4T = 9.11.01 -> 11.04.20

[Bob Butler 54]

(11-08-2020, 08:12 PM)jleagans Wrote:

(11-08-2020, 05:07 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(10-21-2020, 08:12 PM)jleagans Wrote: The Rs have destroyed themselves, the crisis is ending with Dems taking all the levers of power this cycle , likely for the decade .

The real battle will now shift to the Progressive vs Democrat battle that is the future of our two party system .

The 4T started in 2008 and is only half over. The Dems have only 2 levers of power, and not the other 2. This crisis is a long way from being over, and boomers are still around; lots of em. And there is still a red-blue battle among them; they are not all red. The majority of core boomers voted blue this time. There is still some faint memories of those days not so long ago when boomers had ideals and worked for them.

Yeah I disagree on the timings, the national mood made its dark pivot to overprotecting the children of crisis after 9/11.  

I DO think we may be looking at a possible disruption to the normal course of the saeculum as the old are sticking around much longer, making it harder for the transfer to millennials to occur.

Boomers voted red, they may have SHIFTED a bit blue from 2016 but they still offset millennials.

September 11 and the corresponding Middle Eastern 'stay the course' against 'cut and run' decision still looks like a crisis to me.  Half a crisis, anyway, the military part.  Among other things it taught the American people to shun wars as a crisis usually does.  Changing cultures with bullets was not an obvious win.  It happened a little early, and had something to do with the economic crash in 2008, but it did not end the crisis but returned us to a unraveling state after putting a bunch of boots on the ground was rejected.  The mood afterward was definitely unraveling, not high.  I think Obama was concentrating more on being the most gracious black president possible, not enough on hope and change.

We will solve or establish pattens of solving problems in the crisis.  It will not take that long to get a COVID vaccine, or to ease the immunities the racist violent police currently count on, but it will take much longer to solve global warming.  I can see us hitting the key problems of this crisis well before 2030.

I can also see the next prophet generation and awakening declaring we didn't do enough on global warming.  I think the elites and governments are quietly keeping fusion not quite ready yet, but come the awakening they won't be given much choice.  

If the unravelling ran a bit long, I suspect the next few turnings will be short.

Then again, I care much more about values and cultures, less about generations and upbringings.

[Eric the Green]

(11-08-2020, 08:12 PM)jleagans Wrote:

(11-08-2020, 05:07 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(10-21-2020, 08:12 PM)jleagans Wrote: The Rs have destroyed themselves, the crisis is ending with Dems taking all the levers of power this cycle , likely for the decade .

The real battle will now shift to the Progressive vs Democrat battle that is the future of our two party system .

The 4T started in 2008 and is only half over. The Dems have only 2 levers of power, and not the other 2. This crisis is a long way from being over, and boomers are still around; lots of em. And there is still a red-blue battle among them; they are not all red. The majority of core boomers voted blue this time. There is still some faint memories of those days not so long ago when boomers had ideals and worked for them.

Yeah I disagree on the timings, the national mood made its dark pivot to overprotecting the children of crisis after 9/11.  

You make some good points. Thanks for your views, and for an opportunity to correct them

The social mood did not change. We did not live in a crisis country, since Bush told people to keep shopping and go on as normal, and no mobilization of society occurred. I can't see any protection of children increasing as a result of more bombing raids in a land half way around the world, and adding more inspections at airports.

Quote:I DO think we may be looking at a possible disruption to the normal course of the saeculum as the old are sticking around much longer, making it harder for the transfer to millennials to occur.

Boomers voted red, they may have SHIFTED a bit blue from 2016 but they still offset millennials.

It depends on which boomers you mean. I don't know anymore where the graph I saw is, but it showed core boomers voting blue. There are a lot of us, and the sixties made a deep impression on us. We awakened big time. However, early Eisenhower-baby boomers (although some of them were hippie and left leaders), and late boomers and those who are really Xers (those born 1957-1964), are more conservative. Jonesers (late boomers and early Xers) and core Xers are the most conservative voting block. They are Reagan-babies.

Older people are sticking around longer. According to S&H, Silents were supposed to give up power when a 4T starts. Now we have a Silent president-elect, a Silent speaker of the House, and a Silent Senate leader! (of course, they are all war-baby boomer cuspers too, very late-wave Silent). So, much the same will happen in the later 4T years (though 2028 at least) and into the 1T. Boomers will still be in power. This will make the early 1T years seem more like a 4T, just as the early 4T years have seemed like an extension of the 3T (and this is still the case-- even at a time you suggest the 4T is about to end!). Millennials are not supposed to take full power until the 2T arrives. The 1T is mainly supposed to be the province of nomads like Truman and Eisenhower. It's a time to tamp things down. At the end of the previous 1T though, a civic named JFK did take power, and the GI generation proceeded to hold power until Bill Clinton brought the Boomers to power in 1993, well into our long 3T.

The astrology supports this. The Neptune cycle is twice that of Uranus, so there's a double rhythm playing out. I used this to predict a divided country in the 2020s for the USA, similar to civil war times (the 1850s and 60s). And in the 1865-1877 1T period, much of the civil war mood persisted in the Gilded Age 1T because Reconstruction had not ended. So it will be in the 2029-2035 period.

[pbrower2a]

(11-09-2020, 05:45 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(11-08-2020, 08:12 PM)jleagans Wrote:

(11-08-2020, 05:07 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(10-21-2020, 08:12 PM)jleagans Wrote: The Rs have destroyed themselves, the crisis is ending with Dems taking all the levers of power this cycle , likely for the decade .

The real battle will now shift to the Progressive vs Democrat battle that is the future of our two party system .

The 4T started in 2008 and is only half over. The Dems have only 2 levers of power, and not the other 2. This crisis is a long way from being over, and boomers are still around; lots of em. And there is still a red-blue battle among them; they are not all red. The majority of core boomers voted blue this time. There is still some faint memories of those days not so long ago when boomers had ideals and worked for them.

Yeah I disagree on the timings, the national mood made its dark pivot to overprotecting the children of crisis after 9/11.  

You make some good points. Thanks for your views, and for an opportunity to correct them

The social mood did not change. We did not live in a crisis country, since Bush told people to keep shopping and go on as normal, and no mobilization of society occurred. I can't see any protection of children increasing as a result of more bombing raids in a land half way around the world, and adding more inspections at airports.

Many around 2001 may have wanted a Crisis response to 9/11 but did not get it. I remember thinking that this was the Pearl Harbor incident of my lifetime. But 9/11, traumatic as it was, was a one-time event that could not have been repeated. The Pearl Harbor attack was part of a military campaign in which a Great Power sought to gain complete hegemony in the western Pacific basin from Alaska in the north to Tasmania and New Zealand in the south. How many divisions did al-Qaeda have? There would be no Crisis war.  

Quote:

Quote:I DO think we may be looking at a possible disruption to the normal course of the saeculum as the old are sticking around much longer, making it harder for the transfer to millennials to occur.

Boomers voted red, they may have SHIFTED a bit blue from 2016 but they still offset millennials.

It depends on which boomers you mean. I don't know anymore where the graph I saw is, but it showed core boomers voting blue. There are a lot of us, and the sixties made a deep impression on us. We awakened big time. However, early Eisenhower-baby boomers (although some of them were hippie and left leaders), and late boomers and those who are really Xers (those born 1957-1964), are more conservative. Jonesers (late boomers and early Xers) and core Xers are the most conservative voting block. They are Reagan-babies.

Older people are sticking around longer. According to S&H, Silents were supposed to give up power when a 4T starts. Now we have a Silent president-elect, a Silent speaker of the House, and a Silent Senate leader! (of course, they are all war-baby boomer cuspers too, very late-wave Silent). So, much the same will happen in the later 4T years (though 2028 at least) and into the 1T. Boomers will still be in power. This will make the early 1T years seem more like a 4T, just as the early 4T years have seemed like an extension of the 3T (and this is still the case-- even at a time you suggest the 4T is about to end!). Millennials are not supposed to take full power until the 2T arrives. The 1T is mainly supposed to be the province of nomads like Truman and Eisenhower. It's a time to tamp things down. At the end of the previous 1T though, a civic named JFK did take power, and the GI generation proceeded to hold power until Bill Clinton brought the Boomers to power in 1993, well into our long 3T.[/quote]

Howe and Strauss explained the intensity of the cycle by reminding us that the worst features of any era result from the sudden absence of the qualities of the currently-missing generational archetype of the Elder generation of the last era. Thus a conformist High appears as the elderly Idealist generation is no longer around to put some controversy in life, and almost everything goes into autopilot. Nobody questions the assumptions of a society intent solely on material gain and indulgence. An Awakening might bring back the controversies anew, but at the cost of pragmatism. Young adults ignore children because extending childlike characteristics into adulthood becomes fashionable... at the expense of the real children of the time. People quit pretending to have any high purpose in anything that they do other than self-indulgent gain and hedonism in an Unraveling as the Civic generation of the time (the Gilded took the role and kept it until the first decade of the Twentieth century, and the GI's faded out of that role in the 1990's) vanishes and with that goes the people who have some idea of how to organize society. People devour the cakes, and the circuses become increasingly depraved. In a Crisis, the old Adaptive generation that had been expert at compromise and process vanishes, and all Hell can break loose. 

The GI Generation put a monkey-wrench into the old pattern by remaining economically, intellectually, and politically active as long as they could. To the extent that was possible they remained physically fit and mentally sharp. They resisted being consigned to the "Home for the Golden Years" as much as possible. The Silent have done much the same, and so will almost certainly Boomers. This new pattern allows there to be four active adult generations at any one time instead of three. 

So if this Crisis Era had been like others there would be no lingering late-wave Silent to mitigate tendencies for apocalypse. The pe3ople in charge would probably be late-wave Boomers like Stephen Spielberg in culture and Amy Klobuchar in politics. But we have just cast off a first-wave Boomer  for a late-wave Silent as President. "Seventy" may be the new "Fifty", but Eighty is still Eighty. OK, Donald Trump exemplifies the worst characteristics of an Idealist generation (ruthlessness, arrogance, and selfishness) with none of the virtues (principle, culture, and erudition), so his political rise relates to people seeing his vices as wish-fulfillment when electing him and scariness when they vote him out. Four adult generations at one time mean that all four generational archetypes can be present in adult life at once, if in very different roles based on where they are in their life cycles.     

This said, the role of the Silent in America is approaching an end. Joe Biden, Mitch McConnell, and Nancy Pelosi are the end of the line for Silent leadership. There will be no high-profile Silent to replace them in their roles when these people leave their mortal coils. Just think of Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Very soon we will start to see a Silent-like generation taking new roles in the American economy and start voting in great numbers... but they will not be the leaders of anything. They will be the "carriers of water and hewers of wood" as all young generations get their introduction into society before proving themselves capable of something else. The role of the Adaptive will go from people in their eighties and nineties to people in their twenties, and this will itself be awkward -- but not as awkward as having a time in which society goes from having plenty of powerful and active Adaptives through having none and then having them emerge with no guidance from competent elders having much in common with them. Joe Biden has obvious virtues as a leader... and then much more humanity than Donald Trump. This said, a certain denizen of the White House a few years ago



has far more human virtues than you-know-who now in the White House.

Quote:The astrology supports this. The Neptune cycle is twice that of Uranus, so there's a double rhythm playing out. I used this to predict a divided country in the 2020s for the USA, similar to civil war times (the 1850s and 60s). And in the 1865-1877 1T period, much of the civil war mood persisted in the Gilded Age 1T because Reconstruction had not ended. So it will be in the 2029-2035 period.

You must be fitting astrological charts to reality instead of the way the way the usual cranks and hustlers do.  Uranus does have a cycle of length close to a human lifespan, and in a way I could imagine the last people who could remember hearing about the Gay Nineties and recognizing that "Gay Nineties" had nothing to do with homosexuality could be relating such as late as the 2060's or so (roughly a Neptune cycle?) If astrology has any value then it is as a timing mechanism in the sense that a clock or calendar is.  

The long human lifespan is a key measurement in Howe and Strauss methodology.

[Bob Butler 54]

(11-09-2020, 07:53 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: Many around 2001 may have wanted a Crisis response to 9/11 but did not get it. I remember thinking that this was the Pearl Harbor incident of my lifetime. But 9/11, traumatic as it was, was a one-time event that could not have been repeated. The Pearl Harbor attack was part of a military campaign in which a Great Power sought to gain complete hegemony in the western Pacific basin from Alaska in the north to Tasmania and New Zealand in the south. How many divisions did al-Qaeda have? There would be no Crisis war. 

I agree that it was not a crisis war, but for a long time as soon as a division had recovered from a deployment it had to ready for another now. That filled the function usually of a crisis war, making us war averse likely for living memory, reluctant to put boots on the ground.

[David Horn]

(11-08-2020, 10:25 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: If the unravelling ran a bit long, I suspect the next few turnings will be short.

Then again, I care much more about values and cultures, less about generations and upbringings.

If the timing changes greatly, the theory will be dead.  The timing of generations is still dependent on people coming of age, and that's not going to vary all that much.  I do agree that something is afoot, but what it is is hard to say.  My preference: the 4T is a bust, and the next 2T is explosive -- but that's just a guess at this point.

[Bob Butler 54]

(11-09-2020, 11:35 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(11-08-2020, 10:25 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: If the unravelling ran a bit long, I suspect the next few turnings will be short.

Then again, I care much more about values and cultures, less about generations and upbringings.

If the timing changes greatly, the theory will be dead.  The timing of generations is still dependent on people coming of age, and that's not going to vary all that much.  I do agree that something is afoot, but what it is is hard to say.  My preference: the 4T is a bust, and the next 2T is explosive -- but that's just a guess at this point.

The crisis has already made us conflict adverse.  If Biden manages to endure until a vaccine comes out and limit the immunity some police assume to kill people of color, the 4T will not be a total bust.  We will see if the persistent attitude of adversity and conflict continues, or whether we get a shift to actually solving the problems confronting the culture.

But I am suspecting an explosive 2T, that the economy will be enough of a problem that the work on global warming will be judged poorly by the next bunch of prophets.

[Eric the Green]

(11-09-2020, 07:53 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(11-09-2020, 05:45 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: The astrology supports this. The Neptune cycle is twice that of Uranus, so there's a double rhythm playing out. I used this to predict a divided country in the 2020s for the USA, similar to civil war times (the 1850s and 60s). And in the 1865-1877 1T period, much of the civil war mood persisted in the Gilded Age 1T because Reconstruction had not ended. So it will be in the 2029-2035 period.

You must be fitting astrological charts to reality instead of the way the way the usual cranks and hustlers do.  Uranus does have a cycle of length close to a human lifespan, and in a way I could imagine the last people who could remember hearing about the Gay Nineties and recognizing that "Gay Nineties" had nothing to do with homosexuality could be relating such as late as the 2060's or so (roughly a Neptune cycle?) If astrology has any value then it is as a timing mechanism in the sense that a clock or calendar is.  

The long human lifespan is a key measurement in Howe and Strauss methodology.

Perhaps you remember that a leading astrology philosopher, Dane Rudhyar, actually said that the meaning of Uranus is derived from the fact that its orbit of 84 years is equal to a normal span of human life. That which goes beyond this span is typically "surprising" and new to people; thus its meaning as what is unexpected and inventive. In a passage of The Fourth Turning, the authors defined an archetypal saeculum as 84 years long, without any reference to Uranus.

[jleagans]

One note on 9/11 being a "mood changer", the '90's are often viewed through the "end of history" post-Cold War perspective, and 9/11 is the moment that fully set that aside.