figure is arrived at by only looking at the confirmed cases, instead of the total cases.  Most cases are not confirmed, as we are barely testing anyone.

[Bob Butler 54]

(03-20-2020, 02:45 AM)Mickey123 Wrote:

(03-16-2020, 05:56 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The CDC has H1N1 as 60 million cases in the US causing 12,469 deaths for a %0.02 death rate as opposed to a %2.0 guess for the recent virus.  This could cause a very different level of panic.  A quick look at the precautions issued by the CDC at the time does not include anything like the shutdowns we are seeing recently.

The death rate of coronavirus is not 2%.  It is probably in the neighborhood of .5%, maybe less.  The 2% figure is arrived at by only looking at the confirmed cases, instead of the total cases.  Most cases are not confirmed, as we are barely testing anyone.

Yes, I used the word 'guess' because the number is so unreliable.  I also note that the number got so high because the people of Wuhan in the early days did not know what they were up against and allowed their hospital system to become overwhelmed.  As time passes and lessons are shared, the number keeps going down.  Most countries are wise enough to implement the social distancing and isolation rules fairly early compared to Wuhan.

It is still much higher than the average flu, though.