Neil Howe twitter thread

[Dan '82]

This is a thread where people can post Neil Howe tweets that they find interesting.

[David Horn]

(07-19-2016, 09:22 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:

(07-19-2016, 02:28 PM)Dan Wrote: This is a thread where people can post Neil Howe tweets that they find interesting.

12 - 15 very difficult years to go.

This is one hell of a 4T.

If the last 4T (or the preceding one) had run that long, I might agree.  I don't.  I follow the old saw that the candle that burns brightest is the first to burn out.  2Ts and 4Ts tend to be very intense, and use less than their allotted time in the saeculum.  I agree with the original premise that we're close to the middle now.

[FLBones]

I do agree with him that the 4T began in 2008 however I don't think we still have 15 additional years to go. We'll be in the 1T by 2030 for sure.

[Eric the Green]

(07-21-2016, 05:35 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-19-2016, 09:22 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:

(07-19-2016, 02:28 PM)Dan Wrote: This is a thread where people can post Neil Howe tweets that they find interesting.

12 - 15 very difficult years to go.

This is one hell of a 4T.

If the last 4T (or the preceding one) had run that long, I might agree.  I don't.  I follow the old saw that the candle that burns brightest is the first to burn out.  2Ts and 4Ts tend to be very intense, and use less than their allotted time in the saeculum.  I agree with the original premise that we're close to the middle now.

The latter point about 2Ts doesn't quite fit. By S&H's reckoning they all had a normal length or slightly longer. It might be true about 4Ts, but I think the Uranus Return cycle is likely to hold and extend the 4T past 2027. It has been very accurate. Also, if the 4T ends sooner, it's more likely to be a failure, as it will be if Trump is the defacto GC or whatever you call the leader who shapes the 4T (not to mention GOP control of congress and statehouses). A 4T that extends through the 2020s is the only hope of a positive 4T now. Otherwise, you might as well write the obit for the USA (and maybe the world) right now.