4T = 9.11.01 -> 11.04.20

[jleagans]

Calling it ! (And praying for it )

9/11 turned us down a dark road of polarization and enmity amidst the Boomer cognitive decline feeding it all.

This election the millennial soldiers save democracy itself and usher in the 1T.

[Warren Dew]

So you're saying the left is going to come around and support Trump? Because Biden/Harris would most certainly continue the polarization.

[Bob Butler 54]

(10-21-2020, 02:41 PM)jleagans Wrote: Calling it ! (And praying for it )

9/11 turned us down a dark road of polarization and enmity amidst the Boomer cognitive decline feeding it all.

This election the millennial soldiers save democracy itself and usher in the 1T.

September 11 and Bush 43's Middle East wars did act very similar to a crisis. The question was stay the course against cut and run. The answer was not decisive as to the red blue split. You could change a foreign country's culture by force, but they didn't do it right. The answer to the basic question was to become distinctly reluctant to put boots on the ground. Trying to commit to violence and cultural change while fighting proxy war left the country in an economic mess. The red blue debate was not resolved, fell into a continued unraveling. While the traditional role of a crisis in making us war adverse was there, the endless debate between factions continued. A crisis? Good question.

Either way, the crisis will likely not end on Election Day. Trump is apt to try something during his lame duck period. The bug has to be cured, the racial violence checked and the economy put together again. This is not trivial even with science valued and a united crises level culture and government.

The never again period is generally considered part of the crisis. How do you prevent Trump and the fantasy reality from happening again? I can see WHO being put on steroids, a large anti racism resolve and fact checking being made a high virtue.

Your proposal is somewhat fast even putting the environment as a half hearted effort checked by the bad economy of the virus. As Batman suggested in the Justice League film, the doomsday clock will have it's snooze button hit yet again. It won't be put off so well come the awakening.

And there is Warren's comment. There will always be a few clinging to the old values, not seeing the country change, dismissing the theory. I don't think it will be relevant. The shift from selfishness to sacrifice for the community will be ignored by a few, but not by the whole. There are none so blind as those who don't want to see.

[jleagans]

The Rs have destroyed themselves, the crisis is ending with Dems taking all the levers of power this cycle , likely for the decade .

The real battle will now shift to the Progressive vs Democrat battle that is the future of our two party system .

[Bob Butler 54]

(10-21-2020, 08:12 PM)jleagans Wrote: The Rs have destroyed themselves, the crisis is ending with Dems taking all the levers of power this cycle , likely for the decade .

The real battle will now shift to the Progressive vs Democrat battle that is the future of our two party system .

It is not clear that the strongest of the conservative factions will be stronger than the weaker of the progressive - establishment pairing of the Democrats. We have to see about how much credibility is left among the GOP, and how together the Democrats can be. I'm not ready to place bets yet.

[Warren Dew]

(10-21-2020, 05:28 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: And there is Warren's comment.  There will always be a few clinging to the old values, not seeing the country change, dismissing the theory.  I don't think it will be relevant.  The shift from selfishness to sacrifice for the community will be ignored by a few, but not by the whole.

Exactly why polarization would continue under Biden/Harris:  they are the epitome of selfishness over sacrifice.

Quote:There are none so blind as those who don't want to see.

Indeed.  You're an excellent example.

[pbrower2a]

(10-21-2020, 08:12 PM)jleagans Wrote: The Rs have destroyed themselves, the crisis is ending with Dems taking all the levers of power this cycle , likely for the decade .

The real battle will now shift to the Progressive vs Democrat battle that is the future of our two party system .

I see Republicans associated with the Lincoln Project (and they are conservatives) finding a home within the Democratic Party. Trump is not a conservative; he is a fascist. It is as wrong to confuse conservatives with fascists as it is to confuse liberals and social democrats with Commies. 

We could be seeing a New Party System forming under our noses, as often happens during a Crisis Era. This may go through a strange version of an Era of Good Feeling.

[jleagans]

(10-22-2020, 01:11 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(10-21-2020, 08:12 PM)jleagans Wrote: The Rs have destroyed themselves, the crisis is ending with Dems taking all the levers of power this cycle , likely for the decade .

The real battle will now shift to the Progressive vs Democrat battle that is the future of our two party system .

I see Republicans associated with the Lincoln Project (and they are conservatives) finding a home within the Democratic Party. Trump is not a conservative; he is a fascist. It is as wrong to confuse conservatives with fascists as it is to confuse liberals and social democrats with Commies. 

We could be seeing a New Party System forming under our noses, as often happens during a Crisis Era. This may go through a strange version of an Era of Good Feeling.

Yep this is the core of my argument , Democrats actively expanding and picking up Con voters, but adherence to voter suppression strategy has blocked Rs from doing the same . The Lincoln project thinks they are going to reclaim the R party but that’s never how this goes , Dems are so happy to keep them they MODERATE to appease , leading the progressive flank to eventually break off .

[jleagans]

Future two party system is Progressives vs Democrats ...and the saeculum turns ...

[jleagans]

This is overall probably not right anymore since it wasn't a landslide, but possibly. Seems like the national mood is turning.

[Eric the Green]

(10-21-2020, 04:36 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: So you're saying the left is going to come around and support Trump?  Because Biden/Harris would most certainly continue the polarization.

You would like it if we just capitulate to the oligarchy and their evil ways, I know. Thanks goodness the wicked male witch is gone. But the witch of the west (McConnell) is still there. Polarization will continue because of him.

[Bob Butler 54]

(11-08-2020, 04:43 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(10-21-2020, 04:36 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: So you're saying the left is going to come around and support Trump?  Because Biden/Harris would most certainly continue the polarization.

You would like it if we just capitulate to the oligarchy and their evil ways, I know. Thanks goodness the wicked male witch is gone. But the witch of the west (McConnell) is still there. Polarization will continue because of him.

The AP reports at least a few Republican protests, though they are drowned out in the blue media at least by reports of big city celebrations and joy. So far, no violence. No big storm of red violence refusing to accept the result. The predictions of a civil war starting is thus far unfounded. It is more in line with my observation that the red are firm on their issues, but accept the results of democracy.

Maddow was surprised at how little a deal it was that a president would contest an election and not go along with a peaceful transition of power. The mood seems to be 'you expected him to do otherwise?' rather than 'over my dead body!' We should watch to see if the various red violent actors go crazy in the near future, but so far they haven't.

McConnell went obstructionist with a black president and stayed obstructionist though Trump. Not absolutely clear it will continue, but I am assuming he will try. Thing is if a few senators relieved at Trump's absence go with putting country ahead of party and buy into the idea of breaking unity, it won't work. We'll see how badly the Republicans want to distance themselves from Trump.

[Bob Butler 54]

(10-27-2020, 01:36 AM)jleagans Wrote: Future two party system is Progressives vs Democrats ...and the saeculum turns ...

Not clear that whichever faction comes out on top of the battle for the Republican Party - establishment, Trumpist or never Trumper - will be stronger and more important than a hypothetical Progressive v Democrat divide.  So far Joe is promising the progressive agenda.  We will have to wait and see.

[Warren Dew]

(11-08-2020, 04:43 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(10-21-2020, 04:36 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: So you're saying the left is going to come around and support Trump?  Because Biden/Harris would most certainly continue the polarization.

You would like it if we just capitulate to the oligarchy and their evil ways, I know.

Actually that's why the Right objects to Biden.  You're fooling yourself if you think Biden isn't the oligarchy personified.

[Warren Dew]

(11-08-2020, 05:25 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: No big storm of red violence refusing to accept the result.

That's because we don't have a result yet.  Arizona is on track to flip back to Trump now that the Republican mail ballots are being counted, despite the press calling it for Biden when Trump was first ahead by something like 20 percentage points. Pennsylvania has a good chance of going for Trump if the illegal ballots can be invalidated through legal action. There was massive vote fraud in Michigan, too, though it may be harder to remediate.

[Bob Butler 54]

(11-08-2020, 01:37 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(11-08-2020, 05:25 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: No big storm of red violence refusing to accept the result.

That's because we don't have a result yet.  Arizona is on track to flip back to Trump now that the Republican mail ballots are being counted, despite the press calling it for Biden when Trump was first ahead by something like 20 percentage points.  Pennsylvania has a good chance of going for Trump if the illegal ballots can be invalidated through legal action.  There was massive vote fraud in Michigan, too, though it may be harder to remediate.

Until there is evidence supporting any of that, I will quietly snicker at the red tendency to believe their own lies.

[Eric the Green]

(10-21-2020, 08:12 PM)jleagans Wrote: The Rs have destroyed themselves, the crisis is ending with Dems taking all the levers of power this cycle , likely for the decade .

The real battle will now shift to the Progressive vs Democrat battle that is the future of our two party system .

The 4T started in 2008 and is only half over. The Dems have only 2 levers of power, and not the other 2. This crisis is a long way from being over, and boomers are still around; lots of em. And there is still a red-blue battle among them; they are not all red. The majority of core boomers voted blue this time. There is still some faint memories of those days not so long ago when boomers had ideals and worked for them.

[jleagans]

(11-08-2020, 05:07 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(10-21-2020, 08:12 PM)jleagans Wrote: The Rs have destroyed themselves, the crisis is ending with Dems taking all the levers of power this cycle , likely for the decade .

The real battle will now shift to the Progressive vs Democrat battle that is the future of our two party system .

The 4T started in 2008 and is only half over. The Dems have only 2 levers of power, and not the other 2. This crisis is a long way from being over, and boomers are still around; lots of em. And there is still a red-blue battle among them; they are not all red. The majority of core boomers voted blue this time. There is still some faint memories of those days not so long ago when boomers had ideals and worked for them.

Yeah I disagree on the timings, the national mood made its dark pivot to overprotecting the children of crisis after 9/11.  

I DO think we may be looking at a possible disruption to the normal course of the saeculum as the old are sticking around much longer, making it harder for the transfer to millennials to occur.

Boomers voted red, they may have SHIFTED a bit blue from 2016 but they still offset millennials.

[jleagans]

Also, everyone here should check out the "generationology" reddit. Its humorous to me that the majority here believes in later 4T starts, while those folks all buy the #pewlies 1996.

[pbrower2a]

(11-08-2020, 08:13 PM)jleagans Wrote: Also, everyone here should check out the "generationology" reddit.  Its humorous to me that the majority here believes in later 4T starts, while those folks all buy the #pewlies 1996.

Panics of 1857, 1929, and 2008 indicate that the supposed Good Times of the 3T that result from a speculative boom serving multitudes well have come to an end when there are no more buyers. The panic may not be the cause; it is the symptom of a reality in which the bubble is devouring wealth and calling it an investment or prosperity. Bubbles divert investments from plant and equipment that produce things and create jobs. Once the illusion of easy money vanishes, people can no longer sweep other problems under the rug. Political resentments surface upon any pretext as cause for revolutions, coups, pogroms, usurpations, and political splintering.

We've had it relatively easy this time. Maybe we backed the banks faster this time to stop the bank runs that gutted the shaky economy of 1931 and 1932. The fault with that is that we rescued the most reactionary interests in America, the ones whose idea of reform is to enrich the economic elites.