Acting pre-seasonally; preparing for the High

[LTsmith]

Hello, long time lurker, first time poster here.

Been thinking a lot lately about how to prepare for 1) the coming Crisis climax, and 2) the coming High. In The Fourth Turning, S&H make reference to acting or behaving "pre-seasonally" -- that is, in a way that reflects or demands the nature or needs of the upcoming turning. (I think I've got that term right; please correct if I'm wrong. Too lazy to check the book.) Indeed, this is part of what is needed to bring it on. And it's not necessarily a deliberate choice in all cases; many typical members of a generation act this way based purely on instinct.

I am a 1989 Millennial in Canada and I'm more or less convinced that a cold civil war fueled by digital disinformation is coming south of the border within the next couple of years.

I don't have to do much, personally, to prepare for an outright civil American conflict up here in my snowy neck of the woods. My countryfolk have the privilege of being influenced by American culture but not directly impacted by its fallout. Yes, we have our share of problems as well, but not nearly at the same intensity.

What I *would* like to prepare for, however, is the High. Even before reading S&H, I've always been civic-minded. I would like to position myself and my family to take the best advantage of and contribute positively toward the coming High. I look forward to being part of the new GI Generation, fighting for and subsequently benefiting from massive civic improvements. I'm sick of following and ready to lead.

I predict (and hope) that the Green New Deal in the US will be the cornerstone of the High. This carries some obvious practical implications (say goodbye to oil and gas), but I'm curious if anyone has any thoughts on other aspects of the coming High that should be expected, and how Millennials can position themselves to come out the tail end of the Crisis ready to rebuild society.

One example of what I'm talking about related to the Green New Deal would be the increased reliance on electricity (for car charging, home heating, and so on), and therefore the increased pressure on existing electric grid infrastructure. Some of the grid infrastructure we rely on today is nearing a century old, and occasional power outages simply will not be acceptable anymore. Is a complete North American electric grid re-construction effort undertaken over many years and creating millions of public sector construction jobs (in addition to all the green energy generation jobs) something we can expect? Just one thought. 

Another thought that is less practical and more social is how to better unite as a culture and as a generation. I'm becoming exhausted at anything that is even remotely divisive or even corrective. Even at work, when colleagues disagree about the best approach to do something and it basically winds up never getting done or getting done in a half-assed way to be a "compromise"... I feel like one person or a small team should just do the job, get it done, and so what if it's not perfect? At least it would've accomplished something. We can improve it as we go in real time, in response to real demand, rather than trying to make something perfect from the get-go and ultimately self-sabotaging. I can't wait until I am able to make more executive decisions at work. Especially when in the simplest terms, everyone has the same goals -- it's only the minutiae that people squabble over.

I'm curious to hear anyone else's thoughts on acting pre-seasonally or preparing for the end of a Crisis and beginning of a High. Thanks!

[pbrower2a]

1. Ditch the status symbols. They convince nobody, and they are often expensive to maintain while creating no more effect than clutter (which itself is tacky).

2. Paying for stuff in storage (unless you intend to sell it or use it, as in a business, or the item is simply an object of seasonal use) indicates that you have too much stuff.

3. Start saving. By not buying status symbols that impress nobody you will have more funds. Saving allows the creation of wealth and jobs through investment in plant and equipment. You don't need the latest electronic goodies when the older stuff will do (or is even available or serviceable). I'm not telling you to stick with something grossly obsolete such as a computer that no longer has technical support, a VHS recorder, or a CRT TV.

4. If you are young, then limit your possessions (for now at least) to what you can keep in a car. For now the tend toward even tinier apartments and having to share those with unrelated people to meet the high cost of renting in the Landlord's Paradise that is any part of America with a semblance of vibrancy... well, what you can keep in a car might be as much as you can keep with you until America starts becoming less regional in wealth and poverty.

5. Because we are not yet out of the Crisis Era, it behooves all of us to learn to make the best out of bad situations. COVID-19 is a genuine Crisis event, and it could still kill twice as many people as it has killed already.

6. Ditch all fads which originate in the Unraveling. If it is good, as in cultural attainment as in cinema, then fine.

7. Prepare for a life in which most entertainment comes online. That means music, books, and even art.

8. Live for experiences -- not possessions. A possession will have to be extremely interesting in itself (maybe an objet d'art, a fossil, or an artifact) to draw attention. You will be more interesting if you can talk about your vacation experiences, especially if those come with interesting video effects. It is great to not be a bore. (OK, I don't want to hear about how plastered you got in Chicago, especially since there are far better things to do in Chicago, and I don;t care to hear about slot machines in Vegas).

9. Choose a life pattern that relies less upon fossil fuel (unless you are a truck driver, auto mechanic, refinery worker, etc.) .

10. Be a good listener. You can't learn much from talking unless you can get others to respond with something interesting or enriching.

11. Recognize the virtue of small business, at least in retailing. Manufacturer's Suggested List Price is higher than Wal*Mart , but if you dislike what you get at Wal*Mart because buying it makes you think yourself an astute shopper, the 'bargain' is likely to end up in a landfill. Liking what you get matters more than getting it on the cheap.

12. If you hold tight to religious or ethnic bigotry -- then give it up. You will lose nothing.

[sbarrera]

This is a great thread idea.

I always thought that one advantage of knowing S&H theory was being better prepared for the changes to come.

To make it through the 4T, I think the main thing you need is a support network. A 4T is a time of gathering and reassertion of community values, so you want to make sure you are part of a community. The ones who will suffer the most in this 4T are the rootless and dispossesd (think of all those unfortunate refugees on the US southern border). This is an especially meaningful warning for Generation X. If you have a community to belong it in this 4T, you will come out better in the 1T.

As for surviving Cold Civil War II, well clearly the key is to be on the winning side. So far in American history the progressive side has won every conflict, and I think it will work out that way this time as well.

[pbrower2a]

(11-19-2020, 05:00 PM)sbarrera Wrote: This is a great thread idea.

I always thought that one advantage of knowing S&H theory was being better prepared for the changes to come.

To make it through the 4T, I think the main thing you need is a support network. A 4T is a time of gathering and reassertion of community values, so you want to make sure you are part of a community. The ones who will suffer the most in this 4T are the rootless and dispossesd (think of all those unfortunate refugees on the US southern border). This is an especially meaningful warning for Generation X. If you have a community to belong it in this 4T, you will come out better in the 1T.

As for surviving Cold Civil War II, well clearly the key is to be on the winning side. So far in American history the progressive side has won every conflict, and I think it will work out that way this time as well.

With Asperger's, and stranded in a community ill suited to my character (I think like a "coastal elitist" but live in a hick town), the COVID-19 lockdowns (we are going into the second one) has shown how shaky my mental health can be. Getting along in a hick town means accepting its limitations as a blessing; life may be simpler in allowing fewer options, but it is more complex in human relationships. Happiness devolves to having a solid family life and being heavily involved in religious, civic, or fraternal organizations. Maybe I should have joined the Masonic Lodge that my father and grandfather were in? Maybe I need to find a church even if I have big questions about theology... like "Why would God send people to Hell for failing to accept the Trinity?" "Do I really believe in God if I can't accept the bosh in the first nine chapters of Genesis?" 

I never realized how much my parents covered for me... maybe too much for my good. Now they are no more, and I only have nightmares involving them. I ended up broke -- and emotionally wrecked. 

But if that is bad... being the victim of malignant decisions of a dictatorial leader (and Trump is the most despotic President that we have ever had)  is far worse. "They're bringing crime, they're bringing drugs... and some of them might be good people!"... that's ugly. I'm about half German in ancestry and I know where that leads. If we really did have to stop an 'invasion' of illegal aliens, many of whom are fleeing economic nightmares that result from American addicts supplying the revenue for drug traffickers taking over national economies. (One thing that goes with Asperger's is a complete lack of empathy for addicts and alcoholics... and you may have seen my Modest Proposal about what to do with the children of meth fiends. Piecing back together what I lost will be difficult. 

Quote:From what I know about these people, they really do believe in family; they don't have much else. But I would give them citizenship under one condition: that they adopt the kids who will be taken away from meth fiends and opiate addicts, and treat them like their children. The kids will learn Spanish, which really is a good thing to learn (bilingual people are better at acquiring language skills). With even a modest level of work ethic, these Hispanic families will establish a better model in a work ethic. So what do the kids of meth fiends and opiate addicts have to lose?  

     
We need policies that promote human goodness, rational thought, stewardship of assets (environmental as well as financial), and overall caution. None of that describes Donald Trump. Trump exemplifies all that is potentially wrong with an Idealist except for (as was so with the slave-owning planters before the Civil War) that his exploitation is charity: selfishness, arrogance, and ruthlessness. 
With the Boom Generation, mine can no longer get its way without qualification, the strongest of our factions at the time setting the agenda for the rest of America. We are still too numerous and even talented to ignore, but other generations will choose what part of the Boomer universe they want influencing them. The more erudite, visionary, and principled among us will be useful.  Trump is none of those and never will be.

[Mickey123]

(11-19-2020, 05:00 PM)sbarrera Wrote: As for surviving Cold Civil War II, well clearly the key is to be on the winning side. So far in American history the progressive side has won every conflict, and I think it will work out that way this time as well.

That's because you're defining progressive values as the values which won out. 

In the early 1900s, progressives were in favor of Prohibition, and opposed to blacks voting.  They were in favor of literacy tests to be able to vote.  These policies failed over time, and so are no longer defined as being progressive.

It's easy to say you're always on the winning side when you change your beliefs to match whichever side won.  Many socialists would have defined themselves as being progressive.  If the U.S. had a socialist revolution some time last century, you would say that once again, progressives won the conflict.  As this didn't happen, progressives ended up siding with capitalism, with lots of social programs.

[Mickey123]

(11-19-2020, 03:33 PM)LTsmith Wrote: I'm curious to hear anyone else's thoughts on acting pre-seasonally or preparing for the end of a Crisis and beginning of a High. Thanks!

The difficulty in preparing at this point is that we don't know where this Crisis is going, we don't know what the final conflict is going to be and how it's going to turn out.

By late next year, the covid-19 pandemic will be mostly over in 1st world countries.  We will have vaccinated enough of our population to have herd immunity, and social distancing will end and people will try to go back to normal.  But the crisis will be nowhere close to over, and there is no predicting exactly what will come next.  Some massive global war involving China and Russia is possible.  A U.S. civil war is possible, some attempted fascist takeover or socialist revolution is possible.

Afterwards, it may turn out to be a really bad idea to have been vocally on the wrong side.  Socialist revolutions in particular generally result in massive purges with millions killed, including anyone who opposed socialism, who might have opposed socialism, or who supported the wrong kind of socialism.  A fascist takeover could result in the expulsion of large numbers of minorities of various sorts.  War against China could mean it might be a bad time to be racially Chinese in the west.

Highs are culturally conservative and conformist.  But we don't know what values the High will be conforming to, so it would be difficult to predict how to position yourself.

I suggest strongly protecting your anonymity online.  This way any statements you're making today which might turn out to be "wrong" 10 years from now won't be traced back to you.

[pbrower2a]

(11-22-2020, 12:24 AM)Mickey123 Wrote:

(11-19-2020, 03:33 PM)LTsmith Wrote: I'm curious to hear anyone else's thoughts on acting pre-seasonally or preparing for the end of a Crisis and beginning of a High. Thanks!

The difficulty in preparing at this point is that we don't know where this Crisis is going, we don't know what the final conflict is going to be and how it's going to turn out.

By late next year, the covid-19 pandemic will be mostly over in 1st world countries.  We will have vaccinated enough of our population to have herd immunity, and social distancing will end and people will try to go back to normal.  But the crisis will be nowhere close to over, and there is no predicting exactly what will come next.  Some massive global war involving China and Russia is possible.  A U.S. civil war is possible, some attempted fascist takeover or socialist revolution is possible.

Because people do not have the dubious privilege of watching loved ones die of COVID-19 as they do of seeing people die of Parkinsonism, cancer, congestive heart failure, lupus, and cirrhosis (OK, that uncle by marriage was a buffoon who who talked about where he went and "oh, did I get drunk there"... if I went to an interesting place, then the last thing I would want to do is get drunk), the full horror of the Trump plague has yet to sink in. It will as people who worked in the slaughterhouses that COVID-19 made out of hospitals start telling stories of people dying alone and helpless. The death toll is already similar to that of a Crisis-era war, and nobody is going to get any purple hearts for dying of COVID-19.  

Russia, India, Iran, the United States, and Brazil are among the countries most ravaged by COVID-19. Plagues are excellent defenses against invasions. One of the more memorable lines from the original Star Trek series had a Klingon saying

"Only fools fight in a burning house" 

I see Joe Biden less likely to bungle his way into a war, let alone start one, than Donald Trump.  We all have the responsibility to do the best that we can with what we have in a Crisis Era. In politics, anyone completely happy with the leadership is in the cult.  

Quote:Afterwards, it may turn out to be a really bad idea to have been vocally on the wrong side.  Socialist revolutions in particular generally result in massive purges with millions killed, including anyone who opposed socialism, who might have opposed socialism, or who supported the wrong kind of socialism.  A fascist takeover could result in the expulsion of large numbers of minorities of various sorts.  War against China could mean it might be a bad time to be racially Chinese in the west.

I hope that we have learned a lesson from our taste of "fascism light". Nixon may have been as competent a political leader and administrator in our history, but his morals took him down. Trump is much less competent and much more immoral than Nixon. Nixon won re-election in a 49-state landslide, and Trump went down in electoral defeat in a bid for a second term.  We should have taken that "grab 'em by the (pussycat)" quote seriously. If I am on a criminal trial as a juror, and some man grabbed a woman by her crotch without her consent solely for his gratification I would expect to convict the fellow of "criminal sexual conduct". That is good for a few years in a Michigan state prison. 

Morality matters greatly in leadership. Leaders need to be in the Adult role most of the time, the Parent role when consolation and  compassion are necessary... and the Child role rarely. Leaders must understand what can hurt feelings but must brush such off often. Servants and laborers have more freedom to be themselves. Leadership comes with certain privileges, but those have responsibilities attached. Privilege without responsibility implies that others have responsibilities without privileges. Who wants to be a serf of a rapacious, self-indulgent feudal lord?

... Part of the art of using the generational theory is to recognize what part of reality is the generational theory and what isn't. Some realities remain true irrespective of the time. Elites all decay in competence and bloat in demands as time passes. The capitalist on the make may be far better than his rapacious, irresponsible, self-indulgent heirs who, unlike the founder, have little connection to the reality of toil and hardship. At some point all elites lose whatever credibility they once had. For good reason the Medici and Borgia families have practically disappeared from leadership roles anywhere in Italy.  

Quote:Highs are culturally conservative and conformist.  But we don't know what values the High will be conforming to, so it would be difficult to predict how to position yourself.

Precisely. We do not know who will set the tone for the upcoming 1T. It's clear that America's Model Minorities have far more of a chance than America's white losers -- meth fiends, opiate addicts, and violent racists. Donald Trump went far in appealing to white Americans in economic distress and cultural marginalization. He also failed as President. I'm not saying that poor white people in unfortunate areas deserve to be smacked down; they have had plenty of that already. They have their work cut out for them, and the questionable achievements of Donald Trump on their behalf  have done them no good. They will likely have to take care of themselves; they have no real friends in our political system -- not fellow poor non-white people, and certainly not middle-class or upper-class white people.

Model minorities are the most vulnerable people in a Crisis Era, especially when a dictatorial regime has populist flavoring. Was there ever a better example of a model minority than German Jews?  How often need I say that there was nothing wrong with the German people between 1933 and 1945 that Judaism would not have solved. But if the society remains sane, model minorities are people to imitate -- at least for habits of education, career choices, and business formation. It would be far easier for white Anglo people to imitate the culture of the "Talented Tenth" of African-Americans or successful Latin-American populations who aren't particularly exotic except perhaps in appearance than East Asians or South Asians.   

Quote:I suggest strongly protecting your anonymity online.  This way any statements you're making today which might turn out to be "wrong" 10 years from now won't be traced back to you.

Most of us can count on being wrong about some of our predictions. I thought that Obama was going to be the New FDR.

[Bob Butler 54]

There seems to be little to no blip in the spiral of violence leading me to believe the red are going to be more violent.  Sure, a few bad cops and militias might try, but they are not doing well of late.  The military have made it clear they will not get involved.  The secret police have withdrawn in the face of local opposition.  The Proud Boys and Wolverine watchmen made their moves and were rebuffed.  Trump did enough wrong stuff that most understand why he lost, and I doubt they will start a revolution about it.  We will have to see who wins the conflict between the Republican factions, the fight for control of the base and the party.  That’s not my fight, but I don’t see the victor as winning anything but a remnant.  Trump is a looser.  No one has risen to take his place, but Trump looks likely to try to block whoever tries.  The establishment is discredited.  The true conservatives have not yet become competitive.  

I don’t anticipate a conservative faction being dominant through a crisis - high - awakening time interval.  The crisis is a time of resolving issues and taking decisive action.  The high settles the solutions down.  The awakening is when a new problem is highlighted by people who want to do something about it.  Is there room for conservatives there?  The unravelling will come eventually, but I have not yet got a clear picture of what the conflicts will be then.

The Marxists are not active in this crisis.  They are not one of the people who participated in the grand debate through the preceding unravelling.  They did not participate in a spiral of violence.  I do not anticipate a Marxist revolution.

China and Russia are major powers.  The major power have not become involved in crisis wars recently.  I am not certain about China.  Their culture underwent severe stress from the opium wars through Mao’s time.  They are very reluctant to return to a time of instability.  Yes, that time is fading from living memory, but it was long and it hurt.  Yet, their autocracy is clinging to power, and does not look to let go of that power easily.  A revolution may be necessary.  I see them reluctant to start it.  They are also reluctant to kill the golden goose.  They have established the upper hand in Hong Kong, but seem reluctant to launch the crushing final blow.

I am not thus too worried about protecting my anonymity.  Speaking loudly the progressive agenda and supporting the resolution of the crisis problems seems the thing to do.  Anticipating that the conservative values will fade again seems right.

[Warren Dew]

(11-19-2020, 03:33 PM)LTsmith Wrote: I am a 1989 Millennial in Canada and I'm more or less convinced that a cold civil war fueled by digital disinformation is coming south of the border within the next couple of years.

I don't have to do much, personally, to prepare for an outright civil American conflict up here in my snowy neck of the woods. My countryfolk have the privilege of being influenced by American culture but not directly impacted by its fallout. Yes, we have our share of problems as well, but not nearly at the same intensity.

What I *would* like to prepare for, however, is the High. Even before reading S&H, I've always been civic-minded. I would like to position myself and my family to take the best advantage of and contribute positively toward the coming High. I look forward to being part of the new GI Generation, fighting for and subsequently benefiting from massive civic improvements. I'm sick of following and ready to lead.

So you think Canada can avoid the Crisis War?  I doubt it.  Lindsey Shepard and Jordan Peterson are Canadians, after all.

The way to be well positioned to take advantage of a High, especially as a Civic, is to fight in the Crisis and survive it.

As for "massive civic improvements", they will just be lip service, like the big two page, very artistic, corporate ads in the 1970s with just the name of the conglomerate in small print in the corner.  I'm sure they meant something to GIs, but they were clearly just virtue signaling, not real.

[sbarrera]

(11-21-2020, 11:49 PM)Mickey123 Wrote:

(11-19-2020, 05:00 PM)sbarrera Wrote: As for surviving Cold Civil War II, well clearly the key is to be on the winning side. So far in American history the progressive side has won every conflict, and I think it will work out that way this time as well.

That's because you're defining progressive values as the values which won out. 

In the early 1900s, progressives were in favor of Prohibition, and opposed to blacks voting.  They were in favor of literacy tests to be able to vote.  These policies failed over time, and so are no longer defined as being progressive.

It's easy to say you're always on the winning side when you change your beliefs to match whichever side won.  Many socialists would have defined themselves as being progressive.  If the U.S. had a socialist revolution some time last century, you would say that once again, progressives won the conflict.  As this didn't happen, progressives ended up siding with capitalism, with lots of social programs.

You have a great point. It would be nice to see the major issues broken down in terms of when a party or faction started championing them, and when they became instituted or (as in the case of Prohibition) discarded. Maybe broken down in terms of social/moral issues vs. economic issues.

[pbrower2a]

(11-22-2020, 05:22 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: There seems to be little to no blip in the spiral of violence leading me to believe the red are going to be more violent.  Sure, a few bad cops and militias might try, but they are not doing well of late.  The military have made it clear they will not get involved.  The secret police have withdrawn in the face of local opposition.  The Proud Boys and Wolverine watchmen made their moves and were rebuffed.  Trump did enough wrong stuff that most understand why he lost, and I doubt they will start a revolution about it.  We will have to see who wins the conflict between the Republican factions, the fight for control of the base and the party.  That’s not my fight, but I don’t see the victor as winning anything but a remnant.  Trump is a loser.  No one has risen to take his place, but Trump looks likely to try to block whoever tries.  The establishment is discredited.  The true conservatives have not yet become competitive.

The Hard Right will try to offer a "new and improved" version of a troubled product, introduce a new marketing scheme, new pitch-people, or even a "new look". It's like the cancerweed industry offering 'innovative' cigarettes, new mystique to cigars, or even vaping. We can all be sure that the next semi-fascist that the current GOP will have very different personality, speech patterns, and mannerisms than Trump. Joni Ernst, just re-elected to the Senate, much younger, more rough-hewn, less headstrong, more learned (which is not tough to achieve against Trump), and less connected to any personal fortune than Trump, could be the one. Republican... hmmm... Lincoln split rails and she castrated hogs... is one that I could think of.

OK... it is time for conservatives to recognize a few things. Conservative pols have often won on more blatant shows of religious devotion, normal family life by the standard of the time, and respect for current (active-duty) and former (veteran) service-people than the liberal Democrat... and this time Joe Biden won that argument. If that is worth 5% of the vote, then that is more than the margin of the Biden victory. Biden had a Reagan-like campaign against Trump. Joe Biden is the devout Christian, he has been married twice but as the result of a tragic death of his first wife, and he makes clear his respect for military service.

I have had familiarity with Donald Trump from his early media-hugging... and I saw someone with whom I had no desire for any dealings. He always struck me as "all hat and no cattle". There was nothing erudite about him -- which is not to say that an oil wildcatter, a traveling salesman, or a successful day-trader must be erudite. For a high-level politician I want someone who knows how the system works and who can derive some relevant  lessons from history.

Quote:I don’t anticipate a conservative faction being dominant through a crisis - high - awakening time interval.  The crisis is a time of resolving issues and taking decisive action.  The high settles the solutions down.  The awakening is when a new problem is highlighted by people who want to do something about it.  Is there room for conservatives there?  The unravelling will come eventually, but I have not yet got a clear picture of what the conflicts will be then.

A reminder: Sir Winston Churchill, one of the most frequent models of a successful leader during a Great Crisis, was as conservative as one gets. Obviously Donald Trump is about as far from being Sir Winston Churchill as is possible except for being similarly ruthless. Churchill of course was brutally ruthless against an enemy that he could cast as Satan Incarnate. Recent political rivals in Labour? He recognized that they had as much stake in defeating Hitler as he did and saw them loyal to a far greater cause than a current majority in Parliament. There was nothing revolutionary about Churchill, and if he was admirable it was for standing up for old decencies well entrenched in the British political heritage. Churchill made clear that when his side there would be no further cause for fighting. Italy, Japan, and the German Federal Republic* haven't invaded any other countries in just over 75 years and seem unlikely to do so.  Churchill let the scientists do their job with no impairment other than monitoring them for success, let the British intelligence services operate with minimal interference, and put the consumer economy in hiatus for the duration.

This said, when conservatism becomes a cover for superstition, exploitation, inequity, and corruption it needs a fresh redefinition.

Conservatives might as well put aside their enmity toward Barack Obama. Their next President is likely to act more like Barack Obama than like Donald Trump. All that kept Barack Obama from being a fine conservative President was that he wasn't especially conservative. (That might be like saying that Tchaikovsky's opera Yevgeny Onyegin is a fine Italian opera except for being in Russian). I can't yet see any Eisenhower-like war hero emerging from this Crisis, but I can recognize similarities of demeanor, conduct, and achievement in Eisenhower and Obama. The Obama and now Biden constituencies, except for farmers and ranchers, seem much like those for Eisenhower.

Joe Biden will be more effective at erasing the personal perversity of Donald Trump than at undoing the 'intellectual' direction of conservatism. The shock-jock style of the Boomer Right needs to go, as it is spent. Trump's 'bad Boomer' sexuality is simply sick and unsupportable. Maybe we will be headed into an era in which the nuclear family (with an allowance for same-sex couples that will stick) is a norm and an expectation. The practice of men dumping their wives when they no longer resemble the Playboy Playmate of the Year of the time (that image changes little except for some 'inclusions' of non-white women) in favor of a new model as they exchange a six-year-old car when they tire of it and want something 'sexier'. The inequity that has bloomed into a stinking mess during the neoliberal era will become discredited. Quack science and pseudo-history will have to be recognized for their worthlessness and even harm.

Most people will be satisfied after the Crisis is over with following the basic rules (do your job, eschew crime, avoid overt bigotry) in return for a modestly-comfortable and secure life for themselves and their loved ones. Rogues will be out in the cold. Taxes will be higher on the elites; executive competition will not be so lavish. I expect tax laws that favor small business over bureaucratic behemoths that have been more adept at shedding jobs than creating them. Scrupulous behavior will be the expectation in commerce.  The bad behavior that accumulates in a 2T (Donald Trump's sex life and shady business dealings) and a 3T (reckless and harmful -- or even irrelevant fads) will go into the 'dustbin of history', much as happened with much of the cultural detritus of the Roaring Twenties going into the last Crisis Era. (OK... we still listen to George Gershwin and find the better silent movies still watchable, but we don't do wing-walking or flagpole-sitting). 

We are going to see more standardization of undergraduate education because it will be expanded as a norm. K-12 is inadequate preparation for the complexity of the content of the World Wide Web and the moral challenges of an often-depraved mass low culture, let alone for the scammers and shysters in politics and commerce.  We need more learning in the liberal arts so that we can know how to live in the world without scarcity that is nigh.

Quote:The Marxists are not active in this crisis.  They are not one of the people who participated in the grand debate through the preceding unravelling.  They did not participate in a spiral of violence.  I do not anticipate a Marxist revolution.

Marxism is obsolete. Capitalism does not need the extreme inequality and suffering that Marx attributes to capitalism to make it serve capitalists at the expense of everyone else. Marxists fail to recognize the validity of markets not so much in producing  goods and services but also in refusing to produce goods and services that people do not want but that devour huge amounts of natural resources and leave much environmental damage behind. Capitalists do not have a death wish, and are more likely to give workers a stake in the system than to risk being the sorts of people who fit the Marxist stereotype of capitalists whom none could like except each other (and I am not sure even of that).

The really-bad guys in capitalist societies are mirror-image Marxists, the sorts of people who make life miserable for working people for their own opulent splendor and sybaritic indulgence. Such people do far more to foster the rise of Communism than do alienated intellectuals who get an introduction to Marxist literature and become firebrands.

Quote:China and Russia are major powers.  The major power have not become involved in crisis wars recently.  I am not certain about China.  Their culture underwent severe stress from the opium wars through Mao’s time.  They are very reluctant to return to a time of instability.  Yes, that time is fading from living memory, but it was long and it hurt.  Yet, their autocracy is clinging to power, and does not look to let go of that power easily.  A revolution may be necessary.  I see them reluctant to start it.  They are also reluctant to kill the golden goose.  They have established the upper hand in Hong Kong, but seem reluctant to launch the crushing final blow.

Russia did have trends toward democracy before Putin and could return. China has had practically no experience with democracy. I see the Chinese people reasonably trustworthy with democracy if they ever experience it. Will they? This is about like saying that the Detroit Lions will win the Superbowl some year.

Quote:I am not thus too worried about protecting my anonymity.  Speaking loudly the progressive agenda and supporting the resolution of the crisis problems seems the thing to do.  Anticipating that the conservative values will fade again seems right.

We are far safer now that Joe Biden is about to become President than when we still had legitimate fear of a second term of Donald Trump. We are in a Crisis, and America needs significant reforms  to recover what was legitimately great in America. Most of what is great is the result of Enlightenment and Humanist reforms. Golden Ages in history are myths. After being threatened with a gay-bashing incident, I have no desire to return to bans on same-sex marriage. Women have shown that they are as capable of high-level contributions to true greatness as men, and I would not throw those away to have some dubious security that comes with male dominance. I would not like to have been black in "Kukluxistan". All that may have been better in the past is being young again, opportunities that one cast off for no good reason or that real estate was incredibly cheap Way Back When. But that often comes with some problems. The longshoreman who worked long hours and could have an apartment with a view of the water, a view now precious, didn't have the time in which to appreciate it... and was likely dead by age 50, worn out or crippled by his work.

The world in which I live has suddenly become quieter and even more civilized now that those silly red MAGA hats have disappeared. COVID-19 is still killing in large numbers. America is 'quieter' by 260,000 people due to that disease, and that is the wrong sort of quiet.

* Commie East Germany did participate in the Warsaw Pact's invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968, which counts little because the DDR was a puppet state. The German Federal Republic disapproved of that invasion.

[Bob Butler 54]

(11-21-2020, 11:49 PM)Mickey123 Wrote:

(11-19-2020, 05:00 PM)sbarrera Wrote: As for surviving Cold Civil War II, well clearly the key is to be on the winning side. So far in American history the progressive side has won every conflict, and I think it will work out that way this time as well.

That's because you're defining progressive values as the values which won out. 

In the early 1900s, progressives were in favor of Prohibition, and opposed to blacks voting.  They were in favor of literacy tests to be able to vote.  These policies failed over time, and so are no longer defined as being progressive.

It's easy to say you're always on the winning side when you change your beliefs to match whichever side won.  Many socialists would have defined themselves as being progressive.  If the U.S. had a socialist revolution some time last century, you would say that once again, progressives won the conflict.  As this didn't happen, progressives ended up siding with capitalism, with lots of social programs.

Keeping the vote to those that could afford a good education and to whites was never progressive. As it turned out the Marxists were autocratic, against democracy, and could not be progressive no matter how progressive the theory said the ought to be.

My grandfather was abusive towards my grandmother when he was drunk. Before prohibition, males drinking their salary was a traditional response to the worst abuses of capitalism. I can see why a lot of people wanted to try the great experiment. Substance abuse is still a problem, but keeping it to a manageable level seems to have required prohibition for a time. The problem is you can’t totally ban something the public badly wants.

The arrow of progress - equality, human rights, democracy - is real enough. People who pretend that you are being progressive while going against those things are delusional.

[jleagans]

(11-19-2020, 03:33 PM)LTsmith Wrote: Hello, long time lurker, first time poster here.

Been thinking a lot lately about how to prepare for 1) the coming Crisis climax, and 2) the coming High. In The Fourth Turning, S&H make reference to acting or behaving "pre-seasonally" -- that is, in a way that reflects or demands the nature or needs of the upcoming turning. (I think I've got that term right; please correct if I'm wrong. Too lazy to check the book.) Indeed, this is part of what is needed to bring it on. And it's not necessarily a deliberate choice in all cases; many typical members of a generation act this way based purely on instinct.

I am a 1989 Millennial in Canada and I'm more or less convinced that a cold civil war fueled by digital disinformation is coming south of the border within the next couple of years.

I don't have to do much, personally, to prepare for an outright civil American conflict up here in my snowy neck of the woods. My countryfolk have the privilege of being influenced by American culture but not directly impacted by its fallout. Yes, we have our share of problems as well, but not nearly at the same intensity.

What I *would* like to prepare for, however, is the High. Even before reading S&H, I've always been civic-minded. I would like to position myself and my family to take the best advantage of and contribute positively toward the coming High. I look forward to being part of the new GI Generation, fighting for and subsequently benefiting from massive civic improvements. I'm sick of following and ready to lead.

I predict (and hope) that the Green New Deal in the US will be the cornerstone of the High. This carries some obvious practical implications (say goodbye to oil and gas), but I'm curious if anyone has any thoughts on other aspects of the coming High that should be expected, and how Millennials can position themselves to come out the tail end of the Crisis ready to rebuild society.

One example of what I'm talking about related to the Green New Deal would be the increased reliance on electricity (for car charging, home heating, and so on), and therefore the increased pressure on existing electric grid infrastructure. Some of the grid infrastructure we rely on today is nearing a century old, and occasional power outages simply will not be acceptable anymore. Is a complete North American electric grid re-construction effort undertaken over many years and creating millions of public sector construction jobs (in addition to all the green energy generation jobs) something we can expect? Just one thought. 

Another thought that is less practical and more social is how to better unite as a culture and as a generation. I'm becoming exhausted at anything that is even remotely divisive or even corrective. Even at work, when colleagues disagree about the best approach to do something and it basically winds up never getting done or getting done in a half-assed way to be a "compromise"... I feel like one person or a small team should just do the job, get it done, and so what if it's not perfect? At least it would've accomplished something. We can improve it as we go in real time, in response to real demand, rather than trying to make something perfect from the get-go and ultimately self-sabotaging. I can't wait until I am able to make more executive decisions at work. Especially when in the simplest terms, everyone has the same goals -- it's only the minutiae that people squabble over.

I'm curious to hear anyone else's thoughts on acting pre-seasonally or preparing for the end of a Crisis and beginning of a High. Thanks!

Great post!  It is an exemplary millennial sentiment lol.  Prophet gen prioritizes "principles" and ends up just forcing more and more conflict.  Hero gen does the opposite and stand for "community" , but in doing so compromises too much on principles and progress.  So I 100% agree that were going to see a LOT of stuff getting done soon as we break the Booomer stranglehold on society and gridlock. 

I would actually argue that the High may already have started, my instinct is that Trump is the core manifestation of the crisis and if he never reasserts real power we'll have made it through the turning (see my post below this one saying election day was the 4T end).  Juries still out as there is tons of ways the crisis hasn't even begun to play out yet, but I'm trying to be optimistic. 

Green new deal is still too vague,  if the Democrats can win in Georgia and  push hard over the next two years we can theoretically lock in the new "party era" and basically end the modern republican party.  

You did make me think though of a topic I don't think I've brought to the boards here: tech cycles.  It seems clear that one of the "overlays" to the generational cycles, in addition to the interest rate cycles and the party era cycles, is a tech cycle (I heavily correlate this to the interest rate phenomena).

One innovation that drives progress through an entire saeculum.

American Saeculum I:  Cotton Gin

American Saeculum 2 (1865-1945):  Steam engine, leading us to world war, cars and airplanes.

American Saeculum 3 (1945-Present):  Microchip  leading us to social media, internet.

As for the next one?  I'm with you and think that it will be energy related.  A major breakthrough in energy will likely come as we are solving for climate change, and "infinite" energy would remake society just as much as any of the other innovations.

[Mickey123]

(11-23-2020, 01:45 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Keeping the vote to those that could afford a good education and to whites was never progressive.  As it turned out the Marxists were autocratic, against democracy, and could not be progressive no matter how progressive the theory said the ought to be.

My grandfather was abusive towards my grandmother when he was drunk.  Before prohibition, males drinking their salary was a traditional response to the worst abuses of capitalism.  I can see why a lot of people wanted to try the great experiment.  Substance abuse is still a problem, but keeping it to a manageable level seems to have required prohibition for a time.  The problem is you can’t totally ban something the public badly wants.

The arrow of progress - equality, human rights, democracy - is real enough.  People who pretend that you are being progressive while going against those things are delusional.

As I said above, you're simply defining "progressive" to match the values progressives hold today, which means you don't have to take responsibility for failed progressive values and actions in the past, and you can claim to have always been on the right side of history.

Prohibition didn't keep substance abuse to a manageable level.  Its only value was in showing what a complete failure that it was.  In fact, prohibition resulted in the utter disappearance of the temperance movement in the United States.  The temperance movement was a major movement in society, wherein large portions of religious institutions and government officials regularly preached against alcohol, and considered alcohol a great evil.  All of the temperance organizations disbanded when Prohibition was passed, but they never re-formed when Prohibition was repealed.  So suddenly society had a blind eye to the negative effects of alcohol.

Socialism has been a disastrous failure worldwide, but we only know that because we saw it in action on a wide scale.  The left has been flirting with socialism for well over a century, while conservatives fought tooth and nail to stomp it out wherever they could.

Essentially, conservatives in any era tend to resist change, while various types of progressives and radicals and others push to try to introduce new ideas to improve society in their eyes.  This means that successful positive changes were always resisted by conservatives, but it also means that terrible disastrous new ideas were also resisted by conservatives.

[Bob Butler 54]

(11-24-2020, 12:40 AM)Mickey123 Wrote:

(11-23-2020, 01:45 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Keeping the vote to those that could afford a good education and to whites was never progressive.  As it turned out the Marxists were autocratic, against democracy, and could not be progressive no matter how progressive the theory said the ought to be.

My grandfather was abusive towards my grandmother when he was drunk.  Before prohibition, males drinking their salary was a traditional response to the worst abuses of capitalism.  I can see why a lot of people wanted to try the great experiment.  Substance abuse is still a problem, but keeping it to a manageable level seems to have required prohibition for a time.  The problem is you can’t totally ban something the public badly wants.

The arrow of progress - equality, human rights, democracy - is real enough.  People who pretend that you are being progressive while going against those things are delusional.

As I said above, you're simply defining "progressive" to match the values progressives hold today, which means you don't have to take responsibility for failed progressive values and actions in the past, and you can claim to have always been on the right side of history.

Prohibition didn't keep substance abuse to a manageable level.  Its only value was in showing what a complete failure that it was.  In fact, prohibition resulted in the utter disappearance of the temperance movement in the United States.  The temperance movement was a major movement in society, wherein large portions of religious institutions and government officials regularly preached against alcohol, and considered alcohol a great evil.  All of the temperance organizations disbanded when Prohibition was passed, but they never re-formed when Prohibition was repealed.  So suddenly society had a blind eye to the negative effects of alcohol.

Socialism has been a disastrous failure worldwide, but we only know that because we saw it in action on a wide scale.  The left has been flirting with socialism for well over a century, while conservatives fought tooth and nail to stomp it out wherever they could.

Essentially, conservatives in any era tend to resist change, while various types of progressives and radicals and others push to try to introduce new ideas to improve society in their eyes.  This means that successful positive changes were always resisted by conservatives, but it also means that terrible disastrous new ideas were also resisted by conservatives.

Arrow of Progress. Democracy, human rights, equality.

Yes, the progressives or people calling themselves progressives have advocated other things. Some have merit. Some don't. Anyway, if you are an advocate of autocracy, brutality and the elites, you can't call yourself progressive. Today, you are as like as not a Trump fan.

Arrow of Progress. Democracy, human rights, equality.

The thing is, the Agricultural Age was horrible. Come the crisis, we are generally taking a step further from the old ways when a privileged hereditary class controlled the military and owned the land, which was the primary means of production at the time. Naturally, the elites resist. Since democracy is a big part of some major powers, the elites have to ally with some populist movement in order to contest for power. It is often racist or religious. At any crisis, it is obvious which set of values is conservative, elitist, and doomed to collapse.

Arrow of Progress. Democracy, human rights, equality.

[beechnut79]

(11-23-2020, 01:45 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(11-21-2020, 11:49 PM)Mickey123 Wrote:

(11-19-2020, 05:00 PM)sbarrera Wrote: As for surviving Cold Civil War II, well clearly the key is to be on the winning side. So far in American history the progressive side has won every conflict, and I think it will work out that way this time as well.

That's because you're defining progressive values as the values which won out. 

In the early 1900s, progressives were in favor of Prohibition, and opposed to blacks voting.  They were in favor of literacy tests to be able to vote.  These policies failed over time, and so are no longer defined as being progressive.

It's easy to say you're always on the winning side when you change your beliefs to match whichever side won.  Many socialists would have defined themselves as being progressive.  If the U.S. had a socialist revolution some time last century, you would say that once again, progressives won the conflict.  As this didn't happen, progressives ended up siding with capitalism, with lots of social programs.

Keeping the vote to those that could afford a good education and to whites was never progressive.  As it turned out the Marxists were autocratic, against democracy, and could not be progressive no matter how progressive the theory said the ought to be.

My grandfather was abusive towards my grandmother when he was drunk.  Before prohibition, males drinking their salary was a traditional response to the worst abuses of capitalism.  I can see why a lot of people wanted to try the great experiment.  Substance abuse is still a problem, but keeping it to a manageable level seems to have required prohibition for a time.  The problem is you can’t totally ban something the public badly wants.

The arrow of progress - equality, human rights, democracy - is real enough.  People who pretend that you are being progressive while going against those things are delusional.

Paragraph by paragraph response:

P1: Another example is that in the New Deal universal healthcare and to a large extent civil rights were pushed out the back door because it was felt that the whole deal might not pass if too much was included.

P2:  in some circles males drinking their salary existed posi-prohibition as well. Theme of many mostly country songs of the time.  Great example is Loretta Lynn’s “Don’t Come Home a Drinkin’ with Lovin’ On Your Mind”.  The is was largely before too many women had the financial and political clout to do something about it. And where your last sentence is concerned, then why is sex work still illegal nearly everywhere? Prohibition of this activity has been every bit the failure that it was with liquor nearly a century ago.

P3: All I can think of here is the recent situation in California, where Prop 22 passed largely because gig workers themselves voted in favor because of fear they would lose the flexibility to make their own schedules if they were made employees.

Add-on:  Today is the birthday of one of the most notorious perpetrators of violence against women, Ted Bundy.  Might it be a good idea to make this date, November 24, Violence Against Women Awareness Day?

[pbrower2a]

(11-24-2020, 02:28 PM)beechnut79 Wrote:

(11-23-2020, 01:45 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(11-21-2020, 11:49 PM)Mickey123 Wrote:

(11-19-2020, 05:00 PM)sbarrera Wrote: As for surviving Cold Civil War II, well clearly the key is to be on the winning side. So far in American history the progressive side has won every conflict, and I think it will work out that way this time as well.

That's because you're defining progressive values as the values which won out. 

In the early 1900s, progressives were in favor of Prohibition, and opposed to blacks voting.  They were in favor of literacy tests to be able to vote.  These policies failed over time, and so are no longer defined as being progressive.

It's easy to say you're always on the winning side when you change your beliefs to match whichever side won.  Many socialists would have defined themselves as being progressive.  If the U.S. had a socialist revolution some time last century, you would say that once again, progressives won the conflict.  As this didn't happen, progressives ended up siding with capitalism, with lots of social programs.

Keeping the vote to those that could afford a good education and to whites was never progressive.  As it turned out the Marxists were autocratic, against democracy, and could not be progressive no matter how progressive the theory said the ought to be.

My grandfather was abusive towards my grandmother when he was drunk.  Before prohibition, males drinking their salary was a traditional response to the worst abuses of capitalism.  I can see why a lot of people wanted to try the great experiment.  Substance abuse is still a problem, but keeping it to a manageable level seems to have required prohibition for a time.  The problem is you can’t totally ban something the public badly wants.

The arrow of progress - equality, human rights, democracy - is real enough.  People who pretend that you are being progressive while going against those things are delusional.

Paragraph by paragraph response:

P1: Another example is that in the New Deal universal healthcare and to a large extent civil rights were pushed out the back door because it was felt that the whole deal might not pass if too much was included.

The basic "never let the perfect be the enemy of the good". Ask for too much and you may get nothing. On civil rights: consider that the 1930's had something other than the New Deal going on. The KKK was still a reality, and it could have revived easily. It could have developed connections to people in very high places... as in Berchtesgaden.  

Quote:P2:  in some circles males drinking their salary existed posi-prohibition as well. Theme of many mostly country songs of the time.  Great example is Loretta Lynn’s “Don’t Come Home a Drinkin’ with Lovin’ On Your Mind”.  The is was largely before too many women had the financial and political clout to do something about it. And where your last sentence is concerned, then why is sex work still illegal nearly everywhere? Prohibition of this activity has been every bit the failure that it was with liquor nearly a century ago.

Drunks are lousy lovers. To be sure, there's not much anyone does well while drunk. The only thing that alcohol does to facilitate sex is to take away inhibitions or make someone unable to resist sex. I would want to do sex  without being numbed, getting to feel it in full.

Quote:P3: All I can think of here is the recent situation in California, where Prop 22 passed largely because gig workers themselves voted in favor because of fear they would lose the flexibility to make their own schedules if they were made employees.

Some people like the flexibility of gig work. If I can work remote, then maybe I can do a little more regional exploring. 

Quote:Add-on:  Today is the birthday of one of the most notorious perpetrators of violence against women, Ted Bundy.  Might it be a good idea to make this date, November 24, Violence Against Women Awareness Day?

Too close to Thanksgiving.  Otherwise a good idea. Any man who beats or abuses a woman isn't much of a man.

[Tim Randal Walker]

George Gershwin is an interesting example. Some talented people-due to their birthdates-may have a creative phase during a 3T. So, despite the over all tone of a 3T, we may see some worth while cultural material appear in an otherwise undistinguished turning. Good enough to be remembered much later.

[mamabug]

As a Nomad, I plan to prepare for the High by stocking up on the alcohol I will sit on my porch and drink while mourning the Unraveling that I will not see again.

[Camz]

As an Artist, I plan to prepare for the High by investing in big skirts and wholesome family-friendly entertainment, treat my Nomad parents and their peers with extra generosity and care (I hope to numb their pain), and do whatever Millennials want me to but be ready to betray them for their kids' ideas whenever the time comes.