Is it just me or is the 21st century....rather boring?

[Mickey123]

The last 20 years have been boring because you are looking at a late unraveling and the beginning of a crisis.

Soon enough, things will be very exciting, even more exciting than a global pandemic. The U.S. will be at war with China, or in the middle of a civil or revolutionary war, and excitement will be had by all.

[sbarrera]

(04-29-2020, 12:33 AM)Mickey123 Wrote: The last 20 years have been boring because you are looking at a late unraveling and the beginning of a crisis.  

Soon enough, things will be very exciting, even more exciting than a global pandemic.  The U.S. will be at war with China, or in the middle of a civil or revolutionary war, and excitement will be had by all.

I think allout war is an unlikely scenario, but a constitutional crisis in the U.S. with some milita violence is possible.

[Isoko]

Actually Mickey, I think you are onto something.
I don't think America is going to have a repeat of the civil war. The technology and the odds have changed so no longer can an opposing force  wield an army of the same variety to oppose you in the field.

However, if there is a major economic depression, there simply is not the glue anymore to hold the U.S together. I think there will be alot of movements for succession and building new countries.

There probably will be a war but it will be one big Northern Ireland type scenario with opposing groups (Alt Right orientated militias, Mexican Cartels, anti fascist squads, etc, etc) firing on each other with the Federal government struggling to maintain control.

Eventually it would end up with the country dividing into several states, very similar to how Ireland got their independence from the UK. So yeah, there will be conflict, it just depends on how much people want to fight.

[Blazkovitz]

(04-28-2020, 05:07 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: My 11 year old daughter might disagree:  to her, the difference between a horse drawn carriage and an automobile may seem smaller than the difference between a wireline phone that could only carry voice and a modern smartphone.

A smartphone is a bad computer, bad telephone and bad camera put together in one device. Hardly a breakthrough in technology. I suspect they will go out of fashion.

Mickey123 Wrote:Soon enough, things will be very exciting, even more exciting than a global pandemic. The U.S. will be at war with China, or in the middle of a civil or revolutionary war, and excitement will be had by all.

Wow, so you think wars and mayhem are exciting? Something must be wrong with you For me, the sooner the 1T starts the better.

[Bob Butler 54]

I don’t expect that if you learn something by observing one era, that that thing will not necessarily repeat in another. That leaves us with a problem now just transitioning from the Industrial Age to the Information Age. It is not that one shouldn’t look at trends from one time to carry over to another, but that you should be a bit dubious, a bit doubtful, fall back on some analysis, be sure nothing that distinguishes the two ages effects the phenomena you are predicting.

Computers, nukes and more trust in democracy are three of the big shifts I see in the Information Age. In the Industrial Age, sure, major powers would start a crisis war at the drop of a hat. The powers that be would not accept a major change without violence. The elites of the winning side would increase their influence, and thus encourage leaders of states who saw themselves as having an advantage to start something.

The 1960s seemed to change that. Transformation could occur through democracy, and did not require a crisis war. That held so far through the crisis.

I am not saying violence is obsolete, that holders of old autocratic power will always yield gracefully. Sometimes violence becomes inevitable. I just would not count on it always happening automatically as it seemed to do before the change.

[David Horn]

(04-29-2020, 08:00 AM)sbarrera Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 12:33 AM)Mickey123 Wrote: The last 20 years have been boring because you are looking at a late unraveling and the beginning of a crisis.  

Soon enough, things will be very exciting, even more exciting than a global pandemic.  The U.S. will be at war with China, or in the middle of a civil or revolutionary war, and excitement will be had by all.

I think allout war is an unlikely scenario, but a constitutional crisis in the U.S. with some milita violence is possible.

I agree.  All-out war is unthinkable these days. The most we can muster is a protracted proxy war with a small US contingent involved to make it our own.

[Warren Dew]

(04-29-2020, 09:14 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote: A smartphone is a bad computer, bad telephone and bad camera put together in one device. Hardly a breakthrough in technology.

I feel the same way.  My new adaptive kids don't.  Nor do they use their smartphones as computers, telephones, or cameras very often.

[David Horn]

(04-29-2020, 10:52 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 09:14 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote: A smartphone is a bad computer, bad telephone and bad camera put together in one device. Hardly a breakthrough in technology.

I feel the same way.  My new adaptive kids don't.  Nor do they use their smartphones as conputers, telephones, or cameras very often.

The computer part is implied, and not very interesting to the young. The telephone part is not important, but the communications portal certainly is: no Smartphone, no TikTok. The cameras are more like the modern pen and pencil.

Smartphones are getting so ubiquitous that their panache is now fading to gray.  That doesn't make them unimportant though.

[Eric the Green]

(04-28-2020, 09:44 PM)beechnut79 Wrote:

(04-28-2020, 05:07 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(04-28-2020, 03:57 PM)sbarrera Wrote: And 1870-1940 saw more technological change than any other era in human history, including our own.

To me, 1870-1940 seems to have seen more technological change than 1950-2020.

My 11 year old daughter might disagree:  to her, the difference between a horse drawn carriage and an automobile may seem smaller than the difference between a wireline phone that could only carry voice and a modern smartphone.

From television to the Internet, Facebook and more, I would say there have been rapid and extreme social and technological change especially since the 1980s. Hardly anybody today can imagine live before online and now smartphones.

Techno changes are not changes. It's the same obsession with technology that is now just business as usual.

And although materialists only see technical and economic changes as responsible for all other changes, much like materialist Marxists did, I not being a materialist do not subscribe to that view.

Only social and cultural change that moves us forward toward the visionary new-age and progressive ideals will not be "boring."

More tech change will be boring.

More wars will be boring.

More tyranny and more incompetent authoritarian demagogues will be boring.

More "alternative" pop culture that resembles more rap, heavy metal, grunge and core-punk will be boring.

More commercial pop culture that just features more sexy stars spouting superficial memes and recycled melodic hooks will be boring.

More lousy TV shows and violent movie blockbusters will be boring.

More conspiracy theories will be boring.

[Eric the Green]

(04-29-2020, 09:14 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote:

(04-28-2020, 05:07 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: My 11 year old daughter might disagree:  to her, the difference between a horse drawn carriage and an automobile may seem smaller than the difference between a wireline phone that could only carry voice and a modern smartphone.

A smartphone is a bad computer, bad telephone and bad camera put together in one device. Hardly a breakthrough in technology. I suspect they will go out of fashion.

Mickey123 Wrote:Soon enough, things will be very exciting, even more exciting than a global pandemic. The U.S. will be at war with China, or in the middle of a civil or revolutionary war, and excitement will be had by all.

Wow, so you think wars and mayhem are exciting? Something must be wrong with you For me, the sooner the 1T starts the better.

Except for the last sentence, I agree.

But, a revolution or a civil war could end up being "exciting" if it's the only way to bring about a newer world.

It's certainly a risky proposition though, with much boring mayhem involved. And we would probably be "fooled again"





Now, if a Beethoven, or a Peter Townshend and The Who, come along and make epic music out of it, that would be exciting!

Perhaps the backward phrasing of Beethoven's special magical up-and-down-the scale-moving passages in this piece linked here was not heard again in music until the synthesizer-rock passages in pieces like the above. To me, they symbolize the ongoing "reverberations" from the Awakenings I wrote about in the other posts I made. Will our current social moment eventually generate this level of inspiration?

Quote: (Steve Barrera)

I think all out war is an unlikely scenario, but a constitutional crisis in the U.S. with some milita violence is possible.

That's what I think will happen.

[pbrower2a]

No shooting war, but the danger is just as real, if of people who usually are not of the age of most soldiers.

[Blazkovitz]

(04-29-2020, 03:42 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 09:14 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote:

Mickey123 Wrote:Soon enough, things will be very exciting, even more exciting than a global pandemic. The U.S. will be at war with China, or in the middle of a civil or revolutionary war, and excitement will be had by all.

Wow, so you think wars and mayhem are exciting? Something must be wrong with you For me, the sooner the 1T starts the better.

Except for the last sentence, I agree.

But, a revolution or a civil war could end up being "exciting" if it's the only way to bring about a newer world.

It's certainly a risky proposition though, with much boring mayhem involved. And we would probably be "fooled again"

The longer the 4T lasts and the more mayhem it involves, the more collectivistic the 1T consensus becomes. The only exception I can think of is the American Revolution, though after reading how S&H described the "rational masonic brotherhood", I doubt if it was individualistic. Was it collectivistic, or merely communitarian?

David Horn Wrote:The computer part is implied, and not very interesting to the young. The telephone part is not important, but the communications portal certainly is: no Smartphone, no TikTok.

All the chat apps are just a faster form of email, not fundamentally different from what my dad was doing on his computer in 1994. Social media can be browsed from a computer as well, so when a smartphone displays Instagram, it does a computer's job.

[David Horn]

(05-01-2020, 04:23 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote:

David Horn Wrote:The computer part is implied, and not very interesting to the young. The telephone part is not important, but the communications portal certainly is: no Smartphone, no TikTok.

All the chat apps are just a faster form of email, not fundamentally different from what my dad was doing on his computer in 1994. Social media can be browsed from a computer as well, so when a smartphone displays Instagram, it does a computer's job.

Do you have teen-age girls you interact with regularly? Tik-Tok is a form of performance art. We get short videos several times a week from our granddaughters. Their phone is just their studio camera, microphone and editor. Hitting upload is just assumed.

[Bob Butler 54]

(05-01-2020, 08:01 AM)David Horn Wrote: Do you have teen-age girls you interact with regularly? Tik-Tok is a form of performance art. We get short videos several times a week from our granddaughters. Their phone is just their studio camera, microphone and editor. Hitting upload is just assumed.

And here I thought Tic Tok was Telzey Amberton's very dangerous pet cat.

[Eric the Green]

(05-01-2020, 04:23 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 03:42 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 09:14 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote:

Mickey123 Wrote:Soon enough, things will be very exciting, even more exciting than a global pandemic. The U.S. will be at war with China, or in the middle of a civil or revolutionary war, and excitement will be had by all.

Wow, so you think wars and mayhem are exciting? Something must be wrong with you For me, the sooner the 1T starts the better.

Except for the last sentence, I agree.

But, a revolution or a civil war could end up being "exciting" if it's the only way to bring about a newer world.

It's certainly a risky proposition though, with much boring mayhem involved. And we would probably be "fooled again"

The longer the 4T lasts and the more mayhem it involves, the more collectivistic the 1T consensus becomes. The only exception I can think of is the American Revolution, though after reading how S&H described the "rational masonic brotherhood", I doubt if it was individualistic. Was it collectivistic, or merely communitarian?

It's quite possible that a 1T after mayhem becomes more collectivistic. Is that the same as boring? Not sure. Depends how boring the collective is. Napoleon's collectivism was very exciting, for example. Kenneth Clark said Napoleon made the sublime visible and within reach. Reconstruction was pretty exciting. The 50s were boring, but there was the excitement of the Cold War and the Space Race, I guess.

[Kinser79]

(04-29-2020, 12:33 AM)Mickey123 Wrote: The last 20 years have been boring because you are looking at a late unraveling and the beginning of a crisis.  

Soon enough, things will be very exciting, even more exciting than a global pandemic.  The U.S. will be at war with China, or in the middle of a civil or revolutionary war, and excitement will be had by all.

Or more likely he is expecting the wrong things.  If he is expecting a slow slide into a saeculum of one crisis to the next then he would be seeing the 4T of a  Mega-Unraveling playing out exactly like it is.

I also discount the possibility of open war with China.  It would devastate their economy far more than ours. Their rice is paid for by selling cheap shit to Americans dumb enough to waste their dollars on it.  A civil war or revolution is possible.  Personally I'd like nothing better than to round up the Blues around them and give them a shave with a National Razor but I have a history of being a little extreme.

[Bob Butler 54]

(05-12-2020, 06:50 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: Personally I'd like nothing better than to round up the Blues around them and give them a shave with a National Razor but I have a history of being a little extreme.

Just a little.  

[Kinser79]

The idea that smartphones are a fad is to misunderstand what they are. Horseless carriages, moving pictures, talking pictures and the tee-vee were all once called fads too. Of those only one actually proved to be a fad--the tee-vee--but only because we have superior methods of doing the same thing with more multipurpose technology. Seriously, were it not for my Boomer mother we wouldn't even have a tee-vee in the house (excluding the ones connected to a gaming console).

[Bob Butler 54]

Yah.  One of my ancestors gave up his horseless carriage company as the parent company was getting so involved in the horseless carriage fad.  I think it was called Studebaker?

[Kinser79]

(05-12-2020, 06:56 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(05-12-2020, 06:50 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: Personally I'd like nothing better than to round up the Blues around them and give them a shave with a National Razor but I have a history of being a little extreme.

Just a little.  

Yes, just a little.

Mind you I'm still encouraging my niece and nephew to study their Malcolm, Garvey, Huey.

(05-12-2020, 07:07 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Yah.  One of my ancestors gave up his horseless carriage company as the parent company was getting so involved in the horseless carriage fad.  I think it was called Studebaker?

Indeed.  I would argue that the smart phone is trans-formative as it is a one stop communications device.  It will be a general purpose multi-function electronic device that nearly everyone has and uses.

Mind you this is coming from someone who has only had one since November at the earliest.